Week 14 Lookahead Lines/Openers & Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Number to the left is the Westgate Las Vegas Lookahead Line, Number to the right is the BetOnline Opener. Will update as they come in


Tenn -5.5/ -3.5
KC -9.5/ -7.5
NE -10/ -7.5
NO -10.5/ -7.5
Buffalo -3/ Not up yet
Cleveland -1/ Carolina -2.5
Houston -3 (-120)/ -3.5 (-115)
Washington -3 (+100)/ -1
Green Bay -7.5/ -4.5
LA Chargers -15.5/ Not up yet
Denver -4.5/ -3.5
Pitt -12.5/ -13
Dallas -3.5 (+100)/ -3.5
Detroit -3 (-120)/ -2.5
LA Rams -3.5/ -4.5
Seattle -3 (+100)/ -3
 
Last edited:
Denver already up as high as 6

Early action on Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago as well.
 
Home teams have been crushing TNF, no reason to think Jacksonville is the team to stop that

Cleveland all day

Brees has had issues in the past in Tampa. Public is gonna look at this as both a NO bounce back spot and also a revenge game for week 1, but this field has made Brees look mortal. 8 is a lot. Lean Tampa

May be getting value with Indy here after their goose egg. Houston is good but the 9 game win streak is ridiculous; they aren't THIS good...I trust Reich to have his team prepared for what is 100000% a must win game. Reich is kind of the anti-O'Brien; hell take risks and gambles. BOB is crazy conservative

No feel in NYG/Washington

Chicago gonna win outright?

Matchup is terrible for Baltimore. KC has the kind of offense that can get up big and force lamar to become a thrower. I don't think hes ready to do that, especially not on the road at arrowhead. Also gives KC a week to recover from the Hunt drama. I'm either gonna lay points here or be on KC in a tease

Atl/GB is a stay away

Action network has Jets -9 @ Buffalo...that has to be a typo right?

New England lost embarssingly on the road to Miami last year and have played poorly on the road this year. Another flat spot?

Denver is gonna be the public fav of the week for sure. Not sure if I can fade them, though I do like Mullens/Pettis/Kittle/Brieda

I actually think the chargers can cover 14 against Jeff Driskel, but I may have to tease that one.

Steelers aren't going to lose to Oakland, they are also a tease possibility.

Minnesota in must win territory.

lots to dissect here; interesting card.

Leans: SD and Pittsburgh in teasers

Cle +1
TB +8
Ind +4.5
Chicago +3.5
KC -7
Mia +8
SF +5
 
D-Woww said:
Home teams have been crushing TNF, no reason to think Jacksonville is the team to stop that

Cleveland all day

Brees has had issues in the past in Tampa. Public is gonna look at this as both a NO bounce back spot and also a revenge game for week 1, but this field has made Brees look mortal. 8 is a lot. Lean Tampa

May be getting value with Indy here after their goose egg. Houston is good but the 9 game win streak is ridiculous; they aren't THIS good...I trust Reich to have his team prepared for what is 100000% a must win game. Reich is kind of the anti-O'Brien; hell take risks and gambles. BOB is crazy conservative

No feel in NYG/Washington

Chicago gonna win outright?

Matchup is terrible for Baltimore. KC has the kind of offense that can get up big and force lamar to become a thrower. I don't think hes ready to do that, especially not on the road at arrowhead. Also gives KC a week to recover from the Hunt drama. I'm either gonna lay points here or be on KC in a tease

Atl/GB is a stay away

Action network has Jets -9 @ Buffalo...that has to be a typo right?

New England lost embarssingly on the road to Miami last year and have played poorly on the road this year. Another flat spot?

Denver is gonna be the public fav of the week for sure. Not sure if I can fade them, though I do like Mullens/Pettis/Kittle/Brieda

I actually think the chargers can cover 14 against Jeff Driskel, but I may have to tease that one.

Steelers aren't going to lose to Oakland, they are also a tease possibility.

Minnesota in must win territory.

lots to dissect here; interesting card.

Leans: SD and Pittsburgh in teasers

Cle +1
TB +8
Ind +4.5
Chicago +3.5
KC -7
Mia +8
SF +5
Click to expand...

Liking Cleveland, Indy, Chicago, and KC as well.
 
Forget about this week--

Vegas is providing us an early Christmas gift--

Patriots +550 to win it all--

I see them as being an automatic AFC representative for the super bowl-- Vs Rams Saints Cowboys, Bellichek will out coach all those teams--

The reason this play is so good, is because just like illusions there appears to be talk that the AFC has some competitors???

KC--- Bellichek vs REID-- Game over right there-- Mahomes throws 3 interceptions vs Bill all day long

Pittsburgh-- Tomlin cant beat BILL_- BEN is fat and slow and out of shape

Chargers-- Not clutch-- been proven

Houston- Im big on Deseasn Watsson-- Huge fan-- But his coach Obrien will get the SABAN KIRBY SMART treatment-- Student cannot beat Teacher--

The AFC coaches are a bunch of morons- Brady who's only weakness is throwing the deep ball-- and his rating vs the BLITZ is also terrible--

So what do all these AFC genius coaches do-- They show up to meetings with their arrogance and pompous attitudes and start drawing up all these exotiz zones and defensive formations--
What happens then? Brady just continues throwing his 4-5 yard passes and dump offs to James White-- and he beats you every single time--

How about send pressure right up the middle on Brady-- Press cover their receivers and dedicate someone who can cover on James White?

The fact that Patriots run the same offense with exceptional results is an indication of the lack of intelligence from AFC defensive coordinators--

THe NFC teams can beat him in the big game, because they can pressure BRADY-- THey play aggressive defense and try to disrupt the interrior of the offensive line-

Pats +550 to win it all--

I see the AFC teams as all pretendor teams-- None of them can match Bill's game planning and the surging Pats defense which is quietly becoming one of the elite units in the league.
 
Memo to AFC coaches-- IN playoffs the Patriots will try at least 2 trick plays---- But their arrogance prevents them from preparing for this--

Also when Edelmen is in motion or in the backfield, thats a PLAY WHERE HE WILL THROW A PASS

No preparation at all-- I dont think patriots are that smart-- they are coaching vs morons-- which is obvious when a 30 year old coach is the smartest offensive mind in the league

I wonder what guys like Jeff Fisher Hue jackson do all week? Does Marvin Lewis even attend practice?
 
Balt and Hou jump out at me. Is this another gift with Denver? They just keep taking care of the bad teams on their schedule.
 
Doug Marrone is an early bird. I'm pretty sure that teams hosting his squads have never lost a game that kicked off after 3pm EST.
 
Last edited:
Also, possibly random, but in his entire career as head coach Doug Marrone has never won a road game when he had to travel outside the eastern time zone after week 1. Slow starts too as the teams went 0-9 and got outscored by a combined 44-7 in the 1Q.
 
During the last five seasons Buffalo is 14-2 at home against teams that average less than 23 points per game. They went 1-2 and allowed a total of 81 points when they didn't get a normal week to practice, but when they had a full week to prepare the Bills went 13-0 and won by an average score of 27-14.
 
Last edited:
Think about this:
A team can clinch it's division this week with a win and an 8-5 record...........and three weeks left in the season.
 
The playoffs are there for the taking this week for the Cowboys. Beat Philly and they go up 2 games plus a tiebreaker with Philly having to go to the LA Colosseum for their next game, and with Buttfumble now in charge of the Skins offense trailing by a game and a tiebreaker. 10 days off for Dallas and they may get Smith and Lee back, while Philly has the short week and Peters limped off late in the game. I could see a let down for the Dallas offense except they weren't that great against the Saints anyway so there's no place lower to go. I don't believe in really good defenses having let downs, If Wentz can shred these guys then the D isn't what I think it is. Like most Dallas games it will probably be close at the end, could be a win but no cover.
 
I see a lot of $ coming in on Balt.. Maybe they cover, idk... I'd get KC in every teaser you open. I quite frankly do not see them losing this game or looking ahead to the two tougher games on the horizon.
 
austinhous said:
Also, possibly random, but in his entire career as head coach Doug Marrone has never won a road game when he had to travel outside the eastern time zone after week 1. Slow starts too as the teams went 0-9 and got outscored by a combined 44-7 in the 1Q.
Click to expand...

Jax has ALWAYS been fade-worthy on west coast. I think he's 0-2 with Jax in that spot (Zona and 49ers last year)
 
TB is hard to forecast, but i don't think the latitude longitude combo has caused Brees problems. The must-win game logic must go, but i realize it never will. Lamar Jackson can't hit open targets, I respect the BAL defense but if they don't win the game he can't keep up
 
I just don't get the Bears love. Rams have way more quality wins and are still the class of the nfl. I think the Rams defense line wins the battle, and probably forces a couple turnovers. Gurley won't be held down for a whole game either, is Trubisky still out?
 
i hope trubisky plays to make the line shorter, i'm not a road favorite type but if there's ever a time it's LAR against a team who can't exploit their defensive problems in the secondary
 
GWarner27 said:
i hope trubisky plays to make the line shorter, i'm not a road favorite type but if there's ever a time it's LAR against a team who can't exploit their defensive problems in the secondary
Click to expand...
I’m guessing the line is already set, anticipating him to play at +3
 
GWarner27 said:
pretty big number even with him playing
Click to expand...

Line seems a bit short, even with Trubisky playing. Seems to indicate LAR being a 6 point favorite on a neutral, which again seems short. Who is the Bears best win against this season? The Seahawks back in the 2nd game of the season?
 
hard to say because that defense has been so dominant, but i don't see that happening vs LAR
 
jedi ninja said:
Line seems a bit short, even with Trubisky playing. Seems to indicate LAR being a 6 point favorite on a neutral, which again seems short. Who is the Bears best win against this season? The Seahawks back in the 2nd game of the season?
Click to expand...

Vikes?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Vikes?
Click to expand...

Sure, that would be the only other possible answer. I was going to put it in my post, but decided to just pick one game. Are the Vikings better than Seattle at this point?

But let's go with Minnesota. The Vikings are nowhere near what the Rams are this season. Neither are the Seahawks, so the point still remains...they don't have a win against a team anywhere near the caliber of the Rams. And to say that -6 on a neutral field would be the right line doesn't seem right. At all.
 
GWarner27 said:
hard to say because that defense has been so dominant, but i don't see that happening vs LAR
Click to expand...

Which defense has been so dominant? I'm confused, are you saying the Bears? It seems you are, but I'm not sure what "I don't see that happening vs LAR" means if that's who you're referring to.
 
jedi ninja said:
Which defense has been so dominant? I'm confused, are you saying the Bears? It seems you are, but I'm not sure what "I don't see that happening vs LAR" means if that's who you're referring to.
Click to expand...

yeah, i was saying the CHI defense has been dominant at times. I don't see that happening against a top-tier offense, one that I had as the best coming into the year until I saw NO and KC.

Coming into the week i circled LAR and think I made them -2. I think you're undervaluing the pointspread if you're saying 6 on a neutral is not reasonable here because it should be bigger. That's a pretty big number against a division leader with significant travel and an even bigger weather adjustment (though I don't value those as much as others)
 
  • Bears/Rams both top-5 in points scored
  • McVay undefeated laying 3+ in regular season
  • Bears cashed over in every game with a total of 44+
  • Bears cashed over vs every team that averages 350+ ypg
Just some random stuff, wondering how many points the winner of this game will score..?
 
Give me McDermott with a full week to prepare for Bowles. This will be McDermott's first time getting an opponent at his house in the second meeting of the season. They beat the Jets on the road by 31 points a month ago, and now they get to invite them to Buffalo for the rematch. I've been looking forward to this all week. Game temps will be in the 20s with clear skies in Buffalo on Sunday - much more accommodating (for this franchise) than the freakin' 86 degree heat they had to endure in Miami last week.
 
austinhous said:
Give me McDermott with a full week to prepare for Bowles. This will be McDermott's first time getting an opponent at his house in the second meeting of the season. They beat the Jets on the road by 31 points a month ago, and now they get to invite them to Buffalo for the rematch. I've been looking forward to this all week. Game temps will be in the 20s with clear skies in Buffalo on Sunday - much more accommodating (for this franchise) than the freakin' 86 degree heat they had to endure in Miami last week.
Click to expand...

Yep. The line seems suspiciously short though. Considering the beat down the Bills gave them in NJ (with Matt Barkley under center). But it's a division rival, and the line was similar in NJ, so maybe it's not really short. Could easily see a FG game, but feels like the Bills give them another beat down, even with Darnold coming back for the Jets.
 
Bill O'Brien 31-1 when leading at halftime (27-5 ATS)
Bill O'Brien 10-37 when trailing/tied at halftime

Best coach in the NFL at parlaying halftime leads into wins. I always like to look for a double result halftime+full game prop with that dude.
 
  • Teams quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins have won only five of 17 prime-time games.
  • Since Pete Carroll and John Schneider arrived in 2010, the Seahawks are 15-2 in prime time games played at CenturyLink Field, including 5-1 on Monday Night Football.
The truth about Kirk Cousins' winless career on 'Monday Night Football'
Much has been made of the Vikings' woes in prime-time television appearances. Cousins has never led a team to victory on Monday Night Football. He is 0-6 in his career as a starter on Monday night, and if you throw in Thursday games he's a combined 1-11. But it's not like Cousins has stunk up the joint in prime-time appearances. His numbers are good: 1,669 yards (278 per game) with eight touchdowns and four interceptions with a 67.4 percent completion percentage and a passer rating of 100+ in four of six MNF starts. He is winless largely because he played for average teams in Washington against some of the best teams in the NFL. The only truly bad loss was to the Cowboys in 2015. Monday night against Seahawks won't be easy for the Vikings, but Cousins might have the edge against a Seattle secondary that's allowed 315 passing yards over the last four games, including 414 yards to 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens last week.
Click to expand...
 
austinhous said:
Bill O'Brien 31-1 when leading at halftime (27-5 ATS)
Bill O'Brien 10-37 when trailing/tied at halftime

Best coach in the NFL at parlaying halftime leads into wins. I always like to look for a double result halftime+full game prop with that dude.
Click to expand...
Great research. Thx.
 
What do you think will be the reaction of the Packers team after firing McCarthy? Will they show up or are the Packers what their record says they're? I tend to assume / hope that Rodgers will have a big day against one of the worst defenses of the NFL but thought that last week against the Cardinals too. Are the Packers suddenly good without McCarthy and will Philbin made the offensive decisions or Rodgers? Still hesitating.
 
turnovers and time zones
The Steelers have committed more turnovers than the Raiders this season, with fourteen of Pittsburgh's 20 turnovers coming away from home. Steez own a -8 turnover margin on the road (30th NFL) and have committed eight turnovers in the last three games. Big Ben is 0-3 at Oakland and 2-4 overall against the Raiders. Steelers have played in the Pacific Time Zone 10 times the last 15 years with a 2-8 record straight up and against the spread. Tomlin downplayed travel and jet lag as reasons for their performance and once again continued their tradition of flying out on Saturday for a game on the west coast on Sunday. Derek Carr is 9-3 hosting teams from the eastern time zone and 9-0 when the opposing defenses have allowed less than 25 ppg on the season.. and dude hasn't thrown a pick since Week 5.

Raiders +400
Raiders o20½ -115
 
Tornado warning not far outside of Tampa, would certainly check weather if you're gonna get involved there

Too bad there isn't a game in Charlotte, love freezing rain games. Highly doubt the Pans can fly home tonight but Brightside, where better than Forest City if you gotta be stuck?
 
Rambler its probably recency bias. The whole gambling world remembers GB fucking them seven ways to Sunday last week. They seem to be overlooking that Atlanta did the same thing, albeit on a different level.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Capaholic
Week 9
Replies
9
Views
448
skanless13
skanless13
B.A.R.
Pick Club Week #6 Lines
2
Replies
57
Views
505
splinter65
splinter65
B.A.R.
Pick Club Week #7 Lines
2
Replies
61
Views
554
splinter65
splinter65
B
Week 9 picks
Replies
1
Views
67
blackcrow
B
B.A.R.
Pick Club Week #5 Lines
2
Replies
65
Views
555
texsn95
texsn95
Back
Top