D-Woww
Old Man Dan
Ill post the column link when it goes up, but heres the draft:
Week 15: 5-0
Season to date: 38-19-3 (66.6%...could this mean I am the devil to bookies?)
After a rough stretch, I considered calling it a season, and ending with a solid overall record while refusing to give anything more back. It turns out that opting against that was a good decision, as some solid capping mixed with a bit of luck (ahem, Miami game) resulted in a perfect 5-0 week 15.
This week, the card is much tougher. However, while some people swear that teasers are for suckers, I operate under a different mindset. I say, if you don't like the lines that are out there, make some lines that you do! That will be the theme this week, as the card will be small and two of the plays will be teasers.
Two team, 6 point teaser, Cincy -1/Indy +12.5
I got on this right away, which quite possibly could have screwed me out of crossing the number 13, as the line on KC is up to 7.5 at some places. At my book, its still at 7, but such is life, I post the lines as I got them and posted on Twitter, and sometimes that backfires on me.
First off, Cincy comes back home after a huge letdown in Pittsburgh to face the Vikings who just won a game against a team that had a similar let down. They will come back down to Earth, Matt Cassel's lack of arm strength will be better exposed outdoors than it was last week in the dome, and the Bengals defense is eons better than the swiss cheese secondary of the Eagles. Bengals should win this game in a rout, but I feel like -1 is very safe.
The second leg of this teaser I have seen many people disagree with on the forums I post on (www.cappingthegame.com is the prominant one...seriously check them out, great place). A lot of people point out that Indy has been blown out on the road lately, and has struggled against any team with a pulse since Reggie Wayne went down. While I do find that to be true, I can say the same thing about Kansas City. Seriously, who have they beaten that is really all that impressive?
To cover this spread, they would have to win by 13. The teams they have beat by 13 or more this year are the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders twice, and Washington Redskins, all cellar dwellers who can't stop anybody. Most of their wins were not only against a very easy schedule, but we also fairly close. I also don't think they go all out to dominate this game. You can make a case that if Denver loses a game and KC wins out, they can win the West, but the Broncos play the Texans and Raiders to close out their season, and Andy Reid knows that. I'm not saying anybody is going to rest or anything, but I don't think the Chiefs are going to extend themselves to dominate the Colts, who actually are playing for a possible 2 seed.
I just don't see this game being a blowout, and am happy to take the points. Even if the Chiefs are up by 17 in the fourth quarter, this one could backdoor its way to being a win.
Three team, 10 point teaser: Denver pk/Seattle pk/San Fran -2.5
I have never been shy about my willingness to make public plays if I thought they were going to win. This takes that to the extreme. Literally anybody who understand what a teaser is is going to be on this one. I don't care. I don't think there is anything the bookmakers could do with this one. The only way to avoid this teaser would be to set the lines of Denver or Seattle at -17, and in that case they would have gotten absolutley pounded by the sharps on the underdogs. So now all the bookies are just praying for an upset, or a lot of people are going to win. Could it happen, sure, but I'll gladly pay to see it.
Three team, 10 point teaser: Washington +13/Patriots +12.5/Oakland/SD over 41
Final play of the week. I actually like Washington to win the game here, as we saw last week how much disarray the Cowboys are in. Washington sucks, and they have quit on the season, but I will tell you one thing, this is their Super Bowl. Like anybody aside from Dallas natives and front running assholes, they despise Dallas, and if Washington can help put an end to their season, it would be one bright spot they can celebrate in an otherwise disastrous year. I think they do it.
I have a conspiracy angle on this game too, that may be absolute hogwash, but last week the NFL flexed the Patriots/Ravens game out of the Sunday night spot in favor of Chicago/Philly. It looked at the time like it was going to be a must win game for both teams. Now, since the Eagles lost, if Dallas wins this game at Washington, the Eagles game will mean absolutely nothing for Philly. Would you be shocked if Roger doesnt have his crew do what they can to at least give the Skins a chance? I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I'm also saying that nothing would shock me with Goodell.
My original next leg of this teaser was to tease the over/under of this game down to 44, but there are forecasts calling for heavy thunderstorms and winds, so I am going to lay off. I'm going to tease the total of Oakland/SD instead. Both teams have shoddy defenses and offenses who can score, and we know in SD weather won't be a problem.
As far as the Pats leg, I don't thinkt his is more than a touchdown game either way. Neither team is constructed to blow out anybody at this point. Ill take the 12.5 point cushion.
Be careful this week, the lines are really tight and I'm resorting to teasers because of it. Props were 3-0 again on Sunday (although on MNF they were crap), so remember to check in Sunday morning on Twitter
Week 15: 5-0
Season to date: 38-19-3 (66.6%...could this mean I am the devil to bookies?)
After a rough stretch, I considered calling it a season, and ending with a solid overall record while refusing to give anything more back. It turns out that opting against that was a good decision, as some solid capping mixed with a bit of luck (ahem, Miami game) resulted in a perfect 5-0 week 15.
This week, the card is much tougher. However, while some people swear that teasers are for suckers, I operate under a different mindset. I say, if you don't like the lines that are out there, make some lines that you do! That will be the theme this week, as the card will be small and two of the plays will be teasers.
Two team, 6 point teaser, Cincy -1/Indy +12.5
I got on this right away, which quite possibly could have screwed me out of crossing the number 13, as the line on KC is up to 7.5 at some places. At my book, its still at 7, but such is life, I post the lines as I got them and posted on Twitter, and sometimes that backfires on me.
First off, Cincy comes back home after a huge letdown in Pittsburgh to face the Vikings who just won a game against a team that had a similar let down. They will come back down to Earth, Matt Cassel's lack of arm strength will be better exposed outdoors than it was last week in the dome, and the Bengals defense is eons better than the swiss cheese secondary of the Eagles. Bengals should win this game in a rout, but I feel like -1 is very safe.
The second leg of this teaser I have seen many people disagree with on the forums I post on (www.cappingthegame.com is the prominant one...seriously check them out, great place). A lot of people point out that Indy has been blown out on the road lately, and has struggled against any team with a pulse since Reggie Wayne went down. While I do find that to be true, I can say the same thing about Kansas City. Seriously, who have they beaten that is really all that impressive?
To cover this spread, they would have to win by 13. The teams they have beat by 13 or more this year are the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders twice, and Washington Redskins, all cellar dwellers who can't stop anybody. Most of their wins were not only against a very easy schedule, but we also fairly close. I also don't think they go all out to dominate this game. You can make a case that if Denver loses a game and KC wins out, they can win the West, but the Broncos play the Texans and Raiders to close out their season, and Andy Reid knows that. I'm not saying anybody is going to rest or anything, but I don't think the Chiefs are going to extend themselves to dominate the Colts, who actually are playing for a possible 2 seed.
I just don't see this game being a blowout, and am happy to take the points. Even if the Chiefs are up by 17 in the fourth quarter, this one could backdoor its way to being a win.
Three team, 10 point teaser: Denver pk/Seattle pk/San Fran -2.5
I have never been shy about my willingness to make public plays if I thought they were going to win. This takes that to the extreme. Literally anybody who understand what a teaser is is going to be on this one. I don't care. I don't think there is anything the bookmakers could do with this one. The only way to avoid this teaser would be to set the lines of Denver or Seattle at -17, and in that case they would have gotten absolutley pounded by the sharps on the underdogs. So now all the bookies are just praying for an upset, or a lot of people are going to win. Could it happen, sure, but I'll gladly pay to see it.
Three team, 10 point teaser: Washington +13/Patriots +12.5/Oakland/SD over 41
Final play of the week. I actually like Washington to win the game here, as we saw last week how much disarray the Cowboys are in. Washington sucks, and they have quit on the season, but I will tell you one thing, this is their Super Bowl. Like anybody aside from Dallas natives and front running assholes, they despise Dallas, and if Washington can help put an end to their season, it would be one bright spot they can celebrate in an otherwise disastrous year. I think they do it.
I have a conspiracy angle on this game too, that may be absolute hogwash, but last week the NFL flexed the Patriots/Ravens game out of the Sunday night spot in favor of Chicago/Philly. It looked at the time like it was going to be a must win game for both teams. Now, since the Eagles lost, if Dallas wins this game at Washington, the Eagles game will mean absolutely nothing for Philly. Would you be shocked if Roger doesnt have his crew do what they can to at least give the Skins a chance? I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I'm also saying that nothing would shock me with Goodell.
My original next leg of this teaser was to tease the over/under of this game down to 44, but there are forecasts calling for heavy thunderstorms and winds, so I am going to lay off. I'm going to tease the total of Oakland/SD instead. Both teams have shoddy defenses and offenses who can score, and we know in SD weather won't be a problem.
As far as the Pats leg, I don't thinkt his is more than a touchdown game either way. Neither team is constructed to blow out anybody at this point. Ill take the 12.5 point cushion.
Be careful this week, the lines are really tight and I'm resorting to teasers because of it. Props were 3-0 again on Sunday (although on MNF they were crap), so remember to check in Sunday morning on Twitter
