Week 14 Discussion and News

P-Unit

P-Unit

Beacon of Calmness
Local reports that Harrison Smith has a high ankle sprain. Almost certain to miss this week and very possible he's out for the season. Vikes are snake bit. If there is one guy on this defense they can't afford to lose, it's him.
 
Seems like a good under spot in Indy. Colts 8-4 over this season, but only 2-4 at home. Teams fighting for 1st place in division. Last 3 meetings in Indy between these teams have totaled 26, 27 and 28 pts. Total set at 47 currently.
 
Personally I won't play a Colts under this season. Secondly they are throwing a number out there that Houston hasn't topped otr yet this season. General consensus is Brock blows but he can prob get it going against the Colts d if Miller gets going. Over or nothing for me there.
 
Looks like some money coming in on the Raiders. I'm seeing KC -3 at even now. They were -125 at -3 earlier.
 
SIGO said:
Thoughts on this game, cog?
Click to expand...
I think this is a close game. KC owned us the first game, in Oakland. Alex Smith was very efficient going 19-22 passing for 224 yards. And their running game gashed us for 183 yards rushing. But that was when the Raiders defense was horrid. They're still vulnerable, but they've sorta figured out some stuff. And Khalil Mack has become a beast rushing the QB. Personally I'm not taking anything pregame. I'm going to wait and bet in-game as the Raiders and Captain Comeback Carr usually get down early, only to make a nice 2H push. I think I read Carr has 14 tds and 0 picks when trailing at HT. Something to that effect. He shines in the 2H when it counts. But if they happen to start off good and take a HT lead, I'll be happy too. I'll just not bet it and hope for a victory.

KC though has the perfect offense to give us fits. Balanced they can run or pass. And they don't take too many chances. They'll just punt and rely on their defense if they have to. They won the turnover battle too 2-0 first game, and with their conservative style, it's really the perfect offense against the Raiders.
 
Something most might not be aware since KC has been winning but our run game has been terrible lately. OL getting no push on the ground. Only running success we've had is Hill on jet sweeps and Wildcat. Think Ware had 29 yards on 14 carries last week at ATL. Lot of pressure on Smith to move the ball on his own.

Chiefs 4-1 at home this year but have not played good at all, especially offense. Only home cover IIRC was v Jets when Fitz threw 15 picks.
 
cogenman said:
I think this is a close game. KC owned us the first game, in Oakland. Alex Smith was very efficient going 19-22 passing for 224 yards. And their running game gashed us for 183 yards rushing. But that was when the Raiders defense was horrid. They're still vulnerable, but they've sorta figured out some stuff. And Khalil Mack has become a beast rushing the QB. Personally I'm not taking anything pregame. I'm going to wait and bet in-game as the Raiders and Captain Comeback Carr usually get down early, only to make a nice 2H push. I think I read Carr has 14 tds and 0 picks when trailing at HT. Something to that effect. He shines in the 2H when it counts. But if they happen to start off good and take a HT lead, I'll be happy too. I'll just not bet it and hope for a victory.

KC though has the perfect offense to give us fits. Balanced they can run or pass. And they don't take too many chances. They'll just punt and rely on their defense if they have to. They won the turnover battle too 2-0 first game, and with their conservative style, it's really the perfect offense against the Raiders.
Click to expand...

I agree here. It would be nice to get Raiders with value in the 2H, also because Andy Reid never makes 2H adjustments. What Carr saw in the 1H is what he'll see in the 2H.
 
nbafan88 said:
Should be a very good TNF. I'm actually looking forward to it this week.
Click to expand...

Should be one of the better games of the year with so much on the line. Gut says KC in primetime behind that home crowd is the way to go. But KC beat them already this year and the line looks a bit short.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Paging Capaholic for KC thoughts
Click to expand...

Hey Lex. To echo aplous a bit, the KC run game has hit a bit of a wall. But I think this is a very straight forward game. Check out the All-22 on Alex Smith against Atlanta. If you can't, check this piece http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/12/7/13863426/alex-smith-all-22-vs-falcons-who-is-this-guy. When Reid allows Smith to spread it around and open the game up, he is far better than people realize. I see a defense very much like Atlanta's on the other side tonight (Oak- vs Pass 19, ATL 23. Oak- vs run 28, AtL 27). They have beastly linebackers but a defensive line ranked 29th by FO, and a middle of the pack secondary. I do not think the Chiefs will have issues scoring tonight at all. And above all, they will not make the mistakes Carolina, Buffalo, and further Tampa made before them. Chiefs would rather punt all night then take a gamble and the Raiders love a team that likes to gamble. I think they will be very frustrated again

Unfortunately there is that other side of the ball. We have heard this is not the same Oakland team from early in the season. Much of that is true. (I will add who had heard of Tyreek Hill and Dee Ford the first time). Carr is a monster right now and the Oakland offensive line has really stood out since the Denver game. I defer to the Oakland backers to be able to speak more of the offense, but the two headed monster of Murray and Richard has been very explosive allowing Carr to use play action and pick defenses apart. This is not the same Chiefs team also. Oakland was game one of a 7-1 run that is still going strong. Oakland may be as popular as the Cowboys and Patriots and it's a nice little story, but on the frozen ground tonight at Arrowhead (forecast of possibly below 10 at kickoff), I see a powerful offense getting slowed down again by the Chiefs defense.

And I know this will not be a popular opinion, but there is a gap between coaching staffs. Del Rio is not in Reid's company. While Oakland was out running it up in the second half on Sunday, Reid was rotating the defense all game to keep them fresh for tonight. And fresh they will be as the D is as healthy as it has been since the beginning of the year and Maclin returns tonight, allowing them to get even more creative with Hill

As I said, I do not see the Chiefs having issues scoring tonight. I have played 3 Chiefs games this year. At Oakland, home Indy and home Denver and I am 3-0. I will be on this one significantly, wagering with my head and not my heart.

I wouldn't read much on gameday public money pushing it down to -110. Good luck to my CTG brethren no matter what team you back. It's just great to have a time once again where the Chiefs and Raiders actually matter like the good old battles. I'll be in KC on 12/25 for the Denver game with the Mrs. if anyone is in that region.

Cheers.
 
Agree on Kelce. Only concern is Maclin is back right? Even so, he might be eased back in. Kelce has been a beast for a while, and Andy Reid is finally using him like he should. The dude is like Gronk, but more athletic and faster.
 
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[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]OAK @ KC[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Terry McAulay [/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]51-82 (38.35%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]74-63 (54.01%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



12/11/2016


 
why does everybody and their brother love ARI without Mathieu and two timezones east? I realize everyone discounts MIA HFA, but man this is extreme
 
nbafan88 said:
Should be a very good TNF. I'm actually looking forward to it this week.
Click to expand...

+1

Montanas said:
Can the chiefs put up 20 against this defense?
Click to expand...

i would say yes, don't think the frozen field will be much of a factor as it affects both equally

Montanas said:
Looking at a Kelce yard prop he's been killing last 3 games
Click to expand...

gotta think after the running game he's the top concern for the OAK defense. Not sure in today's NFL if that means anything as they're not gonna line a DB over him with a spread formation, but Del Rio should pay a lot of attention his way

Gorgolon Lives said:
IF anyone needed further reasons to play KC tonight:

Lang's 80 DIME play is on the RAIDERS +3 @ Chiefs
Click to expand...

are his subscribers 97% faders now or what
 
From twitter:

UPDATE: Field conditions at Arrowhead are clear of ice & frost. Crew: "You can easily stick a peg in the ground. Footing will be just fine."
 
Capaholic said:
Hey Lex. To echo aplous a bit, the KC run game has hit a bit of a wall. But I think this is a very straight forward game. Check out the All-22 on Alex Smith against Atlanta. If you can't, check this piece http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/12/7/13863426/alex-smith-all-22-vs-falcons-who-is-this-guy. When Reid allows Smith to spread it around and open the game up, he is far better than people realize. I see a defense very much like Atlanta's on the other side tonight (Oak- vs Pass 19, ATL 23. Oak- vs run 28, AtL 27). They have beastly linebackers but a defensive line ranked 29th by FO, and a middle of the pack secondary. I do not think the Chiefs will have issues scoring tonight at all. And above all, they will not make the mistakes Carolina, Buffalo, and further Tampa made before them. Chiefs would rather punt all night then take a gamble and the Raiders love a team that likes to gamble. I think they will be very frustrated again

Unfortunately there is that other side of the ball. We have heard this is not the same Oakland team from early in the season. Much of that is true. (I will add who had heard of Tyreek Hill and Dee Ford the first time). Carr is a monster right now and the Oakland offensive line has really stood out since the Denver game. I defer to the Oakland backers to be able to speak more of the offense, but the two headed monster of Murray and Richard has been very explosive allowing Carr to use play action and pick defenses apart. This is not the same Chiefs team also. Oakland was game one of a 7-1 run that is still going strong. Oakland may be as popular as the Cowboys and Patriots and it's a nice little story, but on the frozen ground tonight at Arrowhead (forecast of possibly below 10 at kickoff), I see a powerful offense getting slowed down again by the Chiefs defense.

And I know this will not be a popular opinion, but there is a gap between coaching staffs. Del Rio is not in Reid's company. While Oakland was out running it up in the second half on Sunday, Reid was rotating the defense all game to keep them fresh for tonight. And fresh they will be as the D is as healthy as it has been since the beginning of the year and Maclin returns tonight, allowing them to get even more creative with Hill

As I said, I do not see the Chiefs having issues scoring tonight. I have played 3 Chiefs games this year. At Oakland, home Indy and home Denver and I am 3-0. I will be on this one significantly, wagering with my head and not my heart.

I wouldn't read much on gameday public money pushing it down to -110. Good luck to my CTG brethren no matter what team you back. It's just great to have a time once again where the Chiefs and Raiders actually matter like the good old battles. I'll be in KC on 12/25 for the Denver game with the Mrs. if anyone is in that region.

Cheers.
Click to expand...
Agree

Really like that division(after ours, homer shit) a bunch and glad it is good again
 
twinkie13 said:
thoughts on Saints/Bucs?
Click to expand...

i warmed up to NO and since then have been disappointed with their recent performances, but i am surprised the line has been below 3 and has held there.

I had TB last week and they've been beating some very good teams (not SD) lately, but did some pretty bad things on Sunday and who knows if Aguayo will doink a needed kick late. Jameis still makes ridiculous decisions and I'm not convinced their defense is good enough to trust against a high-powered offense either
 
KC giving up an average of less than 17 at home this year. OAKLAND with a little revenge fucks that trend tonight
 
Over in Miami looks really good too...Zona's D against Wash did not look sharp. No Matheiu. Last 7 road games for Zona have gone over. I think MIami is 4/5-1 Over at home. I think buy it down to 43.
 
GWarner27 said:
i warmed up to NO and since then have been disappointed with their recent performances, but i am surprised the line has been below 3 and has held there.

I had TB last week and they've been beating some very good teams (not SD) lately, but did some pretty bad things on Sunday and who knows if Aguayo will doink a needed kick late. Jameis still makes ridiculous decisions and I'm not convinced their defense is good enough to trust against a high-powered offense either
Click to expand...
and
i really think Detroit is good(Saints game last week)
 
Word is the Illuminati is making a play to send the Colts to the Superbowl.

Watch this space.

:thumbsup:
 
emkee said:
Word is the Illuminati is making a play to send the Colts to the Superbowl.

Watch this space.

:thumbsup:
Click to expand...

whatever religion the illuminati is now a part of will deserve all of our prayers going forward if they're powerful enough to get IND to the super bowl
 
I think under 4 1/2 sacks prop is a good play tonight. Neither defense ranks high in sacks this year (14th and 19th) and both quarterbacks get rid of the ball pretty well (combined they are sacked an average of 3.3 times per game)
 
I'm pretty shocked to see NE go down to -6. I figured a lot of people will be on NE since it's a stand-alone game on national tv. Also, figure a lot of parlays/teasers will be on NE to win the game outright now.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'm pretty shocked to see NE go down to -6. I figured a lot of people will be on NE since it's a stand-alone game on national tv. Also, figure a lot of parlays/teasers will be on NE to win the game outright now.
Click to expand...

yeah I want to back BAL and figured 7s would pop, but we still have plenty of time for it so I wouldn't buy BAL yet. Can't see it hitting 5.5
 
Still sitting at a very juicy 7 on Bovada. They actually released it at 7.5. If I wasn't a Pats and/or didn't think that line was fishy as hell fan I'd have been all over that.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'm pretty shocked to see NE go down to -6. I figured a lot of people will be on NE since it's a stand-alone game on national tv. Also, figure a lot of parlays/teasers will be on NE to win the game outright now.
Click to expand...

How has betting/fading the public been going lately? Pats games in general this season?
 
Cant bet this game tonight.... i was looking for a dion lewis receiving prop but 5d doesnt have anything available.
 
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