Rest of card thoughts
WEEK 13
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week:
11-5 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week:
10-5 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.
Week 13 candidates: MAC of -40>: SD -38.5 (make list due to trending), DEN -51.5, JETS -46
Week 13 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be FADED): NE +91.5, MIA +40, BUF +45
** When using the MAC as a base to find value in the line, it’s important, the the overall picture of how a team arrived at the mac number that qualifies them. For example, Buffalo is on the list as a play against, however, the way they arrived at their qualifying number deserves further investigation. Buffalo registered a +32 last week. In 8 they registered a +23. BOTH numbers were registered against the JETS! In between their big numbers, the Bills posted a -6.5 (wk10 vs KC) and -3.5 (wk 11 @ Mia), against two of the stronger teams in the league. Mia enters w/ a +40 making them a fade against…the JETS, who subsequently are mac play with a -46, setting up the first time this year, we’ve had an over-performing team facing an under-performing club. **
Chi @ Det -7 47.5
REF: Bill Vinocich - His low-penalty tendencies have been consistent throughout his career, so expect more low-scoring games going forward. AVG T = 47.6. Avg penalties called by his crew: 12.3 – High 17 (Ravens/Steelers), low 8 (Niners/Saints)
CHI:
Relevant trends:
Since 2004 teams (CHI] coming off 2 wins both SU and ATS as home favorite of 3 or more points, and facing a good team [DET] (winning % > 60%) the following week as an away dog:
- 9-13-1 ATS
- 5-18 SU
- 5-14-1 ATS as a dog of 3 to 7 pts and 4-16 SU
Chi offense still anemic over last 5 games:
- 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] Off Yds/game
- 20[SUP]th[/SUP] pts/play
- 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] yds/play
- 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] yds/pass
- 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage differential
Chi L2 wins vs Minny and TB.
Chi AMOV on road
= -7.67:
MAC +37.5 first 4 road teams (SF, Car, Atl,NyJ) MAC L2 road = -65.5 (Gb and NE). Where does DET fit?
Chi shutout by TB in the first half last week.
Ratliff INACTIVE – big blow to Chicago defense,
Chi mac L4 = -56.5 –includes covering L2 games with a +9 MAC. Prior 3 games -81.5 mac, one of the worst runs of the seasons. NET PR -1.2 over L5 vs YTD.
DET:
DET REGRESSING
Det started 6-2 +22.5 mac. Since bye week: 1-3 SU -26 mac (Mia +1, @Az -9, @Ne -18)
YTD #11 in yard diff
L5 #20 in yard diff
Det offense 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL in PTS/PLAY L5, and almost 1 pt below league avg.
Defense regressing – YTD #3 in Def Yard/game – L5 #13 in Def Yard/game.
Det scored 15 pts L2 games
Det 6 games this year scoring LESS THAN 20 pts
Det hasn’t had more first downs than opponent since Week 6 vs Minnesota
Det 2-5 ATS L7
UNDER is 9-2 in DET games YTD
Det -28 mac L4. Det -1.4 NET PR L4 vs YTD
Conclusion:
Detroit offense has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and not better, as most expected. Now the defense is also signs of regressing. Chicago is a significant drop in class, but this is a divisional matchup, and Chicago has won 2 straight, albeit against two poor teams.
Lean the under here, and considering a teaser on Det to -1.
Phi @ Dallas -3,-120 56.5
REF: Clete Blakeman - Crew holds third lowerst avg penalties per game = 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest pts/game amongst refs. Avg T = 44. Last week GB/Min landed on 45 (Total was 49).
MAC stat applying to both teams: Balt, Phila, Indy, Den, Dal, and SF only teams ranked in top 12 of my PR with a NEGATIVE NET MAC over Last 5.
PHI:
Eagles vs top tier teams: 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
Eagles 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in schedule difficulty YTD (Opp avg PR of -2.505)
BUT Dallas 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in schedule difficulty!
Eagles decimated at ILB. Casey Matthews (-4.4 PFF rating) likely to start, Sam Acho (-0.2 PFF rating) banged up and may not play. Acho better option.
Offensive still very good – Defense bad, getting worse.
Eagles 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL in Yardage Differential Last 5.
Eagles 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in off yards/game L5
Eagles 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in defensive Pts/Play last 5
Eagles getting to QB -19 sacks L5, second best in league.
Eagles 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing Defense L5. Allowing 90.6 ypg. NFL Avg 109.
Eagles +3 mac L4 (includes -29 mac @ GB wk 11). Gb game the only time Eagles registered negative mac in double digits. In fact Phila worst mac besides GB was -5 (wk8 vs Atl lost 24-20 as 1 pt favorite)
DAL:
Dal has played 3 teams with a winning record this year
Dal home AMOV is 1.5
Dal defense regressing: Allowed 28 points in 2 of last 3 (Az and NY) vs teams that rank 25[SUP]th[/SUP] and 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in Offensive YPG respectively.
Dal 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage differential ytd – drops to 17[SUP]th[/SUP] over L5
Dal 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] in defy ds/game L5
Dal allowing 1.91 sacks per game (tied for 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YTD and L5).
Dal 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in avg rushing YPG for season (150 ypg) - 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL over L5 (137 ypg)
Dal 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in offensive pts per play YTD and L5. Avg .447 (League avg is .363)
Dal played late game on Sunday night, limited player film work on Monday.
Dal has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Only ATL has had an easier road.
Dal =14.5 mac L4 (+41 for season). 6-5 ATS. Avg mac when covering +11.8 avg closing number 4.5. Point spread has come into play in only 1 of Dallas’s 8 wins this season.
Conclusion: Sharps give Dallas a +2.5 HFA. Home AMOV this year has been 1.5, and the avg closing number is Dallas games has been 4.5 this year. Phila AMOV when away -5.8, take away GB game and that number becomes a PK. My numbers have both teams getting to 27 to the total makes sense. Game is a pass for me.
Wash @ Indy -9.5 51
REF: John Parry - He has not shown an imbalanced set of stats, though it is worth noting that all winning teams in his games have also covered the spread. Avg T = 49.1. ). Had Colts in week 8 (51-34 L @ Pitt) 15 penalties called, Colts 5 for 43 yds. Colts received 7 FD’s due to penalties. 9 FD’s total due to penalties.
WASH:
RG3
Colt McCoy being named starter (no upgrade, no down grade)
RG3 has not started and finished a Redskins victory since Week 9 of 2013 vs Chargers (Nov 3, 2013)
Colt McCoy career as starter: 8-13-1 ATS
Washington as underdog: 6-13 ATS
(Washington) NFL road underdogs off road loss: 166-101-3 (62% since 2003)
Wash 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in yard diff YTD, dropped to 17[SUP]th[/SUP] over L5.
Players more confident in McCoy than RGIII. How will RG3 reacts to benching sure to have impact on club.
Wash -13.5 mac L4. -50 on season. 21[SUP]st[/SUP] in PR ranking. Wash +1.4 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
IND:
Colts against losing teams, 16-3 against the spread
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 18-5 SU (16-7 ATS) at home; 12-11 SU on road (13-10 ATS)
Even with Ahmad Bradshaw out, Trent Richardson did not start Sunday (Daniel Herron did)
Colts 389 total yards; Jags 194
Colts haven’t beaten a team with a winning record in a month (10/19 27-0 over Cincy)
Colts 8.8 AMOV at home.
Colts #2 off yd.game and #3 in yard diff on season.
Colts started season 6-1 ATS. 2-1 since.
Colts -29.4 mac L4 [-21.5 wk8 (Ptt) and -25 wk 11 (NE)]. Colts -1.8 NET PR L5 vs YTD. Colts positive PR over last 5, but -5.4 mac.
Conclusion: Colts playing B2B weeks against poor competition. Shutdown Jax last week. Wash hung in against SF. QB change may provide spark, as players seem behind it. Colts have CLE on deck, poss look ahead to conference. PR says line is correct. Pass for now.
Ten @ Hou -7 42.5
REF: Jeff Tripplette - His career numbers show a slight edge for home teams and a tendency to call a lot of penalties, though his early returns in 2014 have been the opposite (AVG T – 43) Even as we can see a ton of low-scoring games and road underdogs covering,
expect some regression towards his career mean, which could spell more penalties leading to slower, higher-scoring contests – Wk 12 Den/Mia 36-33: 69 pts
Titans Plain Bad
Titans: 3-13 ATS last 16 games
(Tennessee) NFL road underdogs off road loss: 166-101-3 (62% since 2003)
Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road: As an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 6 of 24 ATS – Lost ATS last week as 12 pt dog.
Tennessee rushed for only 52 yards
Tennessee did not get a first down till their 5[SUP]th[/SUP] offensive series
Tenny D has played 775 snaps this season, second in league, the equivalent of 2 full games when compared to the avg snaps of an NFL D.
Oak (33:23), TENN (33:01), Jax (, Phila, ATL – Teams that D logs the most time on field per game. Only Phila is by design.
Sunday: Mettenberger: 20/39 for 345 yards (2/1) – Considering they were facing two 3 pass rush team over the last month, not really that bad.
Tenny rush defense allowing league worst 145 y/g against the rush
Tenny mac -19 L4. -54.5 on season. Tenny season low PR -6.7, +0.7 NET L5 vs YTD seems insignificant.
Houstons Disappointment?
Prior excitement around Ryan Mallett could possibly result in a letdown as a result of his injury. Fitzpatrick to start.
Texans 6-1 ATS vs. Titans
Texans notched 31-16 win on 10/26 over Tenny, with a +11 mac. Hou ran the ball 40 times for 212 yards, and Fitz was still sacked 5 times on 34 drop backs.
Last week big letdown for Hou. Team believed in Mallet, coaches committed to him, and now they are back to the guy who they basically said they can’t win with.
Hou -1.4 AMOV at home
RB Foster was OUT vs. Cincy – expected to play vs Tenny
Texans had 60 yard INT TD return last week
Time of Possession: Texans 21 minutes; Bengals 39 minutes
Hou +15 mac L4, and +1.0 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion:
Seems like the air has been let out of the Houston balloon. Team wanted Mallett to be the guy, now back to ousted Fitzgerald. Tenny has been bad, but unlike Houston, they are seeing some positives out of rookie QB. Houston motivation a question.
Slight lean towards Tenny, lean towards the over.
Cleveland @ Buffalo -3.5 42 (was Buf -2)_
REF: JEROME BOGER: The games he has taken have been mostly blowouts, with only the Week 9 game between the
Rams and
49ers being decided by fewer than 8 points. Blowing W13 Phila ov Tenny
CLE:
Josh Gordon
Last Week: Josh Gordon: 8 receptions for 120 yards
Beyond Josh Gordon’s catches, he effectively stretches the field for Cleveland.
Browns averaged 5.6 yards per rush attempt on Sunday, after averaging only 2.4 yards per attempt the prior five games
Browns low PR despite record. Browns an average NFL team 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in league.
Spread not a factor: The SU winner of the last
39 Cleveland games has covered 33 times (spread has mattered only six times)
Browns still dealing w/injuries, and now starting safety Gipson out. Gipson highest rated defender on Browns (per PFF) leads league in Int’s.
Jim Leonard replacement. +1.4 pass cov grade. Leonard good experience in Pettine scheme.
Sunday: Browns Hoyer 23/40 for 322 yards (0/3).
Completed 20 of 50 passes last week – so less than 50% over last two weeks
Cle 3-1 ATS away – lone road loss vs Jacksonville. 0.6 AMOV on road.
Cle mac -3 L4 (+4 on season). Since week 4 bye mac -3. Cle +3.1 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Buffalo Disruption
Buffalo’s familiarity with Jets likely aided ability to prepare for effectively even with schedule disrupted last week. Not the case vs. Browns.
Buffalo with a blocked punt TD (vs. Jets on Monday)
Bills practice schedule last week was severely affected by weather and location of game
Bills sacked Jets 7 times – Bills Top Sack team in NFL L5 (27 – 5.4 per game).
Conclusion: Hoyer off two bad games. Browns got running game going last week (29 for 162) vs ATL compared to Hou game (24 for 58). Bills 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in rushing D on season, BUT drop to 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in L5 allowing 135.40 (Jets (2), Mia, Kc, Min). Cle in the hunt at 7-4, and emotional win over ATL last week, could be boost they need. I think there was an over-reaction to Buf win last week. STRONG LEAN CLEVELAND.
San Diego @ Balt -6 45.5 (opened 5.5)
REF: Walt Anderson: Despite being in the top percentile of penalties per game, scoring has been all over the place during Anderson's games. Avg T = 45. High T =64 (Den/Pats) Low T = 33 (Balt/Colts). Week 5 vs Balt – Balt 5 for 36, Ind 6 for 83.
BALT:
Ravens strong at home – but numbers are regressing.
Last 56 home games, Baltimore has won 46
Ravens and Saints combined for 974 yards of offense on Monday Night
Ravens with an INT TD return vs. Saints on MNF
Ravens RB Forsett 182 rushing yards on 22 carries vs. Saints. AFC offensive player of the week, two straight weeks. –Chargers 15[SUP]th[/SUP] vs run on season, BUT drops to 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in L5 (STL, Oak, Mia, Den, Kc).
Balt offense 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in y/g YTD, drops to 13[SUP]th[/SUP] L5 5.
Balt OFF 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] downs L5. SD Def 17[SUP]th[/SUP] L5.
Balt safety Will Hill playing good ball.
SD:
SD 2-3 ATS L5 trips to East coast
SD rankings paint bad picture.
SD 12-4 ATS as a regular season underdog, but have not covered since Wk5.
San Diego has lost only 5 of 18 against the spread under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
SD intercepted Shaun Hill at the goal line with 56 seconds left to preserve the SD’s victory over St. Louis last week
Last week, first time SD eclipsed 20 pts since week 7 – did so w/ a 16 yard fumble return for TD
SD 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff over L5. Drop for 13[SUP]th[/SUP] on the season. SD off yd/game down to 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL over L5.
Chris Watt, a rookie from Notre Dame, had his first NFL start and was the fourth player to start at center for the Chargers this season
SD -43.5 mac L5. Nose dive from 10[SUP]th[/SUP] overall in PR to 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in league over last 5. NET PR drop of -7.7 and -49.5 mac over same period. Take away -34 mac against Mia, and SD mac -19.5
Conclusion: Sd has been bad, but signs of improvement ATS are emerging. Positive trend in mac for first time since wk4-wk5. Baltimore win over Saints, may be pushing this number a bit, as both public and sharps backed Saints last Monday. “6” is about right, but a “7.5” may put be on SD. SD starting 4[SUP]th[/SUP] center a definite red flag.
Nyg -2.5 @ Jax – NO INTEREST.
Cincy -3 44.5 @ Tampa (opened at -4)
REF: Bill Leavy - Even as he has been almost league-average in terms of called penalties (more penalties tend to increase scoring), he has seen all but one of his games go above the posted total points line, including games with low-scoring teams like the Jets, Raiders, Texans, and Falcons. Watch out for his next assignment, as it seems that teams like scoring in front of his crew. After Balt/NO, Leavy now 8-1 OVER
TB:
Tampa home field
Tampa at home: 13-35 ATS at home
As a home underdog: 5-22 against the spread
Tampa Better than Record
6 of last 8 games Tampa Bay has lead in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter
4th straight game TB has outgained opponents
(they had been outgained their 10 prior games)
Bucs 10-2 ATS last 10 November games
McCown starts: 1-5 ATS
Mike Glennon starts: 3-2 ATS
Game Totals:
TB 367 yards; Chicago 204 yards
TB gained only 66 yards rushing (only 48 yards prior week)
Last week at Chi game dropped from Chi -6 to close of Chi -4. Early line before last week: Cin -2.5
TB +18 mac L4. +5.5 NET PR L5 vs YTD – both signs of team improving SU and ATS.
CIN:
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 9 of last 30
(Cincy) NFL away favorite off game as away dog: 25-5-1 ATS (since 9/30/2012)
Jeremy Hill emerging.
Last Week: Time of Possession: Bengals 39 minutes; Texans 21 minutes
Bengals right tackle Andre Smith injured his left biceps in the first quarter and didn't return.
AJ Green: 248 yards combined receiving last two games (only 67 yards in prior two games)
Road team in Tampa games this season: 9-2 ATS
Cinc mac +19.5 L4 and +24.5 L2. +25.5 since wk 8, after hit season low -62.5 wks 5-7. Cinc +3.3 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion: Will TB’s run of consistency come to end? Which Andy Dalton will show up? Both teams coming off a down trend on the MAC. Would plat Tampa at +4. Otherwise, pass.
NO INTEREST in RAMS/OAKLAND
New Orleans @ Pitt – 4 5
REFS: Peter Morelli's crew have been below-average in calling penalties for 11 straight years, which might explain the low-scoring nature of his games. If there is an opportunity to cash in, keep a close look at his next scheduled games. Avg T = 38.9
N.O.:
Saints on Road
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) have covered ONLY 10 of 48 games
New Orleans ranked slightly below avg on heels of 3 straight home losses. L5 rated slight above avg (1.4)
4 of 7 Saints losses this season by three points or fewer
Coach Payton off a loss: 20-9 ATS
Saints with Coach Payton: 27-18-1 ATS last 46 games
Mark Ingram
MNF vs. Baltimore: 11 carries for 27 yards
Week prior: 23 carries for 67 yards
Prior 3 games: 392 yards rushing
Saints and Ravens combined for 974 yards of offense on Monday Night
Ravens with an INT TD return vs. Saints on MNF
Saints 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in Defense yard/game.
Saints 1[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL in offensive yards/game. Dropped to 4[SUP]th[/SUP] over L5.
Saints Net -2 turnovers L5.
Saints -23.5 mac L4, +35 mac in prior 4.
Look ahead?
Steelers have lost 14 of 15 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati
RB LeVeon Bell: 33 rushes for 204 yards (game before bye)
Time of Possession: Pitt 40 min, Tenn 20 min
First Downs: Pitt 29, Tenn 14
RB LeGarrette Blount CUT for attitude problem
Ike Taylor, Ryan Shazier, and Troy Polamalu expected back for Pittsburgh this week, lose Cortez Allen (-16.1 PFF grade) and Steve McLendon a significant loss. +4.3 PFF grade overall, and +5 against run. Replacement McCullers +1.9, BUT Cam Thomas is terrible. -20.9 PFF grade.
Pitt home AMOV = 8.8
Pitt 5-1 SU L6, but only 3-3 ATS.
Pitt -2 net turnovers L5
Conclusion: Saints the more desperate team (been that way for three weeks). Thought last week would have been the game where they step up. Red Zone efficiency has dropped. Team misses Sproles. Pitt off rest and recent form, would seem to have the edge. Both teams in top 5 in yards per game/O. Saints 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in D yards/game, Pitt 13[SUP]th[/SUP]. Of numbers drop L5. Saint drop from 1 to 4 on offense, and Pitt 5 to 7 in offense L5. Pitt #4 in yardage Diff L5, Saints 6. Teams even in yards per play offense and defense L5. Line is basically saying Pitt -1 on neutral field.
Of note: Saints Coach
Sean Payton and Steelers Offensive Coordinator
Todd Haley served on the same offensive coaching staff in Dallas from 2004-05. Ref under streak very interesting. Points are interesting here. Pitt has been all over the place in mac: FOUR grades at -10 or worse, and THEE macs at +18 or better. Lean Saints here. The least real good game Pitt played was on 11/2. Following we they give Jets only win.
Carolina @ Minnesota -2.5 42
REF: Brad Allen -
Allen has shown no particular trends to highlight, though he has been part of several blowouts that have made his job easier. He ranks highly in terms of NFL grades, but it would be kind of shocking to see him in the playoffs. Avg T =46
CAR:
Stats Even Worse than Scores
Carolina outgained Atlanta in their last game (prior to bye).
Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games.
Carolina O-lineman has been beat up … but some starters are now returning.
Cam Newton rushed for 107 yards 5 games ago (more carries than all other games up to that point). The entire offense improves significantly if Newton is a true duel-threat, but isn’t healthy, nor interested.
The next week against GB: 7 rushes for 41 yards (5.9 average)
The next week against NO: 7 rushes for 43 yards (6.1 average)
The week against Philly: 2 rushes for 6 yards
Vs. Atlanta: 5 attempts for 30 yards
Carolina: 9-4 ATS as a road underdog
Carolina 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff YTD. 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] L5.
Carolina offense has remained static, but defense has improved. Car 25 in diff yards/game YTD, 17[SUP]th[/SUP] L5.
Carolina 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in yards per play offensively
Carolina is 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in pts per play on offense.
Car -7.5 mac L4. Car -1.2 NET PR L5.
MINN:
Vikings in last 7 weeks have yielded 26 sacks (2 last week) – BUT registered 31 for a NET 5. Big turnaround.
Bridgewater becoming more comfortable, but offense still a liability.
Minny 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts per play on offense.
Minny L5 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in offensive yards/game.
Minny spirits are up despite losing record. Team feels it is going in right direction.
Weather favors Minny and UNDER: high near 15. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph
Conclusion: UNDER is a play at 42. Two bad offenses against two improving defenses, playing less than ideal weather. See this one being a 17-14 game.
Arizona -1.5 44.5 @ Atlanta
REF: Tery McAulay: His career stats show that he has always been close to the league average when it comes to home wins, and while he has again seen home teams go above .500 overall, they have been mostly close games where road underdogs end up covering. If fairness is what you seek, Terry McAulay is your go-to referee. Avg T = 45
AZ:
Impressive Arizona Numbers
Arizona is 16-4 SU (losing only two games by more than 3 points) losing only 4 times against the spread
Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher for 21 straight games
Arizona has 17 sacks over their last three games (after only 8 the first eight games of season)
Despite 9-2 record, AZ sits 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in my PR.
Somewhat of a sandwich game for AZ. Off Sea last week and home vs KC next week.
Arizona 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff L5. Improvement of 20[SUP]th[/SUP] rating YTD.
AZ goes from playing two of the best defenses in the NFL to one of the worst. Before Det and Sea, Az had scored 31,28,24, and 24 L4.
Cards DC Todd Bowles receiving strong notices grades around league.
Arizona has outscored opponents 91 to 34 in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter this season (17 of those points came in one game against Den … so yielding less than 2 points per in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarters of other ten games)
Arizona vs. Sea: Both teams combined for only 497 yards of total offense. First 5 scores of game were FGs
Arizona had only 64 total yards rushing
Larry Fitzgerald Did Not Play last week
Az mac +23.5 L4. -8.5 rating last week. Second worst mac of season (prior wk5 -12.5).
ATL:
NOT impressive Atlanta numbers
Atlanta’s last 21 games against teams other than Tampa Bay, they’ve won only 4 times.
Atlanta has given up the most yards passing the league while face weak passing offensives (no games vs top 7 in league but five games vs. bottom 7)
Falcons outscored 94 to 31 in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter (last nine games)
Recent weeks the line has seen a marked improvement. Rookie left tackle
Jake Matthews turned in a
-0.4 overall grade in Week 12, his best performance since Week 4. Elsewhere on the line, several starters have graded positively in pass protection this season, with left guard
Justin Blalock (
+4.8), right guard
Jon Asamoah (
+3.3), and right tackle
Ryan Schraeder (
+1.2), all holding their own. (PER PFF)
Will it be enough against stout Arizona DL?
Falcons gained only 63 yards rushing on Sunday
Falcons took the lead over Browns on a FG with only 44 seconds left in game
Falcons 4-0 SU in division; 0-7 out of division
ATL +5 mac L4. -57 mac prior 4. L5 games mac has ranged between -4.5 and 7. Prior saw range of -18.5 to 34. Shows oddsmakers have firmer grip on team.
Conclusion: Az has had three straight physical contests. If they keep their focus, they should beat ATL. MY PR line is ATL -1. Pass.
I see no value at all or interest in the line in GB/NE - PASS
Patriots and GB, currently two best teams.
Although a few pro bettors I talked to question Green Bay’s strength of schedule
Pats getting points
As Underdog: Bill Belichick with Patriots: 41-21-1 ATS
The Patriots have won six games by at least 22 points
Patriots have lost 7 straight ATS on grass
Pats averaging almost 40 points their last 7 games
Road team in New England games: covered only 8 of last 29 games
Pats Jonas Gray did not play Sunday (coach’s decision) – after rushing for 199 yards and 4 TDs the prior week
3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight victory over a division leader for Patriots
Patriots +90 turnovers last 75 regular season games
Two popular teams
GB: playing only 1 road game in 5 week span
Den @ KC pk 49
REF: Walt Coleman- His career numbers have varied wildly from year to year, but on average he has been neutral with home-field while calling a below-average number of penalties. These tendencies have held true again, leading to a large number of low-scoring games. Expect more of the same in the future, as his crew holds the lowest number of penalties called per game.
41[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 42 that Denver has been favored
Denver with Manning as a favorite 27-15 ATS
Broncos since start of last season: 23-7 SU (winning 21 times by a TD or more)
Broncos CBs Aqib Talib (hamstring) and Kayvon Webster (shoulder) left the game as did MLB Brandon Marshall (concussion)
Denver in their last 5: -4.8 AMOV on road vs -1 on season.
Den is a MAC play
Den -46.5 MAC L4. Prior +38 wk5-wk8.
How good is Alex Smith?
Alex Smith last 53 games as a starter: 38-14-1 SU
Kansas City still does not have a single TD pass to a Wide Receiver this season
Last Week: Broncos C.J. Anderson rushed for 167 yards on 27 carries
.KC likely to struggle against elite teams that will force them to pass/play from behind at times.
Road team in KC games: 12-4 ATS
KC +11.2 home AMOV, +15 L5 (Oak, Sea, Buf, Jets, Stl) 4-1 ATS.
KC mac +4.5 L4. KC +1.6 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion: Denver’s strengths are KC’s weaknesses. It makes sense that KC can stick with a Seattle team, but they haven’t played an offensive based team like KC since Sept. They lost to Den in wk3, and were the last team to stick it to NE. Again, this was back in Sept. Since Oct, KC hasn’t faced a team ranked in the top 10 in offensive yards/game, yards/play, etc. This group includes: SF, SD, Stl, NyJ, Buf, Sea, and Oak. Lean DENVER.
