Week 17 NFL Upset Alert: Denver's Collapse Continues
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville
Bad Reason To Like Jacksonville
Around this time every year, bettors routinely reason that a team is worth investing in because "it needs to win."
This thinking is awful because the implication that a team will be more motivated because it has a chance of making the playoffs relies on a very narrow conception of reasons why a team might be motivated.
Carolina, despite being eliminated from playoff contention, is clearly still motivated.
In its past two games, the Panthers defeated the playoff-hopeful Falcons and played the playoff-hopeful Packers competitively, covering the spread but coming up short of winning.
Despite having a playoff spot to fight for, Jacksonville is in meltdown mode.
The Jaguars enter Sunday's game on four-game SU and ATS losing streaks.
They lost at home to Cincinnati, in Cleveland, at home to Baltimore, and in Tampa Bay.
Opposing Quarterbacks
During Jacksonville's four-game losing streak, opposing quarterbacks are thriving.
It's hard to blame the Jaguars for struggling to contain Baltimore's Lamar Jackson.
But there is no reason why any professional defense should allow Cincinnati's backup quarterback Jake Browning to complete 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown.
Most recently, Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns.
If Jacksonville isn't blowing coverages altogether like it did three times in Cleveland, its defenders are failing to communicate and finding other ways to get beat.
Its pass defense has been so bad that even when opposing offenses fail to run the ball well, like Tampa Bay's did, they are still putting up 30 points.
Bryce Young
Before last week, the argument for Jacksonville would have emphasized Carolina quarterback Bryce Young's lack of productivity.
But Young is showing his improved playmaking skills.
He exceeded 300 yards passing last week against Green Bay, showing that the Panthers are capable of scoring 30 points.
Young is developing chemistry with other guys besides Adam Thielen. DJ Chark, for example, is a speedy threat whose big-play abilities complement Thielen's steadiness.
Trevor Lawrence
Whereas Green Bay still beat Carolina because its quarterback has developed and shown strong form and because its running game is strong, Jacksonville's offense boasts neither asset.
Its quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, has regressed.
His passer rating in his past three games was 65.2 in Cleveland, 83.9 against Baltimore, and 64 in Tampa Bay.
While struggling against the Browns and Ravens is fair, Tampa Bay with its leaky secondary ranks last in pass defense.
Carolina ranks fourth in pass defense, making it much too tough for Lawrence to handle at the moment.
Lawrence is struggling behind poor pass protection.
He is banged-up, dealing in recent weeks with a concussion and with shoulder and ankle issues that are keeping him from practicing.
The absence of one of his favorite wide receivers, Christian Kirk, doesn't help.
Travis Etienne
Jacksonville's offense would love to help Lawrence by relying on running back Travis Etienne against Carolina's run defense, which is the weakest part of the Panthers' defense.
But Etienne routinely struggles to reach three YPC in a given game.
As measured by run block win rate, Jacksonville's offensive line is one of the worst at run-blocking.
Carolina, on the other hand, is one week removed from displaying its third-best run defense performance in franchise history when it shut down Atlanta's more potent rush attack.
Takeaway
Jacksonville's meltdown will continue as Carolina's offense continues to develop by taking advantage of a porous secondary that even backup quarterbacks are exploiting.
The Jaguars offense is in bad shape because of its inefficient run game, its shoddy offensive line play, and its banged-up quarterback.
Carolina's strong pass defense will make the Jaguars rely on Etienne, who needs 18 carries just to exceed 50 rushing yards against bottom-feeder run defenses like the Colts.
Best Bet: Panthers +7 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +240 with Bet365
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Baltimore's Tough Spot
Baltimore's defense is tempting to like because it showed tremendous energy in Baltimore's 33-19 victory over mighty San Francisco.
However, the Ravens' defense is in a tough spot because it is hard to succeed against two great offenses in consecutive weeks.
Baltimore's schedule this year shows what I mean.
For example, the Ravens shut down CJ Stroud-led Houston in Week 1 before giving up 24 points to Cincinnati with its banged-up quarterback.
Later, they dominated Detroit, another impressive offense, before giving up 24 points to Arizona.
Then, they held Seattle to three points before giving up 33 points to Cleveland at home.
It is reasonable and justified to expect Baltimore to struggle against Miami.
What Will Happen
Miami will see that San Francisco found success against Baltimore with its ground game but foolishly abandoned it.
Expect the Dolphins, therefore, to hit the Ravens with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, who help their rush attack rank fifth in rushing yards per game.
When the Dolphins won in Baltimore last year 42-38, they relied especially on their pass attack.
Superstar Tyreek Hill, who caught nine passes for 99 yards last week, is healthy.
If Jaylen Waddle can't go, then his absence would be compensated for by the pass-catching prowess of speedy big-play threat Achane and perhaps also by the absence of banged-up safety Kyle Hamilton who is an important part of Baltimore's pass defense.
Miami's Improved Pass Defense
While the Dolphins allowed 38 points to Baltimore last year, it ranked 28th that year against the pass.
This year, it ranks tenth.
The Dolphins boast an excellent defensive line that excels at hitting and sacking the opposing quarterback.
With the addition of Jalen Ramsey, Miami's secondary is elite.
In the worst-case scenario, the absence of Waddle would cost Miami a few points, but Baltimore's offense will struggle much more severely given Miami's all-around defensive improvement.
The Dolphins have already displayed their comfort with limiting the rushing threat posed by mobile quarterbacks, as New York's Daniel Jones and Buffalo's Josh Allen failed to run for much against them.
Lamar Jackson is going to have to navigate Miami's secondary and pass rush without tight end Mark Andrews, whose services he benefited from in last year's game to the same extent that Miami benefited from Waddle's.
Best Bet: Dolphins +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Dolphins ML at +160 with Bet365
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver
Easton Stick
Now that he's had time to practice with his team, Chargers quarterback Easton Stick is developing.
In his team's near-upset win over Buffalo, Stick completed 23 of 33 passes for 215 yards.
He also achieved a 21-yard run.
His pass accuracy and mobility will both improve against a Denver defense whose pass rush is significantly less successful than Buffalo's – the Broncos rank 20th in sack rate.
They also rank 24th in pass defense, most recently allowing the likes of New England quarterback Bailey Zappe to outplay their own quarterback.
Stick would further benefit from the return of star wide receiver Keenan Allen.
Austin Ekeler
More than the Patriots could in their upset win over Denver last week, the Chargers can take advantage of the Broncos' vulnerable run defense that ranks second-to-last.
Austin Ekeler averaged 5.1 YPC in December 10 against Denver but only carried the ball ten times.
With Stick more comfortable, L.A.'s offense will use a two-dimensional attack to score with vastly greater facility.
Stronger Team
With its head coach fired, L.A. is also a tougher team than it was on December 10 when it lost 24-7.
Last week, the Chargers dominated the turnover battle, holding Buffalo's high-powered offense to below its season average in scoring.
The Chargers are playing motivated football, whereas, as a bonus for our play, the Broncos might feel gutted after having their playoff hopes nearly dashed entirely last week.
Russell Wilson
But even Denver's best offensive football is going to suffer with the poor play of Russell Wilson, who misreads coverages, misses open receivers, inflates his completion percentages with dump-offs that go nowhere, holds onto the ball so often that Denver ranks 27th at limiting its sacks per game, and is overall an unproductive quarterback.
The absence of concussed wide receiver Courtland Sutton would really hurt Wilson because Sutton is his best, if not his only, contested catch weapon.
L.A. allows about 30 fewer rush yards per game than Denver, so passing is something that the Broncos will need to do well, but the Chargers will benefit from facing a vastly easier pass test this week that has a weaker quarterback with a worse supporting cast.
Best Bet: Chargers +5.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Chargers ML at +205 at Bet365
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville
Bad Reason To Like Jacksonville
Around this time every year, bettors routinely reason that a team is worth investing in because "it needs to win."
This thinking is awful because the implication that a team will be more motivated because it has a chance of making the playoffs relies on a very narrow conception of reasons why a team might be motivated.
Carolina, despite being eliminated from playoff contention, is clearly still motivated.
In its past two games, the Panthers defeated the playoff-hopeful Falcons and played the playoff-hopeful Packers competitively, covering the spread but coming up short of winning.
Despite having a playoff spot to fight for, Jacksonville is in meltdown mode.
The Jaguars enter Sunday's game on four-game SU and ATS losing streaks.
They lost at home to Cincinnati, in Cleveland, at home to Baltimore, and in Tampa Bay.
Opposing Quarterbacks
During Jacksonville's four-game losing streak, opposing quarterbacks are thriving.
It's hard to blame the Jaguars for struggling to contain Baltimore's Lamar Jackson.
But there is no reason why any professional defense should allow Cincinnati's backup quarterback Jake Browning to complete 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown.
Most recently, Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns.
If Jacksonville isn't blowing coverages altogether like it did three times in Cleveland, its defenders are failing to communicate and finding other ways to get beat.
Its pass defense has been so bad that even when opposing offenses fail to run the ball well, like Tampa Bay's did, they are still putting up 30 points.
Bryce Young
Before last week, the argument for Jacksonville would have emphasized Carolina quarterback Bryce Young's lack of productivity.
But Young is showing his improved playmaking skills.
He exceeded 300 yards passing last week against Green Bay, showing that the Panthers are capable of scoring 30 points.
Young is developing chemistry with other guys besides Adam Thielen. DJ Chark, for example, is a speedy threat whose big-play abilities complement Thielen's steadiness.
Trevor Lawrence
Whereas Green Bay still beat Carolina because its quarterback has developed and shown strong form and because its running game is strong, Jacksonville's offense boasts neither asset.
Its quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, has regressed.
His passer rating in his past three games was 65.2 in Cleveland, 83.9 against Baltimore, and 64 in Tampa Bay.
While struggling against the Browns and Ravens is fair, Tampa Bay with its leaky secondary ranks last in pass defense.
Carolina ranks fourth in pass defense, making it much too tough for Lawrence to handle at the moment.
Lawrence is struggling behind poor pass protection.
He is banged-up, dealing in recent weeks with a concussion and with shoulder and ankle issues that are keeping him from practicing.
The absence of one of his favorite wide receivers, Christian Kirk, doesn't help.
Travis Etienne
Jacksonville's offense would love to help Lawrence by relying on running back Travis Etienne against Carolina's run defense, which is the weakest part of the Panthers' defense.
But Etienne routinely struggles to reach three YPC in a given game.
As measured by run block win rate, Jacksonville's offensive line is one of the worst at run-blocking.
Carolina, on the other hand, is one week removed from displaying its third-best run defense performance in franchise history when it shut down Atlanta's more potent rush attack.
Takeaway
Jacksonville's meltdown will continue as Carolina's offense continues to develop by taking advantage of a porous secondary that even backup quarterbacks are exploiting.
The Jaguars offense is in bad shape because of its inefficient run game, its shoddy offensive line play, and its banged-up quarterback.
Carolina's strong pass defense will make the Jaguars rely on Etienne, who needs 18 carries just to exceed 50 rushing yards against bottom-feeder run defenses like the Colts.
Best Bet: Panthers +7 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +240 with Bet365
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
Baltimore's Tough Spot
Baltimore's defense is tempting to like because it showed tremendous energy in Baltimore's 33-19 victory over mighty San Francisco.
However, the Ravens' defense is in a tough spot because it is hard to succeed against two great offenses in consecutive weeks.
Baltimore's schedule this year shows what I mean.
For example, the Ravens shut down CJ Stroud-led Houston in Week 1 before giving up 24 points to Cincinnati with its banged-up quarterback.
Later, they dominated Detroit, another impressive offense, before giving up 24 points to Arizona.
Then, they held Seattle to three points before giving up 33 points to Cleveland at home.
It is reasonable and justified to expect Baltimore to struggle against Miami.
What Will Happen
Miami will see that San Francisco found success against Baltimore with its ground game but foolishly abandoned it.
Expect the Dolphins, therefore, to hit the Ravens with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, who help their rush attack rank fifth in rushing yards per game.
When the Dolphins won in Baltimore last year 42-38, they relied especially on their pass attack.
Superstar Tyreek Hill, who caught nine passes for 99 yards last week, is healthy.
If Jaylen Waddle can't go, then his absence would be compensated for by the pass-catching prowess of speedy big-play threat Achane and perhaps also by the absence of banged-up safety Kyle Hamilton who is an important part of Baltimore's pass defense.
Miami's Improved Pass Defense
While the Dolphins allowed 38 points to Baltimore last year, it ranked 28th that year against the pass.
This year, it ranks tenth.
The Dolphins boast an excellent defensive line that excels at hitting and sacking the opposing quarterback.
With the addition of Jalen Ramsey, Miami's secondary is elite.
In the worst-case scenario, the absence of Waddle would cost Miami a few points, but Baltimore's offense will struggle much more severely given Miami's all-around defensive improvement.
The Dolphins have already displayed their comfort with limiting the rushing threat posed by mobile quarterbacks, as New York's Daniel Jones and Buffalo's Josh Allen failed to run for much against them.
Lamar Jackson is going to have to navigate Miami's secondary and pass rush without tight end Mark Andrews, whose services he benefited from in last year's game to the same extent that Miami benefited from Waddle's.
Best Bet: Dolphins +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Dolphins ML at +160 with Bet365
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver
Easton Stick
Now that he's had time to practice with his team, Chargers quarterback Easton Stick is developing.
In his team's near-upset win over Buffalo, Stick completed 23 of 33 passes for 215 yards.
He also achieved a 21-yard run.
His pass accuracy and mobility will both improve against a Denver defense whose pass rush is significantly less successful than Buffalo's – the Broncos rank 20th in sack rate.
They also rank 24th in pass defense, most recently allowing the likes of New England quarterback Bailey Zappe to outplay their own quarterback.
Stick would further benefit from the return of star wide receiver Keenan Allen.
Austin Ekeler
More than the Patriots could in their upset win over Denver last week, the Chargers can take advantage of the Broncos' vulnerable run defense that ranks second-to-last.
Austin Ekeler averaged 5.1 YPC in December 10 against Denver but only carried the ball ten times.
With Stick more comfortable, L.A.'s offense will use a two-dimensional attack to score with vastly greater facility.
Stronger Team
With its head coach fired, L.A. is also a tougher team than it was on December 10 when it lost 24-7.
Last week, the Chargers dominated the turnover battle, holding Buffalo's high-powered offense to below its season average in scoring.
The Chargers are playing motivated football, whereas, as a bonus for our play, the Broncos might feel gutted after having their playoff hopes nearly dashed entirely last week.
Russell Wilson
But even Denver's best offensive football is going to suffer with the poor play of Russell Wilson, who misreads coverages, misses open receivers, inflates his completion percentages with dump-offs that go nowhere, holds onto the ball so often that Denver ranks 27th at limiting its sacks per game, and is overall an unproductive quarterback.
The absence of concussed wide receiver Courtland Sutton would really hurt Wilson because Sutton is his best, if not his only, contested catch weapon.
L.A. allows about 30 fewer rush yards per game than Denver, so passing is something that the Broncos will need to do well, but the Chargers will benefit from facing a vastly easier pass test this week that has a weaker quarterback with a worse supporting cast.
Best Bet: Chargers +5.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Chargers ML at +205 at Bet365
