RAVENS:
Baker enjoys a positive public perception, but it’s unmerited because his success has come against the weaker pass defenses. The Browns faced two teams that rank in the top 10 in pass defense, the Chargers and the Broncos. Baker threw for 188 yards and an 83.1 passer rating against a Denver secondary that was injury-ridden and his passer rating was 52.6 against the Chargers. Baltimore’s defense ranks second and is healthy. Cleveland’s offense tends to live and die with Baker. In games when his passer rating was less than 90, the Browns lost to Oakland, scored only 12 points (including overtime) against Baltimore, and no more than 18 against Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston and the Chargers. Against Baltimore’s deep and talented secondary, I expect around 14 points from Cleveland, meaning we only need Baltimore to reach 20 points.
The Ravens’ rushing numbers look deflated because they struggled to run when Alex Collins ran the show. But Gus Edwards has been a revelation. He’s a bruiser who averages 5.1 YPC. Kenneth Dixon adds 4.5. Plus there’s Lamar Jackson. They average 4.8 YPC in their past three games. The Browns rank in the bottom half against the run.
COLTS:
No matter who’s at quarterback, the Titans need to run the ball to succeed. They run with the second-highest frequency and have failed to cover their last four games when running for fewer than 150 yards. Against top rushing defenses based on YPC, they beat Houston 20-17, although the Texans gained 154 more yards than them. They lost 13-12 to Buffalo, 21-0 to Baltimore, 34-17 to Houston. The one exception where their offense did well was utterly anomalous. Marcus Mariota had a great game, they converted 11 of 14 third downs, and dominated time of possession. When they faced Indianapolis. they averaged 3.5 YPC—despite having a healthy Mariota—and lost 38-10. The Colts rank sixth in opposing YPC. It seems unlikely that the Titans reach 20 points.
The Colts average 26.7 points and I expect them to win by a touchdown. Their offense is prolific. Luck is having a great season, the o-line rarely allows sacks, T.Y. Hilton is healthy enough, and the run game provides balance. The Colts are 11-3 ATS L14 against Tennessee and two non-covers came when Luck was injured.
RAIDERS: Chiefs now 0-4 ATS Kareem Hunt. Raiders still fighting. Led by Carr (96.4 rating), they can stay close thanks to Chiefs defense that’s allowed 30+ in three of its last five games.
BILLS: Dolphins just lost their season last week and always looked like they were going to lose at home to pitiful Jacksonville. Now they have to go into cold Buffalo? I expect zero motivation from them.
PACKERS: Packers offense still looks very motivated. Detroit’s offense may be motivated, but it’s missing so many players at wide receiver and running back that it hasn’t reached 20 points since Nov. 18.
PATRIOTS: Time to hop off the Darnold train. The rookie runs into a pass defense that ranks ninth in opposing passer rating at home. The Jets haven’t faced a strong QB away all year. Brady will be focused.
PANTHERS: The Saints are exuberant after securing the top seed after a dramatic win against Pittsburgh. They should play backups or in any case not be interested. Panthers don’t need Cam to score enough.
GIANTS: The Giants are still fighting. They nearly beat Indy without their two best receivers. Dallas is enjoying an emotional upswing, having just clinched the division and isn’t the same team on the road.
FALCONS: Atlanta has solved its running woes, in addition to being a high-potential passing unit. Tampa Bay has the league’s worst pass defense. Atlanta has learned to win on the road, Tampa should be quiet.
JAGUARS: The Jags have gotten over their disappointing season and are trying hard again. The Texans are not this much better than them. Jags have an elite defense and will limit Houston enough to cover.
BRONCOS: L.A.’s secondary is its strength on D, but the Broncos love to run more than pass with Lindsay and Freeman. Denver has limited three its last five opponents to fewer than 18 points, including Pitt.
RAMS: The Rams’ offense has woken back up. They want to gain momentum heading into the playoffs. San Fran has been a consistent disaster away, getting killed at Seattle, at Tampa Bay, and losing at Zona.
BEARS: Bears have to win, Rams have to lose in order to get a first-round bye. Vikings „need“ the win more, but they shouldn’t be favored against a stifling defense and competent offense like Chicago’s.
BENGALS: Pitt needs a lot of help to get into the playoffs. They’ll be motivated, but will they be focused on beating Cincy by a hyper-inflated spread or watching the scoreboard? Cincy is still competitive.
SEAHAWKS: I already played the let-down angle with Seattle and lost when they killed San Fran, so I won’t try again. Seattle is steamrolling full of momentum into the playoffs, Cards will struggle to score.
REDSKINS: The Eagles need to win to stay alive, but Washington is still fighting and would love to spoil their rival’s hope. The Skins’ D has allowed one offensive touchdown in its past two games combined.
RAVENS: Baker has been impressive, but he only had one impressive road performance, which came at poor Cincy. Ravens have the top-ranked pass defense and will stifle him. They’re 5-1 L6 ATS vs Cleveland.
COLTS: Titans have a top-ranked scoring D, but even the best D gets worn down when the offense can’t sustain drives. Indy’s run D, led by Leonard, allows fewer than four YPC. Luck will take care of the rest.
Baker enjoys a positive public perception, but it’s unmerited because his success has come against the weaker pass defenses. The Browns faced two teams that rank in the top 10 in pass defense, the Chargers and the Broncos. Baker threw for 188 yards and an 83.1 passer rating against a Denver secondary that was injury-ridden and his passer rating was 52.6 against the Chargers. Baltimore’s defense ranks second and is healthy. Cleveland’s offense tends to live and die with Baker. In games when his passer rating was less than 90, the Browns lost to Oakland, scored only 12 points (including overtime) against Baltimore, and no more than 18 against Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston and the Chargers. Against Baltimore’s deep and talented secondary, I expect around 14 points from Cleveland, meaning we only need Baltimore to reach 20 points.
The Ravens’ rushing numbers look deflated because they struggled to run when Alex Collins ran the show. But Gus Edwards has been a revelation. He’s a bruiser who averages 5.1 YPC. Kenneth Dixon adds 4.5. Plus there’s Lamar Jackson. They average 4.8 YPC in their past three games. The Browns rank in the bottom half against the run.
COLTS:
No matter who’s at quarterback, the Titans need to run the ball to succeed. They run with the second-highest frequency and have failed to cover their last four games when running for fewer than 150 yards. Against top rushing defenses based on YPC, they beat Houston 20-17, although the Texans gained 154 more yards than them. They lost 13-12 to Buffalo, 21-0 to Baltimore, 34-17 to Houston. The one exception where their offense did well was utterly anomalous. Marcus Mariota had a great game, they converted 11 of 14 third downs, and dominated time of possession. When they faced Indianapolis. they averaged 3.5 YPC—despite having a healthy Mariota—and lost 38-10. The Colts rank sixth in opposing YPC. It seems unlikely that the Titans reach 20 points.
The Colts average 26.7 points and I expect them to win by a touchdown. Their offense is prolific. Luck is having a great season, the o-line rarely allows sacks, T.Y. Hilton is healthy enough, and the run game provides balance. The Colts are 11-3 ATS L14 against Tennessee and two non-covers came when Luck was injured.
RAIDERS: Chiefs now 0-4 ATS Kareem Hunt. Raiders still fighting. Led by Carr (96.4 rating), they can stay close thanks to Chiefs defense that’s allowed 30+ in three of its last five games.
BILLS: Dolphins just lost their season last week and always looked like they were going to lose at home to pitiful Jacksonville. Now they have to go into cold Buffalo? I expect zero motivation from them.
PACKERS: Packers offense still looks very motivated. Detroit’s offense may be motivated, but it’s missing so many players at wide receiver and running back that it hasn’t reached 20 points since Nov. 18.
PATRIOTS: Time to hop off the Darnold train. The rookie runs into a pass defense that ranks ninth in opposing passer rating at home. The Jets haven’t faced a strong QB away all year. Brady will be focused.
PANTHERS: The Saints are exuberant after securing the top seed after a dramatic win against Pittsburgh. They should play backups or in any case not be interested. Panthers don’t need Cam to score enough.
GIANTS: The Giants are still fighting. They nearly beat Indy without their two best receivers. Dallas is enjoying an emotional upswing, having just clinched the division and isn’t the same team on the road.
FALCONS: Atlanta has solved its running woes, in addition to being a high-potential passing unit. Tampa Bay has the league’s worst pass defense. Atlanta has learned to win on the road, Tampa should be quiet.
JAGUARS: The Jags have gotten over their disappointing season and are trying hard again. The Texans are not this much better than them. Jags have an elite defense and will limit Houston enough to cover.
BRONCOS: L.A.’s secondary is its strength on D, but the Broncos love to run more than pass with Lindsay and Freeman. Denver has limited three its last five opponents to fewer than 18 points, including Pitt.
RAMS: The Rams’ offense has woken back up. They want to gain momentum heading into the playoffs. San Fran has been a consistent disaster away, getting killed at Seattle, at Tampa Bay, and losing at Zona.
BEARS: Bears have to win, Rams have to lose in order to get a first-round bye. Vikings „need“ the win more, but they shouldn’t be favored against a stifling defense and competent offense like Chicago’s.
BENGALS: Pitt needs a lot of help to get into the playoffs. They’ll be motivated, but will they be focused on beating Cincy by a hyper-inflated spread or watching the scoreboard? Cincy is still competitive.
SEAHAWKS: I already played the let-down angle with Seattle and lost when they killed San Fran, so I won’t try again. Seattle is steamrolling full of momentum into the playoffs, Cards will struggle to score.
REDSKINS: The Eagles need to win to stay alive, but Washington is still fighting and would love to spoil their rival’s hope. The Skins’ D has allowed one offensive touchdown in its past two games combined.
RAVENS: Baker has been impressive, but he only had one impressive road performance, which came at poor Cincy. Ravens have the top-ranked pass defense and will stifle him. They’re 5-1 L6 ATS vs Cleveland.
COLTS: Titans have a top-ranked scoring D, but even the best D gets worn down when the offense can’t sustain drives. Indy’s run D, led by Leonard, allows fewer than four YPC. Luck will take care of the rest.
