Week 13 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Saturday worked out well last week after the weekday vomiting, resulting in a 12-8 week to bring the season total over .500!!!!! (88-85-4). Hopefully we'll see some more competence this week and build to an actual delta of significance over that .500 mark.

In the past in this spot I would offer some opinions, especially at this time of the year as the weekly rankings for the popular kids party invitational get unveiled. Maybe I'm getting old, but I find myself not caring anymore. We all know whatever these maniacs currently involved in this cesspool do is completely devoid of logic and they are all swamp creatures beneath contempt and beyond all semblance of hope, so maybe that's why I can't muster any attention to it. Is there anything egregious? I assume so, but I'm not compelled to waste energy on it. As long as there's games to bet on.

Forgot to mention the Illinois game last week, but I don't think anyone missed it because it wasn't a very interesting game to bet on. This week Illinois is laying 8-9 at Wisconsin. Illinois defense has been mostly sketchy all year, but until recently, they had played almost exclusively high octane offenses. When they've played average to below average offenses, they've actually been pretty good. They shut out Western Michigan in week 3 and the past two offenses they've played (Rutgers and Maryland) were also mediocre at best and they gave up 13 and 6 points respectively. This week they play perhaps the worst of the bunch in Wisconsin, so I'm not expecting them to give up much here either. Wisconsin's defense is good, but the Illini offense has been reliable all year, so I'd expect a decent performance from them, and Wisconsin is not good against the pass. I'd assume about a 24-10 game on a neutral, so at Camp Randall, this should be somewhere in the vicinity of the current line.

Missouri +7 LOSS
Kansas +3.5 LOSS
Toledo -27.5 WIN
Nevada +6.5 WIN
FAU +7 WIN
Arkansas +8.5 LOSS
Iowa -17 LOSS
USC +11 LOSS
North Carolina +7 PUSH
Maryland +14.5 LOSS
Penn State -7.5 WIN
Colorado +7 LOSS
San Diego State -11.5 WIN

5-7-1

1. Missouri +7 @Oklahoma (BR): The Sooner defense has been pretty much everything for Oklahoma. They've figured out ways to win even though both Tennessee and Alabama were able to put up yards against them. Frankly. the Sooners have been in their element in true road games. Very nice wins at Tennessee and Alabama the past two weeks, and pretty thorough beat downs of South Carolina and Temple before that. at home and in the neutral against Texas, they've been very questionable. Ole Miss beat them and thoroughly outplayed them, they looked terrible overall in allowing Texas to bully them around in Dallas, and they should have lost at home to Auburn. The Sooner offense is running on fumes. They are very unlikely to be able to run the ball on Mizzou's defense, and Mateer has been very mistake prone. Missouri was impressive their last time out on the road at Vandy, where they held that Vandy offense to only 265 yards. I don't expect Oklahoma to have any success on the Tiger defense, and although Oklahoma is #1 in the country at stopping the run, Missouri is going to be the best rush offense they've faced by far, as a good portion of their schedule this year can't run the ball to save their lives. Ahmad Hardy is almost certainly the best RB in the country, coming off a 300 yard rushing performance last week against Mississippi State. Although I fear what Zollers might get himself into against this defense, he settled in much better last week. Ultimately, I see this as a low scoring, close to the vest game, and unless Mizzou completely no shows, Oklahoma will not be able to score much in this one. If Mizzou can cash in for a couple TDs, they can win this. Both defenses should have very good success which makes this 7 point line a pretty attractive proposition. Always good to fade the team coming home after a huge road win and the Sooners have all the pressure on them as they currently are right in the mix for a playoff spot.

Pribula ended up playing, but I don't know that the Tigers were much better off because he came up empty every time they had a chance to do something, and his coach certainly didn't trust him because the play calling took the safe way out exclusively. I mentioned Oklahoma would be tight and they were. With 6 minutes left in the half, MIzzou was lining up for a short Fg to go up 6-0 and the boos were raining down. They block the FG, and then bust an 88 yard slant to Sategna and it's 7-3 like that. Other than that play, Oklahoma did nothing on offense. The problem was that Mizzou didn't either, and their special teams were atrocious. That was not new, and was something I should have considered.
 
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2. Kansas +3.5 @Iowa State (BOL) : When I looked at this game, I assumed the line might be a little higher, but the line being where it is probably tells us something. Kansas is looking for their 6th win in order to get bowl eligible, and they play Utah next week, so this is probably their chance to do it. Ku has been pretty good on the road, hanging close on the scoreboard with Mizzou, beating UCF in the Bounce House when UCF wasn't a worthless blob of shit offensively and last time out playing a pretty solid Arizona team to the wire in Tucson in a game they had until the very end. Iowa State stole a win from TCU last week, but in their last two home games, they've had completely uneven efforts, falling apart late in a 14 point loss to BYU and losing to a Jeff Sims led Arizona State team. I show Kansas with edges in most categories, which tells me that these teams are at worst evenly matched. Kansas is coming off a bye and is totally motivated while Iowa State is already at 6 wins but has fallen well short of their goals. I think I have the slightly better team based on this year's performance with a motivational edge plus I'm getting more than a FG. Iowa State is still beat up and Kansas is off a bye. That's enough for me.

I don't know what happened to Kansas here. They didn't show up, which is rare for them. Their running backs went for 9 yards per carry in the game but they abandoned it. I hitched my wagon to a team that didn't have it from the jump in this one. It happens.
 
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3. @Toledo -27.5(-117) v Ball State (BR): These are the kind of games that Toledo has no problem with whatsoever. They certainly struggle with the road favorite role, but not at home. Also, Ball State, when overmatched against a legitimately, has completely been pulverized. Auburn held them to 66 yards for the entire game. Western Michigan, ranked 16th in yards per play against, held them to 88 total yards. Toledo might be the best of the bunch, ranking 3rd in overall yards per play, 7th against the run, 7th against the pass and 10th on 3rd down. Offensively they are the tops in the MAC, and the Ball State defense will be woefully overmatched on that side of the ball as well. Ball State's last chance at a win was probably last week at home against Eastern Michigan, and the Eagles(Hurons) just walked into Schumann Stadium in Muncie and stole their lunch money and drank their school provided milk. It was over from jump street. If Ball State even remotely makes this a game, I'll be surprised. This one will be all Toledo.

Ball State played WAY better than I expected and this still covered without much problem. I know the line moved quite a bit late, hopefully anyone that played this got 28 or better.
 
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4. Nevada +6.5 @Wyoming (BOL) : Nevada running San Jose State completely out of the stadium last week was one of the more surprising outcomes of last week's card. The Wolf Pack(2 words) was humiliated the week before by Utah State, and then they turned around and dominated a San Jose State team that previously had looked competent, especially on offense. Nevada playing that well at home was a departure, as they usually compete well on the road(save that Utah State debacle. Last week, the Wolf Pack defense flummoxed SJSU QB Walker Eget, holding him to his worst effort by far (11/23, 74 yards 3 picks) and he's actually been pretty good this year. Defensively, Nevada's not bad, and they'll be facing a Wyoming offense that left a lot to be desired last week and has for the entire season. I was close to taking the points with Wyoming last week, and I'm glad I held off, because if you watched the Cowboys try to play offense last week, your eyes are still bleeding. They managed only 184 yards and 3.1 yards per play. QB Kaden Anderson was benched after going 6/23 for 64 yards. Their RB Samuel Harris the true freshman is about all they have on offense. Him alone will be hard to rely on to cover almost a TD with an offense like that. I show these two teams pretty evenly matched, maybe even a slight edge to Nevada when matched up unit for unit. I'll take the points in this one.

Wyoming's offensive problems continued. 220 total yards for the game. It's hard to cover a TD if you can't move the ball, and Nevada's defense was easily good enough to get the job done.
 
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5. @FAU +7 v UConn (BR) : On paper, UConn looks like they'll take care of just about everyone because they've played a borderline high school JV schedule. In fact, the Huskies schedule ranks 137th per Sagarin. which is significantly weaker than what FAU has played, and their schedule is no great shakes either. UConn has played 3 times on the road this year when they've had to cover a significant number against a team they're expected to beat, and they've failed to cover all 3 times and lost two of them. The three teams? Buffalo(won 20-17), Delaware (lost 44-41) and Rice (lost 37-34). All 3 of those teams are power rated significantly below FAU (Rice is #107, Delaware #135 and Buffalo #144). FAU checks in at #84. FAU has spent the year adjusting to Zack Kittley's offense, but they've thrown for more than 300 yards in 7 of their 10 games and haven't thrown for less than 277 in any of them. If nothing else, they are a severe back door threat, but UConn hasn't been in a situation to leave the back door open in games like this previously this year. Nothing much is riding on this game for the Huskies, I think the Owls are live.

Covering a decent amount continues to be a bugaboo for UConn, and especially so if you give up 687 yards of offense, which the Huskies did. Luckily for them they piled up 600 themselves and had the ball last.
 
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6. Arkansas +8.5 @Texas: (BOL) I mean, c'mon. There's no way I'm not going to be on the Hogs here. They've covered every opportunity they've had as a road dog this year and have done so in 8 of their last 10 tries in that role. This year, despite being winless in conference, they've actually outgained their opponents in conference games. They should have no problem throwing the ball on this Texas defense, and believe it or not, I think they'll be able to put pressure on Arch Manning and I'm not convinced Texas will be able to run it on them, so it might be up to Arch to get points on the board. Hitting paydirt in the red zone has been a struggle for the Horns regardless of who they've played (80th), so we might see a gaggle of field goals from them while Arkansas scores TDs on 75% of their red zone trips. You'd wonder about Arkansas's motivation given their record, but there's no way the Hogs don't get up for Texas, one of their oldest rivals. They can drill the nail in the coffin for Texas as it relates to the playoff, and you can make the case that that's already been done, so what does Texas have to play for? Arkansas hates Texas a lot more than vice versa, I would assume. Arkansas is an auto play for me in this spot.

Texas got the best performance they'll ever get from Arch Manning, and if Taylen Green didn't get hurt they might have lost anyway. The Horns never really stopped Arkansas while Green was in there and when the backup came in they hit a 2-3 drive dryspell. He eventually figured things out too, but they certainly cover this game and stay perfect this year as a road dog if Green plays the whole game.
 
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7. @Iowa -17 v Michigan State (BOL) : I'm like a broken record fading the Spartans again, but this week, it looks like both QBs, Chiles and Milivojevic are going to be out. There's a chance Milivojevic plays, but it looks unlikely, and why would they risk him at this point? The Spartans last hurrah was last week at home against Penn State, and the Nittany Lions stuffed them in a locker. Now they have to get off the mat and go to Iowa City to play an Iowa team off back to back tough losses, desperately needing a get right game? Even with their Qbs this would be a tough task, but now they likely will have to do it with one of two guys who have never taken a snap in college, Rylann Jessee or Leo Hannan, both Freshmen. If that happens, Iowa might be able to just suit up their defense and special teams and punt or kick a FG on first down and they might cover this number. MSU has struggled to stop the run all year so I'm sure Iowa will break a few and that defense will be salivating. Rough spot for the Spartans.

I was rooting hard for Iowa to lose this when it became evident early that they had no shot to cover this number. Dumb play, and MSU has made me pay several times this year. Milivojevic was just fine, which made this lack any sort of value. Bad play.
 
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8. USC +11 @Oregon (BR) : This got up to 11, so at this point, I had to play it. I know Oregon has been awesome, and their profile on paper is elite, but I still am not sold on them based on who they've played. The Ducks rank 2nd in yards per play on both sides of the ball, but if you've watched them in the games against the highest competition, they leave something to be desired. Their defense has been extremely good, especially against the pass, but let's have a look at the yards per play rankings of the FBS teams they've played this year. Clearly Indiana is a good offense, and he Hoosiers rank 16th in yards per play. However, here are the rest of those yards per play offensive rankings of their opponents: #62(Rutgers), #93(Penn State), #99 (Michigan State), #102(northwestern), #103 (Iowa), #118 (Oregon State) #127 (Minnesota), #128 (Oklahoma State) and #134 (Wisconsin). This USC squad is a totally different animal than pretty much everyone the Ducks have played, and I'd even throw Indiana into that equation. In my opinion, Oregon has played 3 high level squads, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa. All three were a struggle, and Indiana kind of dominated them. USC isn't elite defensively by any means, but they are on offense. Even after playing 2 high level pass defenses in Nebraska and Iowa, they Trojans still rank in the top 5 in yards per pass attempt. Also, everyone is mourning the loss of Waymond Jordan at RB, but King Miller has been outstanding(7.3 ypc) and I think Oregon can be run on. Both Teams have some injuries. For USC, they'll be down one of their best defensive players in Bishop Fitzgerald, but Urlacher's kid played well in his absence last week. I do think they'll get green dot guy Khmari Ramsey back but maybe not OT Elijah Page. On Oregon's side, Dekorian Moore looks like he'll be out and 2nd leading receiver Gary Bryant, Jr is still recovering from an injury as well. USC has everything to play for, and I don't put as much credence in their road struggles now that they are just traveling within the same time zone They did one of these "non time zone" trips last year and they won over UCLA rather easily. Oregon has not showed the chops to demolish a highly skilled offensive team, and that's what USC is with Lemon and Lane. I'm also skeptical that Dante Moore is going to execute at a flawless level, especially if his top two receivers is out. Ultimately, 11 is too much. USC can certainly win this game.

Oregon opened the back door and begged USC to walk through it but they refused. Credit to Moore though, USC never really stopped him all day and he didn't have his top 2 receivers.
 
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Gonna have a few more tomorrow, but probably not close to as many as last week. At least I don't think so as of now.
 
9. @North Carolina +7 v Duke (BR): Duke is a team with a lot of variance attached to it. They have an offense that can go off, their defense is predicated on pressure and TFLs so they can look really good at times when you watch them. But the reality this year is that they've shit the bed when they've had any kind of opportunity to do something meaningful. I don't know where this game falls in that whole scheme of things, but they've been a pretty good bet to make things harder for themselves. In this game, as I analyze it, I see two teams that have strengths and weaknesses that pretty much match each other. Duke is good on offense and has a good passing game, but UNC gets after the QB and can cover well, and have kept teams out of the end zone, especially in the 2nd half of the season as they've settled in to young Belichick's system. Duke defense is atrocious against the pass and on a yards per play basis, but the UNC offense has been among the worst in power 4. The teams are very evenly matched. I'm getting 7 with the home team in a rivalry game and the favorite has a penchant for making head slapping plays. As Mr Burns would say when he managed the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant team of MLB ringers when he pinch hit Homer for Darryl Strawberry: "He's a righty, Strawberry...it's called 'playing the percentages'".

I would make this play again. North Carolina was up a point with 2 minutes left. Duke needed to score a TD(when a FG would suffice) and then convert on the 2 pointer to get the push and they did it. How many of you would think you'd have a chance in hell of salvaging a push if you were laying 7 in that scenario? Yeah, me neither.
 
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10. @Maryland +14.5(-117) v Michigan (BOL): This was hovering around 13-13.5 for most of the week, but now that it hit 14 and then some, I bought it to over 2 TDs. Tough spot for Michigan here traveling to Maryland with Ohio State, which is their season for many reasons, on deck. Both of their running backs are highly likely to be out. Their only chance to win next week against Ohio State is to have one or both of them back, so I can't imagine you'll see them this week. Michigan has underperformed the box scores all year, winning by much less than they should despite looking very good on paper, and this is especially true in their games away from Ann Arbor. They dominated Nebraska in Lincoln but won by only 3. They played with their food at Michigan State and won by 11. They shot themselves in the foot repeatedly and almost lost last week in Chicago against the Cats. They even only beat Purdue by 5 in Ann Arbor in a game that they never sniffed a cover. Now they play Maryland, banged up in a look ahead spot and they have to cover 14? Listen, Maryland is bad, but they have some attributes. Defensively they can cover a bit, so I think anything Michigan does will have to be on the ground, and that's asking a of Bryson Kuzdzal because they aren't going to want Underwood running around and risking injury. This just seems like a game Michigan wants to just get out of there with a win, and their pedigree this year, even when healthy in good motivational spots, has zero instances of them covering a number this big on the road.

What a pathetic bunch this Maryland team is. (Context/Full disclosure: I have an over bet on the 4.5 Maryland win total. They won the first 4 and now appear to be on the road to losing 8 straight to close out the season). Michigan was saddled with plenty of injuries, a terrible motivational spot and had a pedigree of not covering numbers like this and they handled this like they were taking out the trash. Kudzdal ran on them just like anyone else would. They could have suited up the equipment managers less talented brother and it wouldn't have mattered. This one was not close. The Terps scored on their first drive and that was about it.
 
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11. @Penn State -7.5 v Nebraska (BOL) : If you wait, this one might drop to 7, but it's still a bit too pricey to buy it right now. We all know Penn State has had a disaster of a season, but they proved last week that they haven't thrown in the towel, and you would only expect a great effort at home against a "historically good" team like Nebraska. Nebraska is kind of cursed because their reputation is always outsized over their ability and has been for 15 years, but that's a story for another day. Nebraska bounced back from the loss of Dylan Raiola to get a win at UCLA in a game that backup TJ Lateef played well. However, this Nebraska defense, although very good against the pass, cannot stop the run against anyone that has a penchant for doing it. Michigan tore throw them like a freight train. Minnesota, who ranks 125th in yards per carry, ran it down their throat and ran them out of the stadium despite being a double digit dog. Northwestern ran it for 5.8 yards per carry. You get the idea. Penn State will run it at will on these guys, and probably won't need to worry about involving Grunkmeyer, even though he's looked better in recent weeks. Lateef as I mentioned looked pretty good last week, but that was in the Rose Bowl in front of family and friends against a powder blue clad bunch of powder puff defenders who rank outside of the top 110 in just about every category and would never be so mean as to actually put any pressure on him(134th in sack rate). It was like a nice fluffy dream, very pleasant. Penn State hasn't been great this year, but the environment is going to be a lot different than that at night in front of 100,000. If Lateef pulls off a similar performance to last week this week, I'll tip my cap until I need Tommy John surgery.

231 rushing yards for Penn State, and Lateef barely averaged 5 yards per pass attempt. Also, Grunkmeyer went 11/12 for 183 yards (15 yards per attempt!!) against the 3rd ranked pass defense in the country. He's clearly settling in. Penn State will probably get an outsized bowl invitation for their season long accomplishments, but they'll be worthy of it.
 
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12. @ Colorado +7 v Arizona State: Not a ton of analysis in this one because both teams are completely different now compared to their season long profile. This is a feel play. In a nutshell, I think Arizona State cannot cover as a 7 point road favorite in this game with Jeff Sims playing QB. They kind of surprised Iowa State on the road a couple weeks ago when Sims broke a couple of long runs, but this offense is not good with him at the helm, and that's assuming he doesn't turn the ball over like a maniac which is what his past tells us he'll do. Last week in Tempe, the Sun Devils were extremely lucky to get a win against West Virginia, winning by 2 despite getting outgained 421-330. Colorado is coming off the bye after hanging in at Morgantown when it looked like they were just a dead team walking. They finally made the move to freshman QB Julian Lewis and he delivered a very good performance, going 22-35 for 299 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. He also hooked up with Omarrion Miller(6/131, TD), their stud WR who had been floundering under the other QBs. Colorado has looked terrible at times, but Deion is 6-2 as a home dog overall, and the ASU defense has been leaky in recent weeks in their pass D.

At the beginning of the 4th quarter Colorado was down 21-17, about to go up 24-21 after a backup RB broke loose in the red zone, but then he fell down without getting touched and dropped the ball in the process, giving ASU a gift. Next play, Raleek Brown and his multiple colored mouthpieces went 88 yards like he was shot out of a cannon, and that was that. Well, they tacked on 2 more scores because the Buffs stopped caring to stop the run, but that's another story.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
9. @North Carolina +7 v Duke (BR): Duke is a team with a lot of variance attached to it. They have an offense that can go off, their defense is predicated on pressure and TFLs so they can look really good at times when you watch them. But the reality this year is that they've shit the bed when they've had any kind of opportunity to do something meaningful. I don't know where this game falls in that whole scheme of things, but they've been a pretty good bet to make things harder for themselves. In this game, as I analyze it, I see two teams that have strengths and weaknesses that pretty much match each other. Duke is good on offense and has a good passing game, but UNC gets after the QB and can cover well, and have kept teams out of the end zone, especially in the 2nd half of the season as they've settled in to young Belichick's system. Duke defense is atrocious against the pass and on a yards per play basis, but the UNC offense has been among the worst in power 4. The teams are very evenly matched. I'm getting 7 with the home team in a rivalry game and the favorite has a penchant for making head slapping plays. As Mr Burns would say when he managed the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant team of MLB ringers when he pinch hit Homer for Darryl Strawberry: "He's a righty, Strawberry...it's called 'playing the percentages'".
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I’ve loved this from jump. I’ve followed Duke for obvious reasons. I’ll grab some ML too
 
Good stuff, Br@ss. I think this is a deceptively interesting week. There are some high- pressure situations for favorites laying healthy numbers, and I'm glad to see you on the 'dog in a few of those games. I could see a noteworthy upset or two today. Good luck!
 
13. @San Diego State -11.5 v San Jose State (BR) : Late add here. The Aztecs have been awesome on defense, almost certainly the best defense in the group of 5. They rank 12th against the run in yards per carry against and even more importantly, 5th against the pass in yards per pass attempt. They've also picked off 11 passes, which is bad for SJSU QB Walker Eget who has thrown 9 of them. Eget has been good as it relates to throwing for yards, but a lot of his damage has been done against defenses nowhere near as good as SDSU's. Also, the Spartans have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, as even Nevada picked them apart last week. They rank 130th in the country in yards per pass attempt against and gave up 300+ to 5 straight opponents in conference until they played Air Force. We're not talking about Air Coryell offenses in the Mountain West either. SDSU didn't even try to throw it last week against Boise and they didn't need to, but QB Jayden Denegal does throw it deep when he throws it, so he might see some major success in this one. Even if he doesn't, the SDSU defense has been dominant in conference other than the one bad game they had on the island a couple weeks ago. I'm sure SJSU won't throw out a stinker like they did last week in their 55-10 loss at Nevada, but they are 0-5 on the road this year and have been torched by some pretty bad offenses (Wyoming, Stanford, Nevada), so I have very little doubt the Aztecs will light up the scoreboard as well, while also playing the level of defense they usually play.

SDSU gave up only a FG, and thank goodness for that because Jayden Denegal only threw it 16 times, failing to capitalize on being lined up against one of the most pathetic pass Ds in the country. All's well that ends well I guess.
 
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How bad is Ark defense? Just incredibly bad....2h over was only savior there. They can't stop a Pop Warner team....
 
Timh said:
How bad is Ark defense? Just incredibly bad....2h over was only savior there. They can't stop a Pop Warner team....
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Green getting hurt spoiled the spread bet. If he kept playing they cover even though they gave up 52.
 
5-7-1 for the week, Season total still barely over .500 at 93-92-5. A couple bad breaks but not really...just shit performances at the wrong time by some of these teams. Recaps coming.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Arkansas +8.5 @Texas: (BOL) I mean, c'mon. There's no way I'm not going to be on the Hogs here. They've covered every opportunity they've had as a road dog this year and have done so in 8 of their last 10 tries in that role. This year, despite being winless in conference, they've actually outgained their opponents in conference games. They should have no problem throwing the ball on this Texas defense, and believe it or not, I think they'll be able to put pressure on Arch Manning and I'm not convinced Texas will be able to run it on them, so it might be up to Arch to get points on the board. Hitting paydirt in the red zone has been a struggle for the Horns regardless of who they've played (80th), so we might see a gaggle of field goals from them while Arkansas scores TDs on 75% of their red zone trips. You'd wonder about Arkansas's motivation given their record, but there's no way the Hogs don't get up for Texas, one of their oldest rivals. They can drill the nail in the coffin for Texas as it relates to the playoff, and you can make the case that that's already been done, so what does Texas have to play for? Arkansas hates Texas a lot more than vice versa, I would assume. Arkansas is an auto play for me in this spot.

Texas got the best performance they'll ever get from Arch Manning, and if Taylen Green didn't get hurt they might have lost anyway. The Horns never really stopped Arkansas while Green was in there and when the backup came in they hit a 2-3 drive dryspell. He eventually figured things out too, but they certainly cover this game and stay perfect this year as a road dog if Green plays
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Gotta say you can’t be more off on Arch . He’s playing really well . Will 1000% be the Heisman favorite next year and will also be the 1 draft prospect. I’m not sure your read on him is quite accurate . I’ve randomly read a Cpl of your comments about him and it’s stuck out as an odd grudge . Best of luck
 
memphis said:
Gotta say you can’t be more off on Arch . He’s playing really well . Will 1000% be the Heisman favorite next year and will also be the 1 draft prospect. I’m not sure your read on him is quite accurate . I’ve randomly read a Cpl of your comments about him and it’s stuck out as an odd grudge . Best of luck
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The fact that he has to return to school after what can best be referred to as a turnaround season - it was awful to start given the expectations and the fact he’s been in waiting for years to come and hit the ground running. I think the sky is still the limit for him but very few players come in with 1. This hype and 2. The program having patience to roll him into the role slowly. Pretty sure that Ewers was better than him and that’s the reason he hasn’t started until this year.
 
Inspekdah said:
The fact that he has to return to school after what can best be referred to as a turnaround season - it was awful to start given the expectations and the fact he’s been in waiting for years to come and hit the ground running. I think the sky is still the limit for him but very few players come in with 1. This hype and 2. The program having patience to roll him into the role slowly. Pretty sure that Ewers was better than him and that’s the reason he hasn’t started until this year.
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yeah - I’m not arguing any of that .

He’s playing really well right now , I find it interesting people make betting decisions based on a weird bias against him and pretending that he is some sort of charity case on the field . He will be one of the best 2/3 players every time he steps on the field for the rest of his college career - not a liability
 
memphis said:
yeah - I’m not arguing any of that .

He’s playing really well right now , I find it interesting people make betting decisions based on a weird bias against him and pretending that he is some sort of charity case on the field . He will be one of the best 2/3 players every time he steps on the field for the rest of his college career - not a liability
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I appreciate your comments Memphis, but I really don't have anything against Arch. I've done some writeups where I pointed out some pretty bad performances he's had(I'm sure you saw him against Ohio State, UTEP, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, etc), but if I had a weird bias against him that I was making betting decisions based on, I would have gone against him every week, correct? I've written up pro Texas bets at least twice(lost them both) and a couple times against him, but I didn't even consider fading him in a bunch of other games this year (and they didn't cover many of them, so I probably should have). This past week I didn't think I was even that negative about him...the main reason I went against Texas was almost all pro Arkansas. I'll admit I try to be funny sometimes and maybe you could say I was a little unfair, but I think you might be a little sensitive about it. I hope he ends up the #1 pick like you say, but I'll need to see him a least carry Texas to a win against a good defense to get in that camp with you. As always, thanks for your feedback. I hope you know that I appreciate it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I appreciate your comments Memphis, but I really don't have anything against Arch. I've done some writeups where I pointed out some pretty bad performances he's had(I'm sure you saw him against Ohio State, UTEP, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, etc), but if I had a weird bias against him that I was making betting decisions based on, I would have gone against him every week, correct? I've written up pro Texas bets at least twice(lost them both) and a couple times against him, but I didn't even consider fading him in a bunch of other games this year (and they didn't cover many of them, so I probably should have). This past week I didn't think I was even that negative about him...the main reason I went against Texas was almost all pro Arkansas. I'll admit I try to be funny sometimes and maybe you could say I was a little unfair, but I think you might be a little sensitive about it. I hope he ends up the #1 pick like you say, but I'll need to see him a least carry Texas to a win against a good defense to get in that camp with you. As always, thanks for your feedback. I hope you know that I appreciate it.
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my man all good - honestly just pointing out a potential bias in thought process . If your thought process when capping is looking at the 1st 3 games as a measurement of QB play I think your off .

It may sound like it but I’m not an arch ball sack holder . Just think the pendulum has swung waaay to far. Many reasons to bet against TX( mainly terrible OL) but QB play is most certainly not it . He will be the best player on the field this wkend. They ask him to an awful lot in complex system. He’s done really well the last 4-5 wks
 
memphis said:
my man all good - honestly just pointing out a potential bias in thought process . If your thought process when capping is looking at the 1st 3 games as a measurement of QB play I think your off .

It may sound like it but I’m not an arch ball sack holder . Just think the pendulum has swung waaay to far. Many reasons to bet against TX( mainly terrible OL) but QB play is most certainly not it . He will be the best player on the field this wkend. They ask him to an awful lot in complex system. He’s done really well the last 4-5 wks
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Well Memphis, if you think 1+1 = 753 I'd think you'd be way off too. That's a straw man argument though. Good thing for both of us that neither of us thinks in those terms.

As for Arch, as I said, he's definitely gotten better. Hopefully he gets some help from that OL this week.
 
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