Week 15 ~ 2021

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [1-2 -4.26u]
2021 - [131-130 +13.16u]

THURSDAY:

• 4/4.24 CHARGERS +3 +106
• 4/3.85 CHIEFS / CHARGERS OVER 54 -104
• 3.5/3.5 CHARGERS +2½ +100 1st Half
• 3.45/3 CHIEFS / CHARGERS OVER 26½ -115 1st Half
• 5/4.00 KELCE OVER OVER 70 YDS REC -125

randoms...

• LA +3 ...Chiefs lost 30-24 @home to the Chargers in September in a game in which KC dominated the stats, outgaining Los Angeles 437-252. Speaking of dominating, the Bolts’ defense has come alive, allowing just 16 1H points in the L3 as they are now inching close to the coveted No. 1 playoff seed in AFC. Last week’s 48-point outburst vs Vegas saw the Chiefs tally 372 total yards offense as the win was largely +5 turnover-aided. Meanwhile, Herbert joined Dan Marino as the only QBs in NFL history with 60 passing TDs through the first two seasons. Should LA pull the upset on KC for the 2nd time this season, it would be no surprise to find Herbert’s name in the MVP talk. Don’t scoff at the idea, as QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SU & ATS career record on Thursdays vs division foes. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays all-time in game 11 or higher.
• Travis Kelce Over 70 rec yards ...After 2 down weeks, it’s time for Kelce to remind the league why he’s the best TE in football. The Chargers, while a reverse funnel defense, are extremely susceptible to the TE position. LA gives up a 69%(nice) catch radius to the position, over 8 yards per catch, and have allowed 10 touchdowns to the position, 2nd only to the Eagles with 11. Travis Kelce averages over 8 targets a game and 12 yards per catch this season. Back in week 3, Kelce torched the Bolts for 7 grabs on 11 targets and 104 receiving yards. I could easily see a return to form in this key divisional matchup with the highest posted total of the week.
• KANSAS CITY is 6-1 ATS in L7 on road vs. Chargers but lost LY
• KANSAS CITY is 34-15-1 ATS L50 AWAY - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG
• LA CHARGERS are 1-14 ATS L15 @HOME - [vs OPP] After a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
• LA CHARGERS are 44-20-1 UNDER L65 @HOME VS AFC-WEST
• Yeah I know there's lots of trends pointing KC and under, but I'm ready to see changes and fully expect different tonight

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[B.A.R.]

You nearly and should have swept this.

 

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [3-2 +3.9u]
2021 - [134-132 +17.06u]

SATURDAY:

• 4.20/4 Patriots +2 -105
• 4.20/4 Patriots / Colts OVER 46 -105

 

[mrpickem]

Well fuck, that one was in the tank quickly last night. Better things to come today. Actually I went after a middle today since the juice was low and you rarely see them in NFL anymore.

NFL

LAST - [0-2 -8.4u]
2021 - [134-134 +8.66u]

SUNDAY:

• 4.20/4 Dolphins -9½ -105
• 4.12/4 JETS / DOLPHINS u41 -103
• 4.20/4 Giants +11½ -105
• 4.00/4 Packers -7 +100
• 4.20/4 Packers / Ravens OVER 43½ -105
• 3/2.94 Rodgers PASS YARDS OVER 275.5
• 4.20/4 Titans / Steelers OVER 42½ -105
• 4.36/4 TEXANS / JAGUARS u40-109
• 4.20/4 Bengals +3 -105
• 3/4.20 Bengals +140
• 4.20/4 Buccaneers -11 -105
• 4/4.00 Saints Team Total UNDER 16½ +100

Like ATL but playing for middle

• 20.0/19.42 49ERS (SF) -8½ -103
• 26.3/25.05 Falcons +9½ -105

Pend;
CHI
WAS

randoms...

• Bengals +140 ...Not many good dog options this week, but I do really like Cincy. They avg 27.2 PPG while Broncos avg 21 PPG. with both teams allowing avg ~21 PPG. I could see this one close and a nail biter to the end, but I still see Cincy winning SU. Bengals do sport a +12.3 avg point diff in away games while DEN +4.7 at home. CIN is eyeing #1 in AFC North and a win here with BAL/CLE losses will seal at least a tie. Cincy will be missing starting R/Tackle and CB due to COVID and that wont help but still I see them getting past an overrated Bronco team.
• Bucs -11 ...Home FAVs of 9 or more points are 10-4 ATS this year. The Bucs are 3-0 in those games. Sean Peyton testing positive for COVID has interrupted practice this week, also coupled with poor offense production seems like a no brainer this season seems pretty obvious. TB is rounding into playoff form with a good D vs a less than efficient offense should give Brady good field position all day. Would take the under but Brady and Co may put up near 45 alone, but I will hit NO TT under as well. TAMPA 11-3 ATS at home last 2 seasons.
• GB trending
  • GB 126-89 ATS (58.6%) as fav of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
  • GB 11-2 ATS this season.
  • GB 6-0 ATS at home this season.
  • GB 9-1 ATS on grass this season.
  • GB 75-48 ATS (61%) in December since 1992.
  • GB 110-81 ATS (57.6%) vs teams with winning record since 1992.
  • GB 80-52 ATS (60.6%) vs teams with a winning record 2nd half of season since 1992.
  • GB 69-45 ATS (60.5%) last 4 weeks of regular season since 1992.

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[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [5-9 -22.96u]
2021 - [139-143 -14.3u]

MONDAY:

• 3/2.75 Browns +3 -109
• 2/2.70 Browns +135
• 3/2.86 Raiders / Browns UNDER 41½ -105
• 3/2.78 Bears +7 -108

Tough outing on Sunday...looking to bounce back​

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Raiders injuries are more significant then missing Browns players today and Raiders Hobbs was just added to the covid list. Expect more to probably come. That means Raiders are out of 2/3 starting corners and 2 starting LBs on D. Browns key players missing are Clowney, Hunt, and Mayfield. Well they have Chubb so they are good, still have Myles Garett, and shit they've been winning games with half a QB all year. Nick Mulllens? Last time he played the Raiders he was with SF and they won 31-3 and he went off for 3 TDs. Not only do Browns need this win for the playoffs, but they are still trying to win their division. They can win today running the ball alone against one of the worst run D's in the league, missing one of the few studs in Perryman. Meanwhile if you've watched LV the last 6 weeks you'd see they are one of the 3 worse teams in the league​

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[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [0-2-1 +7.1u]
POSTSEASON [14-14 +3.46u]
2021 - [143-134 +4.3u]

Tuesday:

• 4.04/4 WYOMING -3½-101
• 4/3.81 Wyoming / Kent State OVER 59 -105
• 3/2.61 TOTAL o31-115 POINTS BY WYOMING
• 3/1.40 Wyoming Team Total OVER 6½ -215 1st Quarter

randoms...

If anyone has watched Kent St this year they play very fast. Their D is also bad and they will give up chunks against the run. 7 of L8 Kent games went over 60 points and some have been absolute shootouts with 5 of those games going well over 80. I think the main concern for the over here is that Wyoming runs the ball and control the clock. However, that's what Northern Illinois did a couple weeks ago vs Kent State and that game still had 64 points despite some botched touchdowns by Kent in 1H. WYO will run the ball but they might just take a few of these runs to the house against this Golden Flashes defense. The weather will be cold but there's basically no wind and no rain which is a plus for WYO and lots of points. WYO team total over here as well for a touch.​

• WYOMING is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points last 3 seasons

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[mrpickem]

Tuesday games, wow it's been awhile...at least since last year

NFL

LAST - [2-2 +0.61u]
2021 - [141-145 -13.69u]

TUESDAY:

• 4.20/4 RAMS -7 +100
• 4/3.70 SEAHAWKS / RAMS UNDER 47 -108
• 4.20/4 EAGLES -9 -105
• 7/6.14 PARLAY: 1H RAMS -246 ,1H EAGLES -299

PHI...top 2 WAS QB's still in DC and mostly the whole D-line is out and this will be a problem vs Philly #1 run game. Really don see this one close at all. Just way too many things against the Football Team. Several WAS coaches out too from COVID related protocol.

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