Week 16

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 45-49 -27.40u
Totals: 3-2 +3.30u
ML: 29-41 -32.28u
Teaser: 32-26 +2.50u
UDMLP: 0-13 -6.50u
ML Parlay: 21-24 +2.12u
Longshot: 2-14 +26.42u
TD Player Prop: 32-63 -14.08u
Straight Player Prop: 51-59 -8.69u
Player Prop Parlay: 16-28 -1.43u
Team Total: 16-8 +12.49u

Total Overall: 247-327 -43.55u

Week 14 12-38 -36.16u
Week 15 1-1 -11.09u

Record updated and on display in all it's glory. In the true spirt of the season I was just making sure we had both red and green for the holidays. It's certainly not because I've hit an ice cold patch. 😂 Took a different approach limiting the plays in week 15 and taking a bigger swing but missed on the big one. Been the bug the last couple of weeks hitting a big ole flat ass windshield. Stretch run coming and really need to do something special here the next couple of weeks and the playoffs to climb out of the hole. I'll try and get back to a few thoughts on each so any feedback is welcome. I never do anything the easy way so gonna give it hell one way or the other.

🏈 Week 16 🏈

Sides:
Panthers +3 -110 (2.65/2.5)
Giants +3 -117 (2.92/2.5)
Pats +3 -115 (4.6/4)
Titans +3 -120 (3/2.5)
Bengals -4 -110 (3.3/3)
Jags +3.5 -113 (3.39/3)
Lions -7 -110 (3.3/3)
9ers -5.5 -105 (3.15/3)

Totals:


ML:
Panthers +147 (2/2.94)
Giants +128 (2/2.56)
Pats +135 (2.5/3.37)
Bears -130 (3.9/3)
Live: Bears ML +100 (3/3)
Titans +130 (2/2.6)
Cowboys -130 (3.9/3)
Jags +161 (2/3.22)

Teaser:
3 Team 7.5 pt tease +113 each (1/1.13)
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Giants +10
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Panthers +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Titans +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Jags +11
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/9ers +1.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Pats +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Lions +0.5

UDMLP:
Panthers +135/Pats +140/Jags +161 +1372 (.5/6.86)

ML Parlay:
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Bengals -210 +147 (2/2.94)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Lions -325 +119 (2/2.38)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/9ers -255 +133 (2/2.66)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Bengals -210/9ers -255/Lions -325 +349 (1/3.49)

Longshot:
Saquon TD/AJ Brown o74.5 rec yds/Panthers +6.5/Joe Burrow o2.5 pass TD/Quinn Ewers to throw 1+ int/Jameson Williams o77.5 rec yds +5400 (.5/27)

TD Player Prop:
AJ Brown +120 (1/1.2)
Colston Loveland +200 (1/2)
Tony Pollard +120 (1/1.2)
Dalton Kincaid +260 (1/2.6)
Devin Singletary +190 (1/1.9)
Jalen Nailor +300 (1/3)
Ryan Flournoy +350 (1/3.5)
Mike Gesicki +229 (1/2.29)
Rico Dowdle +120 (1/1.2)
Bucky Irving +140 (1/1.4)
Michael Wilson +160 (1/1.6)
Nico Collins +100 (2/2)
Jameson Williams +140 (1/1.4)
Hunter Henry +200 (1/2)

Straight Player Prop:
AJ Brown o64.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
Jayden Reed o40.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
D’Andre Swift o53.5 rush yds -115 (1.15/1)
Tony Pollard o57.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)
Gunnar Helm o34.5 rec yds +142 (1/1.42)
JJ McCarthy o13.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Aaron Jones o15.5 rec yds -117 (1.17/1)
Theo Johnson o45.5 rec yds +131 (1/1.31)
Ryan Flournoy o26.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
Joe Burrow o2.5 pass TD +156 (1/1.56)
De’Von Achane o84.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Mike Evans o67.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
Nico Collins o86.5 rec yds +150 (1/1.5)
Jameson Williams o77.5 rec yds +114 (1/1.14)
Jahmyr Gibbs o73.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)

Player Prop Parlay:
James Cook o77.5 rush yds/TD +112 (1/1.12)
Dak o1.5 pass TD/Burrow o1.5 pass TD +158 (1/1.58)
Bijan TD/Ja’Mar Chase TD/Jahmyr Gibbs TD +191 (1/1.91)
Jameson Williams o57.5 rec yds/Nico Collins o56.5 rec yds +127 (1/1.27)

Team Total:
Eagles TT o24.5 -120 (2.4/2)
Giants TT o20.5 -115 (2.3/2)
Bengas TT o26.5 -125 (2.5/2)
Pats TT o23.5 +100 (2/2)

🍀 GL This Week 🍀
 
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Panthers are 4-2 ATS at home this season and all 4 covers were su wins as a dog. Carolina avgeraged 29.5 pts per home win (22.5 pts per at home overall) vs 19.5 pts overall in the road games (19.6 in road wins). Bucs give up 25.5 pts per game on the road this year so should be some opportunity to move the ball. All that to say the Panthers play much better at home, but you already knew that. I was on the Bucs train early this season and thought maybe they'd be a SB contender but injuries got them a little off course and they've been disappointing lately. This should have both teams full attention really as they're playing for 1st place in the South. If one of these two need this one more it's Carolina, they have the tougher schedule down the stretch and can't afford to drop this one if they want to win the division. They'll be in Tampa the last week of the year and that one could decide the division if they take care of business this week. I just feel more comfortable with Carolina at home here.

Carolina 27 TB 23
 
TreyDawg said:
Panthers are 4-2 ATS at home this season and all 4 covers were su wins as a dog. Carolina avgeraged 29.5 pts per home win (22.5 pts per at home overall) vs 19.5 pts overall in the road games (19.6 in road wins). Bucs give up 25.5 pts per game on the road this year so should be some opportunity to move the ball. All that to say the Panthers play much better at home, but you already knew that. I was on the Bucs train early this season and thought maybe they'd be a SB contender but injuries got them a little off course and they've been disappointing lately. This should have both teams full attention really as they're playing for 1st place in the South. If one of these two need this one more it's Carolina, they have the tougher schedule down the stretch and can't afford to drop this one if they want to win the division. They'll be in Tampa the last week of the year and that one could decide the division if they take care of business this week. I just feel more comfortable with Carolina at home here.

Carolina 27 TB 23
Click to expand...
Good thoughts here.

I'll have my eye on an over here. The home and away numbers are glaring.

Biggest game in 8 years for the Panthers, right!?
 
Giants +3 -117 (2.92/2.5)
Giants +128 (2/2.56)

McCarthy as a 3 pt road fav huh? NY losing & Minny winning in prime time maybe giving a little value here? Just basically playing number here
 
Pats +3 -115 (4.6/4)
Pats +135 (2.5/3.37)

Young QB, on the road, after a disappointing loss, at a perennial tough place to play this time of year. I get it. Are the Pats for real? Can the Ravens get anything going? I’ll just go with what my eyes have show me to this point. Pats are a better team and playing better than Baltimore. Ravens haven’t looked right all year. No doubt this will be the week. lol
 
Bears -130 (3.9/3)
Titans +3 -120 (3/2.5)
Titans +130 (2/2.6)
Cowboys -130 (3.9/3)
Bengals -4 -110 (3.3/3)
Jags +3.5 -113 (3.39/3)
Jags +161 (2/3.22)
Lions -7 -110 (3.3/3)
9ers -5-5 -105 (3.15/3)

Eagles TT o24.5 -120 (2.4/2)
Giants TT o20.5 -115 (2.3/2)
Bengas TT o26.5 -125 (2.5/2)
Pats TT o23.5 +100 (2/2)
 
Bears are healthier, teams the week after playing the Broncos are something like 3-10 this season, Bears run game at home, an opportunistic defense against a QB that should give them an opportunity or two.
Chi 24 GB 20

Just all kinds of emotions goin on in KC I’d imagine. And can’t believe any of them are good. How long has it been since they’ve played a meaningless game? Now on the road playing a crap team just doesn’t seem like a circle the wagons kind of spot. How does KC move the ball? This one is ugly.
Ten 20 KC 17

Dak at home, Chargers off 2 emotional last minute wins and the Texans on deck. Not in love with the fact that Dallas could be officially eliminated from the playoffs when Philly wins but I’ll pay to see SD get up 3 weeks in a row.
Dal 27 SD 20

Joe Burrow gonna light Miami up. Scorched earth kind of game from Joe. Ewers in for the Dolphins, who knows what we get from him. I think it’s more likely Cincinnati scores 30 than it is Miami gets to 20.
Cin 33 Mia 17
 
Stepping in front of a long win streak I know. It’s gotta end at some point. And I can’t resist the hook, probably because I’m a sucker. Close game that I think could go either way but I’ll call for the win streak to end here.
Jax 23 Den 20

Lions are gonna move the ball and score points. I simply don’t think Pitt can keep up. They’ll try and play ball control but will fail miserably. Lions break a couple big plays and quick scores and will take Pitt out of that bal control mode. Jamo & Gibbs each with a long TD.
Det 30 Pit 20

Saleh defense vs a 44 yr old who just came back should favor the 9ers. Rivers really didn’t attempt anything downfield so take Taylor away and make him beat you. Rivers is a good story but reality sets in this week.
SF 27 Ind 16
 
Panthers +135/Pats +140/Jags +161 +1372 (.5/6.86)

Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Bengals -210 +147 (2/2.94)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Lions -325 +119 (2/2.38)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/9ers -255 +133 (2/2.66)
Eagles -345/Bills -560/Texans -1000/Bengals -210/9ers -255/Lions -325 +349 (1/3.49)
 
TreyDawg said:
Bears are healthier, teams the week after playing the Broncos are something like 3-10 this season, Bears run game at home, an opportunistic defense against a QB that should give them an opportunity or two.
Chi 24 GB 20

Just all kinds of emotions goin on in KC I’d imagine. And can’t believe any of them are good. How long has it been since they’ve played a meaningless game? Now on the road playing a crap team just doesn’t seem like a circle the wagons kind of spot. How does KC move the ball? This one is ugly.
Ten 20 KC 17

Dak at home, Chargers off 2 emotional last minute wins and the Texans on deck. Not in love with the fact that Dallas could be officially eliminated from the playoffs when Philly wins but I’ll pay to see SD get up 3 weeks in a row.
Dal 27 SD 20

Joe Burrow gonna light Miami up. Scorched earth kind of game from Joe. Ewers in for the Dolphins, who knows what we get from him. I think it’s more likely Cincinnati scores 30 than it is Miami gets to 20.
Cin 33 Mia 17
Click to expand...
Full agreement on these.
 
3 Team 7.5 pt tease +113 each (1/1.13)
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Giants +10
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Panthers +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Titans +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Jags +11
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/9ers +1.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Pats +10.5
Eagles +0.5/Bills -3/Lions +0.5
 
TD Scorers
AJ Brown +120 (1/1.2)
Colton Loveland +200 (1/2)
Tony Pollard +120 (1/1.2)
Dalton Kincaid +260 (1/2.6)
Devin Singletary +190 (1/1.9)
Jalen Nailor +300 (1/3)
Ryan Flournoy +350 (1/3.5)
Mike Gesicki +229 (1/2.29)
Rico Dowdle +120 (1/1.2)
Bucky Irving +140 (1/1.4)
Michael Wilson +160 (1/1.6)
Nico Collins +100 (2/2)
Jameson Williams +140 (1/1.4)
Hunter Henry +200 (1/2)
 
Straight Props today
AJ Brown o64.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
D’Andre Swift o53.5 rush yds -118 (1.18/1)
Jayden Reed o40.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
 
D’Andre Swift o53.5 rush yds -115 (1.15/1)
Tony Pollard o57.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)
Gunnar Helm o34.5 rec yds +142 (1/1.42)
JJ McCarthy o13.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Aaron Jones o15.5 rec yds -117 (1.17/1)
Theo Johnson o45.5 rec yds +131 (1/1.31)
Ryan Flournoy o26.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
Joe Burrow o2.5 pass TD +156 (1/1.56)
De’Von Achane o84.5 rush yds -114 (1.14/1)
Mike Evans o67.5 rec yds -114 (1.14/1)
Nico Collins o86.5 rec yds +150 (1/1.5)
Jameson Williams o77.5 rec yds +114 (1/1.14)
Jahmyr Gibbs o73.5 rush yds -113 (1.13/1)

James Cook o77.5 rush yds/TD +112 (1/1.12)
Dak o1.5 pass TD/Burrow o1.5 pass TD +158 (1/1.58)
Bijan TD/Ja’Mar Chase TD/Jahmyr Gibbs TD +191 (1/1.91)
Jameson Williams o57.5 rec yds/Nico Collins o56.5 rec yds +127 (1/1.27)
 
Longshot (but feels like a good one)

Saquon TD/AJ Brown o74.5 rec yds/Panthers +6.5/Joe Burrow o2.5 pass TD/Quinn Ewers to throw 1+ int/Jameson Williams o77.5 rec yds +5400 (.5/27)
 
TreyDawg said:
Longshot (but feels like a good one)

Saquon TD/AJ Brown o74.5 rec yds/Panthers +6.5/Joe Burrow o2.5 pass TD/Quinn Ewers to throw 1+ int/Jameson Williams o77.5 rec yds +5400 (.5/27)
Click to expand...
This one stings. I coulda chose 57.5 or 67.5 rec yds but took 77.5 to get the longer odds. Either of the other two choices woulda been a winner 🤦‍♂️
 
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