Week 15 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
They might be #11 or #13 in the AP or Coaches Poll, but they're #1 in our hearts...the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have pulled the most upsets this season at 4:
+180, +134, +260, +270
Two teams have pulled 3 upsets: Arkansas and Indiana
Rice joined the big ML payers:
Kansas State +1400, Rice +1300, Maryland +1143, Michigan State +991
+180, +134, +260, +270
Two teams have pulled 3 upsets: Arkansas and Indiana
Rice joined the big ML payers:
Kansas State +1400, Rice +1300, Maryland +1143, Michigan State +991
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
It's a bit ironic for me that you mention them....IMHO they might be one of the few favs that lose this week.
opcorn:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yeah they are in a difficult spot, off huge game, with important game next week. Troy rediscovered how to play competitive football last week (sucks for me), so it is possible I suppose. Coastal has just answered every bell. If they lose I know I won't be on the Troy ML.
Coastal is actually near perfect ATS on the year vs FBS, 8-1. Throw out their 22 pt win vs Campbell (-27.5), their only other noncover was a half point loss 23-6 (-17.5). Fading Coastal this year has been bad for one's health.
Coastal is actually near perfect ATS on the year vs FBS, 8-1. Throw out their 22 pt win vs Campbell (-27.5), their only other noncover was a half point loss 23-6 (-17.5). Fading Coastal this year has been bad for one's health.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
This dog is tiny, but UVA is a dog, and I expect them to win.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
very sad, this was one the best things bout the Rona, sucked so many games got axed along the way but it cool we still betting ncaa football every week!! Let’s just hope they don’t cancel to many bowl games!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate coastal now!! Lol. I know I’m gonna be looking at laffy taffy! Kinda surprised that the most cause until last week they had been favs quite a bit lately. I do remember that glorious week where the sun belt laid waste to the big12 w coastal being the smallest but easiest dog vs Ku. Kinda hilarious looking back and thinking they were td dogs to the suck that is Kansas!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
is hooker gonna play for Hokies? I know he left Clemson game really early but dunno what happened to him? Think I agree uva the better team, they seem to have found a qb, BC backup qb did shred the defense tho! If it wasn’t for all the red zone turnovers by the backup BC would have won that game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
You'll like the Under I suspect.
UAB very strong running team. Hit and miss passing. Excellent D. I ML'd Rice vs UAB last year, game was maddening. I lost and pulled out all my hair - not really but you get the point. Rice is much better this year, UAB is tough though. I don't think Rice's O from last week will be good enough to beat UAB. If Collins and Trammel can play they have a shot. I ML'd against UAB with LaTech and let me just say it was very hard. Very hard. But LaTech did win.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
rice O hasn’t really been good enough any week, not like they had any numbers last week, Marshall just turned it over a bunch correct?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yes, but outside of that Rice just kind of ground out some yards, played keep away, 3 yards and cloud of dust type stuff. Exactly what they want to be, but even more conservative with the backup QB. With/If their #1 QB and #1 WR back, if they are, I don't know, that will give them a better chance to hold onto the ball longer and sustain some drives and move the ball better.
Before that game, Rice QB had a 10-1 TD-INT ratio and led CUSA in passer efficiency and they were passing for 100 more yards this year that last year.
They've only played 4 games, but I think your perception of them is overly clouded by the game vs North Texas. And I get it, very rare and uncharacteristic that a team struggles offensively vs North Texas. But in their prior two games the Rice O was pretty good, vs the likes of MTSU and SMiss that is.
UAB will be the best defense they have seen no matter who plays on O or not for them.
Before that game, Rice QB had a 10-1 TD-INT ratio and led CUSA in passer efficiency and they were passing for 100 more yards this year that last year.
They've only played 4 games, but I think your perception of them is overly clouded by the game vs North Texas. And I get it, very rare and uncharacteristic that a team struggles offensively vs North Texas. But in their prior two games the Rice O was pretty good, vs the likes of MTSU and SMiss that is.
UAB will be the best defense they have seen no matter who plays on O or not for them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
maybe so. Mfers played the whole 1st half in n.Texas territory and couldn’t score shit.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Baylor (I don’t see why Okla St is favored. Deep malaise in that program this year)
Memphis
Miss State
Wake Forest
Iowa
Maryland
North Carolina
No idea if covid will play a part in any of these games, but absent some late announcement of players missing the game this looks like one of the best slates of dogs this year
Didn’t list W Virginia. This is a good spot for them, but I like the better with the points
And the Clemson/M Dame game is already on the board and I already bet N Dame +7x. May take them on the ML as well.
Memphis
Miss State
Wake Forest
Iowa
Maryland
North Carolina
No idea if covid will play a part in any of these games, but absent some late announcement of players missing the game this looks like one of the best slates of dogs this year
Didn’t list W Virginia. This is a good spot for them, but I like the better with the points
And the Clemson/M Dame game is already on the board and I already bet N Dame +7x. May take them on the ML as well.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I'd like to see the season last an extra week into December every year. Keep the 12-game schedule, but spread it out more.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Thanks for the heads-up, though I will be taking the Tigers.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
no doubt
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Next week I will play UF plus and moneyline. Bama has a huge problem with high-scoring teams at the end of the year. Bama is 1-12 ATS since 2011 in game 10 or later against teams averaging 36+ points per game. Only exception was playoff vs. Washington (covered by 1.5), after long layoff,
The 12 ATS losses were to Clemson x3, UGA x3, Aub x2, A&M. Miss St, Ohio State, and Okla.
The 12 ATS losses were to Clemson x3, UGA x3, Aub x2, A&M. Miss St, Ohio State, and Okla.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Did you mean to put Rutgers in there instead of Maryland?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Terps as dogs should be money! Lol. I gots no clue on that one. I know Rutgers will give us effort but I fear they running out of gas.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
On my radar, have not gone much more beyond the surface on these though:
Southern Miss - plenty to not like about USM, not much to like about FAU either. It's an FAU team who only managed to score 24 on UMass! Held to 3 last week at GaSouthern. Home finale for whomever is left on the USM squad. Haven't played in 3 weeks, but are off two straight covers as +8 and +9 dogs at WKU and home vs UTSA.
UTEP - Weird weird year for UTEP. UTEP was kind of on the up right? How about they are 0-3 vs CUSA teams! I myself was surprised when I saw that (losses vs LT, Char and UTSA). They've been dealt an awful hand with cancellations and the situation in El Paso. Hard to envision how they come out here, but North Texas this big of a favorite? I know NT has the potential on offense...that potential is just rarely reached. NT D is bad. Problem is UTEP's style probably doesn't threaten NT D much. I don't know, just seems like the line and odds are overly high, but not a ton of faith in it.
Memphis - Memphis O has come off the tracks it would appear. Just 300 and 280 TOTAL yards the last 2 weeks! Crazy for team that was averaging 518 their previous 7! Brady White's last game? Final home game for Memphis, a dog to a team I view as their equal? I must be the dummy because oddsmakers don't see these teams as equal.
Rutgers - Hard to know what to expect out of Maryland. Rutgers outcomes have been so up and down this year, but off such a poor game I expect a bounce back effort. Program has seen life breathed into it this year makes me think they go down swinging. Maryland? Who knows.
Northern Illinois - Huskies trying to avoid winless season. Team was on the cusp of a win at Western 2 weeks ago. Were in the game for 2+ quarters vs Toledo (Toledo 17 4th Q points). Definite signs of growth out of this very very young NIU team this year. Their O should give them a shot and the D while not good has played a lot of ball now. Eastern Mich D also not good...and EM is off one of their super bowl games vs rival WM. Seems like a game that could go either way.
Michigan State - Strange huh that Sparty was able to knock off Go Blue and beat the B1G West winner but got embarrassed in all their other games? Tells me that when things align, they are not totally incompetent. Hard to gauge Penn State. In a way, I really don't think they are actually playing better than they were earlier in the season, because at times they had some decent play for parts of games earlier in the year, but were unable to get the wins. The only difference now they are getting wins so obviously they are doing something better, I still just feel they are pretty vulnerable and don't give much confidence when they take the field.
Wyoming - Have to check and see QB status. Really do like Wyoming defense and haven't been high on Boise this year.
Georgia Southern - another game I want to get QB status on as Werts DNP last week and I don't think I like the backup but we'll see. Not a stellar year out of them, a lot of stuff has happened off the field. Did have games vs Army and GaState going their way late but couldn't hold on. Will hope for Canteen to be a go for GaSo secondary as well. Ga So has won the last two in the series as DD dogs! App St could maybe be a little deflated off ULL loss and they haven't had their typical season either...scored 23 or less 3 of last 4 games.
Mississippi State - have played two fairly strong games their last two but haven't got the payoff the players need and want. I don't have a good feel for Auburn football, but it looks like they are fading down the stretch.
Southern Miss - plenty to not like about USM, not much to like about FAU either. It's an FAU team who only managed to score 24 on UMass! Held to 3 last week at GaSouthern. Home finale for whomever is left on the USM squad. Haven't played in 3 weeks, but are off two straight covers as +8 and +9 dogs at WKU and home vs UTSA.
UTEP - Weird weird year for UTEP. UTEP was kind of on the up right? How about they are 0-3 vs CUSA teams! I myself was surprised when I saw that (losses vs LT, Char and UTSA). They've been dealt an awful hand with cancellations and the situation in El Paso. Hard to envision how they come out here, but North Texas this big of a favorite? I know NT has the potential on offense...that potential is just rarely reached. NT D is bad. Problem is UTEP's style probably doesn't threaten NT D much. I don't know, just seems like the line and odds are overly high, but not a ton of faith in it.
Memphis - Memphis O has come off the tracks it would appear. Just 300 and 280 TOTAL yards the last 2 weeks! Crazy for team that was averaging 518 their previous 7! Brady White's last game? Final home game for Memphis, a dog to a team I view as their equal? I must be the dummy because oddsmakers don't see these teams as equal.
Rutgers - Hard to know what to expect out of Maryland. Rutgers outcomes have been so up and down this year, but off such a poor game I expect a bounce back effort. Program has seen life breathed into it this year makes me think they go down swinging. Maryland? Who knows.
Northern Illinois - Huskies trying to avoid winless season. Team was on the cusp of a win at Western 2 weeks ago. Were in the game for 2+ quarters vs Toledo (Toledo 17 4th Q points). Definite signs of growth out of this very very young NIU team this year. Their O should give them a shot and the D while not good has played a lot of ball now. Eastern Mich D also not good...and EM is off one of their super bowl games vs rival WM. Seems like a game that could go either way.
Michigan State - Strange huh that Sparty was able to knock off Go Blue and beat the B1G West winner but got embarrassed in all their other games? Tells me that when things align, they are not totally incompetent. Hard to gauge Penn State. In a way, I really don't think they are actually playing better than they were earlier in the season, because at times they had some decent play for parts of games earlier in the year, but were unable to get the wins. The only difference now they are getting wins so obviously they are doing something better, I still just feel they are pretty vulnerable and don't give much confidence when they take the field.
Wyoming - Have to check and see QB status. Really do like Wyoming defense and haven't been high on Boise this year.
Georgia Southern - another game I want to get QB status on as Werts DNP last week and I don't think I like the backup but we'll see. Not a stellar year out of them, a lot of stuff has happened off the field. Did have games vs Army and GaState going their way late but couldn't hold on. Will hope for Canteen to be a go for GaSo secondary as well. Ga So has won the last two in the series as DD dogs! App St could maybe be a little deflated off ULL loss and they haven't had their typical season either...scored 23 or less 3 of last 4 games.
Mississippi State - have played two fairly strong games their last two but haven't got the payoff the players need and want. I don't have a good feel for Auburn football, but it looks like they are fading down the stretch.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
We’re on the same page with 4 of those looks like but I cannot see Gus Malzakn losing this game...he knows he’ll possibly lose his job if he does and I think he’ll have his squad playing good enough to win here. Penn State has turned the corner methinks they beat Sparty. I was interested in Ga Southern but I do not like the double revenge angle for Appy St. I gotta look into the other two still....
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Tell us why? I’m not sold on ND totally yet either.
while I got you.....what you make Clemson/Bama?
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Messy St defense is capable. For sure. This is my own take, but if Gus loses this game I think it’s over.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Miss State D, yes.
Gus might want to save his job, that doesn't mean his players are good enough to do it no matter how bad he wants them to. Without being privy to inside info, nobody knows how serious and how into any of these teams and players are at this point. Off Iron Bowl loss, off home finale loss now playing team off a bye who has put two solid games together. What are chances we get Auburn's best?
I guess Troy is a good example last week, they rose up out of nowhere when I fully expected them to roll over and die as they had done their previous three games.
So maybe Auburn comes out with a great effort and play this week?
Or maybe they'll be like Kansas State who all of a sudden forgot how to tackle and looked like a JV team on defense.
I suppose you have to assume the players are going to care each and every game. So A game vs A game, I think I will still take Miss State at this point in the season. Problem is we usually don't see two teams delivering their A games.
Gus might want to save his job, that doesn't mean his players are good enough to do it no matter how bad he wants them to. Without being privy to inside info, nobody knows how serious and how into any of these teams and players are at this point. Off Iron Bowl loss, off home finale loss now playing team off a bye who has put two solid games together. What are chances we get Auburn's best?
I guess Troy is a good example last week, they rose up out of nowhere when I fully expected them to roll over and die as they had done their previous three games.
So maybe Auburn comes out with a great effort and play this week?
Or maybe they'll be like Kansas State who all of a sudden forgot how to tackle and looked like a JV team on defense.
I suppose you have to assume the players are going to care each and every game. So A game vs A game, I think I will still take Miss State at this point in the season. Problem is we usually don't see two teams delivering their A games.
southern and wyoming due make sense. Coastal and BYU will be off a big game and byu's season crushed - I think the undefeated team that loses late in year statistically does very bad the next week. Not to mention byu lost to sdstu last year - personally love the under in that game much better, because san diego state may not score a point but they should hold up defensively.
unc - i just have felt miami is overrated all year and unc is a team that when they show up is a different class they just take every other week off but feel they should show up to this one
unc - i just have felt miami is overrated all year and unc is a team that when they show up is a different class they just take every other week off but feel they should show up to this one
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I have a hard time understanding how Auburn gets up for this game. Got hammered by their rival last week. Senior night last week with all the seniors given a big sendoff. Now they have to go on the road for a meaningless game, and a night game at that.
I like Wyoming a little against Boise. I always take a look at Wyoming when they are playing at home. But the fact Boise needs a win to make sure they are in title game means I'll probably pass. Perfect weather for Wyoming--wind chill below zero, snow in the air, wind about 15 mph, but Boise is as used to cold as Wyoming, so that's a push
Lean to Baylor too. They play hard every game, no one ever blows them out, they are playing better now than they were earlier in the year, may be the most physical defense in the Big 12. Oklahoma State looks like they've got nothing left in the tank and even though people have been claiming all year Spencer Sanders is a good QB, I've never seen him prove it and this is one of the few games all year where Baylor's QB is as good as the team they are playing.
Only problem for me is I make it a point to never bet on losing teams to do anything and despite playing hard all year Baylor has wins only against Kansas and Kansas St.
So I have to of my principles in conflict in this game--I love to bet the most physical team, the team that hits the hardest, and that's Baylor, but I hate to bet on losing teams and that's Baylor too
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
True on all accounts. I wasn’t saying the guys show up or don’t. I truly don’t know. But I think if he loses this one they move on. Just opinion.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Agree.
Think I have heard the angle referred to as "the unbeaten let down", when an undefeated team with some aspirational goals suffers their first loss of the year, they are flat the following week. I have not stats on it, just heard it cited. Like you say, SD St is really going to struggle to score points and their D is good enough to challenge BYU.
Prior to Miami blowing out Duke they had a 1 pt win at VT, a 3 pt win at NCSt and a 5 pt win vs UVA. Then beat Pitt by 12 without Pickett. So the Duke game was just about Duke sucking ,and their typical 5 turnovers per game. Likely give Miami some confidence and feel good about themselves, but UNC is going to challenge them in ways they haven't been challenged in quite some time. I haven't read this to be the case, but with UNC's preseason goals gone, I can see them going all in on this one to salvage something. Still, UNC D always makes one worry.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Something else on the Auburn - Miss State game...Auburn is off playing two top 10 teams where they fared better than Miss St did vs both those teams. That would imply that Auburn is better set up to have a strong game this week vs a weaker team. And once upon a time, like almost all year, Miss St O was pretty easy to shut down and Kevin Steele should know how to do it. Just seems at this point in the season it is hard to back Auburn. Not a stretch to see a couple plays going differently and they lose to Tennessee. Tough game to try and get ahead of. I suspect we will know pretty early what is going to happen.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I would do it but I'm not sure of the SDQL code for this so time to call in the big dog so-to-speak. @mrpickem would you mind reading the quotes below and maybe giving us a query or two on how "unbeaten letdowns" have fared....specifically, we're talking about the possibility of BYU losing to SDST this week. Let's see some hard numbers if possible!
:shake:
:shake:
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Alabama -10.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Not sure exactly what you looking for but teams that lost their first game on game # 8 or after only cover 43.6% in next game, but have covered 6 of L10
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Mr. P!! turns out that code was pretty easy!! I added my little flavor to it and added the facts that BYU is playing at home and is coming off a road loss and the SU record is 85-19 for a win% of 82%......think I'll pass on this one. Not just because of this query but because it also jives pretty well with my other queries which was in favor of BYU. BOL to you guys if you play it though!
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
OTOH I think @s--k may be on to something here with Auburn possibly losing to MSU. Consider below the query for Coach Malzahn's team's record in games after they played Alabama. He is 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS. The times his team was a fav he was 2-2 SU. The wins came against teams prolly with poor defenses (Just going off memory here as Memphis and Purdue are not normally known for their defense. Also note these are obviously bowl games as the Iron Bowl is normally the last game of the year. This game is the first time we see a GM coached team in a road game in this situation. Definitely peeks my interest.....
opcorn:
opcorn:
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Disclaimer****OTOH I think @s--k may be on to something here with Auburn possibly losing to MSU. Consider below the query for Coach Malzahn's team's record in games after they played Alabama. He is 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS. The times his team was a fav he was 2-2 SU. The wins came against teams prolly with poor defenses (Just going off memory here as Memphis and Purdue are not normally known for their defense. Also note these are obviously bowl games as the Iron Bowl is normally the last game of the year. This game is the first time we see a GM coached team in a road game in this situation. Definitely peeks my interest.....
View attachment 52373
MSU is not shown on the query for reasons I do not know...I researched the code and I think I'm right but I could be wrong....
2daBank
Voice of Reason
seems bout right. Bama just looks like far and away the best team in the country. Assuming that -10 is the shortest spread you would have vs anyone?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Damnit...Kan/Tex ppd.....I was going to back the Jayhawks again this week.
fficebasketball:
might be better off. Lol. I don’t think it was ku improving last week as much as tech sucking and not finishing drives. Of course who knows how into it horns be?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Did you and I both not play Southern Miss? I literally forgot!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
4/5 of the UTEP starting secondary from two games ago (Charlotte 10/24) are in the transfer portal! Lowe being the biggest name, Barnes, Harrell and Inyang.
Dimel:
UTEP had an issue in the secondary vs UTSA when they were short handed and then injuries forced some youth into action unexpectedly.
Dimel:
UTEP had an issue in the secondary vs UTSA when they were short handed and then injuries forced some youth into action unexpectedly.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I didn't forget. I was distracted and not able to unfortunately.....
but there is more opportunity coming up today and tomorrow....
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
It was going to be the biggest upset of the season....a 30pt dog was going to win outright!
