Jimmy G has highest QBR out of all QBs the last few weeks with main RB out. Also has the highest passer rating under pressure. Entire Niners receiving core has been on fire after a horrendous start to the season. It may come down to the wire as SF secondary is atrocious but I still like 49ers -3'. Tennessee hasn’t seen this team in 5 years and I doubt they figure out Shanahan's play calling tonight. I'm expecting a close affair with SF pulling away late for a 4-8 point win...say 24-17
Rams -3 ...Rams offense rank 11th in scoring, 4th in passing yards and 24th in rushing. Vikings are 12th in scoring, 10th in passing and 9th in rushing yards. The rush ranking can be attributed to Dalvin Cook, who won't be available this game. Big differences on D: Rams rank 7th in scoring defense, 16 in passing and 6th in rushing with huge play makers like Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey. Vikings D ranks 24th in scoring, 29th in passing and 27th in rushing. Vikings defense will probably be exposed in this game by the likes of Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Henderson, Michel and Matthew Stafford. Both teams need wins. Rams trying to keep up for the 1st round bye which is occupied by the Green Bay Packers, and the Vikings are looking for a wildcard spot. If possible, In the past I would consider buying a half point to get 2½ but the books, at least mine have priced half points up to 25-30 cents around 3 and that's just too much imo. I'm thinking the Rams win by at least a TD anyways. Also I like the over here with 2 very good offenses and one really poor defense. Since MIN has Thielen back, with him and Jefferson...points will be scored as there's only one Ramsey. The last 7 the Rams face a winning team, 5 went over.
Vikes without RB Dalvin Cook but should get WR Adam Thielen back.
Rams look as close to fully health as possible in week 16.
RAMS 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) vs conference opponents last 3 seasons.
RAMS 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off division game last 2 seasons.
randoms...
Shitty day yesterday that would have been much worse except I did hit a parlay that softened my losses on the day. Shake it off and move on,
Dolphins -3 ...Saints are down to their 4th string QB, a rookie in his first ever NFL start. They are decimated by COVID this week. I can see MIA putting extra attention onto Kamara tonight and making it difficult for NO to establish the run. They will have to rely on Book's playmaking, a heavy task for a rookie QB and a team with lackluster receiving options. However the Fish been playing some good ball. They've locked in defensively over the back half of the season. Sure, they've played some garbage teams, but luckily the Saints currently qualify as a garbage team. On offense, MIA is playing better than their record appears. The 1-7 start left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, but the return of Tua has helped them rattle off 6 straight wins. With the return of Waddle this week, if really should be an easy win and cover for the Fish tonight. 20-6 (Note: This is such a square play, it's bound to go south)
Maryland -4 ...Hokies have lost three straight bowl games and their head coach recently left 10 games into the season after being there since 2016. Braxton Burmeister, VT’s starting QB has entered the transfer portal and will not be playing. Their backup, Connor Blumrick, has thrown a total of 16 passes in his collegiate career. Even with Burmeister, VT’s passing offense ranks 109/130, so it’ll be even worse. He is more of a runner, but he is still pretty inexperienced. Others have opted out for the Hokies include starting WR’s Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner, who combined for 57% of the total receiving yards in the season and 8 of the 17 touchdown receptions this year. Three defensive starters are also out , all declaring for the draft. The only way I see the Hokies having success is their RB, but I think the Terps will game plan to stop the run. Mary has a great offense ranking top 15 in passing and without the key defensive starters for the Hokies, they should be able to put up points in bunches. I Mary all the way to -7 as I can see blowout possibilities today in Yankee Stadium.
Clemson -1½ and UNDER 45 ...This really comes down to me not trusting Brock Purdy to be able to score on this Tiger defense. I'm a bit concerned how the Tigers will look with Venables gone but this is still a ridiculously talented team. Iowa St’s only good win was against Okie St in a game they were favored by -7. So was it that good of a win if you were supposed to win by a TD? Breece Hall was that entire offense and now he’s gone, so I don’t see much offense for them especially against Clemsons defense. If you watched any Clemson this year you saw them improve week by week. DJ isn’t great but they’ve got two solid RBs in Shipley & Pace. Now for any concerns over the new OC & DC...both are from the staff so I don’t think much will hange. The OC is a Clemson grad so he knows the system and what Dabo is trying to do while the DC seems to be some whiz kid who I’m sure took in everything Venebals had to offer. Clemson has zero opt outs and are coached by one of the best in the business. The motivation to show up and finish strong will be there.
