Week 14 NFL

scdoggy

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
Tough time of year for NFL betting, as teams who are out of the hunt become tougher to figure out, and lines are generally sharper than the early part of the year. But I do see two that I like quite a bit:

San Franciso -10 two units

Nice spot here for the Niners, off a tough loss playing at home against a team that backdoored the Pats last week, traveling cross country. As some of you may remember from last season, I've been jocking this Frisco team for quite a while, and I love their odds of playing in the big game this season. There isn't much of anything that this team doesn't do exceptionally well, and they get to host a Miami bunch, that despite covering last week - fumbled the football five times. Sure they recovered four of them, but that kind of play doesn't amount to a cover here. SF has the second best pass defense in the league and when Miami gets behind and is forced to throw, they are going to have a hell of a time doing it. I just don't see any kind of scenario unfolding where the Niners struggle to win this game by two scores.

Houston +3 +110 two units

Can New England stuff the run on Monday? I think that's what this one boils down to. Houston will try to establish the run, and control TOP and keep Brady and company off the field. If they can do this, they win the game - its as simple as that. I think they can. Their O line should be able to control the line of scrimmage and if Foster can get 4-5 yards per carry in this one, all the Belichick in the world won't make a difference.

I'll admit this line is begging for Texan money, but I'm going to call this one like I see it....
 
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GL. Agree with everything you said except the Hou/NE line begging for Hou money. My site has NE -3 now which I think begs for NE money. These two would probably make good teaser partners as well.
 
Cman - I dunno. I feel like a bit of a sucker being on Houston (the 11-1 team getting three points at +110) but I do think they push the Pats around when they have the ball, and again - if they do that, they win.

Egg - let's get it bro. GL.

Born - Thanks -glad to be back. Good luck this weekend.
 
Redskins -140 1.5 units

I like the Skins here but honestly this is a bit of a tough spot for them. They have rolled through the division going 3-0 the last three weeks, and get Baltimore off a tough loss to Pit, while the Skins are on a short week and a SU win as a dog. Baltimore gets points for only the second time all season. Should be interesting. I like the Skins to keep it rolling, but they are going to have to bring it as Baltimore will be ready tomorrow.

Leaning SD, Under in Washington and NYG minus the pts....
 
Doggy, just fyi-Pats rank 7th in the league in Run defense efficency right now according to football outsiders. They're actually a very solid run stopping bunch.
 
Baltimore sucks, a very overrated team. Pitt also sucks a very overrated team
 
Lots of value with your Skins tomorrow. That said, I think Balty keeps it close.

Black Birds/Bucs/Steez/Browns/Indy in a tease. Let's get this.
 
Agree Joe - Ravens make great teaser bait for today. Good luck with it.

I don't think Baltimore or PIT sucks. I actually think if PIT gets healthy a PIT/SF thread will be all the rage in late Jan.

And Raems - I saw NE's run defense ranks pretty high up there, but a lot of the teams they have faced are not good at running the ball. If you look at how they fared against decent running teams, you'll see this:

Ray Rice went for 101 against them
Buffalo went for 162 and 98 against them in two games.
They held SEA to 85
Jets went over 100 in both games.

If you compare their performances against comparable (and HOU is better than most of these teams I've pointed out) rush attacks, they aren't anything special.
 
i feel like it kinda a stretch to expect hou to get 4-5 ypc, foster isnt even avg 4 on the year and he has looked kinda worn down lately,pats rush d is solid, while i understand the logic of rushing to control top and keep brady off the field i think they be much better served to come into this gm like they did the den gm and look to go deep early and often as johnson is starting to look like the guy we know him as which means no one has a answer for him, especially not pats secondary, think they come out with the heavy run action and either go over top to andre or hit daniels and try and loosen up the d for foster later...on other side pats are starting to run out of weapons with edelman now gone and hernadez gimpy, im sure bellicheat has taken notice of how vulnerable hou has been against the pass lately so i almost expect him to pull the rb switch and make this a woodhead gm so they can go no huddle to wear down hou front and woodhead gives brady another target that he needs..im considering hou ml and i agree feel like they begging me to take, but the play i really like is 1st half over 25.5 as both these teams love to jump out on teams and go for the jugular early, i kinda expect them to swap a pair of tds before the half.
 
2da - It should be an interesting game tonight from a fan and a bettors perspective. Both offenses have enough weapons to throw all sorts of things at the opposition. One thought that did cross my mind was Houston may have peaked too early. I went back over these two teams again this morning, and I still think Houston covers here. Linesmakers had to make NE the fave here, and I think if they really thought they would roll tonight, this line could have been even higher and money still would have come in on the Pats. I'm considering another unit on HOU at the current +4 -110....

Good luck
 
I see these two starting slow tonight with a quarter of "feel each other out" before the fireworks start:

First Quarter under 10 -115 two units
One more on Hou (now +6)
Hou +210 half unit
 
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