NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at +271 Odds
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Baker Mayfield
It would not be quite accurate to say that Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has improved. But, his numbers are undeniably better.
In three of Mayfield’s last four games, he achieved a passer rating of over 110. The one exception came against Baltimore’s stiff defense.
Moreover, Baker has produced four of his five highest passing yardage totals in his last four games.
Mayfield’s numbers are stronger because he is having to drop back and go through his progressions less frequently.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is having him execute a lot of play-action passes. The Browns execute this type of play with the fourth-highest frequency.
With Mayfield, they also do a lot of RPOs, rollouts, and other such plays that do not require the quarterback to simply drop back and throw.
When Baker does have to drop back and throw, he is typically able to lock onto his first read.
Also, Cleveland’s ground game allows Baker to encounter many single-high safety looks, which allow him to more easily hit his outside receivers on vertical routes.
For the above reasons, metrics have Baker pinned as the seventh-most accurate passer since Week 7 and the rate at which he makes turnover-worthy plays has fallen drastically.
So give Stefanski a lot of credit for gearing the offense to support Baker’s strengths and to disguise his weaknesses.
Browns Offense vs. Jets Defense
But even before Stefanski figured out many of these adjustments, Mayfield produced strong passing outputs against weaker secondaries like Cincinnati’s.
The Jet secondary certainly counts as weak. The Jets rank 30th in opposing passing yards per game.
Mayfield has faced two other defenses — Jacksonville and Tennessee -- which rank bottom-five in this category. He threw a combined total of six touchdowns to zero interceptions against those defenses and his pass completion rate was higher than his season average.
Cleveland’s running scheme will arguably be the toughest test that New York’s run defense will have confronted this season.
Nick Chubb is a big reason why. The NFL’s fifth-leading rusher, Chubb possesses uncanny speed for a man of his size and strength. He is elite at breaking tackles and is otherwise very hard to stop once he gets rolling.
Jets Offense vs. Browns Defense
By a strong margin, the Jet offense ranks last in averaging 14.7 points per game. So opposing offenses have little work to accomplish in order to ensure that its team covers the spread.
A big reason why Cleveland, in its last game, limited the Giants to three points was the return of top cornerback Denzel Ward.
Ward is clearly fit. This season, he’s allowing a 56.6 percent completion rate and 80.8 passer rating when targeted.
Obviously, the Jets lack weapons in the passing game. But Ward will be able to take away New York’s best one.
Ward’s absence had explained why Cleveland’s defensive weakness was against the pass.
But throughout the year the Browns have also had one of the NFL’s better running defenses.
So if Cleveland will be beat, it will be through the air. But Jet quarterback Sam Darnold has such a low YPA and passer rating and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns largely because he lacks weapons who can reliably get open.
Even top Jet targets like Jamison Crowder rank outside the top 50 among wide receivers in average cushion.
Situation
The Jets are on an emotional high after avoiding the disgrace of an 0-16 season.
They were able to beat the Rams because they built a nice lead against them. The Rams are not built to press forward and come back from larger deficits.
Cleveland will fully focus on New York, because it beat the Rams. Expect the Browns to dominate from start to finish with a balanced offensive attack and a well-rounded defense that improves massively with Ward back.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Big Ben’s Struggles
Clearly, something is not right with Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
His throwing mechanics are off. Perhaps he’s compensating for some pain in his arm. Perhaps he’s just old and deteriorating. The correct answer is likely a mixture of both.
For whatever the reason, his passer rating has been 83 or lower in each of his past four games.
His arm issues prevent him from throwing a strong or accurate deep ball.
Instead, the Steeler passing game is focused on shorter throws. But defenses have adjusted and are taking those shorter throws away. Cornerbacks, for example, are sitting aggressively on opposing short routes.
If you also consider that the Steeler ground game is perennially unable to establish itself — Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rushing yards per game — then it’s easy to see why Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in any of its last four games.
It has not mattered how bad the opposing defense is. Even when pressing from behind against the Bengals, Pittsburgh only mustered 17 points on Monday Night Football.
You can’t claim that Pittsburgh is “desperate” and will play better because it feels more “urgency.” If Pittsburgh wasn’t desperate on Monday Night Football after it had lost two games in a row, then when will Pittsburgh be effectively “desperate?”
Consider, anyways, that Pittsburgh has already clinched a playoff spot.
But the fact is that the Steeler offense is broken because of Big Ben’s struggles and its lack of rush attack.
Steeler Defense vs. Colt Offense
Pittsburgh’s superb pass rush will feast on the statue that is Colt quarterback Philip Rivers.
Rivers has been playing well recently while facing lower-quality secondaries who do not easily prevent opposing wide receivers from getting open and who mount minimal pass rush.
But Rivers’ worst games have come against teams who do blanket receivers and have guys who excel at attacking the quarterback.
Pittsburgh owns the NFL’s best sack rate because opposing offenses have to expend extra resources to account for TJ Watt, who leads the team with 13 sacks.
There are also guys like Stephon Tuitt, who has nine sacks so far, to account for.
One Steeler cornerback who will blanket receivers is Joe Haden, who allows a completion percentage lower than 50 when targeted.
Rivers and company have faced one top-five scoring defense so far, Baltimore, and it mustered all of 10 points.
Pittsburgh is likewise a top-five scoring defense because its pass rush is stacked with guys like Tuitt and Watt and because its secondary is anchored by top defensive backs like Haden.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns -8.5 at -108 & Colts/Steelers Under 44.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Baker Mayfield
It would not be quite accurate to say that Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has improved. But, his numbers are undeniably better.
In three of Mayfield’s last four games, he achieved a passer rating of over 110. The one exception came against Baltimore’s stiff defense.
Moreover, Baker has produced four of his five highest passing yardage totals in his last four games.
Mayfield’s numbers are stronger because he is having to drop back and go through his progressions less frequently.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is having him execute a lot of play-action passes. The Browns execute this type of play with the fourth-highest frequency.
With Mayfield, they also do a lot of RPOs, rollouts, and other such plays that do not require the quarterback to simply drop back and throw.
When Baker does have to drop back and throw, he is typically able to lock onto his first read.
Also, Cleveland’s ground game allows Baker to encounter many single-high safety looks, which allow him to more easily hit his outside receivers on vertical routes.
For the above reasons, metrics have Baker pinned as the seventh-most accurate passer since Week 7 and the rate at which he makes turnover-worthy plays has fallen drastically.
So give Stefanski a lot of credit for gearing the offense to support Baker’s strengths and to disguise his weaknesses.
Browns Offense vs. Jets Defense
But even before Stefanski figured out many of these adjustments, Mayfield produced strong passing outputs against weaker secondaries like Cincinnati’s.
The Jet secondary certainly counts as weak. The Jets rank 30th in opposing passing yards per game.
Mayfield has faced two other defenses — Jacksonville and Tennessee -- which rank bottom-five in this category. He threw a combined total of six touchdowns to zero interceptions against those defenses and his pass completion rate was higher than his season average.
Cleveland’s running scheme will arguably be the toughest test that New York’s run defense will have confronted this season.
Nick Chubb is a big reason why. The NFL’s fifth-leading rusher, Chubb possesses uncanny speed for a man of his size and strength. He is elite at breaking tackles and is otherwise very hard to stop once he gets rolling.
Jets Offense vs. Browns Defense
By a strong margin, the Jet offense ranks last in averaging 14.7 points per game. So opposing offenses have little work to accomplish in order to ensure that its team covers the spread.
A big reason why Cleveland, in its last game, limited the Giants to three points was the return of top cornerback Denzel Ward.
Ward is clearly fit. This season, he’s allowing a 56.6 percent completion rate and 80.8 passer rating when targeted.
Obviously, the Jets lack weapons in the passing game. But Ward will be able to take away New York’s best one.
Ward’s absence had explained why Cleveland’s defensive weakness was against the pass.
But throughout the year the Browns have also had one of the NFL’s better running defenses.
So if Cleveland will be beat, it will be through the air. But Jet quarterback Sam Darnold has such a low YPA and passer rating and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns largely because he lacks weapons who can reliably get open.
Even top Jet targets like Jamison Crowder rank outside the top 50 among wide receivers in average cushion.
Situation
The Jets are on an emotional high after avoiding the disgrace of an 0-16 season.
They were able to beat the Rams because they built a nice lead against them. The Rams are not built to press forward and come back from larger deficits.
Cleveland will fully focus on New York, because it beat the Rams. Expect the Browns to dominate from start to finish with a balanced offensive attack and a well-rounded defense that improves massively with Ward back.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Big Ben’s Struggles
Clearly, something is not right with Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
His throwing mechanics are off. Perhaps he’s compensating for some pain in his arm. Perhaps he’s just old and deteriorating. The correct answer is likely a mixture of both.
For whatever the reason, his passer rating has been 83 or lower in each of his past four games.
His arm issues prevent him from throwing a strong or accurate deep ball.
Instead, the Steeler passing game is focused on shorter throws. But defenses have adjusted and are taking those shorter throws away. Cornerbacks, for example, are sitting aggressively on opposing short routes.
If you also consider that the Steeler ground game is perennially unable to establish itself — Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rushing yards per game — then it’s easy to see why Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in any of its last four games.
It has not mattered how bad the opposing defense is. Even when pressing from behind against the Bengals, Pittsburgh only mustered 17 points on Monday Night Football.
You can’t claim that Pittsburgh is “desperate” and will play better because it feels more “urgency.” If Pittsburgh wasn’t desperate on Monday Night Football after it had lost two games in a row, then when will Pittsburgh be effectively “desperate?”
Consider, anyways, that Pittsburgh has already clinched a playoff spot.
But the fact is that the Steeler offense is broken because of Big Ben’s struggles and its lack of rush attack.
Steeler Defense vs. Colt Offense
Pittsburgh’s superb pass rush will feast on the statue that is Colt quarterback Philip Rivers.
Rivers has been playing well recently while facing lower-quality secondaries who do not easily prevent opposing wide receivers from getting open and who mount minimal pass rush.
But Rivers’ worst games have come against teams who do blanket receivers and have guys who excel at attacking the quarterback.
Pittsburgh owns the NFL’s best sack rate because opposing offenses have to expend extra resources to account for TJ Watt, who leads the team with 13 sacks.
There are also guys like Stephon Tuitt, who has nine sacks so far, to account for.
One Steeler cornerback who will blanket receivers is Joe Haden, who allows a completion percentage lower than 50 when targeted.
Rivers and company have faced one top-five scoring defense so far, Baltimore, and it mustered all of 10 points.
Pittsburgh is likewise a top-five scoring defense because its pass rush is stacked with guys like Tuitt and Watt and because its secondary is anchored by top defensive backs like Haden.
Best Bet: Parlay Browns -8.5 at -108 & Colts/Steelers Under 44.5 at -108 at +271 Odds with Heritage
