TNF: Titans
Jacksonville will play with backup quarterback Cody Kessler, an o-line with an injured left tackle, left guard, and center, and a receiving crew that leads the league in drops. Kessler lacks the mobility of former starter Blake Bortles to avoid an opposing pass rush. Running back Leonard Fournette does return from suspension to face Tennessee for the first time this year. In two games against them last year, he averaged 3.6 YPC in a 15-10 loss and 2.9 YPC in a 37-16 loss. The Titans' front seven is healthy and will be ready for him. Tennessee matches up well against Kessler because its statistical strength as a pass defense is in limiting the short passing game. Kessler is a prototypical game manager who doesn’t push the ball downfield and he’ll struggle against tight coverage.
Jacksonville does have a good defense, but Tennessee’s offense has the edge with the mobility of its quarterback. Jacksonville allowed Dak to run for 82 yards, Josh Allen to run for 99, and so on. Mariota was injury-ridden in Tennessee’s 9-6 win in Jacksonville, but still ran for 51.
Tennessee has covered three in a row against Jax.
SNF: Rams
The Bears are relatively dependent on the run, ranking seventh in run play percentage. But they don’t run well, ranking 28th in YPC, and they therefore won’t be able to exploit the weakness of the Rams’ defense, which is the run game.
Chicago's leading running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard average only 3.4 and 4.3 YPC, respectively. Running back Tarik Cohen is a sensational talent, but his strength is in the passing game. He leads Chicago in receiving yards and receptions. Chicago matches up poorly against L.A., which ranks second in pass defense against opposing running backs and will limit Chicago’s strength on offense.
Chicago’s defense looks great statistically, but it has failed against its toughest tests. Chicago faced two offenses that rank top 10 in offense DVOA. Green Bay scored 21 4th-quarter points with a hobbling Aaron Rodgers. New England scored 38 points in a cover. The Rams will be Chicago’s toughest test, ranking second in offense DVOA. They’ve scored 30+ points in four straight games thanks to its balance between strong passing and rushing attacks. Chicago won’t keep up. Its quarterback Mitch Trubisky has missed his last two games and is listed as ‚questionable.'
TITANS: Jaguars will struggle to score with backup quarterback, receivers that lead NFL in drops, running back with bad history against the Titans, and injury-ridden offensive line. Titans 3-0 ATS L3 vs Jax.
BILLS: Bills have highest run play frequency and should thrive against Jets who rank 18th in opp. YPC. Bills D ranks sixth in INT’s and will feast on INT-prone Darnold, who may return after month absence.
GIANTS: Wash is slipping, lost second QB for rest of season. G-men have figured out how to score, covered three in a row. Giants are 5-1 ATS away. Skins allow 4.7 YPC at home, so big game from Saquon.
BROWNS: Panthers still haven’t figured out how to win or cover on the road. They’re 1-5 ATS away, 0-3 ATS as road favorites, and are 0-4 L$ ATS overall. They allow a 116 opposing passer rating away.
PACKERS: Packers just fired head coach. Teams tend to play better in this spot. Atlanta is a bad road team, 1-4 ATS away, will be uncomfortable outside of dome. Rodgers will destroy their low-ranked pass D.
RAVENS: Chiefs haven’t faced a pass defense this tough. Ravens’ secondary is stacked with talent and ranks second in opposing passer rating. Their D has helped them cover three straight as underdogs.
DOLPHINS: Brady-led Patriots have bad history in Miami, where Dolphins have covered four of last five in the series. Fins allow 74 opposing passer rating at home. Miami is much healthier in this rematch.
BUCCANEERS: Brees-led Saints tend to struggle in Tampa Bay. Bucs are 4-1 L5 ATS at home in the series. Bucs-led Winston are 3-0 SU at home, Winston has 4:0 touchdown-to-int ratio in last two home games.
COLTS: Colts laid rare egg to third-ranked pass D, were possibly looking ahead to this game. Houston ranks 18th in opp. passing yards and will struggle to pressure Luck. Indy 4-0-1 L5 ATS in Houston.
BENGALS: Chargers in let-down spot after comeback win on primetime TV against Steelers, may also be looking ahead to next game against Chiefs. Bengals are healthier on D, Driskel will improve with experience.
49ERS: Denver is run-first, but 49ers have good run D especially at home where they limited Gurley and Saquon. Keenum won’t do enough to cover. For SF, Mullens will thrive vs injured Denver secondary.
EAGLES: Huge let-down spot for Dallas after „super bowl“ win against Saints. After first half against Giants two weeks ago, Eagles defense has looked transformed. Dallas pass D will be vulnerable to Wentz.
RAIDERS: Steelers in tough spot psychologically after deflating loss to Chargers and face Pats after this. Raiders are still losing games, but have at least looked competitive and are 6-1 ATS L7 vs Pitt.
CARDINALS: Detroit not worth chalk. Lions struggle to run without healthy Kerryon, averaging four YPC in last three games. Stafford struggling without healthy receivers. Zona has covered L5 home games in series.
RAMS: Bears’ defense will be overpowered by Rams’ elite passing offense. Chicago’s best weapon on offense is Tarik Cohen catching passes, but Rams’ pass defense ranks second against opposing running backs.
VIKINGS: Defense travels. Seattle is run-dependent, ranking second in run play percentage. But Vikings own fifth-best run defense. Minnesota has covered its last four after not covering the game before.
Jacksonville will play with backup quarterback Cody Kessler, an o-line with an injured left tackle, left guard, and center, and a receiving crew that leads the league in drops. Kessler lacks the mobility of former starter Blake Bortles to avoid an opposing pass rush. Running back Leonard Fournette does return from suspension to face Tennessee for the first time this year. In two games against them last year, he averaged 3.6 YPC in a 15-10 loss and 2.9 YPC in a 37-16 loss. The Titans' front seven is healthy and will be ready for him. Tennessee matches up well against Kessler because its statistical strength as a pass defense is in limiting the short passing game. Kessler is a prototypical game manager who doesn’t push the ball downfield and he’ll struggle against tight coverage.
Jacksonville does have a good defense, but Tennessee’s offense has the edge with the mobility of its quarterback. Jacksonville allowed Dak to run for 82 yards, Josh Allen to run for 99, and so on. Mariota was injury-ridden in Tennessee’s 9-6 win in Jacksonville, but still ran for 51.
Tennessee has covered three in a row against Jax.
SNF: Rams
The Bears are relatively dependent on the run, ranking seventh in run play percentage. But they don’t run well, ranking 28th in YPC, and they therefore won’t be able to exploit the weakness of the Rams’ defense, which is the run game.
Chicago's leading running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard average only 3.4 and 4.3 YPC, respectively. Running back Tarik Cohen is a sensational talent, but his strength is in the passing game. He leads Chicago in receiving yards and receptions. Chicago matches up poorly against L.A., which ranks second in pass defense against opposing running backs and will limit Chicago’s strength on offense.
Chicago’s defense looks great statistically, but it has failed against its toughest tests. Chicago faced two offenses that rank top 10 in offense DVOA. Green Bay scored 21 4th-quarter points with a hobbling Aaron Rodgers. New England scored 38 points in a cover. The Rams will be Chicago’s toughest test, ranking second in offense DVOA. They’ve scored 30+ points in four straight games thanks to its balance between strong passing and rushing attacks. Chicago won’t keep up. Its quarterback Mitch Trubisky has missed his last two games and is listed as ‚questionable.'
TITANS: Jaguars will struggle to score with backup quarterback, receivers that lead NFL in drops, running back with bad history against the Titans, and injury-ridden offensive line. Titans 3-0 ATS L3 vs Jax.
BILLS: Bills have highest run play frequency and should thrive against Jets who rank 18th in opp. YPC. Bills D ranks sixth in INT’s and will feast on INT-prone Darnold, who may return after month absence.
GIANTS: Wash is slipping, lost second QB for rest of season. G-men have figured out how to score, covered three in a row. Giants are 5-1 ATS away. Skins allow 4.7 YPC at home, so big game from Saquon.
BROWNS: Panthers still haven’t figured out how to win or cover on the road. They’re 1-5 ATS away, 0-3 ATS as road favorites, and are 0-4 L$ ATS overall. They allow a 116 opposing passer rating away.
PACKERS: Packers just fired head coach. Teams tend to play better in this spot. Atlanta is a bad road team, 1-4 ATS away, will be uncomfortable outside of dome. Rodgers will destroy their low-ranked pass D.
RAVENS: Chiefs haven’t faced a pass defense this tough. Ravens’ secondary is stacked with talent and ranks second in opposing passer rating. Their D has helped them cover three straight as underdogs.
DOLPHINS: Brady-led Patriots have bad history in Miami, where Dolphins have covered four of last five in the series. Fins allow 74 opposing passer rating at home. Miami is much healthier in this rematch.
BUCCANEERS: Brees-led Saints tend to struggle in Tampa Bay. Bucs are 4-1 L5 ATS at home in the series. Bucs-led Winston are 3-0 SU at home, Winston has 4:0 touchdown-to-int ratio in last two home games.
COLTS: Colts laid rare egg to third-ranked pass D, were possibly looking ahead to this game. Houston ranks 18th in opp. passing yards and will struggle to pressure Luck. Indy 4-0-1 L5 ATS in Houston.
BENGALS: Chargers in let-down spot after comeback win on primetime TV against Steelers, may also be looking ahead to next game against Chiefs. Bengals are healthier on D, Driskel will improve with experience.
49ERS: Denver is run-first, but 49ers have good run D especially at home where they limited Gurley and Saquon. Keenum won’t do enough to cover. For SF, Mullens will thrive vs injured Denver secondary.
EAGLES: Huge let-down spot for Dallas after „super bowl“ win against Saints. After first half against Giants two weeks ago, Eagles defense has looked transformed. Dallas pass D will be vulnerable to Wentz.
RAIDERS: Steelers in tough spot psychologically after deflating loss to Chargers and face Pats after this. Raiders are still losing games, but have at least looked competitive and are 6-1 ATS L7 vs Pitt.
CARDINALS: Detroit not worth chalk. Lions struggle to run without healthy Kerryon, averaging four YPC in last three games. Stafford struggling without healthy receivers. Zona has covered L5 home games in series.
RAMS: Bears’ defense will be overpowered by Rams’ elite passing offense. Chicago’s best weapon on offense is Tarik Cohen catching passes, but Rams’ pass defense ranks second against opposing running backs.
VIKINGS: Defense travels. Seattle is run-dependent, ranking second in run play percentage. But Vikings own fifth-best run defense. Minnesota has covered its last four after not covering the game before.
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