-week 15 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
ytd: +11.85

been a much more volatile year than i like to see, but considering that going into week 10 i was down over 13 units, i will gladly take the last few weeks of profit.

ULL -5

Louisville +10/ML +320

Buffalo +15/ML +450

Army +11

Arkansas State +11/ML +350

***BIG PLAY - Bama +10***/ML +300

USF +7.5/ML +250

leans on the others:

pitt
wash
ariz
haw
fiu
tulsa
vt
ok

may upgrade one or possibly two more


:cheers:
 
gl joe. love the ull tonight. prolly on buf with you although pretty hard to get in front of that train. not sure bufs can get the stops needed. the one i really question is sf. saw most of their games and cost me a few bucks. with the exception of the last game, thought grothe was awful. wvu should crush them. if they get behind, i look for them to fall apart. why?
 
thanks scraps...hope we can cash tonight, although it looks almost too easy. was expecting to lay a td here.

the strength (i use the word lightly, as their defense is pretty bad) of this buff defense is their secondary, and i think they have the guys to not only contain the pass enough to make the game close, but to contain nate davis when he runs as well. i also think the only way to play defense against this ball state team is to run and control the clock, two things i am very confident they will be able to do with relative ease. ball's defense is terrible against the run, so buff should run run run to keep ball's offense off the field. they won't give ball easy breaks like most of these mac teams because they take care of the football.

usf has the type of defense that gives wvu fits, and i just don't expect wvu to slow down usf enough to blow them out. i can certainly see a 10-14 pt game, but not much more than that. i was way off on this team this year, expecting them to be in prime position to run the table which was obviously a joke, but this line is a joke imo. if this is the first bigeast game where to you put this thing? pk to -3 i think...you adjust that upwards of 4.5 to 5 due to some awful usf performances, but i've seen wvu all year and they haven't impressed me at all either. think usf is the type of team that plays much better when the expectations are off the table. don't think they've mailed it in as it would have been easy to quit after the rutgers performance and they came back and beat a decent uconn team. grothe hasn't been himself lately, but he's a good guy to bet on as an underdog imo. and i like their backs, particularly that kid jamar taylor who doesn't get enough touches. they've clearly been overvalued this year, but i like them to fight hard in this spot.

the concern i have with tulsa is obviously all on the defensive side of the ball. i just have a hard time laying the big number with a team that is so poor defensively
 
i am nervous (as always) tonight. desormeaux is not moving any where near as well as he did the first quarter of the season. we also have fenroy not 100% and the whole team coming off some demoralizing games. pretty much betting on these guys being healthier than they have been and mtsu being a step down in competition (all be it not by much the way they have been flowing). at the same time...mtsu takes a huge step up. this is a huge game for the ull home crowd and i expect the energy to be a factor and hopefully push them to near the level they where playing at before desormeaux's injury. considering raising my stakes in this one.

great comments on buff and the ability to control the clock/pace of the game is the strongest point.

i love the sf backs as well but wvu is stout against the run. i actually have been impressed by wvu after writing them off early on. so sf puts together one decent game on senior day and now you are ready to adjust the line close to pre season expectations? i do not agree with usf d being a difficult one for wv. i think they are not disciplined and do not tackle well. basically, i see them the same way i do the offense of usf...mistake prone. now if you make a mistake against white, devine or a few backs /receivers it's 6 very quick. have not made the play butting warming too it.

same concern with tulsa although different team in tulsa. think they hit 60. like the over here as well.
 
also...any thoughts on the total tonight? been looking at it and it seems that ull either scores 40 or gives up 40...or both. that leaves 20 to the other team, don't see either one not getting 20...over looks pretty sound.
 
"so sf puts together one decent game on senior day and now you are ready to adjust the line close to pre season expectations?"

they weren't even that impressive in that game...had usf and barely got it. i'm not ready to adjust the line based on that game, but i think the current line is off --and we know why -- based on usf's performance ats this year, particularly on the road. when looking for line value, i think that's important. maybe they are still overrated, but i think the fact that this thing would be a pk to -3 means there has been a pretty big adjustment and imo an over-adjustment. usf has been big underdogs in each of the last two years and have won su with pretty good defensive performances. their defense is good against the run and is fast. i think it matches up well, so i guess we'll have to agree to disagree there. i guess i don't see why you're so impressed with them. they got beat by cinci at home, lost at pitt, beat what imo is one of the most overrated teams in the country in uconn, which isn't a relatively tough place to play, beat a disappointing auburn team at home, and had a fairly impressive victory over what i believe to be a very inconsistent louisville team. those are their last 5 games, and i just don't see much there that i'm impressed with. they often falter down the stretch, they have the most one-dimensional offense in football that happens to be usf's strength on the defensive side of the ball, they lack leadership at both qb and HC, huge mismatches in both respects in this one, and usf actually has a better turnover differential. their defense has greatly improved against the run, but usf likes to pass to set up the run, and i think they'll struggle with that. i just don't see many areas where wvu has the significant advantage, and i'm getting over a td. must play for me, but bol bud
 
total looks pretty tight to me scraps...i was thinking around 35-21 or 35-24. if the game goes how we want it, i think it probably has a decent shot of going under because we will run the hell out of the clock in the 4th. plus the whole mid-week angle where schools usually don't score as much. tough one for me to call, but i think i'd lean under gun to my head
 
i give both teams a pass in their last games. pitt played very well and needed that game way more than wvu. usf does get a bit of credit in my book for rebounding from the rutgers beatdown but uconn didn't really show up.
so prior to that, wvu goes 6-1 with the 1 loss being in ot to a cinci team i absolutely love. usf 3-4 with a 3 game losing streak to polish it off. they looked awful through most of that stretch. they seem like team that has something inherently wrong with it, playing no where near expectations. also think wvu has a very strong homefield.
i would much prefer this under 7 but looking pretty hard at it.

hope you understand i'm not arguing...this is really helpful to me in breaking games down. actually question you because i have allot of respect for your ability and we often wee games in the same light...
 
broadwayjoe said:
ytd: +11.85

been a much more volatile year than i like to see, but considering that going into week 10 i was down over 13 units, i will gladly take the last few weeks of profit.

ULL -5

Louisville +10/ML +320

Buffalo +15/ML +450

Army +11

Arkansas State +11/ML +350

***BIG PLAY - Bama +10***/ML +300

USF +7.5/ML +250

leans on the others:

pitt
wash
ariz
haw
fiu
tulsa
vt
ok

may upgrade one or possibly two more


:cheers:
Click to expand...

Is there one tOSU fan on the board not backing Bama?

I'm thinking you boys' detest for everything Gator is coloring your opinions...good health on that ML....:shake:

I do like ULL, UB & Da Ville.

Mully :cheers:
 
scraps@midnight said:
hope you understand i'm not arguing...this is really helpful to me in breaking games down. actually question you because i have allot of respect for your ability and we often wee games in the same light...
Click to expand...

one of the most beneficial things about this site is the disagreements among good betting minds. if i just thought you were being an asshole, i wouldn't engage your criticism of the play. i respect your opinion as well, and you definitely make some good points. just because i happen to disagree with a few of your assessments doesn't mean that i can't see your reasoning behind them, and it surely doesn't mean that i'm correct.

so don't worry about me taking something you say the wrong way or anything like that...i realize there are plenty of reasons on both sides of every matchup, and it helps immensely to see the other side more clearer.

back to the matchup, i can't really put my finger on why they aren't playing to expectations. they seem to start really slow and look very disinterested in the first half in a lot of games for whatever reason. grothe in particular. not seeing the same fire and passion out of him as before. part of my thought process includes the mindset change from being the hunter to being the hunted, and the probability of that turning around this week, given some of the evidence of the uconn game. obviously, i could be way off on this part of it, making this wager partially reliant on my instinct and projections of what i expect to happen without a lot of hard evidence to back that up other than my opinions on grothe/leavitt vs white/billybob. there are some other components such as line value, history, matchups which i mentioned, but without that change i'm anticipating, i could very well be in trouble.

:shake:
 
MrMulligan said:
Is there one tOSU fan on the board not backing Bama?

I'm thinking you boys' detest for everything Gator is coloring your opinions...good health on that ML....:shake:

I do like ULL, UB & Da Ville.

Mully :cheers:
Click to expand...


hahaha. mully, my hatred for florida has about as much as to do with this play as my feelings on ball state and ucla had to do with my big plays from last week. i have no problem cashing in with teams i hate or cashing in against teams i like. florida is an excellent all around football team, but i don't think florida has played a team even close to what bama is this year. they've showed me they can beat team's asses that they are clearly superior than, but they've also showed me they're beatable. have they been underrated this year? absolutely. so has bama. and we'll see how good florida's defense is for sure this week...i don't think we really know right now. bama isn't the citadel, miami fl, kentucky, or south carolina offensively. none of the teams florida played had an above average offensive attack imo. if they hold bama to under 4 tds, i'll be shocked. if they don't do that, and they still cover, i'll be even more shocked.

bol on the others
 
Well, I'm a tOSU fan and I took UF and laid the 10 on Monday of this week, despite the opinions of some of the more respected, experienced cappers than myself on this board.

In fact, Bama reminds me a bit of my team from last year in terms of overachievement and being ahead of schedule. I think the same kind of exposure lies ahead for them on Saturday.

Florida will roll 'em.
 
broadwayjoe said:
hahaha. mully, my hatred for florida has about as much as to do with this play as my feelings on ball state and ucla had to do with my big plays from last week. i have no problem cashing in with teams i hate or cashing in against teams i like. florida is an excellent all around football team, but i don't think florida has played a team even close to what bama is this year. they've showed me they can beat team's asses that they are clearly superior than, but they've also showed me they're beatable. have they been underrated this year? absolutely. so has bama. and we'll see how good florida's defense is for sure this week...i don't think we really know right now. bama isn't the citadel, miami fl, kentucky, or south carolina offensively. none of the teams florida played had an above average offensive attack imo. if they hold bama to under 4 tds, i'll be shocked. if they don't do that, and they still cover, i'll be even more shocked.

bol on the others
Click to expand...

:shake:

Bro, didn't mean to come into your thread and accuse you of blindly taking Bama...thanks for taking my remarks the right way.

That being said, Kristin is the 1st tOSU fan to even say anything positive about UF...which I certainly understand given the UF/tOSU CFB & CBB NC games.

The "other side" of your argument for backing Bama must state FOR A FACT that Bama (who's SOS is worse than the Gators) hasn't come close to facing an Offense or Defense or Special Teams like UF's all year.

I'm actually rooting for a TD win as there are many cappers I respect on Bama and winning the bookies $$$ is what we're all about.

Mully :cheers:
 
MrMulligan said:
:shake:


That being said, Kristin is the 1st tOSU fan to even say anything positive about UF...which I certainly understand given the UF/tOSU CFB & CBB NC games.


Mully
Click to expand...

I didn't say anything positive about 'em. Just that they'll win. ;-)

:15_10_5:
 
MrMulligan said:
:shake:



The "other side" of your argument for backing Bama must state FOR A FACT that Bama (who's SOS is worse than the Gators) hasn't come close to facing an Offense or Defense or Special Teams like UF's all year.


Mully :cheers:
Click to expand...

no question, mully...completely agree with you there. but i'm not laying 10 with this team either :shake:
 
great start joe. i am so pissed right now i just can't tell you. got screwed around and couldn't get my play in. hate my local!!!!!!!!!!!! $1000 pissed away...

i will be pulling for you...about to be 21-7 12:00 to go in the second...
 
wow...just checked the score...35-28 11 to go. hope ull has the rock last! thought they were going to run away with it. still pulling for you joe...
 
sweet cash on the bulls ml joe. nice big play for me ats, going into saturday with a bit of cushion is comforting. looking like tulsa is going to be my only early one. maybe bama later but you know how i feel about the number 10! good luck on army sir.
 
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