week 15 / early bowl stuff

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

INDY +4 / ML W
Georgia ML W


smaller

Tulane +0.5 1H W
UNLV +6 L

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Bama ML 1Q L
JMU -13 live W



leans

NTX live/2h
Georgia live/2H
Kenn St ??
JMU live/2H
Troy TT under (2H JMU gives up nothing)
BYU/TT under
Duke 1H
 
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Won't do much this week (hopefully) - need to get into bowls ......
>> only 2 match-ups so far - BUT a list of teams to FADE (SMU - Penn St +++++) - and coaches / teams to PLAY is easier to do than you might think.... will have bowl thread up THIS Saturday, or earlier. Last few years I've been caught off guard just how fast these match-ups/lines pop up.

This year I'll take a few more early risks - it's much tougher these days to guess who will play - but some teams you kinda know right? Avoid those with serious portal issues, or NFL prospects - esp off a disappointing season.


ALREADY

HAWAII BOWL

Cal vs Hawaii - This one should open close to P - but will move towards Hawaii with lightning speed, and will close 7 or more - so don't wait (SP+ is 7 or so). Cal's season 'ended' at home, with a big EMOTIONAL victory over sorry SMU ha. They are weak in bowls anyway, and will certainly use this as a VACATION. Interim Nick Rolovich / staff -will be looking for jobs (Tosh L won't coach here) - their bowl prep will be absolute shit. (KEY) QB should play, but key guys might sit out.....maybe QB hits portal?

HAWAII? - 1st bowl under Timmy C - last bowl in 2021 was cancelled. All should play, and be highly motivated to finish an 8 win season off with a nice win over a P4 team. Line might stay down, due to Cal's history as a great road dog - but that's ONLY when motivated. Check their efforts vs SDSU, and Tree. I'll hit anything under 3


XBOX FRISCO BOWL (replacing the Bahamas Bowl on TH 12/18)

Mizz St vs Ark St

Typically you fade the BOWL VIRGIN (MSU) - as this is their 1st year in FBS - last post season game was 2021 FCS play-offs.

ASU - finished 2024 with 8 wins, then a nice W over BG in the Ventures Bowl (+9'). 2023 lost to NIU (-2') in the Camellia Bowl. SO..... how excited can they be here, to play in this weird add on bowl, vs MIZZ ST? Note fine QB is a JR*, schools all time leading WR is SR - I would wait until we see if BOTH play. HC Butch J is 5-3 SU in bowls.

>> I would lean Mizzou ST - deep dive on the match-up depending..... ASU should open as a 2'/3 point favorite - line should slowly move towards the Bears - note SP+ has MSU as a small favorite

* outstanding / dominant QB playing in his FINAL GAME ..... is usually a 'play on' (or careful if betting against) spot.
eg. match-up dependant of course - but you DO NOT want to bet against Vandy in whatever bowl they play in. Effect maybe not as strong due to BURST BUBBLE EFFECT (missing play-off). PAVIA in probably - his last important game as a QB - that SOB would give his life for a victory ha (it's his IDENTITY) > his life will never be like this - ever (probably). BTW not saying ASU QB Raynor is great of course, but he has been their offensive leader for 3 years, and has carried them several times - and thrown for over 8400 yds (#3 all time). Most surely not looking at an NFL career - so his final game (this year or next) will be huge for him.
 
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INDY - no revelations here ..... just fading the Buckeyes off massive/emotional effort vs Michigan. They know they're better than everybody else, and 'will win' the national title regardless of what happens here (just like last year). How about Indiana? Do they want this one? Will they be focused? You bet - I think they win here, or stay <3 - which is where line should be anyway. Passed on the 5/5' - thinking I might get 6 ...... not sure if this goes back up, I think it goes to 3?

Bama has a way of staying in these games somehow - Georgia is the HUNGRIER / BETTER team - so watchout IMO. Just taking the ML at -133 or so (BM), and walking away. Dawgs are always great live/2H, but terrible early 1Q - Bama a strong starter, so taking them 1Q, adding to Georgia play 2Q/2H

Tulane - kinda like veteran Tulane here at home, but DO NOT like their D ranking #117 vs passing explosives (check UTSA/Ole Miss). They should be able to run here / keep NTX O off field, but for how long? Note NTX D #112 vs rush explosives, and do allow almost 6 yds/rush.
>> BOTH OL's protect well (pass/run) - neither D brings much heat - Wave gets penetration (#9 TLF) - so over a consideration (live/2H?)
Tulane starts strong at home usually - I can see NTX being a bit tight early, so I'll look to play them live if they get down early.
 
BA

Assuming BYU doesn't beat TT, will ND or Miami get the last spot in the playoffs? If ND and Miami are sitting side by side, how can the committee put ND in over a team that beat them? If Georgia beats Bama, can/should ND and Miami pass them and get in?
 
Rusty Trombone said:
BA

Assuming BYU doesn't beat TT, will ND or Miami get the last spot in the playoffs? If ND and Miami are sitting side by side, how can the committee put ND in over a team that beat them? If Georgia beats Bama, can/should ND and Miami pass them and get in?
Click to expand...

That's an easy one....

It's a seriously flawed system - based on popularity, and money - drowning in bias and and good ol boy politics.
>> so FAIRNESS is not really part of the equation.

The committee actually does a decent job, given an impossible task. Start with power rankings > consider 'good wins/losses'......'bad wins/ losses' > SOS. Ridiculous.

Why not just play it off - WINNER ADVANCES, like every other team sport on earth? They probably like all the attention this BS get's each year. Like you say - how TF can a head to head, not matter? But in this type of selection process, if you put major emphasis on head to head - you'll go down a rabbit hole that ends up in China somewhere. If they don't fix it, top teams (like Sark said) will just schedule weaker teams in the non-conference.


Here's a PR composite .....using SP+, Vegas, Sagarin, and a few more
* considering su/ats/sos as well...

1. OSU
2. Indy
3. ND
4. Ducks
5. TT
6. Ga
7. Ala
8. A&M
9. Miami
10. Ole Miss
11. OU 10-2 su / 6-5 ats / SOS #10
12. Vandy 10-2 su / 9-2 ats / SOS #21

THEN a decent drop off (IMO) :

13. Utes 10-2 / #58 SOS / several weak efforts
14. Texas 9-3 / #13 SOS / about 4 weak to terrible efforts
15. USC 9-3 / #33 SOS / fine year, not play-off worthy
16. BYU 11-1 / #44 SOS / beat TT and you're in - great year, but not a top 10 type team
* Iowa - Tenn - Mizzou - Washington


$$ If you start talking about who 'deserves' what - only these teams dominated most every week, and (arguably) DESERVE a spot:

(3) Indiana - TTech - Ohio State ....then maybe Oregon, maybe Georgia. That's really about it. Irish, Texas, Miami, BAMA? have arguments, but too many moments of "wtf is going on here?" Take your nice bowl / stfu - try again next year. Don't get pushed around by UTEP whydontcha...




SOLUTION:

Have 2 divisions :
* FBS l - P4
* FBS ll - G4-5
>> each has 4 conferences, with 2 divisions each = auto 8 team play-off

So this year we might have:
FBS l champ > Ohio State
FBS ll champ > JMU

Winner advances - loser goes home, and to a great bowl. Maybe reseed each division every 5 years or so?
 
I’m sitting here watching the playoff prediction show and it looks like the group is gathered in Grapevine, Tx 😳 send over some female spies… actually, guessing you’re on the committee. Sshhhh. Delete this message asap. ;)

I’m still cackling at this one… BA said “Take your nice bowl / stfu - try again next year. Don't get pushed around by UTEP whydontcha..”

Love the Hoosiers angle… just simply means more to them currently. I have a little Kenny St and…. This might be Kirby’s Super Bowl. The man needs to get the Tide curse off his hands something fierce. Same time you get the Bama mojo coming with their backs against the wall…win or else… Joined you on the UGA ML. Ideally will hit UGA down at halftime for a banger 2ndH.

Happy holidays big man… UTEP over Miami ML 🤣 yessuh 🤙🏽
 
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bookieassassin said:
Won't do much this week (hopefully) - need to get into bowls ......
>> only 2 match-ups so far - BUT a list of teams to FADE (SMU - Penn St +++++) - and coaches / teams to PLAY is easier to do than you might think.... will have bowl thread up THIS Saturday, or earlier. Last few years I've been caught off guard just how fast these match-ups/lines pop up.

This year I'll take a few more early risks - it's much tougher these days to guess who will play - but some teams you kinda know right? Avoid those with serious portal issues, or NFL prospects - esp off a disappointing season.


ALREADY

HAWAII BOWL

Cal vs Hawaii - This one should open close to P - but will move towards Hawaii with lightning speed, and will close 7 or more - so don't wait (SP+ is 7 or so). Cal's season 'ended' at home, with a big EMOTIONAL victory over sorry SMU ha. They are weak in bowls anyway, and will certainly use this as a VACATION. Interim Nick Rolovich / staff -will be looking for jobs (Tosh L won't coach here) - their bowl prep will be absolute shit. (KEY) QB should play, but key guys might sit out.....maybe QB hits portal?

HAWAII? - 1st bowl under Timmy C - last bowl in 2021 was cancelled. All should play, and be highly motivated to finish an 8 win season off with a nice win over a P4 team. Line might stay down, due to Cal's history as a great road dog - but that's ONLY when motivated. Check their efforts vs SDSU, and Tree. I'll hit anything under 3


XBOX FRISCO BOWL (replacing the Bahamas Bowl on TH 12/18)

Mizz St vs Ark St

Typically you fade the BOWL VIRGIN (MSU) - as this is their 1st year in FBS - last post season game was 2021 FCS play-offs.

ASU - finished 2024 with 8 wins, then a nice W over BG in the Ventures Bowl (+9'). 2023 lost to NIU (-2') in the Camellia Bowl. SO..... how excited can they be here, to play in this weird add on bowl, vs MIZZ ST? Note fine QB is a JR*, schools all time leading WR is SR - I would wait until we see if BOTH play. HC Butch J is 5-3 SU in bowls.

>> I would lean Mizzou ST - deep dive on the match-up depending..... ASU should open as a 2'/3 point favorite - line should slowly move towards the Bears - note SP+ has MSU as a small favorite

* outstanding / dominant QB playing in his FINAL GAME ..... is usually a 'play on' (or careful if betting against) spot.
eg. match-up dependant of course - but you DO NOT want to bet against Vandy in whatever bowl they play in. Effect maybe not as strong due to BURST BUBBLE EFFECT (missing play-off). PAVIA in probably - his last important game as a QB - that SOB would give his life for a victory ha (it's his IDENTITY) > his life will never be like this - ever (probably). BTW not saying ASU QB Raynor is great of course, but he has been their offensive leader for 3 years, and has carried them several times - and thrown for over 8400 yds (#3 all time). Most surely not looking at an NFL career - so his final game (this year or next) will be huge for him.
Click to expand...
Regarding QB playing last game, totally agree on Pavia. I faded him last week and paid dearly for it.

Another potential candidate for this is Altmyer. He's had a really good career, probably the type to play in the last game. Not sure on his NFL prospects but he's a much better QB than DeVito was (nothing against Tommy, he was good too) and DeVito has carved out a career.
 
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Do you think Rolovich gets up for the gm stove he was an assistant and head coach at Hawaii? Or won't matter bc players motivation?
 
Foxtrot said:
Do you think Rolovich gets up for the gm stove he was an assistant and head coach at Hawaii? Or won't matter bc players motivation?
Click to expand...

Cal's season ENDED at home vs SMU. Players and coaches are thinking about their future spot.

What this means is that practices are a joke - they will literally show up and play. Hawaii should be focused - barring something weird happening - like 5 turnovers - Cal should get their ass kicked.....

NIL money makes this less of a certainty, as players need to get a good showing on tape....but tough to just flip on a switch - bust your ass in a meaningless game. Looks like a great vacation/ reward for Cal players and coaches.
 
CURE BOWL Wed 12/17

ODU vs USF

ODU - QB Joseph will (supposedly) NOT play - in portal. BUT backup Quinn Henicle -can play, and is a great runner. Only ONE bowl win in school history - no wins under 6Y HC Rahne - lost in 2023 by 3 vs WKU (-6') - and in 2021 to Tulsa by 13 (+8'). Note a great road dog, that can RUN - solid D, but terrible ST

USF - WILL QB BYRUM BROWN PLAY? He has another year left (RS Jr) - note articles list him as graduate SR. He has 'suggested' he will play. Since this is an early game - maybe he just plays here - as he missed LY's Hawaii Bowl - then figures out his future later....

PROBLEM? - (with a play on USF) - the dreaded BURST BUBBLE EFFECT. Looking at a possible play-off bid, and would be favored over Tulane, NTX, and Duke - and on a given day could beat most anybody......POOF! they're in the stinking Cure Bowl at 5:00p on a Wed vs ODU, a short drive away. HC is gone, and will be replaced by DL coach Kevin Patrick.

$ Early bowl - who wants it more? is always the first question you ask. Is this where they wanted to be, when the season began? ODU surely expected more (2nd best team in the SB) - but should be hungry for a bowl win vs a quality opponent here.
>> raw numbers suggest a line of USF -8'/9 or so - more if Brown plays / Joseph does not. I would lean ODU for sure, but will stay away until we get a good read on USF QB - IF he announces this one as his FINAL GAME at USF - ODU could get killed (see JMU game)
 
DON'T FORGET......

The possibility of late opt outs - and the worst of all - the late OPT BACK IN, or the guys that are in the portal - that decide to play. WKU is a team that allows this, and has burnt me several times.

eg. ODU QB has said he won't play - so you lay 10+ with the news that USF QB is all in! You tune in knowing that ODU is about to get killed - then BAM! - you see Colton Joseph warming up .....which means the 10+ you bet, should have been no more than 5/6. OUCH
 
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