bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
SEASON 31-36-1
Last Week 5-6
Parlays 0-1
Props 0-1
Let me start with a paraphrase from my last week's pick of the Titans:
"The Texans won't throw successfully on the Titans." :Mean8:
Fitzpatrick threw for six touchdowns, QB Rating of 147.5 and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
With that in mind here are my 'picks for the week' and they will be followed with comments & a narrative/discussion below:
BEARS+4 :hang:
COLTS -3.5 :hang:
BROWNS TT OVER 23:bluehead:
BUCS +10 :hang:
RAIDERS +8 :bluehead:
SEAHAWKS +1.5 :bluehead:
UNDER 21.5 RAVENS/FINS 2H :hang:
SF 9ers TT UNDER 24.5 :bluehead:
(LISTED A SMALL 5 TEAM PARLAY BELOW IN A POST #7) :bluehead: ( this was very nice)
UNDER 27 1H PATS/CHARGERS PUSH
Leans: Sgawks +1.5 and Steelers +3.5 ( my leans have been better than my wagers all year)
I have been at CTG for 4 years - this is my 3rd year posting. 1st year was very good and last 2 have been the same relatively bad year. Have not stopped NFL posting because:
(1) Its kinda fun
(2) Helps focus me
(3) "Meet" a few more people 'round in the forum
(4) I get valuable comments/info here sometimes
(5) Not a quitter ( that being said, may quit after this season so maybe I am a quitter)
I thought I would breifly summarize how I make my selections and make some observations about what I see in the valuable posters @ CTG (not going to worry about grammar, punctuation etc...I am doing this on the fly)
First, I write down what I believe the line will be in every game before they come out and then I check that week's "Opening Lines." Usually do this at 2 places, Odds Shark & Sportsinsights. Now days I am usually pretty damn close to what the Opening Lines are, just as an example was dead on both line and total for 3 games this week and most of the rest were very close. But, if I am "off", (totals I consider 3 points and game 2 points) I look at it as an opportunity or I need to stay away b/c I am missing something. The best example off top of head was KC v Colts playoff game last year. I do not remember the details ( sure you can look it up) but "my line" was vastly different than opening line and after I looked up injuries/check news I bet the one side where I thought the line was wrong (cannot remember which) and line eventually moved rather dramatically in opposite direction and I bet other side and hit huge "middle." This does not happen often but it was my "lining my own game" that helped with that result. The game this year that it helped me (and i dont think I posted it b/c was very busy) was Bears v GBay about 4-5 weeks ago. The reason I remember that is b/c not happened much this year.
Does not end there...check injuries and any 'news' ( injuries many times turn out not to be as big a deal as 1st think...who is it? what position? who is replacement? etc...). Now, while I don't let it completely guide my thinking the "news" can keep me off a game if I think it might have an impact which I do not feel comfortable about or it may make me lean one side or other (not saying I am right, but the 'controversy' in Cleveland this week about the starting QB makes me lean off of Browns); I do not see any 'positive' coming from a qb issue this late in season when Browns are having a good year but just had a bad loss and are in a tight division race, which they not accustomed to).
I check the teams' schedule re next opponent, division rival, sandwich game, record, travel etc... ( don't have stats precisely but that West to East morning game is a real effect, or has been). I check their ATS record on road, home, division and recent. The schedule, travel and ATS records were some of the reasons I selected Colts over Browns. Looking at Colts, they have beaten the teams that they should have beaten and when they win the game they have covered. Colts coming off three games at home, so travel etc...not an issue imo and the Browns are a team they should beat. Plus, w/o going back and verifying again, the Browns have been very poorly against AFC South this year (lost to Jags & Texans and barely got by Titans I think). I added this to the QB controversy and the fact Browns appear to be digressing while Colts on up-tick, good ATS for Colts victories and we also have the qb controversy and thus I say go with the Colts. Colts should be motivated b/c they trying to get best seeding they can and last 4 games (again not going back to look) will be @Browns, Texans, @Cowboys & @Titans.....thus, the 11-5 or 12-4 record going to be helped by a victory over reeling Browns in 1st game after good home-stand when you end your season on the road. ***I did note that Browns have not lost 2 games in a row all season*** which gave me pause.
I also then check "the public." As in any factor I do not let this guide me, but i do give it consideration. Best recent example was Turkey Day UNDER on Eagles/Boys. I had "my line" under the 56(?). I felt pretty good all things else considered and when I checked the public it was something like 71% to the OVER. That cinched it for me and went UNDER and did win.
I also keep in the back of my mind the "home dog rule".....I do let that factor in my analysis if everything else lines up. Most recent example was the Bucs last Sunday. I think I posted it as a "lean", but right before game I went with my gut and took the Bucs and the points 1H and game....winner. Well, the selection of Raiders +8 almost feels like a sucker bet to me, but it is one of my picks and the "home dog rule". Raiders humiliated last week I know, but a "bay area grudge match", a decent covering Raider team, off a bad loss playing against an "iffy/unimpressive" SFran team, who as I recall does not cover big lines that well, ...and its Raiders for me. Also, I think something like 62% of the public on SF when I last looked, so another small factor in our favor.
Then after doing my line, reading news/injuries, checking the schedule, travel, situation, and the public I do a quick check of the weather.....main thing I am looking for is wind and/or heavy blowing precipitation or inhumane cold/heat. Reminder, there was a game last season in Philly where field was under like a foot of snow...game flew over the number via punt returns etc...don't remember all the details.
I also rely on what I see. That was a BIG factor in my Green Bay selection over the Bears earlier in the year....but sadly it was also a very significant factor in my Titan selection last week...we know how that worked out
I also check out this cite...religously. I like to read what people think and why...I factor their comments in my analysis. I think earlier this year, I said in one post that when Jager Bomb appears, go with him; that has been a fairly good rule over the years (he missed a big one recently as I recall).
I'm sure I left out something(s)
*** guys, I left out most important thing for you to know....I do this for pure ass fun & relaxation and not anything else. Not trying to be reckless or careless but I am trying to relax/enjoy so there is that aspect. look elsewhere for a pro***
Guys, I did this on the quick...not spell checking etc...and hope its worth a minor glance.
WARNING: RELYING ON ANYTHING CONTAINED HEREIN IS GROSS NEGLIGENCE :rollercoast:
Last Week 5-6
Parlays 0-1
Props 0-1
Let me start with a paraphrase from my last week's pick of the Titans:
"The Texans won't throw successfully on the Titans." :Mean8:
Fitzpatrick threw for six touchdowns, QB Rating of 147.5 and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
With that in mind here are my 'picks for the week' and they will be followed with comments & a narrative/discussion below:
BEARS+4 :hang:
COLTS -3.5 :hang:
BROWNS TT OVER 23:bluehead:
BUCS +10 :hang:
RAIDERS +8 :bluehead:
SEAHAWKS +1.5 :bluehead:
UNDER 21.5 RAVENS/FINS 2H :hang:
SF 9ers TT UNDER 24.5 :bluehead:
(LISTED A SMALL 5 TEAM PARLAY BELOW IN A POST #7) :bluehead: ( this was very nice)
UNDER 27 1H PATS/CHARGERS PUSH
Leans: Sgawks +1.5 and Steelers +3.5 ( my leans have been better than my wagers all year)
I have been at CTG for 4 years - this is my 3rd year posting. 1st year was very good and last 2 have been the same relatively bad year. Have not stopped NFL posting because:
(1) Its kinda fun
(2) Helps focus me
(3) "Meet" a few more people 'round in the forum
(4) I get valuable comments/info here sometimes
(5) Not a quitter ( that being said, may quit after this season so maybe I am a quitter)
I thought I would breifly summarize how I make my selections and make some observations about what I see in the valuable posters @ CTG (not going to worry about grammar, punctuation etc...I am doing this on the fly)
First, I write down what I believe the line will be in every game before they come out and then I check that week's "Opening Lines." Usually do this at 2 places, Odds Shark & Sportsinsights. Now days I am usually pretty damn close to what the Opening Lines are, just as an example was dead on both line and total for 3 games this week and most of the rest were very close. But, if I am "off", (totals I consider 3 points and game 2 points) I look at it as an opportunity or I need to stay away b/c I am missing something. The best example off top of head was KC v Colts playoff game last year. I do not remember the details ( sure you can look it up) but "my line" was vastly different than opening line and after I looked up injuries/check news I bet the one side where I thought the line was wrong (cannot remember which) and line eventually moved rather dramatically in opposite direction and I bet other side and hit huge "middle." This does not happen often but it was my "lining my own game" that helped with that result. The game this year that it helped me (and i dont think I posted it b/c was very busy) was Bears v GBay about 4-5 weeks ago. The reason I remember that is b/c not happened much this year.
Does not end there...check injuries and any 'news' ( injuries many times turn out not to be as big a deal as 1st think...who is it? what position? who is replacement? etc...). Now, while I don't let it completely guide my thinking the "news" can keep me off a game if I think it might have an impact which I do not feel comfortable about or it may make me lean one side or other (not saying I am right, but the 'controversy' in Cleveland this week about the starting QB makes me lean off of Browns); I do not see any 'positive' coming from a qb issue this late in season when Browns are having a good year but just had a bad loss and are in a tight division race, which they not accustomed to).
I check the teams' schedule re next opponent, division rival, sandwich game, record, travel etc... ( don't have stats precisely but that West to East morning game is a real effect, or has been). I check their ATS record on road, home, division and recent. The schedule, travel and ATS records were some of the reasons I selected Colts over Browns. Looking at Colts, they have beaten the teams that they should have beaten and when they win the game they have covered. Colts coming off three games at home, so travel etc...not an issue imo and the Browns are a team they should beat. Plus, w/o going back and verifying again, the Browns have been very poorly against AFC South this year (lost to Jags & Texans and barely got by Titans I think). I added this to the QB controversy and the fact Browns appear to be digressing while Colts on up-tick, good ATS for Colts victories and we also have the qb controversy and thus I say go with the Colts. Colts should be motivated b/c they trying to get best seeding they can and last 4 games (again not going back to look) will be @Browns, Texans, @Cowboys & @Titans.....thus, the 11-5 or 12-4 record going to be helped by a victory over reeling Browns in 1st game after good home-stand when you end your season on the road. ***I did note that Browns have not lost 2 games in a row all season*** which gave me pause.
I also then check "the public." As in any factor I do not let this guide me, but i do give it consideration. Best recent example was Turkey Day UNDER on Eagles/Boys. I had "my line" under the 56(?). I felt pretty good all things else considered and when I checked the public it was something like 71% to the OVER. That cinched it for me and went UNDER and did win.
I also keep in the back of my mind the "home dog rule".....I do let that factor in my analysis if everything else lines up. Most recent example was the Bucs last Sunday. I think I posted it as a "lean", but right before game I went with my gut and took the Bucs and the points 1H and game....winner. Well, the selection of Raiders +8 almost feels like a sucker bet to me, but it is one of my picks and the "home dog rule". Raiders humiliated last week I know, but a "bay area grudge match", a decent covering Raider team, off a bad loss playing against an "iffy/unimpressive" SFran team, who as I recall does not cover big lines that well, ...and its Raiders for me. Also, I think something like 62% of the public on SF when I last looked, so another small factor in our favor.
Then after doing my line, reading news/injuries, checking the schedule, travel, situation, and the public I do a quick check of the weather.....main thing I am looking for is wind and/or heavy blowing precipitation or inhumane cold/heat. Reminder, there was a game last season in Philly where field was under like a foot of snow...game flew over the number via punt returns etc...don't remember all the details.
I also rely on what I see. That was a BIG factor in my Green Bay selection over the Bears earlier in the year....but sadly it was also a very significant factor in my Titan selection last week...we know how that worked out
I also check out this cite...religously. I like to read what people think and why...I factor their comments in my analysis. I think earlier this year, I said in one post that when Jager Bomb appears, go with him; that has been a fairly good rule over the years (he missed a big one recently as I recall).
I'm sure I left out something(s)
*** guys, I left out most important thing for you to know....I do this for pure ass fun & relaxation and not anything else. Not trying to be reckless or careless but I am trying to relax/enjoy so there is that aspect. look elsewhere for a pro***
Guys, I did this on the quick...not spell checking etc...and hope its worth a minor glance.
WARNING: RELYING ON ANYTHING CONTAINED HEREIN IS GROSS NEGLIGENCE :rollercoast:
Last edited:
