P-Unit......just reading your thread and saw your leans. Saw your lean of OVER in Texans game where line is now 47. i am 1st year capping and posting as you know. I cap every game before i read the lines or anybody else's material and then i read as much material/stats/injuries as I have time for on each team. I have done fairly well on 'totals' this year and had a good week on these last week. Long way of saying I capped Texans/Titans total as 44. FWIW.
I have not made a decision yet, but my thinking is that Houston for lack of a better word is a 'traditional offense' who can go deep, but prefers a good mix of run pass and possession. We know they have had some problems on D, but Titans have bad O problems culminating in firing of OC today. I have yet to go and look at all Titans games, but as I recall thier best output/pts this year was against the Bills and they did get into the 30s. Don't see that happening this divisional contest. Their best game otherwise, that I remember, was agst Steelers in a Thursday nite contest where they won 26-23 on last minute fg ( I bet them as I watched from the Sports Bar @ Bellagio). In any case,the Texans D is good enough to keep Titans down to their "usual" ,of late, score of around 17 and I have Texans @ 27 (3 TDs and 2 fgs).
Perhaps the best game to consider is the 1st meeting btw these 2 teams which ended 38-14? But, 2 of Texans TDs were pick 6s. Don't see that happening again. Even assuming Texans get to 30 pts (which they could), then Titans have to get to 18 to make the OVER. It may happen, but i dont see this as likely either.
Long/short.....this is a divisional game versus perhaps Texans biggest rival. I see tough, ground and pound and defensive contest which Texans win and cover 4.5 (line has now moved to 6).
But, since you lean UNDER i definitely going to reconsider my lean of OVER. Just wanted to give my thoughts and welcome critique and contrary ideas....I just want to win and if I am thinking incorrectly will be glad to hear it.
