College Football Picks for Week 15
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has yet to be challenged: after beating Texas by seven points in its season-opener with a new quarterback, Ohio State has coolly won every game by 18 points or more. Conversely, Indiana has struggled with teams like Iowa and Penn State – the Hoosiers beat both teams by a combined total of eight points, whereas Ohio State beat Penn State by 24 points. Indiana struggled in the trenches against both teams, as evident in the inefficiency of its ground game and in the number of sacks and tackles for loss that its offense allowed. Ohio State has an elite front seven that, helping the team rank top-four in both run defense and sacks, will help limit Indiana’s offense. Anchoring a top-ranked secondary that is laden with speed and length, safety Caleb Downs is expected to be a top-ten draft pick partly due to his coverage skills.
In this matchup, Ohio State will use its pass attack to distance itself from Indiana. As he showed in various long completions last week at Michigan, quarterback Julian Sayin is an elite deep ball thrower. He has one of the most highly-regarded wide receivers to throw to in Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State’s talent level is rated higher than Indiana’s in part because of its advantages at wide receiver and defensive back, which will make it easier for the Buckeyes to march downfield and connect on big plays. Penn State scored 24 points on Indiana in part because it could use the sort of balance and offensive line competence that Ohio State’s offense regularly enjoys to connect on the big plays on the ground and through the air to which the Hoosiers have been vulnerable all year. Unlike the Hoosiers, Ohio State wins every game easily because no other team can match its talent. Wager on Ohio State -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline in expectation of another big Buckeyes win.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
This game is the easiest game for bettors to be deceived about. Three weeks ago, Virginia crushed Duke, beating the Blue Devil 34-17 in their venue. Each game has its own dynamic, though, such that final score results in a given game can be the product of events that unfolded rather than of an irreparable difference in the quality of both teams. Just consider that Anderson Castle, who accumulated five rushing touchdowns in his team’s last two games, had three carries against Virginia. Leading rusher Nate Sheppard, who averages 5.5 YPC this year, had all of twelve carries. If Duke simply had better play-calling and execution, then it would never have been in a position in which it had to become a one-dimensional passing offense. Then, it could have exploited a Virginia run defense that plagued the team in its losses to NC State and Wake Forest teams that rank similarly to Duke in terms of rushing.
Objectively speaking, one has to expect Duke to be able to execute better than it did against Virginia: the Blue Devils were 4-0 with a +60 point differential against the four opponents (NC State, California, North Carolina, and Wake Forest) that they shared with Virginia, who finished 2-2 with a zero point differential against those same teams.
Duke is a team that can seem confusing because of how low its ceiling is. We saw the low ceiling in its loss to UConn as well as its loss to Virginia. With Duke riding a win streak, with everything on the line, and with Virginia’s potential to fail to take the Blue Devils seriously after recently destroying them and after most recently experiencing the jubilation of finally defeating their archrival, the Blue Devils will play closer to their high potential than Virginia. For the above reasons, bet on Duke +3.5 at -113 with BetOnline.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State has yet to be challenged: after beating Texas by seven points in its season-opener with a new quarterback, Ohio State has coolly won every game by 18 points or more. Conversely, Indiana has struggled with teams like Iowa and Penn State – the Hoosiers beat both teams by a combined total of eight points, whereas Ohio State beat Penn State by 24 points. Indiana struggled in the trenches against both teams, as evident in the inefficiency of its ground game and in the number of sacks and tackles for loss that its offense allowed. Ohio State has an elite front seven that, helping the team rank top-four in both run defense and sacks, will help limit Indiana’s offense. Anchoring a top-ranked secondary that is laden with speed and length, safety Caleb Downs is expected to be a top-ten draft pick partly due to his coverage skills.
In this matchup, Ohio State will use its pass attack to distance itself from Indiana. As he showed in various long completions last week at Michigan, quarterback Julian Sayin is an elite deep ball thrower. He has one of the most highly-regarded wide receivers to throw to in Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State’s talent level is rated higher than Indiana’s in part because of its advantages at wide receiver and defensive back, which will make it easier for the Buckeyes to march downfield and connect on big plays. Penn State scored 24 points on Indiana in part because it could use the sort of balance and offensive line competence that Ohio State’s offense regularly enjoys to connect on the big plays on the ground and through the air to which the Hoosiers have been vulnerable all year. Unlike the Hoosiers, Ohio State wins every game easily because no other team can match its talent. Wager on Ohio State -4.5 at -110 with BetOnline in expectation of another big Buckeyes win.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
This game is the easiest game for bettors to be deceived about. Three weeks ago, Virginia crushed Duke, beating the Blue Devil 34-17 in their venue. Each game has its own dynamic, though, such that final score results in a given game can be the product of events that unfolded rather than of an irreparable difference in the quality of both teams. Just consider that Anderson Castle, who accumulated five rushing touchdowns in his team’s last two games, had three carries against Virginia. Leading rusher Nate Sheppard, who averages 5.5 YPC this year, had all of twelve carries. If Duke simply had better play-calling and execution, then it would never have been in a position in which it had to become a one-dimensional passing offense. Then, it could have exploited a Virginia run defense that plagued the team in its losses to NC State and Wake Forest teams that rank similarly to Duke in terms of rushing.
Objectively speaking, one has to expect Duke to be able to execute better than it did against Virginia: the Blue Devils were 4-0 with a +60 point differential against the four opponents (NC State, California, North Carolina, and Wake Forest) that they shared with Virginia, who finished 2-2 with a zero point differential against those same teams.
Duke is a team that can seem confusing because of how low its ceiling is. We saw the low ceiling in its loss to UConn as well as its loss to Virginia. With Duke riding a win streak, with everything on the line, and with Virginia’s potential to fail to take the Blue Devils seriously after recently destroying them and after most recently experiencing the jubilation of finally defeating their archrival, the Blue Devils will play closer to their high potential than Virginia. For the above reasons, bet on Duke +3.5 at -113 with BetOnline.
