WEEK 14

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
will add a few later in the week - working on bowls

one unit

Miami +8 / ML
Bama +6' / ML
Fla St ML


smaller

Texas / Okie St over 55
Liberty -6 1H
Bama / Georgia 1H under 28'
SMU +3/ML
UNLV +11' live




leans

Iowa 1H
Okie St 1H/game
FSU / UL under
SMU / Tulane 1H under
 
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Great looks on that Horns over… a 20-17 win does the Horns nothing. I went ahead with UNLV, will absolutely be on FSU and if Bama hits +7, Bingo. Would love to see some NCAAF playoff chaos…those tight ass committee bastards could be the lamest form of life. They lurk around the NCAAB tournament selection as well…pockets bulging. I don’t like ‘em.
What should be the current playoff format and would make for one helluva 8 team Tournament.

Georgia
Michigan
Florida St
Washington
Ohio St
Oregon
Alabama
Texas

Could Give UGA & Michigan a bye and add Penn st & LSU.
 
added one unit play at BM -115

Bama +6'


Too many points IMO - I like to play the team (likely) to play with the most urgency in these games - the one with more 'will to win' / refusal to lose.
>> I don't necessarily agree - but Georgia PLAYERS in the back of their minds ... probably think they're in the playoff regardless. A very minor thing but can't discount it.

forgot - gonna actually put a smaller amount at 6' / wait for a chance at a cheaper 7, as line is moving to a solid 6 in Vegas - will add more at 7, or 6' if doesn't happen.
 
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Wolfeman said:
Great looks on that Horns over… a 20-17 win does the Horns nothing. I went ahead with UNLV, will absolutely be on FSU and if Bama hits +7, Bingo. Would love to see some NCAAF playoff chaos…those tight ass committee bastards could be the lamest form of life. They lurk around the NCAAB tournament selection as well…pockets bulging. I don’t like ‘em.
What should be the current playoff format and would make for one helluva 8 team Tournament.

Georgia
Michigan
Florida St
Washington
Ohio St
Oregon
Alabama
Texas

Could Give UGA & Michigan a bye and add Penn st & LSU.
Click to expand...

Yep Texas is gonna get screwed ha .....
 
smaller juiced a bit

Liberty -6 1H

NMSU has put a TON of energy into their last 2 games - especially early / typically they're a stronger 2H team. Flames are a very fast starter - especially at home. I'll look for a play on NMSU 2H if set up.
>> if this works the other way (NMSU up early) - then Liberty could be a great live/2H play
 
from Marc Lawrence
*vs common opponents
* ITS = inside the stats

AAC --- SU --- ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Smu----5-0---- 4-1 -- 4-1--- +824
TULANE 5-0 -- 3-2--- 4-1--- +319

ACC ---SU ----ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Fla St-- 5-0--- 1-4--- 3-2 ---+290
Louis --4-1--- 4-1--- 4-1--- +651

BIG TEN -- SU--- ATS-- ITS---- Net Yds
Iowa -----4-2--- 3-2-1-- 1-5--- -353
Mich----- 6-0--- 4-1-1-- 6-0--- +787

BIG 12 ------ SU--- ATS---- ITS---- Net Yds
Oklahoma St 5-1--- 4-2--- 4-2--- +398
Texas -------5-1 --3-2-1-- 5-1--- +646

CUSA ------ SU ---ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
LIBERTY ----7-0 ---4-3--- 7-0--- +950
N Mex St--- 6-1--- 6-1--- 4-3---- -23

MAC ----SU--- ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Miami - 5-1---- 4-2--- 4-2--- +300
Toledo- 6-0---- 2-4---- 6-0--- +441

MWC -----SU--- ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Boise St --4-2-- 3-2-1-- 5-1--- +714
UNLV -----4-2-- 4-2 ----5-1--- +177

PAC-12 ------SU ---ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Oregon -----7-1--- 5-2-1- 8-1--- +1696
Wash ------- 8-0-- 3-4-1-- 3-5---- -153

SEC --------SU--- ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
Alabama ---4-0-- 3-1--- 3-1--- +335
Georgia ----4-0--- 3-1-- 2-0--- +1055

SUN BELT ---SU ---ATS--- ITS--- Net Yds
App State --4-0---- 2-2--- 3-1--- +369
TROY -------4-0---- 3-1--- 4-0--- +363


Interesting way of looking at a matchup .....
>> So Oregon outgained their opponents, by an average of more than 231 yards/game than Washington did (same teams)
* Georgia 180 yds/game more than Bama
* Liberty 139 yds/g more than NMSU
* Michigan ONLY 190 yards more than Iowa
 
I think pokes are gonna be hell for UT..
UW has gotta be wearing thin carrying undefeated, Pennix and the defense will keep carrying the crew. But these Ducks are clearly playing better ball in fact some of the best in the country with those trenches. GL Partner, it’s that finding the pulse of these Teams this time of year, that you’ve mastered. it’s fascinating and takes a helluva lot work!!
GL this Bowl Season…. I think those Ducks just might cover the chalk.
 
Wolfeman said:
I think pokes are gonna be hell for UT..
UW has gotta be wearing thin carrying undefeated, Pennix and the defense will keep carrying the crew. But these Ducks are clearly playing better ball in fact some of the best in the country with those trenches. GL Partner, it’s that finding the pulse of these Teams this time of year, that you’ve mastered. it’s fascinating and takes a helluva lot work!!
GL this Bowl Season…. I think those Ducks just might cover the chalk.
Click to expand...

Would love to see Okie St kick their azz - as a smaller dog Gundy has won 3/4 and covered all 4.

I might take OSU 1H - but all they can do is run - Texas run D is pretty tough - OSU is unlikely to pressure Ewers. I can see a close game for 3Q - then a Texas late run / nasty front door cover. Tbh - I would play OSU here probably, but my luck when I bet on/ against Texas is not good ha.
 
bookieassassin said:
smaller juiced a bit

Liberty -6 1H

NMSU has put a TON of energy into their last 2 games - especially early / typically they're a stronger 2H team. Flames are a very fast starter - especially at home. I'll look for a play on NMSU 2H if set up.
>> if this works the other way (NMSU up early) - then Liberty could be a great live/2H play
Click to expand...
You nailed it BA…Liberty got away from em 2H thank you, made last night fun as my Oregon wager tanked. GL today brotha!
>> if this works the other way (NMSU up early) - then Liberty could be a great live/2H play”
Click to expand...
 
Will add SMU later - expecting late Tulane money ..?
>> smaller at 3 ish - more at 5/6 - /.25 ML

** I'll have a unit or so on SMU - but not gonna list it as a top play - 3 is a bad deal IMO. Ponies on paper are the better team, but they're facing a great home team with the better coaches and QB- they stink as a dog and are at a sizeable ST disadvantage (lead nation in blocked kicks). A HUNCH play for me.
 
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Congratulations BA.. well fucking done.
Thats some hard work due diligence paying off. Mahalos

one unit

Miami +8 / ML
Bama +6' / ML
Fla St ML


smaller

Texas / Okie St over 55
Liberty -6 1H
Bama / Georgia 1H under 28'
SMU +3/ML
UNLV +11' live
 
Wolfeman said:
Congratulations BA.. well fucking done.
Thats some hard work due diligence paying off. Mahalos

one unit

Miami +8 / ML
Bama +6' / ML
Fla St ML


smaller

Texas / Okie St over 55
Liberty -6 1H
Bama / Georgia 1H under 28'
SMU +3/ML
UNLV +11' live
Click to expand...
So damn good Assassin, deserved to be posted again…
Miami and Bama at ML is legendary stuff Braddah!!
The horns over felt like it was banked 1st quarter. SMU….yes sir!

I’m observing some Bowl Teams going through portal transition… should impact some Team-vibe in the locker rooms during these Bowl games. Different times today.

thanks again for providing your sharp professional support expertise earned through decades of NCAAF handicapping. I’ve learned a masters degree 101 from what you provide openly to a forum of regular joes that absolutely need the advice.
Robinhood was a rebel against the wealthy with the advantage…an assassin of books so to speak.

Thanks always humble buddy for showing the poor everyday-commoner like me and others how to beat the rich royalty bookie bastards and their 10% vig.
Happy holidays, and fantastic yet again :) going into the bowl games Brutha
 
I can't rival the above statement---- but damn'it BA, that's what separates you from the rest of us. As consistent as time itself--for at least 15+ years now--and that's only part of it that I've been around. Same thing as above--(I wouldn't have considered a couple of those my own--but I wouldn't dare go against ya either :)--much appreciated and looking forward to the Bowl Season. Always peaking at the right time. I'll stop blowing smoke my man--but damn good stuff.
 
2dawgnation2 said:
I can't rival the above statement---- but damn'it BA, that's what separates you from the rest of us. As consistent as time itself--for at least 15+ years now--and that's only part of it that I've been around. Same thing as above--(I wouldn't have considered a couple of those my own--but I wouldn't dare go against ya either :)--much appreciated and looking forward to the Bowl Season. Always peaking at the right time. I'll stop blowing smoke my man--but damn good stuff.
Click to expand...
DITTO... B.A. is the very BEST!!!
 
bookieassassin said:
thanks boys.....

will start a bowl thread later ...


played

Boise +2
Auburn -1'
NW +7'
Hokies -4'

smaller

Iowa +7'
Wisky +10'
WVirg -3
Rutgers +3'
Ga St -2'
Click to expand...
Gotta like Mizzou and Georgia don't dontcha? Ohio St and FSU likely to be down lots of key players....
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Gotta like Mizzou and Georgia don't dontcha? Ohio St and FSU likely to be down lots of key players....
Click to expand...

wut

haha

SO - In fall camp - Kirby is screaming at the players - in the 100 degree heat..... "gimme all you got fuckers - we are gonna crush it in the ORANGE BOWL!"

Mizzou maybe - I can't see me betting Eli D vs Ohio State / unless a small ML play ... if you got that early 6'/7 sure

Usually you damn sure fade a BURST BUBBLE team like Fla St - but this feels different to me. I would definitely lean FSU here.
 
bookieassassin said:
Usually you damn sure fade a BURST BUBBLE team like Fla St - but this feels different to me. I would definitely lean FSU here.
Click to expand...
Both teams are in ridiculously poor situations and will likely have a lot of players sitting out. The concept that FSU wants to prove the committee wrong is laughable imo. Not sure how to predict who cares more about the OB.

GL on the early ones. I can't bet this stuff til closer to game time with suspensions/portal/sitting out.
 
KJ said:
Both teams are in ridiculously poor situations and will likely have a lot of players sitting out. The concept that FSU wants to prove the committee wrong is laughable imo. Not sure how to predict who cares more about the OB.

GL on the early ones. I can't bet this stuff til closer to game time with suspensions/portal/sitting out.
Click to expand...

Actually we do know who will be more focused here ......
>> trying to figure out 'who cares the most' - ain't how you do it.

1) Georgia fall camp - Orange Bowl vs FSU ? >> a horrible / crushing end to the season.
2) FSU fall camp- OB vs GEORGIA? - fantastic - for a team still building a program .... this is only their 2nd bowl under Norvell. Strong motivational edge to FSU. They take a week off, the sting should wear off after a few days - IMO they'll be ready to play. I doubt they win, depending on how many sit out, but should compete.
 
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