Week 14 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Results:
Ole Miss +430
Central Michigan +121
Pitt +410
Buffalo +200
FIU +142
TexasTech +245
Duke +335
Southern Miss +115
Fresno St +205
Auburn +175
Vandy +125
Weber St +115
Arizona St +110
San Jose St +725 (Thanks s--k & vk)
Ga Southern +170
Stanford +120
San Diego +650

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/?date=20171125

There we have for the end of the Regular Season.

On to Championship Week

I will do 1 more ML Dog Thread after this for the Bowl Season! We had some great discussions and winners last year.

Good Luck everyone,

Discuss away
 
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Stanford
Georgia
Wisconsin

Just a very quick glimpse and will find more

Wanna like Miami but that's gonna be tough to bet on, honestly think they're A. lucky and B. better than Clemson

Should get the best of them, if they're worse than Clemson it will show on Sat imo...not positive

More spitballing and don't need some Clemson fan to tell me anything I don't know. I already know.
 
Best performers:

Central Michigan +130, +292, +155, +100, +115
FIU +100, +368, +506, +203, +125

Teams with 4:
Arizona St +506, +711, +267, +110
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130
UAB +263, +166, +371, +192

Teams with 3:
Boston College +639, +207, +199
Cal +410, +237, +639
Duke +100, +203, +313,
East Carolina +176, +165, +170
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226
Maryland +664, +416, +203
North Texas +236, +100, +105
Rutgers +100, +237, +176
Southern Miss +274, +100, +105
ULL +184, +188, +130
UNLV +161, +876,+105
Utah St +100, +148, +144

odds are taken from scoresandodds
 
Miami D is pretty good, that I am sure of. Hard to be confident in their O however.
 
Will be the rare time I think the B12 champ deserves to be in, don't care who...SEC champ deserves...ACC champ deserves and obv is Wisky wins they deserve but could make quite the argument about the team not playin in the SEC ship to make it as opposed to the one loss team from the ACC

Anyone who knows me understands that would be difficult and I know they value wins more than losses...but losing at Syracuse and at Pitt is putrid
 
KJ said:
Will be the rare time I think the B12 champ deserves to be in, don't care who...SEC champ deserves...ACC champ deserves and obv is Wisky wins they deserve but could make quite the argument about the team not playin in the SEC ship to make it as opposed to the one loss team from the ACC

Anyone who knows me understands that would be difficult and I know they value wins more than losses...but losing at Syracuse and at Pitt is putrid
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Winning the schedule of the team you are referring to is awful. They will get in somehow. Sickens my stomach.
 
Like North Texas, but losing RB Wilson 2 weeks ago is a big loss. Memphis is really clicking right now, would think they compete better this time around, but still can't trust their D. Akron could cover, but shocked if they won. Don't think ULM can beat FSU, but if that line gets too high and FSU just expects to win....., ULL brings their best vs App St avg Cajuns could surprise as 15 pt dog. Suspect Boise was sandbagging last week, but I didn't pay attention to the game. I like Georgia.
 
Huge overreaction against Miami. They play up to competition and down to competition. I can't believe 5Dimes is giving them 10.

UCF coming off hugely emotional superbowl win.

Can't fathom OSU being favored by more than 3 vs Wiscy. Taylor + playaction should be really effective vs OSU defense. Seems trappy to me tbh
 
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If Bama gets in, does that mean three SEC teams are in?

Say Auburn beats UGA

Auburn obviously in
UGA 2 losses, both to Auburn, one of which came in the championship game
Alabama 1 loss, also to Auburn.
UGA tougher schedule than bama already. Much tougher schedule after they face Auburn again.

How could you take 1 loss Bama over 2 loss Uga in that scenario? That would be punishing UGA for making it to the title game and rewarding Bama for not making it to the title game. I know we are a left leaning country right now but come on.
 
vk said:
If Bama gets in, does that mean three SEC teams are in?

Say Auburn beats UGA

Auburn obviously in
UGA 2 losses, both to Auburn, one of which came in the championship game
Alabama 1 loss, also to Auburn.
UGA tougher schedule than bama already. Much tougher schedule after they face Auburn again.

How could you take 1 loss Bama over 2 loss Uga in that scenario? That would be punishing UGA for making it to the title game and rewarding Bama for not making it to the title game. I know we are a left leaning country right now but come on.
Click to expand...

Leave them both home and tell Alabama and Georgia to win the games that matter.
 
vk said:
If Bama gets in, does that mean three SEC teams are in?

Say Auburn beats UGA

Auburn obviously in
UGA 2 losses, both to Auburn, one of which came in the championship game
Alabama 1 loss, also to Auburn.
UGA tougher schedule than bama already. Much tougher schedule after they face Auburn again.

How could you take 1 loss Bama over 2 loss Uga in that scenario? That would be punishing UGA for making it to the title game and rewarding Bama for not making it to the title game. I know we are a left leaning country right now but come on.
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For some reason ($) they love Alabama and Ohio State and keep overlooking UTEP lol
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Huge overreaction against Miami. They play up to competition and down to competition. I can't believe 5Dimes is giving them 10.

UCF coming off hugely emotional superbowl win.

Can't fathom OSU being favored by more than 3 vs Wiscy. Taylor + playaction should be really effective vs OSU defense. Seems trappy to me tbh
Click to expand...

Looking at 9.5/10 Clem-Mia. Different teams, different years, different dynamics but Clemson was -10.5 last year vs VT in ACC Champ and I think VT needed some back door yardage and scores to lose by 7? The Clemson pedigree, recent success, coupled with a belief that Miami isn't or hasn't played Championship caliber football most of the year...I can see a case for number being what it is, although not sure I buy it.

Agree about UCF as well. Highly motivated to go undefeated no doubt, although some off-the-field distractions could enter in (Frost). Memphis' only loss is to UCF and they did not perform well. You know they want to prove that wasn't the real Memphis. Wonder if their coach is sticking around as well?

I can get the math behind the OSU number. Wisconsin -7 home vs Michigan. Let's say that HF is worth 3.5 and Wisconsin is -3.5 vs Michigan on neutral field. Ohio State -12 at Michigan, same 3.5 homefield and they are 8.5 vs them on neutral, subtract the two and you have 5! But line is up to 6.5 I see now. People (me) have been lining up to doubt Wisconsin all year long and they keep showing us why they are good at what they do. This game reminds me a little of the 2013 B1G Title game between MSU and OSU. 5 pt spread. High flying flashy OSU vs D oriented and turnover creating Sparty. Upset Urban's undefeated team and shot at a National Title. Could happen again, Ohio State is not unbeatable for sure. Is Haskins an upgrade though? Maybe some quietly hoping JT unable to go? Interesting question there.
 
I prefer to take the points on dogs, but I like:

Stanford (one of the few I would actually bet on the ML)
Wisconsin (might even take them on the ML)
Fresno (I'll take the points here)

It's interesting that 3 of the Power 5 matchups are rematches, and so is the Mountain West, the AAC, and the MAC. I don't know what the records are over the years for rematches, but my feeling is that the loser in the first match wins more than 50% of the rematches.
(edited to add the AAC as another rematch)

Maybe some of you good stats guys on the board have those numbers.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I prefer to take the points on dogs, but I like:

Stanford (one of the few I would actually bet on the ML)
Wisconsin (might even take them on the ML)
Fresno (I'll take the points here)

It's interesting that 3 of the Power 5 matchups are rematches, and so is the Mountain West, and the MAC. I don't know what the records are over the years for rematches, but my feeling is that the loser in the first match wins more than 50% of the rematches.

Maybe some of you good stats guys on the board have those numbers.
Click to expand...

It's an interesting question but it almost makes some logical sense for the team that lost the first game wins a decent percentage in the second (if that is the case, I have no idea). I say that because when you have that rematch occurring, the loser overcame that conference loss to still make their title game which probably means they were otherwise pretty good.
 
I did some research and found this stat on Wikipedia.

It indicates winners of the first game win the rematch at a 60% + rate SU.

“There appears to be a clear advantage in a bowl rematch for the team that lost in the regular season, as the regular season losers have a record of 15–7 in the bowls, and in five of the losses the margin for the team that won twice was smaller the second time. This is in contrast to rematches that occur in conference championship games where the winners of the first game have a record of 19–11.”

That is certainly valuable information, but it would be more useful if it listed the percentage ATS.

I have a hunch JRock might be able to find this on his statistical analysis.
 
I called Fresno last week and then didn't play it. They going to do it again on the road? B2b repeat game is an interesting angle.
 
I'm on Boise and think they win big before Tedford gets another cushy job...he needs to be P12 or B12 though to succeed imo
 
You could be right on Tedford, there may be something to being able to reestablish his alma mater and bringing them to a consistent championship level. It might be enough. Top dog as a MWC team isn't a bad gig, just not sure what his aspirations are or aren't. I'd like to see Fresno maintain relevance, he's probably the best one suited to do that.
 
Well let's face it, top dog in MWC is Rocky and there's no championship game that can exceed getting paid and living in San Diego
 
Does anyone else think Memphis looks virtually unstoppable on offense right now? It’s one thing for that level to have a few playmakers executing well, sprinkled with some tempo, and rolling up numbers. But their size, speed, athleticism, and the way they’re playing looks like a top tier P5 team to me.

The downside is they really won’t stop UCF either and if there is a turnover or two they may not even cover.
 
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UCF at least has a DL that should generate some pressure. QF ran around quite a bit last week in a way that RF can't.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I prefer to take the points on dogs, but I like:

Stanford (one of the few I would actually bet on the ML)
Wisconsin (might even take them on the ML)
Fresno (I'll take the points here)

It's interesting that 3 of the Power 5 matchups are rematches, and so is the Mountain West, the AAC, and the MAC. I don't know what the records are over the years for rematches, but my feeling is that the loser in the first match wins more than 50% of the rematches.
(edited to add the AAC as another rematch)

Maybe some of you good stats guys on the board have those numbers.
Click to expand...

Same-season rematch since 1980 (conference championships or bowls or whatever):

Winner of first game is 27-23 SU and 24-24-1 ATS.

Favorite in rematch is 34-13 SU and 24-22-1 ATS.
 
ksimpsc said:
I called Fresno last week and then didn't play it. They going to do it again on the road? B2b repeat game is an interesting angle.
Click to expand...

2012 PAC championship game is only example in a conference championship game. Stanford ended the season with a win over UCLA. They turned around and played again the next week. Stanford was favored by 8.5 and won by 3.
 
I remember that game very well, MW. I won two of the biggest bets I ever made.

In the last game of the season Stanford had to play at UCLA. Stanford had to win to represent the North in the title game. UCLA had the South cinched and had just played USC the previous week. Stanford was -3 in the first game and I loaded up on them. They rolled UCLA 35-17.

Then they had to play the following week and this time UCLA was fired up after getting their butts kicked and Stanford was feeling fat after winning so easily. I got 9 with UCLA and Stanford never came close to covering.

Two of the most predictable emotional situations ever in back to back weeks.

Almost the exact same situation in the Boise/Fresno game last week. Fresno had already qualified for the title game, but had all the motivation on their side. I was on Fresno all the way.

I'm trying now to figure out what the emotional state of each of them will be this week for the rematch. On the surface it would appear to be Boise, but I can't see it clearly..

Got any thoughts on that one?
 
Im sure Doak will be dead and feel like scrimmage, all I need is 7 tds vs a terrible defense with no lbs. tto45 it is. Time to show Taggert who is with it.
 
Oh boy, am I setting myself up to look foolish but just one unit. FSU is about pride. This is for tt not ats, as if anybody cares about my degen lays. Haha
 
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Johnnyonthespot said:
Oh boy, am I setting myself up to look foolish but just one unit. FSU is about pride.
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I hope you're right. I just don't see it.
Some of those kids on D are ready for the NFL (Derwin) he is NOT risking his payday (like last year). I'm still not sure how to play this. Maybe LA TT over
Noles TY could still hit.
 
I just put $10 on this parlay to win $2689.23
Memphis +225
TCU +260
Aub +104
Canes +330
Whisky +163

Ya NEVER KNOW
(My $10 Secret Santa gift to myself)
 
As for the ML dogs

81% of wagers on a shitty team on the road, I'm tempted to take Coastal
Not sure what the story is on Clemson/Miami but it's gotten high enough to take a stab on the Canes
 
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