Week 16

[smh212]

Week 16 YTD

• Sides: 27-22 +5.78
• Totals: 13-14 -1.35
• Team Totals: 2-1 +0.81
• Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
• Teasers: 10-9 +1.90
• Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
• 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total 0-1 -1.10
• 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half total 1-0 +.50
• Parlay: 2-6-0.07

63 -59 +7.45

Will be adding my mac numbers and normal game writeups later this week. I like the game tonight:

JAGS -3, -120 (2.5)
My line: Jax -6

Over the past 5 games the Jags have seen their PR jump 3 points (in my system at least), while Tenny has seen theirs drop 2 points, and are currently the my lowest rated team in the NFL. Whether it's the LSU kid, Locker, or Whitehurst, none of them move the meter in my ratings. Same goes with Bortles or Henne, no adjustment. From a numbers standpoint, I have Jax a 4 PT favorite. However, I'm investing a bit more in this game due to the situation.
This is by far the worst prime time game I can recall, however, IMO, we have one team that this game means the world to, and one team who could care less. Jacksonville has played hard all season long. They play for their coach, they play for one another. Their record doesn't reflect the improvement this team has made since the season started. Over their last 5, Jax has seen their Defensive Yards/Game go from the 28th ranked club to the 19th. They still struggle, as they are ranked 31st in yardage diff over their last 5, climbing only 1 spot, however, the team that now sits at 32 is Tenny. In fact, Tenny has dropped in every significant statisical metric I use over their last 5. That being said, if you have watched these two teams play over the past month, you know this. It's painfully obvious that Tenny's D is just plain worn the fuck out. They are 31st in T.O.P over the last 5, and for the season. For a young team like Jacksonville, who has battled to get better and has tried all season long, this is their super bowl. They get to show their peers, what they can do, and I think they shit all over Tenny tonight. Call it 24-10.

TENNY Team Total UNDER 17.5 (1.25)

Good Luck.

:shake:

 

[Tito]

yup, totally agree…hope we are right, gl smh

 

[twinkie13]

agree

 

[smh212]

Good start to the week Tito and Twinkie....GL rest of the week......:cheers3:

 

[worminator]

Great call!

:cheers3:

 

[smh212]

12/20

REDSKINS +7.5 (1.25)
My line: Phila -6

First the general breakdown:

Phil -7.5 @ Wash

Washington outgained Giants by 85 yards with 4 more first downs
Washington denied TD on controversial play near goal line. Play ruled a touchback. Play would have given Wash a 17-7 lead.
"We shouldn't have let that play alter the game for us. Ultimately, it did," Griffin said. "It's a touchdown. That's how we all felt, everybody in the locker room, coaches included. My understanding is, if the ball passes the plane and you have control of the ball, it's a touchdown in every game that I've ever seen. They decided that it wasn't today."
Santana Moss was ejected in response to this play.
Due to TWO related 15-yard penalties, Giants onside kicked from WASHINGTON’S 35 yard line to start the second half … recovery led to a Giants FG.
RG3 replaced McCoy (injury)
18/27 for 236 yards (1/0) – sacked 7 times
PR line L8: Phila -6
PR line L4: Phila -6.5
Wash no home field advantage – home AMOV -8.7. Only home wins vs Jax and Tenny.

PHILA mac +17.5 L4 (on 2 game ATS losing streak) Eagles PR L4 only .2 better than an avg.

WASH mac -36.5 L4 (lost 3 straight ATS) WAS NET PR L4 has them as the 29[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked team in the NFL.

Since Sanchez has taken over, the Eagles are 15th in offensive yards per game. Prior to Sanchez they were 5th. Prior to Sanchez the Eagles were 12th in the NFL in yardage diff. Since Sanchez they are 18th. What has changed today vs the previous outings. He has followed the curve that I expect. He started out well, peaked after 2.5 games and now it's been downhill.

Eagles defense will struggle with the Redskins receivers, and if the Redskins stick with it, Morris will run the ball. I think the Eagles win, but getting over a TD is a play for me.

GL. :shake:

 

[emkee]

Nice call bro.

:shake:

 

[smh212]

12/21

Thanks Emkee. Birds are done, and they deserve to be. Need to build some depth.

Going to start posting my opinions and notes on games of interest in a following post. For starters, here is the updated MAC situation heading into Sunday:

MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week: 16-8 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week: 14-8 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.

Week 16 candidates: MAC of -40>: None.
Week 16 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be FADED): BUF (+59)

Just one MAC candidate this week, and it's a repeat from last week in Buffalo.


Additional Betting notes: Comparisons on team stats for season are no longer relevant. Everything in my analysis will focus on the last month. Locker room situations, coaching situations, etc, are going to have had a heavy influence since week 14, but now they take on a larger meaning in my capping.

Flying High
Buffalo, Seattle, and Minny, have all covered 4 straight. 8 teams have covered 4 straight this year: NE (Wk8 – W12), GB (Wk4 – Wk7), KC (5 straight; Wk7 – Wk11), AZ (5 straight Wk6 – Wk 12), INDY (5 straight Wk3 – Wk7), STL (Wk11 – Wk14), DEN (Wk5 – Wk8), SD (5 straight Wk 1 – Wk5). Half of the teams have went on to cover 5 straight weeks, and all such teams are currently above .500. The avg mac for teams on four game ATS winning streaks was +49.5. The teams that failed to cover the fifth game were NE (-2 mac in the loss @ GB), GB (-19 mac in loss to @ New Orleans), STL ( -11.5 mac last week vs AZ), and DEN (-25 mac week 9 @ NE).

So the question is, of the current 4 straight cover group, who has the best shot at covering 5 straight? Only BUFFALO with a +59 mac in their L4 qualify as a mac fade. BUF was a mac fade last week, but as we know they not only covered, but they beat GB SU. Were it not for the week 12 +32 mac they laid on the Jets (38-3 winner as 2.5 pt favorite), they would not be in the discussion.

Of the group, MINNESOTA has consistently outperformed the market to the tune of 7-1-1 ATS since week 7. Over that span, they accumulated a mac of only +36.5! That tells me that the odds makers have a pretty good handle on this team, however, given the 7-1-1 ATS mark they are also likely to be overrated by the market going forward. Weeks 1-6, they were all over the place in relation to closing number:

Wk 1: +31
Wk 2: -19.5
Wk 3: -1.5
Wk 4: +18.5
Wk 5: -24
Wk 6: -15

In 5 of the 6 weeks, they over or under performed by more than two TD’s vs the closing number. During their current 7-1-1 ATS stretch they have only one game where the final margin was greater than a TD (WK 13 they posted a +15.5 in a 31-13 win over Carolina as a 2.5 pt fav – despite being out-gained 347 to 218 and Car picking up 23 first downs to Minny’s 12. Minny scored on TWO blocked points, rolled up 28 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half points, and scored 3 pts in the second half).

Seattle has gone 5-1 ATS since wk 10. Wk 10 saw them break a 0-4 ATS slide in which they accumulated a -33 mac, which included their worst mac of the season: -15 in a wk 6 30-23 HOME loss to Dallas. A road loss the following week in STL, got the talking heads going, and it was decided that Seattle was done. The next two weeks saw Seattle win, but not cover at Carolina and then at home against Oakland when Oak scored a late TD (which has been their M.O. all season) making the final score 30-24, and resulting in a -7 mac for the champs. Since then, they have been anointed once again. They beat up the Giants the following week, covering, lost a pk’m game at KC 24-20, before beating SF twice, AZ, and Phila. So naturally, the media has now anointed them as the team to beat. Outside of the the wk 13 win over SF in which Seattle posted a +17 mac, mainly due to a bad line by the odds makers, the champs mac has been in decline posting a +8.5,+6, and +1 in last week’s home win over SF against a closing number of -10, whereas TWO weeks prior in SF, the game closed SF -1.5. If you include Seattle HFA of 4.5 pts and SF’s of 3, that’s a 19 pt line swing (3+1.5+4.5+10) in a two week period involving the same two teams!! Damn near 3 TD’s. So who did the odds makers misread in wk 13? SF or Sea? Well, SF posted -15.5 mac the following week (over two TD’s), and Sea posted a +6, so that tells me it was SF that they didn’t have a handle on.

Here is how I rank these teams w/ regards to who has the best chance to cover 5 straight. Ranked most likely to least likely:

1. Minnesota
2. Seattle
3. Buffalo

As it currently stands, I'm looking to fade Seattle and Buffalo and play on Minny.

 

[D.D.]

Thanks really appreciate it. Going for Minny

 

[smh212]

BETS

Thanks DD - me too:

Minnesota @ Miami -6 41.5 (open 7 43.5)
MIN:
Last week against Detroit, was a game that Minny could have, should have won.
Consider:
Game Yardage: Minny 360; Detroit 233
First Downs: Minny 21; Detroit 11
Time of Possession: Minny 35 minutes; Detroit 25 minutes
Minny -2 turnovers
Minnesota led 14-0
Vikings missed a 68 yard FG attempt (to win the game) as time expired
Vikings missed a total of 3 FG attempts
------------------------------------------------
Minny a team that has played better than their record. Team believes the are headed in right direction.
PR in the + over their L4.
My PR have Minny as 2 point favorite.
Minny mac +27.5 L4. NET PR +1.03 L4. First time this season in the + and now 1 spot above an avg NFL team over L4.

MIA:
According to Associated Press: “Mike Wallace grew testy after the game when a reporter asked him about the future of coach Joe Philbin.”
Mia eliminated from playoff contention last week. Hard to imagine considering where they were a little over a month ago.
Reasonable to question their desire, motivation, given circumstances, quite frankly they have the look and feel of a distracted team.
Dolphins last 7 quarters: outscored 69-13
Miami has given up 769 rushing yards their last four games
Last week:
Pats scored on a blocked FG return
NE outgained Miami by only 11 yards
NE scored last 27 points of the game
Mia mac L4 -37.5. Last 3 games a seriously negative mac trend: -4, -18, -19. Mia NET PR L4 -4.30 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL. Mia PR decrease of 6.26 worst in NFL L8.


Conclusion: Great spot for Minny, terrible spot for Miami. Two teams headed in the opposite direction at this time of year is very profitable, because the downward trending team, has NOTHING to look forward to. In the case of Miami, they are done. The goal of making the playoffs is gone. The playoffs have been out of reach for Minny for a couple weeks now, but the energy in the building is positive. Vikings are a bet w/ both the points, and the ML.

MINNESOTA +6 (1.25)
MINNESOTA +215 (.75)

May add more

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[TreyDawg]

Nice start to the week. GL today SMH

 

[bones]

Good Luck....I read your comments re Vikes and others also. I posted the Fins and when I did I actually said it was a 'hunch' as much as anything and that I actually like the Vikes too. In any case, not on Fins anymore. Thanks and good job so far this week...keep it up

 

[smh212]

Thanks Worm, Emkee, Bar, and Bones.

Bones - Mia down to 5.5 now. Likely drop to 4.5 by kickoff. GL today.

 

[KTR99]

Just watched it drop to 3.5 at BOL

 

[smh212]

KTR - Wow. If it hits 3, I'm buying some back!

Add:

2T Jets +15.5 and AZ +14.5 (2.5)

 

[smh212]

BEARS +10 (1.25) - inflated line. I don't know how interested the Lions are going to be in this game.
TEXANS TT UN 18 (1.25) - 4th starting QB this season. How are they going to score points?
AZ CARDS +8.5 (1.25) - My line: Sea 5
OAKLAND +7 (1.25) - My line: Buf -4.5

GL

:shake:

 

[JML4481]

I don't post much,but wanted to thank you for all of your hard work. Always a great read.

 

[guaranteeed]

gl smh

 

[smh212]

Appreciate it JML and Teed.

For MNF:

Den/Cincy UNDER 48 (1.5) and UNDER 47.5 (3)
Middle buy back: OVER 46.5 (2) - NET Wager 2.5 units on the UNDER.

I really like the under here. Been riding the Denver UNDER train since they changed scheme to feature the run. They have had success as they attempt to protect Manning, how needed two I.V.'s after the SD game, and is clearly not 100%. Cincy over their last 5 have played to 38.4, as they have also looked to control the game with the run, and protect Dalton from himself. Since Denver has changed up their scheme a month ago, their games have averaged 39.3 pts/game. Styles have changed, yet the totals being posted are more reflective of week 3.

GL