TNF: Chargers
Kansas City owns a mediocre pass defense that ranks 15th in opposing passer rating. Its pass defense numbers look great at home, but it’s also gotten extremely lucky in that regard. The last quarterbacks who came to play at Arrowhead include Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles. Conversely, Philip RIvers is having a career year, evidenced by his 114 passer rating. In his first game against the Chiefs, he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been vulnerable lately, allowing Lamar Jackson to have a career high in passer rating and Derek Carr to achieve a 123 passer rating the week before. It will be no match for Rivers.
Conversely, the Chargers boast one of the league’s better pass defenses. It ranks eighth in opposing passer rating despite having faced the Steelers, Rams, and Chiefs once. They can also play keep-away with their deep talent at running back against KC’s bottom-ranked defense. Melvin Gordon could return or Austin Ekeler could continue, depending on who’s healthy.
The Chiefs are 0-2 ATS since losing Kareem Hunt. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS on the road.
SNF: EAGLES
The Eagles are the more desperate team because they need a win to stay alive in the wildcard hunt and the Rams have already clinched a playoff berth. More importantly, for match-up reasons, this is too many points to be giving the Eagles. The Rams’ pass defense has been fortunate lately to face Detroit and a rusty Mitch Trubisky. But it still ranks below average in opposing passer rating. Philly’s Carson Wentz has achieved a passer rating of 98 or higher in his last three games. He’ll help keep his team in it.
The Eagles missed a rush attack in its nail-biting loss at Dallas. But the Rams rank last in opposing YPC. Josh Adams has been a very positive recent discovery for the Eagles. He brings power and explosiveness and serves as a nice stylistic complement to Darren Sproles.
The Rams will score their share of points. Philadelphia’s defensive effort would be helped by the return of linebacker Jordan Hicks. Either way, Philly’s offense can keep pace.
The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Rams, 5-1 ATS in their last six games at the Rams.
CHARGERS: Chiefs 0-2 ATS without Kareem Hunt. Rivers having career year, will keep his team in it against Chiefs passing D that ranks 15th in opp. passer rating. Gordon could return, Ekeler hopefully healthy.
JETS: Three of Houston’s four road wins have been by three points or less, also two road losses. Watson’s passer rating 15 points lower away. Jets’ sixth-ranked passing D will keep Houston scoring low.
BRONCOS: Browns unreliable road team, 1-5 SU away including loss in Oakland, 1-24 SU L25 away. Watch out for status of top corner Denzel Ward. Denver is run-first team, Browns rank 22nd in opposing YPC.
FALCONS: Fading Cardinals in early game on east coast. Cards o-line has three rookies and a bum off the streets, scored 10 points or fewer in two of last three games. Atlanta doesn’t need to score much.
LIONS: Buffalo off deflating loss. Bills are run-first, rank fifth in run-play frequency, so bad match-up against Detroit’s improved run D. Lions rank 4th in sack percentage, can limit Allen’s running.
PACKERS: Packers received a boost when their coach got fired. They are 7-1 ATS L8 in Chicago. Bears are offensively challenged, don’t trust Trubisky. Rodgers will keep Pack close, o-line hopefully healthier.
BENGALS: Oakland got that big victory to crown losing season with and could be complacent. 0-5 L5 ATS in Cincy. Cincy is still competitive, Driskel improving. Mixon will exploit Oakland bottom-ranked run D.
COLTS: Colts back at home where Luck’s passer rating is over 20 points higher than away. Dallas ranks 22nd in opposing passer rating, so he should have a big day. Dallas O not as prolific on the road.
DOLPHINS : Vikings offense is struggling, hasn’t exceeded 24 points in past five weeks, but is being asked to cover large spread here. Tannehill has been playing well, 100+ passer rating in last three games.
TITANS: G-men should not be favored, blowing out Redskins in Washington means zilch. Odell ‚questionable.‘ Titans quietly have fourth-best scoring defense and defense travels. Giants 1-4-1 ATS at home.
JAGUARS: Jags got called out for lack of effort in Tennessee. They’ll respond with determination in final home game against Skins, who will show more quit on the road. Jax D shut out Colts in last home game.
RAVENS: Bucs’ O has put up great numbers, but it’s very much untested. Faced one top-10 defense in opp. points per game, got blown out in Chicago. Bucs rank 25th in opp. YPC so Gus Edwards should thrive.
SEAHAWKS: Seahawks 4-0-1 ATS L5 including 43-16 smashing of 49ers. Seahawks are steaming towards playoffs led by Wilson: 110+ passer rating in four of last five games in which he threw 11 TD’s, one INT.
PATRIOTS: Pats 4-1 L5 ATS after a loss and in December and in Pittsburgh. Steelers have lost three in a row SU and ATS, 113 average opp. passer rating in those games. Brady and Edelman will take advantage.
EAGLES: Eagles catching too many points against bottom-ranked Rams D. Eagles D caught a tough break in loss against Dallas but has been much more stable since blowout against Saints. 5-0 ATS L5 vs Rams.
PANTHERS: Panthers will be unpopular after five straight losses but four of those came away where they’ve been notoriously weaker on O and D and other one against Seahawks. Panthers average 30+ points at home.
Kansas City owns a mediocre pass defense that ranks 15th in opposing passer rating. Its pass defense numbers look great at home, but it’s also gotten extremely lucky in that regard. The last quarterbacks who came to play at Arrowhead include Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles. Conversely, Philip RIvers is having a career year, evidenced by his 114 passer rating. In his first game against the Chiefs, he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been vulnerable lately, allowing Lamar Jackson to have a career high in passer rating and Derek Carr to achieve a 123 passer rating the week before. It will be no match for Rivers.
Conversely, the Chargers boast one of the league’s better pass defenses. It ranks eighth in opposing passer rating despite having faced the Steelers, Rams, and Chiefs once. They can also play keep-away with their deep talent at running back against KC’s bottom-ranked defense. Melvin Gordon could return or Austin Ekeler could continue, depending on who’s healthy.
The Chiefs are 0-2 ATS since losing Kareem Hunt. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS on the road.
SNF: EAGLES
The Eagles are the more desperate team because they need a win to stay alive in the wildcard hunt and the Rams have already clinched a playoff berth. More importantly, for match-up reasons, this is too many points to be giving the Eagles. The Rams’ pass defense has been fortunate lately to face Detroit and a rusty Mitch Trubisky. But it still ranks below average in opposing passer rating. Philly’s Carson Wentz has achieved a passer rating of 98 or higher in his last three games. He’ll help keep his team in it.
The Eagles missed a rush attack in its nail-biting loss at Dallas. But the Rams rank last in opposing YPC. Josh Adams has been a very positive recent discovery for the Eagles. He brings power and explosiveness and serves as a nice stylistic complement to Darren Sproles.
The Rams will score their share of points. Philadelphia’s defensive effort would be helped by the return of linebacker Jordan Hicks. Either way, Philly’s offense can keep pace.
The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Rams, 5-1 ATS in their last six games at the Rams.
CHARGERS: Chiefs 0-2 ATS without Kareem Hunt. Rivers having career year, will keep his team in it against Chiefs passing D that ranks 15th in opp. passer rating. Gordon could return, Ekeler hopefully healthy.
JETS: Three of Houston’s four road wins have been by three points or less, also two road losses. Watson’s passer rating 15 points lower away. Jets’ sixth-ranked passing D will keep Houston scoring low.
BRONCOS: Browns unreliable road team, 1-5 SU away including loss in Oakland, 1-24 SU L25 away. Watch out for status of top corner Denzel Ward. Denver is run-first team, Browns rank 22nd in opposing YPC.
FALCONS: Fading Cardinals in early game on east coast. Cards o-line has three rookies and a bum off the streets, scored 10 points or fewer in two of last three games. Atlanta doesn’t need to score much.
LIONS: Buffalo off deflating loss. Bills are run-first, rank fifth in run-play frequency, so bad match-up against Detroit’s improved run D. Lions rank 4th in sack percentage, can limit Allen’s running.
PACKERS: Packers received a boost when their coach got fired. They are 7-1 ATS L8 in Chicago. Bears are offensively challenged, don’t trust Trubisky. Rodgers will keep Pack close, o-line hopefully healthier.
BENGALS: Oakland got that big victory to crown losing season with and could be complacent. 0-5 L5 ATS in Cincy. Cincy is still competitive, Driskel improving. Mixon will exploit Oakland bottom-ranked run D.
COLTS: Colts back at home where Luck’s passer rating is over 20 points higher than away. Dallas ranks 22nd in opposing passer rating, so he should have a big day. Dallas O not as prolific on the road.
DOLPHINS : Vikings offense is struggling, hasn’t exceeded 24 points in past five weeks, but is being asked to cover large spread here. Tannehill has been playing well, 100+ passer rating in last three games.
TITANS: G-men should not be favored, blowing out Redskins in Washington means zilch. Odell ‚questionable.‘ Titans quietly have fourth-best scoring defense and defense travels. Giants 1-4-1 ATS at home.
JAGUARS: Jags got called out for lack of effort in Tennessee. They’ll respond with determination in final home game against Skins, who will show more quit on the road. Jax D shut out Colts in last home game.
RAVENS: Bucs’ O has put up great numbers, but it’s very much untested. Faced one top-10 defense in opp. points per game, got blown out in Chicago. Bucs rank 25th in opp. YPC so Gus Edwards should thrive.
SEAHAWKS: Seahawks 4-0-1 ATS L5 including 43-16 smashing of 49ers. Seahawks are steaming towards playoffs led by Wilson: 110+ passer rating in four of last five games in which he threw 11 TD’s, one INT.
PATRIOTS: Pats 4-1 L5 ATS after a loss and in December and in Pittsburgh. Steelers have lost three in a row SU and ATS, 113 average opp. passer rating in those games. Brady and Edelman will take advantage.
EAGLES: Eagles catching too many points against bottom-ranked Rams D. Eagles D caught a tough break in loss against Dallas but has been much more stable since blowout against Saints. 5-0 ATS L5 vs Rams.
PANTHERS: Panthers will be unpopular after five straight losses but four of those came away where they’ve been notoriously weaker on O and D and other one against Seahawks. Panthers average 30+ points at home.
