Week 14 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Last week was nuts. These write ups went 7-7(86-77 for the year), nothing nuts about that, but some of these games....

I've never really understood the logic that some of these coaches use when it comes to calling timeout to ice the kicker. Wait, let me stop there. I've never understood the logic of football coaches in damn well every situation that they find themselves in. Their collective incompetence is legendary, and I don't think there's a person on this board that would argue with me in that regard. But Greg Schiano last week, my goodness. Don't get me wrong, I was glad my Fighting Illini were granted an effective do over of a foolish decision to try a 58yard field goal in a windstorm, but we must review this. Rutgers is up a point with 14 seconds left. Illinois is hit with a 5 yard false start to move them back to the 40 yard line on 4th and 13 with 12 seconds left in the game. Bielema opts to try the FG because he has 2 kickers with huge legs, and one who has already made one this year from 59. So he lines up to try it. Greg Schiano, rather than being content with Illinois trying an unmakeable field goal, decides he needs to ice the kid, but even worse, decides to do it as the ball is being snapped so the Illini effectively have a practice run. The result is comical. The wind is so strong that it pushes the ball about 20 yards left. Bielema realizes his better option)which he should have realized initially) is to go for it and take his chances on converting the 4th down and getting to a decent spot to try the FG. Little does he know that Rutgers won't think to cover a guy with 8 catches and 150 yards receiving in the game, Pat Bryant catches the ball 20 yards downfield and sneaks into the end zone with 4 seconds left. Had Schiano just fallen into the fetal position and let Illinois stick with their foolish decision, Rutgers has 7 wins tonight. Instead, he inserts himself and sabotages his team's opportunity to win, as it seems many coaches do each week. When will the idiocy end? "NEVER!!!!" answers Kenny Dilligham. I don't have the energy to chronicle that abomination, but I trust you all know what I'm talking about.

A few bouquets I want to offer:

I mentioned it, but hats off to Bill Napier and Florida. They are bowl eligible despite a ton of injuries(both starting corners, the starting QB(and his backup for a game and a half), their best deep threat, a couple pf defensive linemen, etc) and despite navigating what might be the toughest schedule in the country. Ole Miss fell victim last week(as did I). Kudos to Florida.

Also, I was beginning to wonder if Trou Calhoun forgot how to coach, but he has proven that possibility to be false. It just took a little bit of time to find the right QB, and Air Force is right back to the cusp of APR Bowl eligibility despite looking like a bottom 5 team for most of the year.

Hooray to Bronco Mendenhall. He goes from a close to double digit favorite at home to an FCS team in week 1 at New Mexico to a team with 5 wins and a shot at a bowl if they can beat Hawaii this week. Bronco is a hell of a coach.

Miami(OH) +3 WIN
East Carolina -2.5 LOSS
Georgia Tech +19 WIN
South Carolina +3 WIN
Vanderbilt +10.5 LOSS
UTSA +7 WIN
Kansas ML LOSS
Eastern Michigan +7 LOSS
Arkansas +3 LOSS
Central Michigan +12.5 WIN
Fresno State +8.5 WIN
Kansas State +2.5 LOSS
Cal +13.5 LOSS
LSU -5.5 WIN
Texas A&M +5.5 LOSS


7-8


On to the week.

Friday:

1. Miami(OH) +3(-115) @ Bowling Green (BOL) : I have a conference future on BG so I have a hedge situation in play here, but let's just say I am not all that confident that the Falcons can pull this one off, even though they are at home and are favored by a FG. First of all I think the RedHawks are the better team, and I think they've played the better schedule. They certainly match up better unit for unit than BG does. Miami is 10th in the country on defense in overall yads per play, they're 35th against the run and 4th against the pass, which is bad for BG because they are a much better passing offense. Miami hasn't faced a murderer's row of pass offenses, but Cincy and Notre Dame couldn't throw it on them, and the vast majority of BG's receiving yards belong to assumed Mackey Award winning TE Harold Fannin, who is very questionable for this game. If he plays he won't be 100%, so that will leave the burden to QB Connor Bazelek, who has proven many times that he is not capable of much of anything without top level talent around him. BG also struggles to stop the run, which is Miami's forte and the weather forecast looks shaky at best. Chuck Martin has proven himself to be a very smart coach, and Miami has been in this spot before. With a lot riding on this for both teams(winner plays Ohio in the MAC title game) I trust Miami, so I'll take the points.

Fannin played but it didn't really matter. Miami dominated this one from beginning to end.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @East Carolina -2.5 v Navy (BR) : I liked this one at ECU +2 with Blake Horvath playing, and I like it at ECU -2.5, which has moved I can only assume because Navy is holding Horvath out in what amounts to be a meaningless game for the Mids with the Army/Navy game coming up. Horvath has clearly been injured since the Notre Dame game, and that was evident by his play and as a result, the plummeting performance of the Midshipmen in the interim. They've lost 2 out of 3 since, and if USF could stop the run with any competence, they might have been 0 for 3 in those games. There's a big drop off to backup Braxton Woodson who can't throw the ball at all and is a major drop off in his run decisions. Navy's defense has never been good this year, ranking poorly against a bad schedule in most categories. ECU's offense on the other hand, has been on fire since the Pirates shed coach Mike Houston and went with interim Blake Harrell. Since then ECU has reeled off 4 wins in a row, averaging 46 points and 540 yards per game. Harrell's promotion coincided roughly with the move to Katin Houser at QB, and the Pirates haven't looked back. ECU grades out well as a run defense, which is obviously important in a game against Navy. With Woodson likely in there at QB, it's doubly important, but even if Navy gets their offense rolling, which I seriously doubt, I don't see a lot of evidence that hey can slow down this Pirate offense that has been very versatile lately, with Rahjai Harris having scored 10 TDs and approaching 1,000 yards and 4 different wide receivers that have led the team in receiving this year. ECU will probably get an added boost from the permanent promotion of Harrell, which happened Wednesday. If navy can overcome all this, I'll tip my cap, but this looks like a continuation of the positive vibes for ECU

The vibes, they were not positive. Horvath also did not play, but Woodson looked like Horvath or even vintage Keenan Reynolds. He threw it effectively and ran it great. Midway through the 3rd quarter, Katin Houser was something like 6-19 for 45 yards. Hero to zero in a week, and although the ECU offense eventually picked things up, the defense was bad. It was a total stinker for the Pirates on their home field.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Georgia Tech +19 @Georgia (BOL) : I've been talking about it all year, but Georgia does not profile as an elite team statistically, regardless of how badly college football pundits want it to be true so they can lazily just prognosticate Georgia as "the most talented team" and do some research into who is actually good and not just follow narratives. Georgia specifically is not all that great against the run on defense, and none other than the coachless corpse of UMass demonstrated that for us last week by running for 226 yards, and that's after 40 yards in sacks were deducted from their total. UMass's top 3 rushers went for 231 yards on 27 carries (8.5 yards per), and the Dawgs will be lining up against a very good running squad with a tricky scheme this week in the Yellowjackets. I think Haynes King is going to play, even though he is struggling badly with a bad shoulder. Even if King can't go(and I have heard nothing indicating that he won't be available), GT has settled on Aaron Philo rather than the incompetent Zack Pryon. Philo has a good arm and can also move much better than Pyron, but the major strength of the GT offense is the running game design by OC Buster Faulkner. If Georgia is sloppy, GT will move the ball on them. GT is also pretty resourceful on defense. They aren't great on a per play basis, but they don't give up a lot of points and they are very good on 3rd down. Carson beck is mistake prone to say the least, and this defense is good enough to take advantage is Beck gives them some gifts. Also, Brent key has been extremely good as a dog since he took over and covered easily as a big dog in both games he's teed it up with Kirby Smart. On the flip side, Georgia is 5-17 as a favorite of 17 or more since the beginning of the '22 season, so this isn't a good spot for them. Georgia has bigger fish to fry, so there's no reason fo them to try to get margin here as they are already set in the SEC title game. This sets up as a good spot for a GT cover in my opinion.

There's so much that can be said about this game. #1 has to be: "Does anyone have any decent plays that they can run from the 3 yard line when you need a score?" Apparently not. I was rooting hard for GT to get the outright, but they did not have it in them. Rocking chair for the spread though. Exhibit 500 that Georgia is not a juggernaut. This week I heard someone say, "I am praying Georgia gets matched up with Penn State in 3 weeks." Why? I get the James Franklin fades, but what exactly is it about Georgia that evokes so much confidence in them?

 

[M.W.]

3. Georgia Tech +19 @Georgia (BOL) : I've been talking about it all year, but Georgia does not profile as an elite team statistically, regardless of how badly college football pundits want it to be true so they can lazily just prognosticate Georgia as "the most talented team" and do some research into who is actually good and not just follow narratives. Georgia specifically is not all that great against the run on defense, and none other than the coachless corpse of UMass demonstrated that for us last week by running for 226 yards, and that's after 40 yards in sacks were deducted from their total. UMass's top 3 rushers went for 231 yards on 27 carries (8.5 yards per), and the Dawgs will be lining up against a very good running squad with a tricky scheme this week in the Yellowjackets. I think Haynes King is going to play, even though he is struggling badly with a bad shoulder. Even if King can't go(and I have heard nothing indicating that he won't be available), GT has settled on Aaron Philo rather than the incompetent Zack Pryon. Philo has a good arm and can also move much better than Pyron, but the major strength of the GT offense is the running game design by OC Buster Faulkner. If Georgia is sloppy, GT will move the ball on them. GT is also pretty resourceful on defense. They aren't great on a per play basis, but they don't give up a lot of points and they are very good on 3rd down. Carson beck is mistake prone to say the least, and this defense is good enough to take advantage is Beck gives them some gifts. Also, Brent key has been extremely good as a dog since he took over and covered easily as a big dog in both games he's teed it up with Kirby Smart. On the flip side, Georgia is 5-17 as a favorite of 17 or more since the beginning of the '22 season, so this isn't a good spot for them. Georgia has bigger fish to fry, so there's no reason fo them to try to get margin here as they are already set in the SEC title game. This sets up as a good spot for a GT cover in my opinion.

Kirby doesn’t care about games like the UMass game. Best example was the last time they played Mass, in 2018. Allowed 27 points at 7.22 yards per play. Alabama was second best that year with 6.40 yards per play against UGA.

Kirby is 8-1 ATS in this price range (-15 to -20) by an average of 10.1 points, 3-0 since the start of 2022.

Look at the rush defense against Clemson and Texas.

Asking Tech to do this a third straight year is too much in my opinion.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. South Carolina +3(-114) @Clemson (BR) : This one has been going up a bit, but I don't think it'll get to 3.5. I have these two teams graded out pretty even by raw numbers, but once you adjust for schedule, there's a pretty solid edge for South Carolina. Clemson has taken care of business, but it's been against a very weak string of teams. Stanford, NC State, Wake Forest, and Florida State were among the victims, all of them either hurt or just plain bad when they played Clemson. Virginia Tech was completely banged up and it took the Tigers awhile to dispatch of them(who now might not even get to 6 wins), and they barely escaped with their lives against a Pitt team in the middle of a complete nosedive playing their backup QB. In that game Nate Yarnell threw for 300+ and they gave up 438 yards of offense against a Pitt offense that hadn't been effective in non-garbage team in more than a month. South Carolina's strength has been it's defense(and certainly it's defensive line) but their offense has kicked into gear lately, averaging 513 yards per game over the past 4 games. It's the South Crolina defense that has led the Gamecocks to an 8-3 record however. Their defense is ranked 7th in overall yards per play, 8th against the run, 22nd on 3rd down, and they are 3rd in sack rate. Cade Klubnik has been better this year, but my guess is that pressure from a defense miles better than what he has seen recently will lead hi to some of the mistakes he's been prone to make since we've been paying attention to him. I think if Clemson stuck with the running game and Phil Mafah they'd be best served, but there might be some TFLs that make them lose patience with it. Their OL is banged up and if they have to shuffle pieces around, that could be dangerous against such a disruptive DL. South Carolina has ben lights out on the road as well, pounding Kentucky early, completely running Oklahoma out of their own stadium, and handling a Vandy team that nobody else has been able to handle easily. While Clemson has been fattening up on ACC bottom feeders, South Carolina has been playing Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri and Vanderbilt, all of whom you can say is better than anyone on Clemson's schedule other than Georgia and possibly Louisville, both of whom dispatched Clemson rather easily. Great rivalry game here...I think they'll both bring as good a game as their capable, but I like South Carolina's recent pedigree on the road and I think the Gamecocks size up to be the better team here.

South Carolina tried like gangbusters to sabotage themselves with turnovers, but Sellers won it for them anyway.

 

[Br@ssknux]

MW, have at it. ^^^^^

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Vanderbilt +10.5 v Tennessee (BR) : Again, this is an auto play. Last week, I played Vandy as a 9 point dog in Baton Rouge. Coming into that game Garrett Nussmeier was playing horribly, having completely lost all semblance of have to play quarterback. We hoped for Vandy's sake he wouldn't figure it out, and that Vandy's offense would find some holes in a porous LSU defense. None of that happened. Vandy was held to 308 yards and Nussmeier looked like he did earlier in the year, pretty much doing what he wanted, piling up 480 yards in the process. Everything Vandy didn't want, came to fruition. They covered anyway. Now Pavia is a double digit dog again, and in those games over the past two years, he's delivered, winning outright several times and covering by an average of 12 points a game. The numbers will tell you Tennessee here, but we've all seen Tennessee try to play offense in conference...it hasn't been pretty. The Vols are averaging just over 20 points a game in conference, and if you're looking for margin, that's not enough offense. Vandy's defense has held up against better offenses (Texas, Alabama) and Tennessee has struggled to score on the road against comparable defenses (Arkansas). Vandy and Pavia as a dog has to be an auto play, especially when facing a Tennessee offense prone to major dry spells.

Great start, but the game was too long for the Dores. Great run by Pavia. Nico and the Tennessee offense proved me wrong. I didn't forsee them being explosive like they were, and the Tennessee secondary covered fantastically all day.

 

[M.W.]

i lean South Carolina as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. UTSA +7 @Army (BR) : Army has obviously had a great year, and I've been able to cash some tickets with them, but I don't like them in this spot as a decent sized favorite against UTSA. The Roadrunners have not had a great year, mostly because they had to adapt to life without Frank Harris, who was there for what seemed like a decade, but they've looked much better lately, especially on offense. Owen McCown has been great in recent weeks, albeit against defenses not as good as Army. They've also found ways to lose on the road, but they were almost unconscionable collapses as a favorite, and in this case they're in the dog role. Offensively they are on an extreme role, putting up almost 600 yards per game in their last 4. It's a terrible spot for Army. They got beat to a pulp last week against Notre Dame, and they are already locked into the American title game against Tulane next week and then of course the Navy game the week after that. I can't come up with any reason that they would subject Bryson Daily to another beating like he took last week. There is no upside to winning this game for them, and there's downside if their players continue to take beatings because all they care about is still ahead of them. Why would Daily run it 30 more times this week? On top of that, UTSA has been very solid against the run, which is vital in Army's case. They've been torched through the air, and Army is capable of moving the ball in the pass game, but it's certainly not their M.O.. This just seems like a very difficult spot for Army. They certainly are in character to put all of that aside and fight like crazy, but I'll take my chances with a UTSA team coached by Jeff Traylor who has a track record of high level play. Weather looks like mid 40's and sunny, so they should be ok on that front as well.


UTSA wasn't good on offense, but they did well enough to cover the number. Bryson Daily with 27 more carries. What a warrior that guy is.

 

[Br@ssknux]

By the way Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I hope you all have a great day with family, and get a chance to reminisce about those you've lost. I know I will. There's a ton to be thankful for, but one small thing is that we have this place to gather. Thanks to BAR and everyone else for providing us with a place to shoot the shit and scratch the itch we have to talk about this nonsense.

 

[2daBank]

2. @East Carolina -2.5 v Navy (BR) : I liked this one at ECU +2 with Blake Horvath playing, and I like it at ECU -2.5, which has moved I can only assume because Navy is holding Horvath out in what amounts to be a meaningless game for the Mids with the Army/Navy game coming up. Horvath has clearly been injured since the Notre Dame game, and that was evident by his play and as a result, the plummeting performance of the Midshipmen in the interim. They've lost 2 out of 3 since, and if USF could stop the run with any competence, they might have been 0 for 3 in those games. There's a big drop off to backup Braxton Woodson who can't throw the ball at all and is a major drop off in his run decisions. Navy's defense has never been good this year, ranking poorly against a bad schedule in most categories. ECU's offense on the other hand, has been on fire since the Pirates shed coach Mike Houston and went with interim Blake Harrell. Since then ECU has reeled off 4 wins in a row, averaging 46 points and 540 yards per game. Harrell's promotion coincided roughly with the move to Katin Houser at QB, and the Pirates haven't looked back. ECU grades out well as a run defense, which is obviously important in a game against Navy. With Woodson likely in there at QB, it's doubly important, but even if Navy gets their offense rolling, which I seriously doubt, I don't see a lot of evidence that hey can slow down this Pirate offense that has been very versatile lately, with Rahjai Harris having scored 10 TDs and approaching 1,000 yards and 4 different wide receivers that have led the team in receiving this year. ECU will probably get an added boost from the permanent promotion of Harrell, which happened Wednesday. If navy can overcome all this, I'll tip my cap, but this looks like a continuation of the positive vibes for ECU

I was really hoping for props on this game but thus far havnt found any, think ecu pass game will be a lot for navy to handle. You so right bout navy qb, I was crushing his passing props weeks they had them till he hurt his thumb, since then his ability to throw been non existent. Playing or not doesn’t even matter imo without his passing ability he the same as whoever else runs the O.

 

[2daBank]

5. @Vanderbilt +10.5 v Tennessee (BR) : Again, this is an auto play. Last week, I played Vandy as a 9 point dog in Baton Rouge. Coming into that game Garrett Nussmeier was playing horribly, having completely lost all semblance of have to play quarterback. We hoped for Vandy's sake he wouldn't figure it out, and that Vandy's offense would find some holes in a porous LSU defense. None of that happened. Vandy was held to 308 yards and Nussmeier looked like he did earlier in the year, pretty much doing what he wanted, piling up 480 yards in the process. Everything Vandy didn't want, came to fruition. They covered anyway. Now Pavia is a double digit dog again, and in those games over the past two years, he's delivered, winning outright several times and covering by an average of 12 points a game. The numbers will tell you Tennessee here, but we've all seen Tennessee try to play offense in conference...it hasn't been pretty. The Vols are averaging just over 20 points a game in conference, and if you're looking for margin, that's not enough offense. Vandy's defense has held up against better offenses (Texas, Alabama) and Tennessee has struggled to score on the road against comparable defenses (Arkansas). Vandy and Pavia as a dog has to be an auto play, especially when facing a Tennessee offense prone to major dry spells.

Thought same thing when I saw line.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Kansas ML (-121) @Baylor: Both of these teams have been playing just about as well as anyone in the Big 12, and I've cashed tickets multiple times on both, but I'm going to stick with Kansas here even though I acknowledge that the books and the gambling public have caught on to the Jayhawks and pretty much all the value has been sucked out of them. Having said that, I give them some edges here, and I think the motivation of pulling out a bowl berth after having started 1-5 is very strong. Since that 1-5 mark, the only loss for Kansas was at K State in a game they caught some horrific luck. In their other 4 games, they've beaten Houston, then Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in succession, with those 3 teams having a combined record of 24-3 when they played them. In this game, the offenses will have the advantage over the defenses, but I especially like KU's 4th ranked 3rd down offense, and their defense surprisingly has an edge over the Baylor offense on 3rd down as well. Baylor's defensive numbers don't look bad, but I think they're skewed by some great bully performance against bad defenses. They shut down Houston, Utah(with Zack Wilson) and early season Air Force, but they've given up 435 yards at least to everyone else, and you can make a case that Kansas will be the top offense they've played. Ultimately, I think KU has a slight edge on the field when you match up the units head to head, and the additional motivational edge of reaching bowl eligibility I believe puts the Jayhawks over the top.

This was a force. Baylor has arguably been just as good as Kansas lately. 600+ yards for the Bears The KU D was helpless against them and they finally reverted back to earlier in the year with the turnovers. Also, I might be 0 for the year on ML plays.

 

[2daBank]

7. Kansas ML (-121) @Baylor: Both of these teams have been playing just about as well as anyone in the Big 12, and I've cashed tickets multiple times on both, but I'm going to stick with Kansas here even though I acknowledge that the books and the gambling public have caught on to the Jayhawks and pretty much all the value has been sucked out of them. Having said that, I give them some edges here, and I think the motivation of pulling out a bowl berth after having started 1-5 is very strong. Since that 1-5 mark, the only loss for Kansas was at K State in a game they caught some horrific luck. In their other 4 games, they've beaten Houston, then Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in succession, with those 3 teams having a combined record of 24-3 when they played them. In this game, the offenses will have the advantage over the defenses, but I especially like KU's 4th ranked 3rd down offense, and their defense surprisingly has an edge over the Baylor offense on 3rd down as well. Baylor's defensive numbers don't look bad, but I think they're skewed by some great bully performance against bad defenses. They shut down Houston, Utah(with Zack Wilson) and early season Air Force, but they've given up 435 yards at least to everyone else, and you can make a case that Kansas will be the top offense they've played. Ultimately, I think KU has a slight edge on the field when you match up the units head to head, and the additional motivational edge of reaching bowl eligibility I believe puts the Jayhawks over the top.

Just said in another thread I love this play. I been saying for a month ku the best team in big12, Shame they blew all those 4th qrtr leads but there no way they came all this way and losing out here to miss a bowl game. This a big play for me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Eastern Michigan +7(-115) @Western Michigan (BOL) : I don't think this line should be this high. These are a couple of similar teams in a rivalry game, both defenses are weak, both pass offenses are questionable. WMU can run it a little bit, but EMU is pretty good on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Also, I think EMU can force WMU QB Hayden Wolf into some mistakes because they can get after the passer a little bit, and that's not the case for WMU. Ultimately, I think it's a coin flip game, and I trust Chris Creighton as a road dog, so I'll take the 7 with the Hurons. Also, did you know that EMU has won 4 of the last 5 outright in this series and that EMU was a dog in all 5 of them by at least as FG? Also, EMU has not been favored in this game since 1997(!!!) and since 2011, EMU is 7-6 straight up in the series? Good karma for EMU IMO.

Terrible start, the Eagles were chasing all day, and the best they could do was get to 8.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Central Michigan +12.5 v Northern Illinois: NIU is almost always a fade for me as a home favorite, but in this case, I like the matchup for CMU as well. Defensively, CMU has been playing pretty well lately, and throughout the year they've been very good on third down and can get to the QB. This NIU offense is not good, and they can't throw the ball to save their lives. If CMU can stand up against the run and get them in 3rd down and medium or better, this game might turn into a punt fest. Also, CMU can run the ball, and if NIU has any issues on defense(they probably don't, but if they did) it's in the run game, as WMU and even Ball State have been able to run it on NIU in recent weeks. I don't know who is going to play QB for CMU, but they'll have mtivation because coach Jim McIlwain has announced his retirement, so this will be his last game. Also, NIU is 3-13 since 2021 as a home favorite, and CMU has almost a cosmic dominance over the Huskies in recent years. Consider: In the last 7 times that CMU has been a dog against Northern, the Chips have won all 7 outright!! They've won 9 out of the last 10 in this series and have been favored only 3 times.(The only loss came in 2021 when CMU was a 5.5 favorite in Mt Pleasant). I think the Chips at least keep this close, and recent history tell you they're at least worth a few bucks on the money line.

Comfortably within the number for CMU. Not much offense in the second half. NIU now 3-14 as a home favorite. Happy trails Jim McIlvain

 

[ksimpsc]

4. South Carolina +3(-114) @Clemson (BR)

Agree with all the above. The one thing that I will say that concerned me in the Mizzou game was the runs up the middle were dominating and they kept going to it knowing the pass rush was waiting for a chance to sack the QB. This all but neutralized the Gamecock stellar DL for most of the game. I do not think Clemson has the OL to keep this up over an extended period but could cause some problems if they find the same success on first down runs.

 

[B.A.R.]

4. South Carolina +3(-114) @Clemson (BR) : This one has been going up a bit, but I don't think it'll get to 3.5. I have these two teams graded out pretty even by raw numbers, but once you adjust for schedule, there's a pretty solid edge for South Carolina. Clemson has taken care of business, but it's been against a very weak string of teams. Stanford, NC State, Wake Forest, and Florida State were among the victims, all of them either hurt or just plain bad when they played Clemson. Virginia Tech was completely banged up and it took the Tigers awhile to dispatch of them(who now might not even get to 6 wins), and they barely escaped with their lives against a Pitt team in the middle of a complete nosedive playing their backup QB. In that game Nate Yarnell threw for 300+ and they gave up 438 yards of offense against a Pitt offense that hadn't been effective in non-garbage team in more than a month. South Carolina's strength has been it's defense(and certainly it's defensive line) but their offense has kicked into gear lately, averaging 513 yards per game over the past 4 games. It's the South Crolina defense that has led the Gamecocks to an 8-3 record however. Their defense is ranked 7th in overall yards per play, 8th against the run, 22nd on 3rd down, and they are 3rd in sack rate. Cade Klubnik has been better this year, but my guess is that pressure from a defense miles better than what he has seen recently will lead hi to some of the mistakes he's been prone to make since we've been paying attention to him. I think if Clemson stuck with the running game and Phil Mafah they'd be best served, but there might be some TFLs that make them lose patience with it. Their OL is banged up and if they have to shuffle pieces around, that could be dangerous against such a disruptive DL. South Carolina has ben lights out on the road as well, pounding Kentucky early, completely running Oklahoma out of their own stadium, and handling a Vandy team that nobody else has been able to handle easily. While Clemson has been fattening up on ACC bottom feeders, South Carolina has been playing Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri and Vanderbilt, all of whom you can say is better than anyone on Clemson's schedule other than Georgia and possibly Louisville, both of whom dispatched Clemson rather easily. Great rivalry game here...I think they'll both bring as good a game as their capable, but I like South Carolina's recent pedigree on the road and I think the Gamecocks size up to be the better team here.

Yes yes yes!

 

[2daBank]

Yes yes yes!

Believe I’ll be here with ya’ll

 

[2daBank]

Agree with all the above. The one thing that I will say that concerned me in the Mizzou game was the runs up the middle were dominating and they kept going to it knowing the pass rush was waiting for a chance to sack the QB. This all but neutralized the Gamecock stellar DL for most of the game. I do not think Clemson has the OL to keep this up over an extended period but could cause some problems if they find the same success on first down runs.

That a really good point. Mizzou pretty much abandoned the thought of throwing and just ran ran and ran some more. I’m not sure how they stack up comparatively but not like Mizzou oline and run game been dominant. Clemson def has the better back.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Agree with all the above. The one thing that I will say that concerned me in the Mizzou game was the runs up the middle were dominating and they kept going to it knowing the pass rush was waiting for a chance to sack the QB. This all but neutralized the Gamecock stellar DL for most of the game. I do not think Clemson has the OL to keep this up over an extended period but could cause some problems if they find the same success on first down runs.

You're right, it's a potential problem. I've always been a big fan of Phil Mafah. Potential injury concerns for the Clemson line. Hopefully they are banged up and unable to get a push.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Arkansas +3 @Missouri (BOL) : If you focus strictly on the results of the season and not what a prevailing perception might be, in my opinion there is very little doubt that Arkansas has been the better team between these two despite their records. Arkansas is about a full yard better than Missouri in yards per play margin and this is despite Arkansas playing a significantly tougher schedule. The one area that Missouri has been good all year on both sides of the ball has been on 3rd down, but Arkansas has the edge when you match these units up in every other area with the possible exception of special teams. There's nothing remarkable about Missouri's body of work. They beat BC and Vanderbilt at home but were lucky to do it in both cases, same with Auburn who collapsed in the 4th quarter. The Oklahoma game was gifted to them. They were completely non-competitive against Texas A&M and Alabama, and one of their positive data points was hanging close with South Carolina. That's about it. Arkansas should have beaten the A&M team that ran Mizzou out of the building and did beat Tennessee, who is on the way to the playoff if they can get one more win. Also, Sam Pittman is a master at covering as a road dog, 9-2 in that role since 2021. I'll definitely take the 3 with the team I have capped as the better side.

Hogs were winning late but gave up a late TD to stay outside the number. Usually you'll see a FG there in that situation, but Brady Cook ran unmolested from about 40 yards out in the final minute. Game was played to a statistical standstill. Tough break at the end there.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Fresno State +8.5 @UCLA (BOL) : Major schedule difference for UCLA, but the matchup so favors Fresno that I really can't ignore it. First of all, UCLA has nothing to play for here. They're eliminated from bowl contention and they just left everything on the field last week in their rivalry game with USC which they blew. UCLA absolutely cannot run the ball, so they've focused on the pass. They're 117th in run play percentage for the year, so they don't even really try to run the ball. That's good news for Fresno because they are among the best pass defenses in the country, ranking 5th in yards per pass attempt. Offensively, Fresno is similar to UCLA in that they don't run it, but stopping the run is UCLA's strength on defense, not stopping the pass. In addition, UCLA can't get off the field on 3rd down, ranking 131st in that category. UCLA also does not rush the passer well, so Mikey Keene should have time to get comfortable in the pocket. As for the schedule strength. UCLA played Hawaii to a standstill in their opener, which shows that this UCLA squad will not be in a position to bully anyone. Fresno hasn't been great this year, but they're a proud program who expects to compete in games like this, and based on what happened last week, I don't know how much UCLA even cares about this one.

I like Tim Skipper. He covered the number by doing what coaches should always do when down two scores. Once you get in comfortable FG range, kick it, then on-sides it.

 

[M.W.]

You're right, it's a potential problem. I've always been a big fan of Phil Mafah. Potential injury concerns for the Clemson line. Hopefully they are banged up and unable to get a push.

Clemson will have just 4-6 scholarship OL available for this game. Lost one on Tuesday. LG Tate and LT Leigh are ??

 

[2daBank]

10. Arkansas +3 @Missouri (BOL) : If you focus strictly on the results of the season and not what a prevailing perception might be, in my opinion there is very little doubt that Arkansas has been the better team between these two despite their records. Arkansas is about a full yard better than Missouri in yards per play margin and this is despite Arkansas playing a significantly tougher schedule. The one area that Missouri has been good all year on both sides of the ball has been on 3rd down, but Arkansas has the edge when you match these units up in every other area with the possible exception of special teams. There's nothing remarkable about Missouri's body of work. They beat BC and Vanderbilt at home but were lucky to do it in both cases, same with Auburn who collapsed in the 4th quarter. The Oklahoma game was gifted to them. They were completely non-competitive against Texas A&M and Alabama, and one of their positive data points was hanging close with South Carolina. That's about it. Arkansas should have beaten the A&M team that ran Mizzou out of the building and did beat Tennessee, who is on the way to the playoff if they can get one more win. Also, Sam Pittman is a master at covering as a road dog, 9-2 in that role since 2021. I'll definitely take the 3 with the team I have capped as the better side.

Like this also. Mizzou not only hasn’t beat a ranked team they got hammered by them. Or maybe Vandy was ranked when they beat them in ot? Either way it a joke comparing the 2 schedules. My only concern is same as always with arky, taylen green like a box of chocolates. Never fucjing know

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Kansas State +2.5 @Iowa State (BR) : The loser of this game is eliminated from the B12 title game, with the winner still staying alive but in need of help. This game looks to me like it will come down to the wire, but there's a couple reasons I like Kansas State other than the benefit of the points. Iowa State's defense has not been good, most notably against the run. They haven't been able to stop the run all year(ranked 112th) and Kansas State as usual, runs the ball very effectively, ranking 6th in the country in yards per rush attempt. You also cannot run on K State, so Iowa State's surprisingly weak run game is unlikely to get on track. Iowa State also does not pressure the QB, which is good news for K State QB Avery Johnson who has 19 TDs and 9 picks. Iowa State is still banged up in the linebacker corps, which keeps things a bit on the unstable side, which is good for a QB that loves to run like Johnson does, and Iowa State is good in coverage so that might be the way the Wildcats attack this game. It's going to come down to whether K State's run offense can have as much or more success than the Cyclones passing game does, because Becht has been good and pass defense is the primary bugaboo for K State. Since K State can pressure the QB, I give them a better chance at being successful than I do the Cyclones being able to stop the run, something they haven't really sone all year. We should also remember that Matt Campbell is 2-7-1 as a home favorite of 3 or fewer, and I'm pretty confident that we will have the much better coaching staff in this game. Give me the better staff and the points in a tight game like this.

Fumble the opening kickoff, Check!
Get stopped on downs early from within the 5 yard line? Check!
Give up a TD with 6 seconds left in the first half to allow the opponent to double dip when they receive the 2nd half kickoff? Check
Have your QB ran 22 yards backwards and then heave it to nobody for a grounding call and a safety? Check.

Despite all that, they still could have easily covered. If you would have told me K State would give up only 137 passing yards, I would have assumed they won by 10+

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Cal +13.5 @SMU (BR) : This is a little out of chronological order, but after some additional review, I'm adding this one. Cal sits at 6-5, but they could very easily have 4 more wins. They had Miami beat and lost on a miracle, the Florida State game was a complete joke and mystery even 8 weeks later, and they outgained FSU by a million yards in that game, and they missed game winning field goals against Pitt and NC State. You can make a case they could be 9-1 entering this game. This is a good Cal team that hasn't been blown out by anyone. They're good mostly because of their defense. They rank 17th in overall yards per play, 12th in yards per rush, 29th on 3rd down and they pressure the QB, ranking 19th in sack rate. Offensively they can throw the ball with Mendoza, and I think they'll have success through the air against this SMU pass defense that does not overmatch them, if they can protect Mendoza. I didn't really like what I saw the last time SMU was in a spot like this two weeks ago against BC, who played them pretty much to a standstill. The Mustangs have their spot in the ACC title game sown up, so they have a built in excuse to be lazy in this game. Cal under Wilcox has always been a very solid road dog, and the Bears already have proven their mettle on the road by flying across the country and beating Auburn ouright and taking care of business at Wake. I'll take the points here.

This was dead when Mendoza turned up with an Illness and ended up being a late scratch .Cal looked deflated from the tip.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @LSU -5.5 v Oklahoma (BR) : Here I go again hitching my wagon up to Garrett Nussmeier. We'll see if I need my head examined, but I really don't like this spot for Oklahoma. They had their miracle performance of the year last week by beating Alabama like a drum in Norman, but can they get up for another effort like that this week? They did it by just running Jackson Arnold in a kamikaze mission, but along with him and Xavier Robinson they busted enough long ones to move the chains and set up their defense which also scored. They absolutely can't throw the ball, and a season long resume of futility on 3rd down and in the running game tells us their flirtation with competency on the offensive end will probably be short lived. LSU rushes the passer very well and OU is 132nd in sacks allowed, so they better run it well. On defense, OU is great against the run, but they get torched through the air against good passing attacks if they can't get to the QB, and LSU is a bad matchup in that regard because they can protect, although they haven't been as good in that category lately. OU is 80th in yards per pass attempt, so Nussmeier should be able to have success. The line is dipping, so I think people are assuming the Oklahoma we saw last week will show up in Baton Rouge, rather than the one that's been here the other 11 weeks. I don't trust OU's offense enough to challenge to win this one, so I'll lay the 5.5 in a spot that I think is very challenging.

One of my better calls of the day. Nussmeier was pretty good, so it worked out.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15. @Texas A&M +5.5 v Texas (BR) : I just don't think we have the evidence to indicate that Texas can go on the road and take care of business n a tough environment against a good defense like A&M. Texas has great numbers on defense, and maybe they'll shut down A&M, but they've played so few good offenses that it's hard to tell. The Horns have been underwhelming many times as a road favorite under Sarkisian, including this year against Arkansas and Vandy, the only conference games they've played on the road. Offensively, they haven't really looked great against decent defenses, as even Arkansas and Vandy held up well against them. A&M has to have this one as they can still make the playoff if they get to the SEC title game and beat a very beatable Georgia team. Texas is probably in the playoff regardless of what they do here, so there's look to tomorrow if things start getting away from them. I have this handicapped as a toss up, so I'll gladly take the points with the home team here.

Pathetic effort by A&M. Probably for the best because they would have been playing for the playoff, and they aren't good enough to be in it. Despite all of that, and about a 10 percentile performance from the Aggies, they were on the one foot line late to get within the number.

 

[Timh]

BOL Brass, have a great day!

 

[Br@ssknux]

That might be it for the day.

Others considered:

Kentucky has dominated the series with Louisville lately, especially when they've been dogged. Also, Louisville is horrific as a road favorite, having now dropped all 5 in that role under Brohm. But kentucky's offense has been terrible and they are moving to a true freshman making his first start. Still like the Cats as an SEC home dog against an ACC team, but not quite enough to write it up.

Same thing with Monroe. They've been great as a home dog, and LaLa looks vulnerable with the backup QB and weak defense, but La MO has burned me by being a sad sack team with terrible luck. I'll be rooting for them though because they can still get the rare bowl trip with a 6th win here.

Air Force will probably handle San Diego State, but the line got away from me.

I fear for Purdue's well being against a pissed off and vengeful Indiana, but once the line gets over 30, it's too random for me.

Thought about Auburn, but they could outgain Alabama by 200 yards and lose by 21. They should hold their own in this one though. Also not big on the spot coming off last week's results for both teams. Lowest possible value on the dog.

I think VT should do what they always do and handle Virginia, but how can you trust them? Also, 3rd string QB is likely playing, although he put points up at Duke last week. I erased a VT write for that one, just don't trust the Hokies to get margin against anyone right now. If they do it against anyone, it'll be UVA in this game, but I took a pass on writing that one up.

JMU should handle a Marshall team that has been living a charmed life with an efficient offense and a lucky defense, but JMu has underperformed their numbers, so the line looks a little fishy, and how the 3.5 has appeared. Matchups say JMU should roll though.

That's it! Hope everyone has a great day!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

BOL Brass, have a great day!

You too Timmy

 

[Br@ssknux]

Coming into the week the overall was at 86-77-2, forgot to mention that at the beginning. 7-8 this week, brought the regular season to a close at 93-85-2. Not a great week, some tough beats, some lucky wins. Year long performance was weak and would lose money, but it was fun like always. thanks to all who contributed!!

 

[twinkie13]

Best CFB thread every year!!! I still say a good year Br@ss.

 

[wiseplayer]

Fun and informative thread. The NFL feels so anticlimactic today after yesterday. Looking forward to your thoughts moving into December.

 

[bones]

Coming into the week the overall was at 86-77-2, forgot to mention that at the beginning. 7-8 this week, brought the regular season to a close at 93-85-2. Not a great week, some tough beats, some lucky wins. Year long performance was weak and would lose money, but it was fun like always. thanks to all who contributed!!

You are so nice to do this every week. Thank you