Week 14

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
2 losing weeks in a row. Yikes. Still at 65.9% for year. Will update numbers

54-27-4 65.9%. +24.82u


Tennessee/Jax over 37
Kansas City -6.5
Indianapolis +5 (-108) 2u
Green Bay -5
San Francisco +4
Oakland +10.5
Chicago +3

Don’t love playing this many. But like the card.
 
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Capaholic said:
I use a lot of analytics normally. This is a pure fade of what seems to be an obvious under. I can see both teams getting close to 20 this evening.
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I've heard a few good long-time cappers say that in today's NFL anything below 37 is almost an auto bet on the over. With officials handing out 15 yard defensive penalties like candy on Haloween I can see the logic.

Already on Chicago, SF and Indy with ya. Lets get back to winning ways.
 
C-MAN said:
Thoughts on Indy?
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Despite being decimated by injury of late, I am of the (perhaps unpopular) opinion that Indy is equal to or better than Houston. Neither has a particularly strong resume but from a pure numbers standpoint I don’t feel as though the Texans are 2, 2.5 better on a neutral field as the line would indicate (Houston does not traditionally get the full 3 points for homefield). I feel as though this will go to the wire and if Indy doesn’t win outright it will be a FG game.
 
The moment Indy got shutout I started to dig into this game. Colts defense is underrated because is not flashy with no big name players but they are stout. Luck should have forms of success against the Texans defense and (I got 4) 4 points is a nice get in this matchup. I have this game as more of a coin flip than 4 points so I have 2units on the +4 and dropped a unit on a teaser to get +10.

Let's get this one cap!
 
rambler882 said:
The moment Indy got shutout I started to dig into this game. Colts defense is underrated because is not flashy with no big name players but they are stout. Luck should have forms of success against the Texans defense and (I got 4) 4 points is a nice get in this matchup. I have this game as more of a coin flip than 4 points so I have 2units on the +4 and dropped a unit on a teaser to get +10.

Let's get this one cap!
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Them losing in the manner in which they did last week was a huge help to this line. I like it a lot at 4 as well
 
Thanks for all your plays this season, Cap.

Green Bay reasoning if you can

and

Kansas city reasoning if you can.

Thanks in advance and good luck this week.
 
Good luck buddy! The Oakland pick is curious as I feel they’ve packed their bags weeks ago. SF us interesting too. Here’s to a perfect card!
 
KingKrunked said:
Good luck buddy! The Oakland pick is curious as I feel they’ve packed their bags weeks ago. SF us interesting too. Here’s to a perfect card!
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To me, that’s not the Oakland I’ve seen the last couple of weeks and they certainly gave my boys a test last week. But it’s also a fade of Pitt laying a big number on the road. There are a few constants over time (ex: West coast teams coming east, Jax going west, Chiefs in the playoffs lol etc) and Pitt laying a big number on the road is another. Plus, lookahead spot for them with a big game next week against New England.

RetroVK said:
Thanks for all your plays this season, Cap.

Green Bay reasoning if you can

and

Kansas city reasoning if you can.

Thanks in advance and good luck this week.
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Don’t like the line moves against GB and not quite sure how the locker room feels towards Rodgers right now but given the week they had, coupled with the meetings with McCarthy after he was fired, I feel we have a team that’s fired up to go out and play at home this week. Atlanta meanwhile has the privilege of going and freezing their asses off when they want nothing more than this season to be over

I’m big on the metrics and analytics etc. And they all say the Ravens are solid. I don’t know if I’ve been on them more than once all season. And yes, KC has the leagues worst run defense. But I don’t see the Ravens D shutting down KC like some do. They’ve consistently given up 20+ to the top 10 offenses they have faced and even without Hunt I feel that KC will so much like the Panthers did and get into the 30’s. From there, making Lamar throw a lot is a great recipe for success. Is it my favorite play? No. But I definitely like it.
 
Cap has hit on something with the Oakland pick that I think for sure has gone under the radar.

Steez are perhaps the biggest change in philosophy/game planning when they leave Their home field as compared to anyone else in the league.

When they play on the road (at least under Tomlin), the mindset always seems to be get into the game, get the hell out with any win possible and get back home. Theyre for sure more conservative and their point totals are lower.

Just my opinion, but I can’t lay DD away from
Home with a team looking to get the hell out of there with a 3 point win if they can. They’ve proven this for years.

Oakland or nothing for me...GL today, Cap
 
I'm on the other side relatively heavily backing the Steelers. For discussion sake I'll just lob out what I liked and I'll keep it simple. Oakland defense is abysmal. Even without Conner the Steelers should be putting up 27+. Additionally, the Raiders only means of offense is the passing game and the Steelers are equipped enough there to keep the Raiders under 17.

Motivation which anyone can dice this up the way they want so I tend to not put much stock into it but....the Steelers are off of two losses. I just cannot see a world in which a team in this spot does not show up full force to ensure they get this win. I do agree historically they've played down to their competition but I've also seen them go on the road and demolish people. On the other side, if you want to make a claim for "why the Raiders are not showing up today" is why do they care? Yes they put everything against a divisional rival in the Chiefs but I don't know why they'd bring more intensity than the Steelers in this spot.

The much better team, off two losses, against a bottom 3 team in the NFL, who is off a loss against a divisional rival where they were 100% geared up for it..... I'll lay the 9.5.
 
Well this has gone pretty much all according to script so far. Fucking amazing job once again, Cap.

I also parlayed the GB/Indy/Balt dogs for a 5:1 value. Thing getting very interesting here late in the 4th.
 
Good win for Mahomes considering Ravens made him look awfully confused most of that game and he damn near cost the Chiefs the game in OT with that sack/fumble whatever it was. I'd be much more impressed with the defense stepping up when needed at the end.
 
KJ said:
Good win for Mahomes considering Ravens made him look awfully confused most of that game and he damn near cost the Chiefs the game in OT with that sack/fumble whatever it was. I'd be much more impressed with the defense stepping up when needed at the end.
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100%. It’s just that 4th and 9 that is burnt in my brain. Chris Jones and the guys on the DL were hugeee
 
Capaholic said:
To me, that’s not the Oakland I’ve seen the last couple of weeks and they certainly gave my boys a test last week. But it’s also a fade of Pitt laying a big number on the road. There are a few constants over time (ex: West coast teams coming east, Jax going west, Chiefs in the playoffs lol etc) and Pitt laying a big number on the road is another. Plus, lookahead spot for them with a big game next week against New England.




Don’t like the line moves against GB and not quite sure how the locker room feels towards Rodgers right now but given the week they had, coupled with the meetings with McCarthy after he was fired, I feel we have a team that’s fired up to go out and play at home this week. Atlanta meanwhile has the privilege of going and freezing their asses off when they want nothing more than this season to be over

I’m big on the metrics and analytics etc. And they all say the Ravens are solid. I don’t know if I’ve been on them more than once all season. And yes, KC has the leagues worst run defense. But I don’t see the Ravens D shutting down KC like some do. They’ve consistently given up 20+ to the top 10 offenses they have faced and even without Hunt I feel that KC will so much like the Panthers did and get into the 30’s. From there, making Lamar throw a lot is a great recipe for success. Is it my favorite play? No. But I definitely like it.
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Good call on oakland.
 
I can't tolerate listening to those guys. If not for my Sirius & I was stuck listening to Boston sports radio I'd drive into oncoming traffic. Yes I'm a Boston sports fan but radio homers are tough. Zo does call them as he sees them though.
 
Zeke said:
I can't tolerate listening to those guys. If not for my Sirius & I was stuck listening to Boston sports radio I'd drive into oncoming traffic. Yes I'm a Boston sports fan but radio homers are tough. Zo does call them as he sees them though.
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Born and raised here. I’m soon to be 39 so I’m old enough to remember when Boston sports were somewhat of a joke and also have had to suffer for the last 17 years as you guys just keep winning everything. I’ve always been an oddball. Loved the Chiefs starting around Okoye and Steve DeBerg. Father made me a Yankees fan so no wiggle room there. Used to love the Knicks but Melo ruined it. And I don’t watch much hockey. The only local team i support is Providence College as I have a close personal connection to the school and the basketball team. What gets be the most is how people have taken for granted these years of success. How quickly they forget (many were most likely 49ers or Cowboys fans) the teams of the 80’s and 90’s where my dad and I would sit on those aluminum benches and cheer on the hapless Pats just because the always gave it their best despite being a bag of shit. Don’t get me started on the Red Sox. You gained many many new fans since 2004. Rivals the bandwagoning of the Pats. I could go on for a while but I digress. Sports radio enables all
Of that nonsense. So when Tommy from dorchester calls up and asks is Mookie Betts the greatest outfielder ever and the hosts entertain it it’s just brutal. Today, I checked in as my glee from yesterday was still present. And I gotta say. This was as fair and objective as they’ve been in a long time. It’s a flawed team and they made no bones about it. That’s all a hater can ask for!!!!

Always a pleasure zeke and BJ sorry for the long windedness
 
ChrissyMoltisanti said:
Any leans tonight?

As a monster BC fan I grew up on that BC PC rivalry. Some of those games at Conte in the mid 90s were unreal. Great rivalry
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Sorry I didn’t get to see this message in time. Didn’t really like this game. Wanted reasons to like Minnesota and I couldn’t come up with any and they’ve burnt me plenty.

I was a Senior in 2001 PC and BC played for the Big East regular season title on our Senior Day. It was an insane game. You guys got us. Love that we still play. Eff UConn.
 
Capaholic said:
Sorry I didn’t get to see this message in time. Didn’t really like this game. Wanted reasons to like Minnesota and I couldn’t come up with any and they’ve burnt me plenty.

I was a Senior in 2001 PC and BC played for the Big East regular season title on our Senior Day. It was an insane game. You guys got us. Love that we still play. Eff UConn.
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John Linehan was a BC killer, him and Troy Bell had some battles!
 
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