Week 13 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

5-6 last week, which I'll take after the 0-2 Friday night and in a week where we had to swallow that horrific San Jose State/Boise result. That brings the season total to 79-70-2. Let's see if we can get this back into double digits over a coin flip.

I'm wondering everyone's opinion on something. I used to be against an expanded playoff but I lost interest in the debate after a few years and kind of talked myself into thinking an 8 or even 12 team playoff wasn't the end of the world. Ultimately, college football doesn't really resemble the regional sport I grew up loving, so what difference did it make anyway? One thing I did think however, was that if they went to an expanded playoff, they would probably have to do away with the conference championship game cash grabs, at least among the bigger conferences that would have several at large teams making the playoff. This year, that's the Big Ten and the SEC, which it will probably be in most years. I say this because these games(at least for these conferences that don't have to play their way into the playoff) are almost certainly going to end up being burdens to play. In the SEC, if you have several teams end up 10-2, which seems very likely, why would a team like Ole Miss or Georgia, or any of them for that matter want to risk a spot in the playoff by playing another game? Sure, they might get a top 4 seed and a bye, but they also might lose and get knocked out completely and they certainly are taking a major injury risk. We've seen what a committee will do when a major injury happens(Florida State last year) and if one of those 10-2 teams has a terrible day, they might get bounced in favor of a team that didn't qualify for the title game. If you say they shouldn't get penalized for losing a game they qualified to play in(and you could be right), then there weren't any consequences for the game anyway and it was a waste of time to even play it. Let's say Indiana loses to Ohio State this week, and then Oregon gets upset by Washington, resulting in a 4 way tie between OSU/IU/PSU/ORE. Does anyone in their right mind think that Indiana or Penn State would want any part of playing that title game? They are both probably in as it stands. What if Indiana won a tiebreaker and played Oregon? What if you lose relatively convincingly and Kurtis Rourke gets hurt in the process? You are out, and if you lost the tiebreaker, you'd still be in. Ultimately I think these conferences should just use a method to declare a champion. This year in the Big Ten, Oregon is probably going to win the conference by a game and already beat the assumed #2 team Ohio State, so you don't really need a championship game. I realize that will never happen because there is too much money to be made for the TV networks, but I guarantee you, there are coaches that want no part of those games, and before long we will see load management and guys sitting them out. Maybe this year.


Sam Houston State +6.5 LOSS
Ole Miss -10.5 LOSS
Indiana +11 LOSS
Louisiana Monroe +3 LOSS
Kansas +3 WIN
Northwestern +10.5 LOSS
Kentucky +20 WIN
East Carolina +3 WIN
Louisiana Tech +23.5 WIN
Missouri -8 WIN
Army +14.5 LOSS
Vanderbilt +9 WIN
Duke +3 WIN
UCLA +5 LOSS

7-7

1. Sam Houston State +6.5 @Jacksonville State (BR) : Let's start with a CUSA barnburner!! I got burned to a crisp by RichRod and Jax State in my first write up of the season back in late August, and I've avoided their games ever since. In this case though, I'm going to fade them as a significant favorite in a game that shouldn't be lined more than a FG either way in my opinion. KC Keller is in his 11th season at SHSU, and while in the FCS ranks, all he did was win, culminating in a national championship a couple years before the Kats made the jump to FBS last year. They struggled in that first year, but here they are in year two with an 8-2 record and a game behind JSU in the conference race. They've done it with defense, and especially against the run, as no team other than UCF in week 2 has been able to manage 4 yards per carry against them. That's Jax State's MO, and I don't think they'll be able to run effectively here. Jax State also has a very porous defense, as I learned the hard way watching Ethan Vasko and Coastal Carolina carve them up in that week 1 debacle. SHSU doesn't have an explosive offense, but they should be able to move the ball on the Gamecocks, who don't rank higher than 78th in any category defensively even though they've played the 141st ranked schedule per Sagarin. Gun to my head if I had to pick a winner in this one I'd take the Bearkats, so I'll gladly take the 6. Hopefully it doesn't go to OT with Jax State getting the ball first.

This was a game between two evenly matched teams. The difference was Hunter Watson couldn't complete a pass to save his life in the 4th quarter and the SHSU kicker missed missed two sub 40 yard FGs that would have tightened up the game. Not a bad beat but this game falls within a TD spread 8 or 9 times out of 10 in my opinion.

 

[B.A.R.]

I'll say more once I get on my laptop but conference champ games need to go away.

I think once we have the new conferences in full, they'll go to 16 teams in playoffs.

That's enough extra games to make up the revenue.

I'm fine with group of 5 conference champ games.

Absolutely pointless with these unbalanced schedules in the Big Ten for example.

Oregon is in, fwiw, on every tiebreaker.


I agree with you wholeheartedly.


We're simply going to go through a handful of years where the system needs to be tinkered with until finalized how things need to be.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Ole Miss -10.5 @Florida (BR) : I have to mention just how impressive Florida has been for the better part of the season. They started horribly, embarrassing themselves in the opener against Miami and later Texas A&M, but made a nice comeback the rest of the year. They've cashed some tickets for me, and they dominated LSU in the swamp last week, beating the Tigers on the scoreboard 27-16 and thrashing them in the box score as well. I'm always looking to back them, especially in cases like this where they're a road favorite. Try as i may, however, I could not find a logical case for backing them this week, and on the contrary, I've come to the opposite conclusion. Ole Miss is currently playing like the most balanced team in the country as it relates to offense and defense. they're second in yards per play on offense, and they're 5th in yards per play on defense. To take a road underdog against a team like them, there have to be some variables in place, namely, the favorite needs to be disinterested and the atmosphere needs to be electric. I actually don't think either of those things will happen. Ole Miss cannot slip up, as their playoff hopes cannot sustain a 3rd loss, and I don't know that the atmosphere will be as wild as it could be since there's a noon kickoff in this one. Ole Miss's offense has been rolling with Dart, but they get good news with Tre Harris back. He is the nation's leader in yards per route run, and was a huge part of their offense when he was in there. When he went out, a happy occurrence came about because they had to develop some other players, especially Cayden Lee and Jordan Watkins at wide receiver. The Florida defense is not ranked highly and their secondary is completely banged up. They limited LSU to 4 yards per play but they were out there a long time. The Florida defense, despite improvement, still ranks in the high 80's in pass defense and 3rd down conversions. I think Dart will have little resistance in this one. On offense, DJ Lagway has been good, but primarily on deep routes. Ole Miss's pass rush is elite, tops in the country, so Lagway probably won't have time to wait for the downfield routes, and you cannot run on them. I also think Kiffin will be trying to score as much as possible for style points. Florida has been very good, but this is just shaping up to be a nice matchup for Ole Miss.

You have to tip your cap to Florida. Again, I wanted to find a reason to take them in this game, but they had so many situational things going against them that I couldn't. They are now bowl eligible against that schedule. Amazing. I already grabbed -13.5 next week against FSU. 464-345 yard edge for Ole Miss, but Florida was fine with that...Lagway averaged 10 yards per pass attempt. It was an even game, Florida just allowed the environment to get to Ole Miss and they crumbled. I thought Ole Miss was going to score at will on the Gators. That did not happen.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

I'll say more once I get on my laptop but conference champ games need to go away.

I think once we have the new conferences in full, they'll go to 16 teams in playoffs.

That's enough extra games to make up the revenue.

I'm fine with group of 5 conference champ games.

Absolutely pointless with these unbalanced schedules in the Big Ten for example.

Oregon is in, fwiw, on every tiebreaker.


I agree with you wholeheartedly.


We're simply going to go through a handful of years where the system needs to be tinkered with until finalized how things need to be.

Agree with most of this and Br@ss' OP (esp that revenue is at the heart of it, and conf title games are primarily still here because of that and arguably not necessary in the CFP era). I'll miss conference title games a little, but not a huge deal, and the injury point is huge (another reason I'm anti-CFP). I'm against playoff expansion but I'm also the outlier who preferred the BCS to the current structure, so I know I'm in the minority. (Reason I'm against expansion is that it would remove byes which I think are the best incentive to play out the entire schedule at full strength rather than resting guys like the NFL) I think that the powers that be are misguided and trying to NFL-ize a sport that I find far superior to the NFL, but hey, it's their sport, they can dilute it however they want. I'll still be watching and they want a bigger tent so that my wife wants to come down to the basement on Saturday to see how her fantasy team is doing. Hurray?

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Indiana +11(-115) @Ohio State (BOL) : Indiana is 10-0, but if you listen to the college football media, they've played the worst schedule imaginable and anything they've accomplished in the way of results is worth nothing because they haven't played the right teams. If I hear one more sports betting aficionado refer to their power ratings, and how they only have Indiana "power rated" a point ahead of Florida or the same as Kansas, I'm going to throw something. Apparently, the fact that they didn't blitzkrieg Michigan and actually struggled for the first time all season for a handful of minutes means that they shouldn't even bother stepping onto the field against God's gift to coaching Ryan Day and the 20 million dollar Buckeyes. Cignetti and his staff have been listening to this for two weeks and have had that time for their guys to get healthy and implement a plan to face an Ohio State team who by the way has played the #61 rated schedule according to Sagarin, only a few spots better than that joke of a schedule Indiana played(#77). Meanwhile, Ohio State's offensive line, which managed 64 yards on 31 carries 3 weeks ago against Nebraska, is now without their center Seth McLaughlin, who quarterbacks their line and makes blocking calls for Will Howard. Indiana, in case you haven't noticed ranks 2nd in the country in stopping the run(and grades out 3rd per PFF) and also ranks 4th in the country in pass rush grading. I'd also suggest that if people think Ohio State is going to just line up and blow the Hoosiers off the line of scrimmage, why didn't they do that to Nebraska, who played them to the final whistle? That's the same Nebraska team, by the way that got wrecked and obliterated from jump street in Bloomington. Kurtis Rourke is healthy, and frankly I like him better than Howard. I also like Cignetti better than the Satanic Rodent slinking around on the Ohio State sideline. Obviously, there is much better talent on the Ohio State side, and I see some advantages for Ohio State, but there are no teams, Ohio State included, that I feel are head and shoulders above everyone else in college football this year. Indiana will have trouble covering Jeremiah Smith, Egbuka, Carnell Tate, Randy Moss Jr, who is bigger and faster than his Dad, Hopalong Cassidy's grandson and whoever else is lurking on Ohio State's 4th string, but I think Indiana can hang in the trenches with Ohio State and the Buckeye secondary is going to have a hard time covering Surratt and Cooper too. Indiana has been too good this year to just assume they'll get run off the field because they had one questionable half. I'll take the points in this one.

I wanted to pummel that weak candy ass punter for blowing the game for IU, but then the doofus who went in like a bat out of hell on the punt return took his place. Those two plays were the biggest plays of the game. OSU went from tied to up 14 without really having to run a play. After that, al they did was send people on Rourke and IU couldn't figure it out. Also, the mere sight of Ryan Day makes me projectile vomit. In all seriousness, this was a bad call, but that fumbled punt at the end of the half completely changed the game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Agree with most of this and Br@ss' OP (esp that revenue is at the heart of it, and conf title games are primarily still here because of that and arguably not necessary in the CFP era). I'll miss conference title games a little, but not a huge deal, and the injury point is huge (another reason I'm anti-CFP). I'm against playoff expansion but I'm also the outlier who preferred the BCS to the current structure, so I know I'm in the minority. (Reason I'm against expansion is that it would remove byes which I think are the best incentive to play out the entire schedule at full strength rather than resting guys like the NFL) I think that the powers that be are misguided and trying to NFL-ize a sport that I find far superior to the NFL, but hey, it's their sport, they can dilute it however they want. I'll still be watching and they want a bigger tent so that my wife wants to come down to the basement on Saturday to see how her fantasy team is doing. Hurray?

I couldn't agree more with this Biff, especially the point about NFL-izing college football. Any argument based on "the NFL does it" is an automatic reason to be skeptical of it in my opinion.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Louisiana Monroe +3.5(-120) @Arkansas State (BOL) : This one isn't a super complicated handicap for me. I think La Mo is a better team than Arky State, they've played a tougher schedule and they have all the motivation. They have a chance to go to a bowl for only the second time in program history, and this is the best chance they are going to have, since they play LaLa next week. Offensively, the Warhawks aren't great, but they can run the ball and Arky State can't stop the run to save their lives. Defensively, there's nothing that Arkansas State does well. They don't stop the run, they can't cover anyone, they rank 128th on 3rd down and they get no pressure on the quarterback. On the flip side, La Mo has been pretty solid on defense, especially especially against the pass. Arkansas State already has 6 wins, so they're bowl eligible, so I don't think they need this one as much as Monroe does. I also like Bryan Vincent as a coach...anyone who has been influenced by Bill Clark I will trust with my money. I'll take the 3.5 here, as it's not cost prohibitive.

LaMo outgained them 391-345, outgained them on a per play basis, and generally were the better team all day, but they had two turnovers to none for Arky State. The biggest play of the game was a bullshit roughing the passer penalty with 7 minutes left in the game on a 3rd and 9 that kept the drive alive and was immediately followed by the TD pass that was the margin of victory for Arky State. Tough loss for the WarHawks and me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Kansas +3(-116) v Colorado (BR) : This game is at Arrowhead Stadium. Colorado has been really good this year, and props must be delivered to Coach Prime. They've covered 8 in a row, but although I hate to say it, they've been pretty fortunate in the timing of who they played. They were extremely lucky to beat Baylor, obviously, since they needed a Hail Mary to just make it to overtime. Their other wins were at UCF when UCF was completely lost and still hadn't moved off the disinterested KJ Jefferson, Arizona, Cincinnati and Texas Tech, who they caught in a great spot coming off a huge win over Iowa State the week before. You can make a case that Kansas is playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 now, as they are coming off a win at BYU in a game they didn't even play all that well. The Matchup is a good one for Kansas. They struggle defensively against the run, but Colorado doesn't even try to run the ball. If you can't rush the passer, you're going to have a long day against the Buffs, but KU has gotten to the QB quite a bit this year, ranking 37th in sack rate. They also have two very good cover corners who will probably both play in the NFL, so they should be able to hold their own against Hunter and Wester. On the flip side, Kansas is very balanced and Jalon Daniels is playing as well as he has all year. The Colorado defense is probably the most improved single unit in the country considering where they were last year, but this Kansas offense is better than everyone they've played recently. I rate these two teams as a virtual dead heat, with Colorado being overdue for a loss. I'll definitely take the 3 with the home team in that scenario.

Took awhile to cash a ticket, but the Jayhawks obliged for the third week in a row. I think they're the only sub .500 team in the last 50 years or something to knock off three ranked teams in successive weeks. 522-309 yard edge for Kansas, and a 333-43 edge on the ground. Definitely the right side.

 

[PNGFROM2003]

I'll say more once I get on my laptop but conference champ games need to go away.

I think once we have the new conferences in full, they'll go to 16 teams in playoffs.

That's enough extra games to make up the revenue.

I'm fine with group of 5 conference champ games.

Absolutely pointless with these unbalanced schedules in the Big Ten for example.

Oregon is in, fwiw, on every tiebreaker.


I agree with you wholeheartedly.


We're simply going to go through a handful of years where the system needs to be tinkered with until finalized how things need to be.

Apologies for doing my whining here Brass. Just want to point out to BAR that part of that tinkering needs to be the elimination of bidding wars MLB Yankee style that have ruined the sport entirely. Portnoy, BAR and Michigan and their lifetime blackhole of Les Miles esque offenses are going to waste and ruin Underwood but he’ll have an early payday. Once he transfers to Ohio State and destroys them all will be back in balance in the world. Yeah FRICK Big Blue! Another title awaits in 2084 or however long it takes between titles in the land of red headed step childom. Rant Over. Geaux Buck Eyes! Lol. All meant in jest but times are tough in Baton Rouge thanks to the wrong coach from far too north for my liking. Saban was a Unicorn.

 

[bones]

I do not want to jinx you...let's just say that I know a guy that has these same wagers. Best of fortune

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

Agree with most of this and Br@ss' OP (esp that revenue is at the heart of it, and conf title games are primarily still here because of that and arguably not necessary in the CFP era). I'll miss conference title games a little, but not a huge deal, and the injury point is huge (another reason I'm anti-CFP). I'm against playoff expansion but I'm also the outlier who preferred the BCS to the current structure, so I know I'm in the minority. (Reason I'm against expansion is that it would remove byes which I think are the best incentive to play out the entire schedule at full strength rather than resting guys like the NFL) I think that the powers that be are misguided and trying to NFL-ize a sport that I find far superior to the NFL, but hey, it's their sport, they can dilute it however they want. I'll still be watching and they want a bigger tent so that my wife wants to come down to the basement on Saturday to see how her fantasy team is doing. Hurray?

VERY well put by Br@ss, B. A. R. and Biff. It's a bit comforting to know others are just as wary of where this is headed- and where it's already gone- as I am. I also saw this week that Kiffin competently articulated some of the points Br@ss made about the title games. Some coaches are already aware of the net- negative result of the risk/ reward calculation.
Go get 'em this week, Br@ss!

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Northwestern +10.5 @Michigan (BOL) : if either of these offenses crack more than about 275 yards in this game, I'll be surprised. Michigan hasn't beaten anybody by margin other than Fresno in their opener, and in that game they got a late pick 6 to take is to the final number of 20. Since then, they've won by 10, 3, 3, and 7 and lost the rest of their games. Even with Arkansas State, a team with one of the worst defenses in the country and an offense that ranks outside the top 100 in every conceivable category, they only won by 10. Northwestern has a defense that ranks either as well or better than teams that have had no problem keeping the Wolverines off the scoreboard for the most part. The Cats defense has been solid, but their best attribute is their run defense. If Michigan is going to put up any significant points in this game, it will have to be via the pass, and this team has not demonstrated the ability to do that. If the Cats can avoid having points scored on their offense, I think they can play good enough defense to where one TD should be able to keep them under the number. There isn't much evidence that the Cats offense will be able to do much of anything against this Michigan defense, but Northwestern has every edge when the Cats are on defense. All but 3 defenses have held Michigan under 300 yards, and one of the ones that didn't held Michigan to 7 total points. In this day and age, it really isn't asking much to crack 10 points. Some offenses do that pretty much by accident. If the Cats can do that this week, I would like their chances very much to cover this number.

Well, the Cats got 6. So the didn't cover. Oh yeah, Michigan got 50. A little off on that one. Man I missed bad on my losses this week, didn't I? The score was a little overboard based on how Michigan played (396 yards), but the two main RBs Mullings and Edwards ran for 7 yards a carry combined on 25 carries. The Cats weren't in this one. I forced this one, just like I forced Army and Indiana.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I do not want to jinx you...let's just say that I know a guy that has these same wagers. Best of fortune

Good Luck to US Bones

 

[Br@ssknux]

Apologies for doing my whining here Brass. Just want to point out to BAR that part of that tinkering needs to be the elimination of bidding wars MLB Yankee style that have ruined the sport entirely. Portnoy, BAR and Michigan and their lifetime blackhole of Les Miles esque offenses are going to waste and ruin Underwood but he’ll have an early payday. Once he transfers to Ohio State and destroys them all will be back in balance in the world. Yeah FRICK Big Blue! Another title awaits in 2084 or however long it takes between titles in the land of red headed step childom. Rant Over. Geaux Buck Eyes! Lol. All meant in jest but times are tough in Baton Rouge thanks to the wrong coach from far too north for my liking. Saban was a Unicorn.

Considering recent events, no need to apologize PNG

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Kentucky +20 @Texas (BOL) : I think this is going to be flat spot for Texas as they have a huge game next week with Texas A&M that will pretty much decide their fate for the college football playoff. Many people have said this, but it is very hard to find genuinely impressive efforts from Texas this year. They have the #1 defense statistically, but only 3 teams on their schedule rank within the top 50 in yards per play. Georgia is the only ranked team that they've played, and they were run out of their own stadium by that Dawgs team that has had it's own problems offensively. Texas has been ok on offense, but now they face a Kentucky team that is more than capable of having a dominant defensive performance, despite their recent run of mediocrity. They've been terrible against the pass in their season long numbers, but they've been hit hard by injuries and look to be as healthy as they have ben in awhile coming off their de facto bye week. They've already completely shut down Georgia and Ole Miss, in what was by far Ole Miss's worst offensive game of the season, so we know the Wildcats have it in them. Offensively, Kentucky is no better than the other scrub offenses that Texas has faced, but if they can catch Texas napping, they might be able to put some points on the board, and we only need them to be somewhere within shouting distance of the Longhorns here. I think Kentucky will have a spirited effort as they are in spoiler mode and got some good momentum with a laugher last week against Murray State. The Wildcats have the pedigree to put the screws to Texas with their talented front 7, several of which will be playing on Sundays in the near future. 20 is a lot of points here.

This went about how I thought. Kentucky isn't a serious threat to win a game like this at this point, but they mucked things up enough to where Texas couldn't really blow them out and they didn't care to anyway.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. East Carolina +3(-115) @North Texas(BR) : Follow at your own risk on this one because I think I'm 0 for the season in my attempts to figure out the Mean Green. UNT certainly has been good on offense this year, but in the past couple of weeks things have looked decidedly off-kilter for Chandler Morris, so much so that we have to wonder if he is not injured. He was horrific in the Army game that I've been crying out for 3 weeks now, and he was perhaps worse last week against a UTSA pass defense that came into the game ranked 123rd in yards per attempt against. In that game he was 21/36 for 241 yards 1 TD and 2 picks, which is certainly not a good performance against a shit pass defense like the Roadrunners. Luckily for UNT, they ran the ball so well that they were able to compete but they ended up falling 48-27 because their defense gave up almost 500 yards of total offense to Josh Mc Cown's kid at QB for UTSA. This week they are playing an ECU team that is much better on defense, and can definitely stand up to the run offense of the Mean Green as they grade out as the 12th best run defense in the country per PFF. Offensively, since they made the full time switch to Katin Houser, they've been dynamite, averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game, and the Mean Green defense is statistically the worst defense of the group that Houser has played against. I would have made ECU the favorite in this one, even though it's in Denton, given how Morris has looked and how well the ECU offense matches up against this putrid Mean Green defense.

Slow start for ECU offensively, but once they got things cranked up in the second half, it was lights out for the Mean Green. ECU had 200 yards in the first half and had zero points to show for it until about the final play of the half. After that the roof caved in on NT. ECU had 127 penalty yards to just 29 for North Texas and still won by 12.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Louisiana Tech +23.5 @Arkansas: (BOL) :The Hogs need this game badly for bowl eligibility, but my goodness have they been bad in this situation, having gone 3-8 as a home favorite since 2022. At the beginning f the year I was looking for every reason to fade Sonny Cumbie and La Tech, and took a couple opportunities early, but the Bulldogs have been very much improved over the course of the year, especially on defense. They've played an easy schedule, but they hung tough early with NC State on the road and are coming off a game at Western Kentucky in which they held the Hilltopper offense, which is no joke under Caden Veltkamp, to 7 points and only 215 total yards. For the year, the Bulldog defense is ranked 20th in overall yards per play, 17th in yards per carry against, and 32nd in yards per pass attempt. I also think that Bulldog QB Evan Bullock will have success against the #108 yards per pass attempt defense in Arkansas. Bullock has been a revelation since he took over for Jack Turner earlier this year, notching a 12/2 ratio and almost 8 yards per attempt. I'm sure this will be a step up for the Bulldogs, especially Taylen Green and Jaquinden Jackson for the Hogs who figure to get their fair share of big plays, but this La Tech squad is not pushover. I'll take the 23.5 here, and if you're patient, you might be able to get 24 or more.

LT wasn't great in the game, but they were good enough. Arkansas was never covering in the game and scored late to get it to 21, so this one wasn't really in doubt. Hogs are not good in this situation. They got bowl eligible with this win though, so congrats to Sammy Pittman.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Missouri -8 @MIssissippi State (BR) : Missouri burned me last week when Brady Cook played when I foolishly didn't even consider that he would. I'm changing my tune this week based on a number of factors, but probably the biggest reason is that Missouri is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite since she joined Toyota, and Mississippi State has been completely unable to cover as a home dog. The Bulldogs are 0-10-1 as a conference home dog since 2019. Missouri also has strong edges over the Bulldogs both when they have the ball and also when they're on defense. The Tigers didn't pull off the DD win at South Carolina last week, but they looked about as good as they've looked in awhile and resembled the outfit of last year offensively. Luther Burden caught 8 balls and they finally got some production out of the running game as Nate Noel picked up 130 yards rushing against that defense. They have a huge drop in class this week in Starkville, and they are likely to stymie Mississippi State all day on 3rd down as they rank 5th in that category on defense while the Bulldogs predictably struggled to convert all year. Mizzou was effectively eliminated from the playoff with their loss last week, but they were never seriously in it, so they will be able to pivot on focusing on qualifying for a good bowl game. Mizzou has been bit of a disappointment, but they are still miles better than Mississippi State, which makes this line look a bit short to me.

Didn't pay much attention to this one, but Missouri could score whenever they felt like it. There's a video of Drinkwitz telling some Mississippi State players that too if you look for it. This was the right side.

 

[jimmymo]

GL this weekend Knux -- get it

 

[Br@ssknux]

Will have a few more tomorrow AM. Hopefully these lines will not go too nutso. Hoping for some movement in my direction also.

 

[B.A.R.]

Apologies for doing my whining here Brass. Just want to point out to BAR that part of that tinkering needs to be the elimination of bidding wars MLB Yankee style that have ruined the sport entirely. Portnoy, BAR and Michigan and their lifetime blackhole of Les Miles esque offenses are going to waste and ruin Underwood but he’ll have an early payday. Once he transfers to Ohio State and destroys them all will be back in balance in the world. Yeah FRICK Big Blue! Another title awaits in 2084 or however long it takes between titles in the land of red headed step childom. Rant Over. Geaux Buck Eyes! Lol. All meant in jest but times are tough in Baton Rouge thanks to the wrong coach from far too north for my liking. Saban was a Unicorn.

You do know that this wasn't Portnoy, right?

3rd richest guy in the world's wife went to UM. That's where this traction started.

Hometown boy staying home.

Also, Sherrone more isn't a "manball" coach.

You'll be shocked the next 5-6 years at the offense being ran in A2.

And Bryce will never transfer to OSU lol. Maybe LSU a few years down the line

He was always UM or SEC. That was it.

 

[B.A.R.]

8. East Carolina +3(-115) @North Texas(BR) : Follow at your own risk on this one because I think I'm 0 for the season in my attempts to figure out the Mean Green. UNT certainly has been good on offense this year, but in the past couple of weeks things have looked decidedly off-kilter for Chandler Morris, so much so that we have to wonder if he is not injured. He was horrific in the Army game that I've been crying out for 3 weeks now, and he was perhaps worse last week against a UTSA pass defense that came into the game ranked 123rd in yards per attempt against. In that game he was 21/36 for 241 yards 1 TD and 2 picks, which is certainly not a good performance against a shit pass defense like the Roadrunners. Luckily for UNT, they ran the ball so well that they were able to compete but they ended up falling 48-27 because their defense gave up almost 500 yards of total offense to Josh Mc Cown's kid at QB for UTSA. This week they are playing an ECU team that is much better on defense, and can definitely stand up to the run offense of the Mean Green as they grade out as the 12th best run defense in the country per PFF. Offensively, since they made the full time switch to Katin Houser, they've been dynamite, averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game, and the Mean Green defense is statistically the worst defense of the group that Houser has played against. I would have made ECU the favorite in this one, even though it's in Denton, given how Morris has looked and how well the ECU offense matches up against this putrid Mean Green defense.

UNT defense is sooooo bad. So bad.

ECU should control the ball just like Navy and UTSA have the last few weeks v

 

[B.A.R.]

Have a great Saturday Brass.

Your card is shaping up nicely!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Have a great Saturday Brass.

Your card is shaping up nicely!!

Thanks as always BAR. Always appreciate your input. BOL to you too!

 

[inZane]

UNT defense is sooooo bad. So bad.

ECU should control the ball just like Navy and UTSA have the last few weeks v

Yeah, NT's D sux , but they need one more win to become bowl eligible.

And EC is a paltry 3-14 ats last road games.

Maybe an over, or EC tt over 34*?

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Army +14.5(-116) v Notre Dame (BR) : Definitely wanted more than 2 TDs in this one. Would not take less I don't think. I think a lot of people are looking at navy's game with ND and assuming that the Cadets are going to suffer the same fate that the Middies did, but I don't think those two teams are as similar as most people think. Neither team runs as much triple option as people think.Army actually uses a lot of inside and outside Zone schemes and basically uses Bryson Daily as a running back...straight runs with no option. In that game in which ND ran Navy out of the Meadowlands, the Mids famously coughed it up 6 times. If that happens to Army, this whole write up is a waste of time and we'll all turn the game off in the first 10 minutes. Like Army, Navy came into the ND game undefeated and with a strength of schedule worse than a host of FCS teams. However, we knew that Navy's defense was a mess, with alarming box scores all over their record. That's not the case for Army. Even schedule adjusted measures have Army's defense ranked positively, and their raw numbers are top 10 in most categories. Frankly, their profile reminds me very much of Northern Illinois defensively. Offensively, Army has been extremely efficient, and they are slow, obviously, as is Notre Dame. Both teams are going to want to run the ball, and that will limit possessions. Also, although ND has built up a pretty impressive statistical profile, it has come against a laughable slate of opponents, especially considering what we usually see from ND. Since the loss to NIU, they've played Purdue, Miami(OH), Louisville(who outgained them by 100+ yards and puked the game away), Stanford, Georgia Tech(without King, and with a QB we subsequently learned from his VT performance is among the most unserious quarterbacks in college football), the aforementioned Navy game in which they were given 6 turnovers, Virginia, and the worst team in the power 4, Florida State. So they've pulverized those teams. Ok. With the resolve of Army, who is probably playing in their most impactful non-Navy game in a half century and the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace, ND will have to dominate this game or get a massive amount of turnovers to cover this. I think it'll be a competitive game, so I'll take the points.


See the bolded portion. ND DOMINATED this game. Those who took the Occam's razor approach of, "ND is bigger and faster and Army can't stop them because they are puny" were absolutely correct. 10.08 yards per play for ND vs 3.47 for Army. This was not a good call, and I should have known.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Yeah, NT's D sux , but they need one more win to become bowl eligible.

And EC is a paltry 3-14 ats last road games.

Maybe an over, or EC tt over 34*?

I'm showing ECU to be 11-9 in their last 20 ATS on the road?

 

[Br@ssknux]

More in a bit

 

[Timh]

Brass BOL today, like a lot of your card. Do you have any opinion on UCF/WV? I'm sitting on WV RSW bet over 6.5 and hoping maybe WV can get an early lead and I may be able to get UCF either as dog or pick live. WV pass defense is so bad that I just can't see them winning this game?

 

[Br@ssknux]

VERY well put by Br@ss, B. A. R. and Biff. It's a bit comforting to know others are just as wary of where this is headed- and where it's already gone- as I am. I also saw this week that Kiffin competently articulated some of the points Br@ss made about the title games. Some coaches are already aware of the net- negative result of the risk/ reward calculation.
Go get 'em this week, Br@ss!

Always appreciate your input SPRD! Not surprised you’re on the “right” side of this, LOL

 

[bones]

More in a bit

I will be curious to see if you have anything on Pitt v Ville or Stanford v Cal. I have a lean in both games but have not bet them yet, if at all.

Whatever games you select, your analysis is always great

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah, NT's D sux , but they need one more win to become bowl eligible.

And EC is a paltry 3-14 ats last road games.

Maybe an over, or EC tt over 34*?

ECU TT for sure

 

[inZane]

I'm showing ECU to be 11-9 in their last 20 ATS on the road?

I apologize if that's bad data, I was just posting what Playbook's write up on the game was.

"Considering ECU is just 3-14 ATS in Last Road Games, including 0-9 ATS when coming off a win, the Denton gang should tap into some Last Home Game fan energy to prevail on the scoreboard. As far as covering the spread, we’re content to sit on the sidelines and just watch this back-and-forth affair."

 

[HUNT]

Apologies for doing my whining here Brass. Just want to point out to BAR that part of that tinkering needs to be the elimination of bidding wars MLB Yankee style that have ruined the sport entirely. Portnoy, BAR and Michigan and their lifetime blackhole of Les Miles esque offenses are going to waste and ruin Underwood but he’ll have an early payday. Once he transfers to Ohio State and destroys them all will be back in balance in the world. Yeah FRICK Big Blue! Another title awaits in 2084 or however long it takes between titles in the land of red headed step childom. Rant Over. Geaux Buck Eyes! Lol. All meant in jest but times are tough in Baton Rouge thanks to the wrong coach from far too north for my liking. Saban was a Unicorn.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I apologize if that's bad data, I was just posting what Playbook's write up on the game was.

"Considering ECU is just 3-14 ATS in Last Road Games, including 0-9 ATS when coming off a win, the Denton gang should tap into some Last Home Game fan energy to prevail on the scoreboard. As far as covering the spread, we’re content to sit on the sidelines and just watch this back-and-forth affair."

Oh I see, in their LAST road game of the year. Got it, you weren't wrong. Playbook is great at the super specific, but mostly meaningless trends. "They're 3-9 in their last 12 in which they were coming off a win with revenge when the opponent had a .433 win percentage or better, averaged less then 21 PPG and had a bye two weeks later."

Don't get me wrong, it's a great read and I love Marc Lawrence. hose are just funny sometimes.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I will be curious to see if you have anything on Pitt v Ville or Stanford v Cal. I have a lean in both games but have not bet them yet, if at all.

Whatever games you select, your analysis is always great

I don't want to bet Pitt as a road dog because they've been terrible in that role, (failed to cover 6 of last 7) but I don't want to lay that much with Louisville because I think Pitt's defense is good enough to keep it close. No lay there.

All the numbers in the second game scream Cal, but who wants to lay double digits with them? Not me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass BOL today, like a lot of your card. Do you have any opinion on UCF/WV? I'm sitting on WV RSW bet over 6.5 and hoping maybe WV can get an early lead and I may be able to get UCF either as dog or pick live. WV pass defense is so bad that I just can't see them winning this game?

As unreliable as UCF has been, they certainly can lose this game. They've been so weak minded all year. However, Rizk has looked good and you're right...it's just a fact of life at this point that West Virginia can't cover anyone. My numbers lean UCF but I can't trust them to win a game like that. Would not lay points with them. But as you mention, your hedge would be on UCF.

If you can hedge WV win total with a UCF +$ bet, I would definitely do it if you get a chance.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Vandy +9 @LSU (BOL) : This isn't a great spot for Vandy in my opinion, with LSU coming off a bad loss to Florida and being at the absolute bottom of their market, but Vandy as a road dog with Pavia is a must play at this point, especially with the current state of the LSU offense. 90 plays last week, averaging 4 yards per play? Nussmeier has killed me twice and looked horrific. Can he figure it out against a resourceful Vandy defense? Maybe, but I'm betting it doesn't come with margin. Vandy should be able to throw it on LSU with Stowers getting open and Vandy has been efficient on 3rd down all year, which should allow them to sustain drives in this one. Now that it's gotten clear of 8, it's worth a play in my opinion.

Got a little fortunate on this one with a late Pavia rushing TD. Nussmeier naturally remembered how to throw the ball, but we still snuck the cover out. LSU had it in the red zone late but ended up just running out the clock.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Duke +3 v Virginia Tech (BOL) : After watching Virginia Tech try to play offense 2 weeks ago against Clemson with a less than 100% Drones and Tuten, I was pretty convinced that if VT doesn't have those two running on all cylinders, they can't move the ball at all. Both were completely useless in that game, clearly not 100%. This week they are both questionable again, and they'll be facing a Duke defense that has been strong all year. They are good on 3rd down especially, and if Drones isn't able to scramble for 1st downs, VT is i trouble. The Duke offense is also a pretty good matchup for the VT defense because the Hokies rely so much on their pass rush to get stops and Duke does a great job of protecting QB Murphy. Duke has a nice collection of receivers, most notably Moore and Panchol, and they are good enough to have success against the VT secondary. Duke has been a good dog this year, I think it continues as their defense is likely to keep them within striking distance of the outright win even if things go poorly for them on offense.

Good win for Duke. Drones didn't play and the backup Schlee got knocked out too. Blue Devils have been very resourceful and hit big plays all day on the Hokies to get most of their points. Duke outgained them on a per play basis 6.94 to 4.74.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @UCLA +5 v USC (BOL) : Even though I show USC to have some edges in the numbers, and even though the game is just across town, I can't miss an opportunity to fade the Trojans as a road favorite. They are 0-4 this year and lost outright in all 4, and I think UCLA is playing as well, if not better than the teams that have already beaten USC. The Bruins have played a gauntlet of a schedule, ranked 2nd in the country, so there's no way they would be impressed by whatever USC is throwing out there. I like Jordan Maiava, but he's very turnover prone, and UCLA has been resourceful lately on defense. Also, Chase Garbers has been very good in the passing game lately and USC's secondary has been suspect as always with their tackling. UCLA is also very stout against the run, so it's going to be Maiava who will have to deliver a win here, and I'm not sure he's capable. I'll take the points with the Bruins here, and make USC prove it to me.

This was a tough beat. UCLA was up late into the 4th quarter only have have a roughing the passer penalty extend the go ahead TD drive. Then UCLA couldn't get a first down from that point, including getting stopped on downs late in their own end which allowed the game covering FG with 2 minutes left. They still had a chance to win against that USC defense, but Garbers threw 4 straight incompletions.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Some I considered:

Air Force has been a different team over the past few weeks as Calhoun inevitably was going to get things figured out. Reno a tough place to play though

It's kicked off already but I still am not quite sure how I failed to write up fading FIU as an almost double digit favorite. Kennesaw even played pretty good last week too!

Considered that Oklahoma might come up with a good performance as a 2 TD dog at home but their offense would need to score a couple TDs to cover that and I don't have faith that they can.

I had Auburn as the better team against A&M, and the Aggies are in a big look ahead, but who can trust Auburn to actually win a tight game? Not me.

Penn State has been money as a road dog, especially in this spread neighborhood, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. I could see Minnesota having a nice effort off the bye after that stinker at Rutgers.

Hope everybody has a great week!

 

[He Hate Me]

13. @Duke +3 v Virginia Tech (BOL) : After watching Virginia Tech try to play offense 2 weeks ago against Clemson with a less than 100% Drones and Tuten, I was pretty convinced that if VT doesn't have those two running on all cylinders, they can't move the ball at all. Both were completely useless in that game, clearly not 100%. This week they are both questionable again, and they'll be facing a Duke defense that has been strong all year. They are good on 3rd down especially, and if Drones isn't able to scramble for 1st downs, VT is i trouble. The Duke offense is also a pretty good matchup for the VT defense because the Hokies rely so much on their pass rush to get stops and Duke does a great job of protecting QB Murphy. Duke has a nice collection of receivers, most notably Moore and Panchol, and they are good enough to have success against the VT secondary. Duke has been a good dog this year, I think it continues as their defense is likely to keep them within striking distance of the outright win even if things go poorly for them on offense.

Best guess is Drones does not play and Tuten does, but not 100%. The backup RB Thomas is out.

 

[He Hate Me]

Drones is out.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7-7 day. Coin flip Man returns. Too bad UCLA couldn't show some competence late, but alas. I'll have recaps on the posts with the plays soon.