Week 14 Leans, Writeups, & Plays

[E.T.G.]

Initial leans I have as of now...Writeups to follow after I narrow the list down..I would like to limit the bs plays this wk and just take the ones I am most comfortable with. Will look to have 5-6 big plays..


CM-2, Over 43 - Think this line is la little low. CMU is balanced. Also think the game can go over the posted total..
Houston -4 - Flaky team but they are capable of winning this won with their A game. So Miss got Houston once this yr already at the end of their 3game skid. It will be a lot tougher this time around.
Rutgers +8 - Give me more points, RU for BCS bid, White ankle banged up, Slaton forearm is hurt..
Wake +2.5, over 42 - This just could be Wake's yr.
NMST -11 - QB was injured in the win over Utah St so I have to look into this a little more..
TCU -14.5 , 1st Half- UNLV??? Comeon AF, you are better than that....Or maybe you are not.. Anyway, TCU has a knack for starting fast and than coasting only to blow the spread..
SJSU -4 - Fresno has blown SJSU out the last 3 yrs, Fresno is now 1-10 ATS . Home team who wants revenge...
Arky +2.5 - McFadden right, Jones left..Have to find out status of Harvin before betting this one..
Hawaii -7.5, Under 71 - Maybe after last wk the Hawaii lines will come back down to earth, exactly what we have here. I think a lot of people lost money on Hawaii and most will be hard pressed to lay a lot of points vs. major conference team. With that said, I don't think OSU wins this one in a shootout, that would mean Moore would have to be on point that day. Also think the total will get hit up during the wk but I don't think this game goes over..

 

[E.T.G.]

Southern Mississippi (8-4) @ Houston -4.5 (9-3) ***Conference USA Championship


We have a rematch here of a previous meeting where So Miss defeated Houston 31-27 at home. In that game Houston had 38 net rushing yards. This game was the third game in a 3 game losing streak that started with the 15-14 loss to Miami. During the three game losing streak Houston was out rushed by 150 (Mia), 231 (UL-LAF), 107(So Miss). Since that game, Houston has won 5 straight and has out rushed the 5 opposing teams by a combined 634yds (127yds/game). Converted WR, Aldridge has given Houston a dual threat at RB with Jackie Battle and Aldridge splitting most of the carries. Aldridge posses break away speed. So Miss this year has been out rushed 4 times, they lost 3 of those games. So Miss is on a 3 game winning streak but is just 3-3 away. Houston gets this championship game at home where they are 6-1. In their last three home games they have outscored opposing teams by an avg of 18 points (Tulsa -17, CF -20, UTEP-17). Another important factor in this game is the consistency of Kevin Kolb. Kolb is having a great yr and I think we can expect much of the same in his last home game as a Houston Cougar. Kolb has 3165yds, 68%, and 25:3 TD ratio. So Miss counters with a competent but not too powerful passing attack. When So Miss defeated Houston they had the advantage in First Downs, Rushing Yards, and Time of Possession. To win this game again they must do much of the same to try and keep the balanced Houston offense off the field. So Miss has gotten good play from their defense as of late. Over the last 3 games (Marshall, UAB, Tulane) they avg 10points, 200yds, 108 pass, and 91 rush. They will be tested this weekend by Houston for sure. Houston counters with a rush defense that has been equally impressive over the last 3 games (Memphis, SMU, Tulsa) allowing just an avg of 97yards. I am going to wait on the spread to see which direction it is heading this week. Not sure if many people trust Houston but I have to side with the Senior QB in his last home game for the conference championship. Houston must give its best effort this week and not sleepwalk into this game. They have had a problem with starting slow and having to come back from down early but there is no reason not to be motivated for this game with revenge and a championship so close. It is doubtful So Miss holds Houston to 38yds again as well..

 

[HUNT]

great writeup on houston..might have to join you. you know I'm on wake.

 

[E.T.G.]

Oregon St (8-4) @ #23 Hawaii (10-2) -7.5-----Under 73

Ok, one of the more interesting games this week. Hawaiiguy already has this game written up as well so I will just add to what has already been said.. First I will start with the OSU-Hawaii Matchup

At QB, Moore is adequate but he is not a game changer like Brennan. Moore is not asked to throw a lot simply because he does not excel at that. Moore on the yr has been up and down (2421yd, 61%, 11:6) and Brennan has been lights out (4589, 72%, 51:9).. It is important to note that Brennan is within striking distance of the Touchdown record so keep that in my mind. The OSU offense is not bad by any means, but it does not compare to Hawaii’s explosiveness. For the second week in a row we have a team who is playing their 13th game, already bowl eligible, making the long trip to the island. What separates these two games different is that Purdue had ability to strike back quickly via the air, OSU can not. Bernard will be asked to eat up a lot of time and he has not been up to the task lately. Purdue lacked success at running the clock out as well. I really think this game is a lower spread because of last weeks Purdue cover. Most people who bet lost money on Hawaii and its unlikely they will lay a ton of points on Hawaii again when they face a major conference team. With that said, OSU has lost both games when the opponent has scored more than 40 points (Cal and Boise). The key to beating Hawaii is to out pass them, I say this because I don’t mean throw for 600 on top of Brennan’s 450yds, but if you are able to contain the passing game you have a good shot. The last team to do that to Hawaii was Boise. OSU has lost ¾ games when out rushed. This brings me to my next point, Hawaii is not all pass, they will hit you with both the rush and pass. The last 3 games Hawaii Defense has avg 23pt, 341yd, 239pass, 102rush. I have read that this game could be on ESPN, if it is, I think Hawaii will try anything to embarrass OSU if possible. OSU is coming off a big win over Oregon in the Civil War but as Hawaiiguy mentions, there are about 13 Hawaii players on the OSU roster.

The bottom line, OSU won’t try to get into a shootout with Hawaii. There will be a healthy dose of Bernard but when that begins to fail, Moore will be called on to lead the troops. Eventually Hawaii attack breaks loose and Hawaii wins something like 45-20 and Brennan does break the TD record..

Now onto the under….

Hawaii Under 73 (Let it stop rising)
Over is 21-5-1 in HAW last 27 home games. Scary right..

The line opened at 71, its already 73. The over hit the last 9 Hawaii games so if anything, people still have confidence that Hawaii scores a lot of points but maybe their defense isnt as strong. I think this line rises as we get closer to game time..

Now say that on Saturday the Over/Under is 75, which is reasonable, could be higher, I don't think its lower than that..

Hawaii total scores the last 6 weeks have been 77, 71, 78, 73, 78, 79.

Out of the 6 games, 3 of those teams Hawaii crushed were by 38 (LaTech), 53 (Ut St), 58 (Idaho). Oregon St is better than all of these teams by far..

Oregon St will not approach this game the same way Purdue did. Purdue had no problem getting into a pissing contest with Hawaii, however I think Oregon St tries to grind time out. Matt Moore is simply not capable nor is it in his nature to be the QB for a team that has to throw up a monster amount of points via the air game..If they do attempt to go to the air more than normal expect to see Hawaii defenders become OSU leading receivers.

That means that there are two ways I see this game going.. A Hawaii Blowout much like that Boist St loss OSU suffered early (42-14), or OSU grinds time off the clock and keeps it close (35-27) type of game.. In neither of these situations do I expect the over to hit. I think only two teams have put up over 40 on OSU: Cal (41) and Boise (42), both of which were blowouts under the suggested total of 75..

I could be totally wrong on this, I will look at it closer to gametime but taking the Over simply because its Hawaii is going to burn you sooner or later and I think this could be the week.

Under is 8-3 in OREST last 11 games overall.

Also as it is mentioned above, OSU won their civil war last week, playing their 13th game of the season, away on the island, they could be content... Who knows..

 

[E.T.G.]

Fresno St (4-7) @ SJST (7-4) -4.5


Good old Fresno has won their last 3 games but they are still 1-10 ATS on the yr and 0-8 ATS vs. a winning team. SJST rebounded from two losses last week with a win over Idaho 28-13. Fresno had all it could handle in a game with La Tech. Fresno St has won the last 10 games in the series and the last 3 were blowouts (45-7, 62-28, 41-7). Fresno has found their recent success with their run game but road troubles and a strong SJST at home (4-1 ATS) will be too much for this Fresno team to over come. This yr is as good as any for SJST to thank Fresno for the past 10 yrs. The two teams have played 6 common opponents and both teams, surprisingly, were in a game with Utah St. Tafralis has been constant all yr for SJST while Fresno has had their share of problems at QB. I think this spread drops as we get later into the week and SJST gets their revenge at home this week..

 

[E.T.G.]

Ohio (9-3) vs CM (8-4) -2.5 *** MAC Championship

I know many are happy that the MAC is finally over for the yr. What a strange conference.. Anyway here we are with the two best teams facing off Thursday night. Both have been great ATS for gamblers. The key to beating Ohio is to stop their rushing game..CM has let that part of the offense slip a little bit over the last few weeks but QB Lefevour has been consistent (2555yd, 63%, 22:9). Ohio on the other hand does not throw the ball into the air much, averaging just 75yds passing over their last 3 games. They rely heavily on the rush at over 260yds a game in their last 3. I think CM is the better team but the MAC is tricky as fuck. Ohio is a well coached team that plays good defense (13pt, 250yd, 171pass, 81rush in last 3 games). The No. Illinois game could have been a wake up call for CM as they had no trouble rebounding vs. Buffalo, but who hasn’t? I had considered the CM money line but -161 is too much for me. If it drops to -130 or so I will make a play on that. Overall MAC games have not been that kind to me and the degenerate in me considers this game just for some action on Thursday night.

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys I am starting to see which Houston team will play this weekend.. Taken from covers editorial....



Houston (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 O/U)
Senior quarterback Kevin Kolb separated himself from the rest of the C-USA pack with an outstanding season. In 2005, Kolb’s 19 touchdown passes were dampened by his 15 interceptions. This year he threw 25 touchdowns with only three interceptions.
Credit must be given, however, to the improved Houston running game, which paced the conference with 197.8 rushing yards in C-USA games led by thunder-and-lightning duo Jackie Battle and Anthony Aldridge. Going one better than their Friday night opponents, Houston enters with five straight games with at least 200 rushing yards.
Telling quote: “We`re going to run the table on our side, we`ll meet them in the conference championship [game], we`ll have some neutral refs, and we`ll see what happens.” Kolb to the Jackson Clarion-Ledger after Houston’s loss at Southern Miss, which the quarterback attributed to some questionable calls. Conclusion: Is Kolb clairvoyant? Likely not, but he is the quarterback of an excellent football team that helped him fulfill his prophesy so far. Home-field advantage will mean something for the Cougars, as tickets under the Friday night lights have gone fast.


This could be a pissed off Houston team coming out at home which puts me at ease if my money is on them..

 

[larice]

ETG: Very nice.

I'm with you on:

C. Mich
New Mex State
San Jose
Hawaii

Of those, I have Hawaii very strong. Very.

I don't see your Rutgers side as my numbers are pretty hard on WV, but that is not taking into account the injuries.

I'll be against you on TCU. For what its worth, my numbers show an Air Force cover. What am I missing here?

I don't cap totals, but I'll be tailing you on that under. You make as strong of a case as could be made for going 'under' on the island.

 

[E.T.G.]

ETG: Very nice.

I'm with you on:

C. Mich
New Mex State
San Jose
Hawaii

Of those, I have Hawaii very strong. Very.

I don't see your Rutgers side as my numbers are pretty hard on WV, but that is not taking into account the injuries.

I'll be against you on TCU. For what its worth, my numbers show an Air Force cover. What am I missing here?

I don't cap totals, but I'll be tailing you on that under. You make as strong of a case as could be made for going 'under' on the island.

Thanks, glad to see you on the same side.

I like that you have Hawaii very strong as well..
I like Rutgers if White and Slaton are banged up. If they are good to go then when was the last time WVU lost back to back home games? I have to get enough points with RU too..
AF has lost three straight, one just to UNLV. I am considering a TCU first half play where they have been particularly strong all yr if the number is low enough
What do your numbers show on Houston

 

[larice]

Houston by 10 to 14. 24-10, 27-14. I also like that there is a little revenge here...Houston is the better team....last time, they were reeling from the Miami letdown.

West Virginia by 14-17, but no injuries in those numbers.

I don't have Air Force strong and my numbers are season-long, not heavily weighted to the last 3 games. That said, I have a TCU win by 10-14. Also, in that UNLV-AF game last week, my numbers had UNLV very strong ($$) so I don't see that as an upset (at least as far as my power numbers go.. they were right on then).

One thought on your under. Hawaii has no ball control...they control it by putting it in the endzone. Not sure that the defense is that bad but that they just have to go back on the field regularly. Maybe most teams get a little more offensive production than normal due to more time on the field? Haven't looked at those numbers..just a guess. I'll still bet it though.

 

[E.T.G.]

RU +9.5 -103 on pinny right now.. hmmm is this line going to keep climbing?

 

[Aztec4Life]

Good looking leans, everything. As you're already know, I agree with you on Wake, and vanzack convinced me on Houston.

GL this week. :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Just to narrow this down a little bit..Little worried about DR. Bob fuking these lines up tomorrow...

Houston -4.5 (-101) ---I think some more people might get on So Miss but I got them friday night...I like this team as a regular play not an action bet. Revenge, Kevin Kolb, home game, I will chance it..

Rutgers +10(-102)This line climbed fast and it looks as if it still have some climb in it.. White's ankle will slow him down vs a fast defense.. If RU can force the pass I like their chances to keep it close.. I will let this line run its course but like it +10 or more...Night game in WVU, it will be crazy!

Hawaii -7.5 (+101) (U 70) - Looks like there is some OSU action coming in so will see if I can get -7....Wow did I miss the boat on the under...I loved that play but I misread the line thought for sure it would not drop yet.. Who the hell hammered my line!!!

SJST -4 (-107) - No change is going to happen here, will play it when it gets closer to the weekend..

I am looking at a UF moneyline, I think I have changed my mind on that game. Still looking at Wake and NMST who is favorites two weeks in a row, I guess someone in that league has to be the best of the worst teams.. Don't like TCU anymore, and think I might stay away from the MAC this week. I can't pick a team there and I'm not looking to get killed with actions plays this wk.

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys, stayed away tonight because I couldn't make up my mind but damn it sucks watching that game without money on it!...

Punched ticket so far for:

Houston -4 --- 4 Units

More to come tomorrow

 

[E.T.G.]

SJST -4 --- 3 Units

Revenge!Revenge!Revenge!Revenge!Revenge!Revenge!Revenge!

 

[E.T.G.]

Colorodo St -1 --- 3 Units

See the thread about the game.. This was not one of my initial leans but I think this line is off. I think Colo St wins this game and as long as that happens I will push at worse...

 

[BigRaktor]

Great info...had houston at -4.5...just hit it again 3x at -6

 

[E.T.G.]

Great info...had houston at -4.5...just hit it again 3x at -6

:cheers: tonight...




Depending on how Houston does tonight.... I am thinking about adding a few of these..

NMST -7 1st half --- At home with that gun slinger back there against one of the worst pass defenses in the country, they will score 28+ I am just trying to avoid a 2nd half meltdown laying -13 over the course of the game..
FLA -130 ML ---- Well I changed my mind in this game. UF doesn't win pretty but they do win. UF also has a QB, Arky don't. Harvin is going to play... I am not taking the points because UF is not capable of XP'sor FG's..
TCU 10 1st half
RU +10.5
Hawaii -8, Under 70 - Right now I haven't play this, I would like the Under to rise back to 73 again... Hawaii -8 I want to play, something is holding me back

 

[E.T.G.]

Houston -4 --- 4 Units :wacka wacka:

1-0 +4 Units

Nice start to the week. Really felt good about this play the whole week although I almost broke a few things at the end of half..

Now the announcers kept saying Houston will play So Carolina in the Liberty Bowl and I just hope that is not true. IMO, SC has nothing to gain and everything to lose playing Houston. I would much rather draw BC or Maryland and beat another ACC school..

Plays for tomorrow so far..

SJST -4 --- 3 Units
Colo St -1 --- 3 Units

 

[E.T.G.]

NMST -7 1st Half --- 4 Units -- This team was rolling last week, 28 points in the first quater then Holbrook got hurt and the offense slid a little, well he is back and that means his 4100+ yds 70 % completion are going to tear this pass defense up.. NMST @ home where they look to finish on a strong note. Record wise this is a bad team however, they have been competitive in the WAC and can score on anyone as previously shown..

 

[larice]

Co. State has become a play for me.

 

[E.T.G.]

This is almost the final card for today with a Hawaii play pending. If I get my ass kicked today I will cut my losses if not I will play the degenerate special. I am pretty pissed off I missed UNDER 73 in that game. I felt really good about that play but 70 worries me a bit.I am checking out the 35.5 half time under.. An OSU slow start secures that!

No top play this week, if there was gonna be one it was Houston, that was the game I felt most comfortable about, past experiences with Houston this yr just could not let me trust them enough...The only game that I didn't have on my initial leans was CSU, so that makes me happy, it has been a problem of mine to deviate from the list during the week.. The CSU game worries me a little bit, this is really a battle of shit...

Its a chalky wkend but I def. limited the chalk.. Laying -7 with a home NMST team is the most...

The WVU/RU game is wierd to me, spread climbed with word that White wasn't healthy. RU is a decent team but WVU is going to be a rowdy place this week.

TCU - I was gonna fade AF and take TCU 1st half -10 where they have been strong all yr but chickened out..

Saturday Card:
NMST -7 first half ---4 Units
SJST -4 --- 3 Units
CSU -1 --- 3 Units
UF -150 ML --- 450 to win 300 - A little higher than I wanted to pay, liked when it was -130 but I didn't pull the trigger..I am not taking any chances with the lack of ability UF has for kicking XP's and FG's...You might see them going for it on 4th down when most teams would be taking 3 points and I am not willing to risk losing those precious points.. I don't know the final score here, no gut feeling except that I feel that UF wins. You can't stop McFadden/Jones but you can force Dick to try and beat you like LSU did last week.

 

[E.T.G.]

Co. State has become a play for me.

Nice, I like to be on the same side as you...

What are your plays for the day?

 

[E.T.G.]

Houston -4 --- 4 Units:wacka wacka:
NMST -7 first half ---4 Units (PUSSSH)
SJST -4 --- 3 Units:wacka wacka:
CSU -1 --- 3 Units:hairout: The one game not on my original list of plays!!
UF -150 ML --- 450 to win 300 :wacka wacka:

I can't believe the regular season is over already...

Ended the yr 3-1-1 +6.7 Units for the week bringing my first season of capping to 63-49-3 on the yr, somewhere around 56%...I picked shit up the last two weeks taking the book for around 15 Units...I ended the year 4-1 on Top Plays as well.. It has been a lot of fun here, I found this site by accident on a google search for handicapping ncaa and I am glad I have stuck around..

For next yr I hope to provide insight into South Carolina games like Hawaiiguy has done for us on the bows. I would like to stick to my list of leans and not make any bonehead picks like taking CSU this week.. I would like to improve my winning percentage and limit those stupid bets during the week where I have really hammered myself and I think I will focus on the WAC conference where I had my most success this season...

It has been great guys, Now give me a bowl game!