Week 17 -- Saturday Night Football -- Dallas vs Detroit

[B.A.R.]

Detroit/Dallas O51 -110 @ BETONLINE


Detroit will visit Dallas in a standalone game on Saturday night, December the 30th at Jerry World.

I am playing this now, as I can see this elevating to 52/52.5 when this number posts again next week.

Both teams will have a lot to play for:

• Respective Divisions (Detroit could possibly clinch before)
• 2nd seed (or possibly 1st) and a home game in the Divisional Round

This won't be a 'rest' game like some scenarios will see in Week 18.

Dallas points at home this year (in reverse order):

33
41
45
49
43
38
30

Detroit indoors this year (reverse order): *up to this point

42
33
22
31
41
26
42
20
31


**Dallas SIMPLY scores at home.

**Detroit generally fairs well indoors. The 20 vs Atlanta was a game they ran a lot and were content in the 4th quarter. The 22 was Turkey Day with a beat-up offensive line.

Some other factors to ponder:

• Cowboys will be home after two tough road games. They will be ready to let loose against a very average (to be kind) secondary.
• Detroit likely will play catch up and go more up-tempo
• Ragnow came back last week -- absolutely huge for Goff receiving time to pass.
• Night-time, showcase game on National TV.
• Detroit kicking game not the greatest, more aggressive on 4th
• MCDC aggressive on 4th in general
• Dallas trying to showcase Dak for MVP? Throwing late down 28 in Buffalo

So, I feel free recommending this play. Again, I think that 51 will be gone by next week's opener. I might be wrong, but the correct number here feels like 53.5/54.

***Dallas 34-24***

 

[B.A.R.]

Hopefully over bettors played this last week.

53.5 is the current #

As far as the game, I have a bit different take now that I'll share later.

Still like my over at 51

 

[B.A.R.]

Friday AM Thoughts

So, this is a pretty big game Saturday night for many reasons (and I am sure ESPN/ABC cannot be more thrilled with this match):

NFC East Race
Potential Bye for BOTH teams
HFA advantage for a possible Divisional Round game

I will tell you what, a big sigh of relief last week with the Lions winning up in Minneapolis. I didn't want them going into Dallas feeling the pressure of still needing a win or Minnesota loss to clinch the division. Sure, NBC might have had another option for Sunday Night in Week 18 but no reason to give them that option.

What do I think this means this week?

I honestly think we see a very 'loose' Lions team. They are playing with a lot of confidence now. That slump post bye week until mid-December definitely caused some alarm, but with the return of Ragnow the offense has righted the ship. Sure, the defense is middle of the pack. But, they can play some defense with this offense. I don't think we see them let up this week. In fact, I think they come out flying.

Now, on the flip, this is a huge game for Dallas off two road losses. We know the home and away theme with this team. We know how their offense performs in Jerry World. We know how much they need this game for playoff purposes.

This should be a great game. I like my play EVEN MORE now, than when I played it. I will stalk the live market, no doubt.

Do I have a recommendation for the side? No. I can make a case both ways. I so see more of a 35-30 kind of game now, so I am revising my prediction. The Lions shall play this a bit closer, I think. That could easily be a touchdown margin though, in a loss.

So, sticking with the over only, and maybe a prop as we get closer to game-time.

 

[rambler882]

Pick a side

 

[Gandolf]

Is there a Manningcast for this one? Don't tell me I have to listen to Joe Buck rooting for the Lions all night....

Don't see any reason to buck the trends with these two teams. Dallas at home is a beast, Lions on the road struggle. Both get to start the playoffs in opposite positions so no need for the NFL to throw us a curve ball here.

 

[B.A.R.]

Is there a Manningcast for this one? Don't tell me I have to listen to Joe Buck rooting for the Lions all night....

Don't see any reason to buck the trends with these two teams. Dallas at home is a beast, Lions on the road struggle. Both get to start the playoffs in opposite positions so no need for the NFL to throw us a curve ball here.

No Manningcast.

They have one left, which will be the MNF WC game on January 15th?

 

[B.A.R.]

Is there a Manningcast for this one? Don't tell me I have to listen to Joe Buck rooting for the Lions all night....

Don't see any reason to buck the trends with these two teams. Dallas at home is a beast, Lions on the road struggle. Both get to start the playoffs in opposite positions so no need for the NFL to throw us a curve ball here.

Dallas a beast at home, as we know.

Detroit 5-2 on the road.

Losses at Baltimore and Chicago.

Wins at KC, GB, TB, NO and MIN.

Two games indoors on the road, at Saints and at Vikings.

Lions averaged 31.5 ppg in the dome road games.

 

[The Farm]

Reno, I've been telling everyone all week Dallas by ten. My prediction was another 3 by each team but close enough. Either way this should be one of the more interesting games of the weekend. I believe detroit will put up a great effort but the differential in Dallas is just unremarkable. Lots of lions bettors are going to lose money. I was shocked to see the line move in their favor earlier this week. If I had to put a % on them winning this game outright it would be less than 10%

 

[KJ]

I miss the prop to score in the first 5 minutes or whatever it was

That would apply to this game

 

[B.A.R.]

Reno, I've been telling everyone all week Dallas by ten. My prediction was another 3 by each team but close enough. Either way this should be one of the more interesting games of the weekend. I believe detroit will put up a great effort but the differential in Dallas is just unremarkable. Lots of lions bettors are going to lose money. I was shocked to see the line move in their favor earlier this week. If I had to put a % on them winning this game outright it would be less than 10%

I think this will be a fun game.

Hoping for a chance in 4th is all.

Huge game for Dallas, big for Detroit.

TV executives have to be happy.

 

[Inspekdah]

Have either of these teams beat a good team? Cowboys best is Philly and Hawks at home? Lions beat anyone over .500 this year?

 

[KJ]

Have either of these teams beat a good team? Cowboys best is Philly and Hawks at home? Lions beat anyone over .500 this year?

Philly qualifies as a good win lol

 

[Inspekdah]

Philly qualifies as a good win lol

Besides*

 

[B.A.R.]

Have either of these teams beat a good team? Cowboys best is Philly and Hawks at home? Lions beat anyone over .500 this year?

Well, with only 7-8 good teams in the league this is a skewed thing.

Lions have multiple wins over opponents over .500

Lions 5-2 on road.

Absolutely can get blown out tonight.

Go points.

 

[Inspekdah]

Well, with only 7-8 good teams in the league this is a skewed thing.

Lions have multiple wins over opponents over .500

Lions 5-2 on road.

Absolutely can get blown out tonight.

Go points.

Chiefs and Bucs?

 

[Inspekdah]

Well, with only 7-8 good teams in the league this is a skewed thing.

Lions have multiple wins over opponents over .500

Lions 5-2 on road.

Absolutely can get blown out tonight.

Go points.

I actually like them tonight.

 

[Inspekdah]

I’ll tail the points though

 

[B.A.R.]

41.5 --115 live following Detroit 4th down

 

[B.A.R.]

Fumble into EZ.

Dumbass call on 4th

Sacked out of FG range.

Missed safety (although led to TD)

Gambling Gods

 

[B.A.R.]

Fwiw, I would do this bet 10 outta 10 times.

Everything possible went wrong here.

Happens.

Props will lessen the blow somewhat but still irritating.

 

[B.A.R.]

Fwiw, I would do this bet 10 outta 10 times.

Everything possible went wrong here.

Happens.

Props will lessen the blow somewhat but still irritating.

Actually,

After watching this 2nd half be a dead under.

This just isn't the matchup I thought.

Detroit defensive weakness being masked by a nice pass rush and a weird Dallas offense in general.

This looks more like games 1-8 from Detroit.

Happens.

I got my number and got toasted on it.

Bad bet.