SNF: RAVENS
Baltimore’s fourth-rated pass defense in terms of opposing passer rating is a match for the Chargers. Baltimore has faced three other teams that boast a quarterback which ranks in the top 5 in QB rating—Kansas City, New Orleans, and Atlanta. The Ravens took KC to overtime, beat Atlanta and lost by a point in a late meltdown to New Orleans. Baltimore’s depth and quality in its secondary is elite, especially when one considers how unexceptional its pass rush is. Baltimore’s fifth-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC will be prepared for the return of running back Melvin Gordon.
The Ravens’ offense is much improved since its bye week. They all but ditched Alex Collins and instead focus on Gus Edwards and give Kenneth Dixon an added role. Edwards is a 238-pound bruiser who averages 4.8 YPC and is effective on the goal line and everywhere else. Quarterback Lamar Jackson also looks to keep his starting role in place of the lackluster Joe Flacco.
The Chargers are in a bad spot off a dramatic, playoff-clinching primetime win on the road and don’t enjoy any home field advantage. They’re 2-5 ATS in L.A.
SNF: SEAHAWKS
The Chiefs are now 0-3 ATS without Kareem Hunt. They’re getting less production out of their running backs because they have less depth and quality at the position. As a result, they’re less confident running the ball. In their past three games, they’re running it only 36% of the time, which ranks bottom-10 in the category, and are becoming more one-dimensional on offense.
Mahomes will get his lion’s share of production, but I think Seattle’s offense will be more effective because it will be more balanced. The weakness of Seattle’s pass attack is its vulnerability to sacks. But KC’s sack percentage is the sixth-lowest away from home. Russell Wilson has healthy wide receivers and Kansas City’s cornerbacks are worse than the numbers show because their ineptness has been masked by KC’s stronger pass rush at home. The Chiefs’ opposing passer rating is 104.7 on the road.
Seattle is a run-first team. It relies on a number of solid running backs, of which Rashaad Penny will hopefully return from injury. KC is second-to-last in opposing YPC. The Seahawks will use their balanced attack to control tempo and keep Mahomes off the field.
TITANS: Jacksonville’s awful offense masked how inept Washington’s D is. Skins rank 21st in opposing YPC. Titans are run-first, will run over them with Henry and shut down Washington’s injury-ridden offense.
RAVENS: Chargers in let-down spot after primetime, playoff-clinching victory. Ravens’ top-ranked defense will limit Chargers’ offense and its improved run-focused offense will keep the game close enough.
BROWNS: Cleveland can score, but Cincy can’t. Cincy will miss its starting QB, top wide receiver, and possibly its second-best receiver. Cleveland’s run D is allowing 3.8 YPC in its past three games.
COWBOYS: TB ranks last in opposing passer rating. It yields a 134 passer rating on the road. Dallas excels at home, where it can bounce back after last week’s embarrassing loss. Dallas is 5-2 ATS at home.
LIONS: Spoiler alert! Minny bounced back vs. an undermanned Miami team on the strength of its run game. But Detroit’s run D has been superb since adding Damon Harrison. Cousins continues to play awfully.
GIANTS: The Giants are still playing hard. It ranks sixth in opposing passer rating. Indy has laid clunkers lately when heavily favored and won’t cover after shutting out Dallas, before facing Tennessee.
DOLPHINS: The Jags play hard at home, but I don’t trust them to give effort on the road. Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS on the road. They have nothing left to play for, whereas Miami is still in the playoff hunt.
BILLS: NE doesn’t look like it should be laying this many points. Buffalo’s D is underrated. It ranks number one in opposing QBR and can limit Brady. NE’s run D is bottom-ranked and Buffalo is run-first.
JETS: Green Bay’s season is over and I can’t imagine it giving effort with nothing to play for. The Jets are a rebuilding team that is playing better with Darnold and would love one last big win at home.
EAGLES: Houston is an unconvincing road team, even after the Jets gifted them a cover. Philly’s beleaguered secondary has improved and its defense gets more pressure. Foles will carry Philly to victory.
FALCONS: Atlanta’s offense has awoken! Its D has, too, with Deion Jones back. Carolina comes off a deflating loss and its offense has failed to exceed 20 points in four of its past six games. Cam looks bad.
RAMS: Rams won first meeting 34-0. What has changed? Cards lost more offensive linemen and Christian Kirk. The Rams have struggled against two solid defenses and can bounce back against Arizona’s D
49ERS: The Bears clinched the NFC North with a revenge victory against rival Green Bay. They celebrated hard in „Club dub“ and will suffer a let-down on the West Coast. Fade the trappy road favorites.
SAINTS: The Saints get to be back home where they’ve scored 79 points in their past two games. Pitt has to travel after a huge win against New England. Pitt ranks 23rd in opposing QBR, Brees will explode.
SEAHAWKS: Chiefs are 0-3 ATS without Hunt. Seahawks are run-first and can thrive with their group of backs against KC’s bottom-ranked run defense. KC’s pass rush isn’t so effective away. Russell is clutch.
RAIDERS: Raiders suffered a let-down after upsetting Pitt, but are back home (for the last time) where they’ve been very competitive. Carr has been great and he will exploit Denver’s injury-ridden secondary.
Baltimore’s fourth-rated pass defense in terms of opposing passer rating is a match for the Chargers. Baltimore has faced three other teams that boast a quarterback which ranks in the top 5 in QB rating—Kansas City, New Orleans, and Atlanta. The Ravens took KC to overtime, beat Atlanta and lost by a point in a late meltdown to New Orleans. Baltimore’s depth and quality in its secondary is elite, especially when one considers how unexceptional its pass rush is. Baltimore’s fifth-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC will be prepared for the return of running back Melvin Gordon.
The Ravens’ offense is much improved since its bye week. They all but ditched Alex Collins and instead focus on Gus Edwards and give Kenneth Dixon an added role. Edwards is a 238-pound bruiser who averages 4.8 YPC and is effective on the goal line and everywhere else. Quarterback Lamar Jackson also looks to keep his starting role in place of the lackluster Joe Flacco.
The Chargers are in a bad spot off a dramatic, playoff-clinching primetime win on the road and don’t enjoy any home field advantage. They’re 2-5 ATS in L.A.
SNF: SEAHAWKS
The Chiefs are now 0-3 ATS without Kareem Hunt. They’re getting less production out of their running backs because they have less depth and quality at the position. As a result, they’re less confident running the ball. In their past three games, they’re running it only 36% of the time, which ranks bottom-10 in the category, and are becoming more one-dimensional on offense.
Mahomes will get his lion’s share of production, but I think Seattle’s offense will be more effective because it will be more balanced. The weakness of Seattle’s pass attack is its vulnerability to sacks. But KC’s sack percentage is the sixth-lowest away from home. Russell Wilson has healthy wide receivers and Kansas City’s cornerbacks are worse than the numbers show because their ineptness has been masked by KC’s stronger pass rush at home. The Chiefs’ opposing passer rating is 104.7 on the road.
Seattle is a run-first team. It relies on a number of solid running backs, of which Rashaad Penny will hopefully return from injury. KC is second-to-last in opposing YPC. The Seahawks will use their balanced attack to control tempo and keep Mahomes off the field.
TITANS: Jacksonville’s awful offense masked how inept Washington’s D is. Skins rank 21st in opposing YPC. Titans are run-first, will run over them with Henry and shut down Washington’s injury-ridden offense.
RAVENS: Chargers in let-down spot after primetime, playoff-clinching victory. Ravens’ top-ranked defense will limit Chargers’ offense and its improved run-focused offense will keep the game close enough.
BROWNS: Cleveland can score, but Cincy can’t. Cincy will miss its starting QB, top wide receiver, and possibly its second-best receiver. Cleveland’s run D is allowing 3.8 YPC in its past three games.
COWBOYS: TB ranks last in opposing passer rating. It yields a 134 passer rating on the road. Dallas excels at home, where it can bounce back after last week’s embarrassing loss. Dallas is 5-2 ATS at home.
LIONS: Spoiler alert! Minny bounced back vs. an undermanned Miami team on the strength of its run game. But Detroit’s run D has been superb since adding Damon Harrison. Cousins continues to play awfully.
GIANTS: The Giants are still playing hard. It ranks sixth in opposing passer rating. Indy has laid clunkers lately when heavily favored and won’t cover after shutting out Dallas, before facing Tennessee.
DOLPHINS: The Jags play hard at home, but I don’t trust them to give effort on the road. Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS on the road. They have nothing left to play for, whereas Miami is still in the playoff hunt.
BILLS: NE doesn’t look like it should be laying this many points. Buffalo’s D is underrated. It ranks number one in opposing QBR and can limit Brady. NE’s run D is bottom-ranked and Buffalo is run-first.
JETS: Green Bay’s season is over and I can’t imagine it giving effort with nothing to play for. The Jets are a rebuilding team that is playing better with Darnold and would love one last big win at home.
EAGLES: Houston is an unconvincing road team, even after the Jets gifted them a cover. Philly’s beleaguered secondary has improved and its defense gets more pressure. Foles will carry Philly to victory.
FALCONS: Atlanta’s offense has awoken! Its D has, too, with Deion Jones back. Carolina comes off a deflating loss and its offense has failed to exceed 20 points in four of its past six games. Cam looks bad.
RAMS: Rams won first meeting 34-0. What has changed? Cards lost more offensive linemen and Christian Kirk. The Rams have struggled against two solid defenses and can bounce back against Arizona’s D
49ERS: The Bears clinched the NFC North with a revenge victory against rival Green Bay. They celebrated hard in „Club dub“ and will suffer a let-down on the West Coast. Fade the trappy road favorites.
SAINTS: The Saints get to be back home where they’ve scored 79 points in their past two games. Pitt has to travel after a huge win against New England. Pitt ranks 23rd in opposing QBR, Brees will explode.
SEAHAWKS: Chiefs are 0-3 ATS without Hunt. Seahawks are run-first and can thrive with their group of backs against KC’s bottom-ranked run defense. KC’s pass rush isn’t so effective away. Russell is clutch.
RAIDERS: Raiders suffered a let-down after upsetting Pitt, but are back home (for the last time) where they’ve been very competitive. Carr has been great and he will exploit Denver’s injury-ridden secondary.
