Week 13 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
First of all, my condolences to family and loved ones of Fondy. He certainly gave us all a great environment to do whatever it is we do here. Rest In Peace.


6-5 record last week after a 9-5 initial week in week 11, so my record here is 15-10 (.600). It's profitable if not spectacular. On to this week.


1. East Carolina +14(-120) @UConn: If you would have told me a month ago that I'd be laying 14 points on the road at any point this year with ECU, I would have politely asked you to seek professional help. 4 weeks later, here we are, and I'm sprinting to the window to take advantage of a rare instance to lay a reasonable number against UConn. Despite a couple decent performances as a home dog this year(most recently a short 24-17 loss to Houston) the Huskies are 5-15 ATS at home in their last 20 and have reverted back to their normal role of getting drilled on the field and on the stat sheet after a brief respite against UMass and the aforementioned Houston game. On the contrary, during that time, ECU has played their best ball of the year, outgaining Cincinnati(severely) and SMU in back to back weeks. Unfortunately, those efforts didn't result in wins, but they'll be hungry for it this week and will likely be rewarded. QB Holton Ahlers has thrown for a combined 1033 yards and 10 TDs IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS and these performances have not been against pushovers (Cincy and their 27th ranked pass D and SMU, who was ranked 53rd before Ahlers got a crack at them). Now Ahlers gets to tee it up against this UCONN defense((122nd in passing yards per attempt against), a squad that ECU outgained 657-274 last year. ECU has covered 5 of their last 6 and are on a positive roll to finish out the year. Like I said, if I can even mildly justify a play against UConn at a reasonable number, I'm going to jump at it, and you can make a great case here.
 
2. Minnesota -13.5 @Northwestern: We all know the Cats have been putrid on offense this year, but another thing they've been bad at is covering numbers, which is rare for Pat Fitzgerald and company over the past decade or so. They are a prolific covering team when dogged, but specifically as a road dog. At home, it's another story, especially this year. Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa have all covered in Evanston in rocking chair fashion, each by double digits, and as long as Tanner Morgan plays and throws the ball more than about a dozen times, nothing should change. Minnesota still has their goals in front of them, as winning out likely puts them in position for the playoff even with a loss, and a weak effort against Northwestern would put all of that in peril, so I doubt we'll see a letdown. Also, the fundamental matchups in this one, especially between the Minny defense and that Wildcat offense are borderline laughable. I still believe Minny is undervalued, believe it or not.
 
3. Boston College +21(-120) @ Notre Dame: ND certainly throttled me last week when they embarrassed the Naval Academy, but I can't resist going against them again here. BC still has a shot at bowl eligibility, and they always get up for their battles with their Catholic brethren. In the last 15 meetings, only once has BC failed to stay within this number(20 actually), and among BC squads, this one is among the most capable offensively. Defensively is another story, and I expect ND to move the ball pretty much throughout the game, but BC should have the edge in the running game as ND has been gashed more than once on the ground this year. Also, the theme of these ND home games this year has been turnovers, as they scored twice on defense for all intents and purposes when they covered against Virginia and Navy was coughing it up the entire first half last week, leading to lightning fast ND touchdowns. BC has the second fewest turnovers by their offense in the country this year, so ND is likely to have to earn their points this week. If Dillon can get rolling on the ground for BC, similarly to how Louisville and Michigan did in previous endeavors against the Irish, this could be a tough number to beat.
 
Crazy how often we line up. I played gophers -12.5 right out the gates. Hoping qb ok.

Pretty sure I’ll def end up on BC as well. Against Irish and off bye they have a great track record.
 
I’m guessing you post bout 6 more the ones I lean strongest. Lol. Looking forward to it. Enjoy your write ups.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Minnesota -13.5 @Northwestern: We all know the Cats have been putrid on offense this year, but another thing they've been bad at is covering numbers, which is rare for Pat Fitzgerald and company over the past decade or so. They are a prolific covering team when dogged, but specifically as a road dog. At home, it's another story, especially this year. Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa have all covered in Evanston in rocking chair fashion, each by double digits, and as long as Tanner Morgan plays and throws the ball more than about a dozen times, nothing should change. Minnesota still has their goals in front of them, as winning out likely puts them in position for the playoff even with a loss, and a weak effort against Northwestern would put all of that in peril, so I doubt we'll see a letdown. Also, the fundamental matchups in this one, especially between the Minny defense and that Wildcat offense are borderline laughable. I still believe Minny is undervalued, believe it or not.
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Minny actually opened up at -10 at BOL which was really shocking to me.
 
Nice to know ECU's HC Mike Houston has said that super Fr WR CJ Johnson is good to go this week. Him and Ahlers make a great combo. No Quarter!
 
AliShaheed said:
Minny actually opened up at -10 at BOL which was really shocking to me.
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Yeah, people that jumped on that got a steal.

Since I post this thread late in the week I usually end up posting some pretty horrific lines. Most of the time I grabbed a better number earlier in the week, but by the time i can get around to posting these things the lines have moved. I don't think anyone gives a shit what I got, they want to know what the market is currently bearing, so I post the current lines.
 
4. Penn State +19 @ Ohio State: I've gone back and forth on this one, but the more I think about it, it's really hard to pass up this many points with a top ten team. Like everyone, I'm worried about Penn State's ability to put up points if things go according to what the stat sheets of these teams' previous games tell us, but as we all know, these are imperfect 18-22 year old kids, so things don't always go according to plan. Also, we have to know that Penn State is not going to come into this game intimidated. They've covered 4 of the last 5 against the Buckeyes including an outright upset as a 17 point do 3 years ago. The last time in Columbus, they were outgained 529-283 but still found a way to take that game to the wire, 39-38. Usually when I make plays, I pull the trigger when I have several factors in my favor...good situation, a technical advantage, fundamental mismatches, etc. In this one, I have to admit it's just a feeling. If you're looking for sound logic, I don't have any for you. I just have a feeling that Ohio State is overdue for a clunker game, something that we would never have seen coming. OSU has been immune to this phenomenon so far this year and Penn State's history in this series indicates that if it's going to happen to OSU, this is the week. It certainly isn't going to happen next week. I think history tells us that.
 
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5. @UAB -6 v La Tech: Here's another line that has moved heavily, but even at this price, I think UAB is the play. La Tech's offense in my opinion is shaky even with the scattershot J'Mar Smith under center, but as everyone probably knows by now, he boneheaded his way off the field along with his top WR due to some off the field shenanigans, so Skip Holtz will have to make due with one of his backups at QB. Aaron Allen started last week at Marshall and did nothing, then got hurt and made way for some other stiff who also did nothing of consequence. When I line up the stats in this game, UAB seems like the clearly better side, and those stats are with the benefit of the missing starters for LT. Although they've struggled recently, UAB's defense ranks 5th in the country in yards per play against, 7th in yards per carry and 17th in passing yards per attempt and 4th in 3rd downs. They also pressure the passer (7th in sacks) which is not ideal for the low grade passers LT will be trotting out there. Although UAB has faced a very weak collection of offenses, that's what they'll be facing this week, so they should put forth their usual defensive effort this week. Throw in the fact that Bill Clark is a genius and the Blazers are 11-2 in their last 13 as a home favorite, that gives me plenty of reasons to pull the trigger here.
 
6. Texas +6 @Baylor: I like Baylor, I really do. When I looked at this game statistically, I can make a strong case that Texas's tackling deficient defense will have all kinds of trouble stopping this Baylor offense, and that Baylor's efficient defense will make Texas go side to side and we'll see a 24-34, 176 yards sideways offense type of game from Sam Ehlinger & company. However, even if that happens, Baylor has not shown any ability to beat teams of Texas's caliber by more than a couple points. They've beaten Texas Tech and West Virginia by 3 apiece (Tech being a miracle OT escape), escaped TCU in OT despite not scoring a TD in regulation and snuck out a win against Iowa State by 2. They just aren't wired to blow teams out, and home favorite is certainly not a role that suits them. Their best performances have been on the road in dicey spots, and frankly if they were catching a couple points in Austin, I'd be much more confident. I love Matt Rhule. He's 7-0 ATS as a dog since his arrival in Waco, but he's 2-8 as a home favorite, and he's facing the most famous underdog coach in recorded history in Tom Herman. (15-4 as a HC). Will all this evidence, there's really no reason to expect to Bears to be able to cover a spread this high.
 
7. @Indiana +9 v Michigan: I think the Hoosiers might be benefiting again this week from a situation that's very similar to what they faced last week, and we have some evidence from previous seasons that indicate IU is the play here. Michigan, of course is on a great roll, having played what Harbaugh characterized as a damn near perfect game against their rival last week. Now they find themselves in the ultimate sandwich spot, looking ahead to OSU while having to go on the road to play a legitimately good team in Indiana. You really can't conjure up a worse spot for the Wolverines. In fact, the schedule has fallen similarly to this year for Indiana a couple times in which they've played Michigan the week before the Big Game, and in both cases the Hoosiers covered comfortably. When IU's defense is on the field, on paper, they have the edge in every facet, and they've proven that they can move the ball on good defenses, as Ramsey through for almost 400 yards in Happy Valley last week. If Michigan comes in there and takes care of business against this motivated Hoosier squad in this spot, I'll tip my cap, but it's a lot to ask.
 
8. Purdue +25 @ Wisconsin: Ever since the loss to Illinois, Wisconsin has gone from otherworldly type performances to simply above average. In fairness, they have played 3 of those 4 games on the road, but getting outgained by Nebraska is certainly not ideal, even though they were never in danger of losing due to Nebraska's total inability to accomplish anything of substance. Wisconsin is looking forward to the showdown next week with Minnesota that will decide the Big Ten West and who gets to bring home Paul Bunyon's ax, which Wisconsin lost embarrassingly as a 2 TD favorite. Purdue comes in as a great road dog, having covered 10 of their last 12 in that role. Ultimately, I think we'll see a performance similar to when the Badgers hosted Northwestern and escaped with a 24-15 win. I'll be stunned if they generate an A effort.
 
9. San Jose St -7 @UNLV: San Jose St has been one of the weaker teams in the country over the past few years, but they've had a nice year this year. They've been surprisingly competent in the passing game (29th) and despite a general inability to run the ball, manage to be 19th in the nation in yards per play. UNLV's defense is a good matchup for anyone as they rank 115th in defensive yards per play against, and 127th against the run, so SJSU is likely to have success in that area as well. SJSU also almost never gets sacked, and UNLV is dead last in the country in sacks, so you can almost guarantee that SJSU QB Josh Love won't be bothered and will be able to stand back there all night and pick the Rebels apart. The Spartans also have been great in turnover margin while the Rebs are among the nation's worst. It all adds up to a sad final chapter in Sam Boyd Stadium.
 
I think should San Jose be trailing at halftime, they would be a terrific 2nd H play. If UNLV has any life it will probably be early in the game and it will probably be running the ball. I ilke San Jose but with some reservations will probably take it for a .5u full game and see about more at HT.
 
s--k said:
I think should San Jose be trailing at halftime, they would be a terrific 2nd H play. If UNLV has any life it will probably be early in the game and it will probably be running the ball. I ilke San Jose but with some reservations will probably take it for a .5u full game and see about more at HT.
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I can't argue with that logic. The Sam Boyd thing could give them juice early, but once reality sets in, it could be ugly. Nice call.
 
10. Coastal Carolina +6 @ Louisiana Monroe: There's a few reasons this game jumped out at me. First, Coastal has been pretty good on the road, dropping a tight one to Arky State, taking Ga Southern to overtime, and beating a not awful Kansas team outright 12-7. La Mo can run the ball a little bit, but that's about it. Defensively they rank 112th in yards per play, 124th in yards per carry, 103rd in yards er attempt, 108th in 3rd downs, you get the picture. Also, they're another team that thrives as a dog rather than a favorite. As a home favorite, they're 2-8 in their last 10, while Coastal has covered 3 out of their last 4 as a road dog. Lower level dogs have been a good play in the Sun Belt.
 
11. Temple +10.5 @ Cincinnati: Although I think Rod Carey will eventually allow the Temple ATS magic conjured up by the Rhule/Collins regimes to fade away, there's sill plenty of residue left over on the current squad to make them a strong consideration when getting double digits. Cincy has had a good year, but they have certainly not been at their best in recent weeks, having been severely outgained by both USF last week and ECU 2 weeks before that. Desmond Ritter's stats don't look terrible, but if you watch him play, he looks lost, and he's not going to have guys streaking wide open like he had against defenses like UConn and ECU in recent weeks. Also, since the Cincy rushing offense and Temple rush D appear to be a stalemate on paper, it's likely that the Bearcats will have to rely on Ritter, and the Owls have been good at getting turnovers. If Cincy was humming on all cylinders I'd be a bit nervous trying to cover this number, but in their current form, asking them to cover DD against a resourceful ATS team like Temple is asking a lot.
 
Nip at night.

Weather could negatively impact the fan turnout. Rain ok. Cold ok. Cold rain...at night, lots of people pass on that. We'll see how dedicated those fans are. Cincy is pretty good at home. I kinda wanted to take Cincy, but like you say, the eyeballs of their USF and ECU games can't be unseen and it feels like too many for them to lay. But they will be jacked up to try and clinch the East.
 
12. Oregon State +10.5 @ Washington State: I've never been a fan of laying double digits with bad defenses, and that's what we have here. Wazzou has actually been a great ATS play the past couple of years mostly because they had decent defenses to go with the Leach Air Raid offense, but that is absolutely not the case this year, As Leach has lamented several times, this Cougar team is rather soft, and the defense hasn't been able to stop anyone. They're 121st in yards per play against, bad against the run, and 116th against the pass. They'll be able to throw on the Beavers like they usually do, but I don't think they'll be able to stop OSU who has been a reliable offense, especially on the road. They're actually 3-0 on the road outright and put up 56 and 48 against Arizona and UCLA. Those are weak defenses to be sure, but they aren't worse than this Wazzou outfit. PAC 12 road dogs have been cashing this year, and I don't see why this one would be any different.
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. Temple +10.5 @ Cincinnati: Although I think Rod Carey will eventually allow the Temple ATS magic conjured up by the Rhule/Collins regimes to fade away, there's sill plenty of residue left over on the current squad to make them a strong consideration when getting double digits. Cincy has had a good year, but they have certainly not been at their best in recent weeks, having been severely outgained by both USF last week and ECU 2 weeks before that. Desmond Ritter's stats don't look terrible, but if you watch him play, he looks lost, and he's not going to have guys streaking wide open like he had against defenses like UConn and ECU in recent weeks. Also, since the Cincy rushing offense and Temple rush D appear to be a stalemate on paper, it's likely that the Bearcats will have to rely on Ritter, and the Owls have been good at getting turnovers. If Cincy was humming on all cylinders I'd be a bit nervous trying to cover this number, but in their current form, asking them to cover DD against a resourceful ATS team like Temple is asking a lot.
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Digging into this one myself. BOL today
 
13. Nevada +14 @ Fresno State: I'm not quite sure why this spread is so high. I'm guessing that people are still going off of last year, and that Fresno squad was very good, so I can see some positive feelings lingering, but Fresno has not justified a spread like this with their play this year. Let's explore: Fresno has won only 3 games all year against FBS competition, against New Mexico State, UNLV and as a slight dog at Hawaii, which has a cosmic inability to cover as a home favorite. They are 1-4 ATS when favored this year and lost 2 of them outright. Nevada, is no juggernaut themselves but they have a 6-4 record and have been playing pretty well in the past couple of weeks. Fresno's biggest Achilles heel is their pass defense, and that just happens to be what Nevada matches up well with as they are 33rd in yards per attempt. 14 points in this game seems like a gift, and if Nevada can avoid their penchant for turning the ball over, they should be in good shape.
 
14. San Diego State +3 @ Hawaii: I remember back in week 2 when SDSU was scheduled to play UCLA, every pundit in the world was on UCLA -13 because SDSU was coming off a 6-0 win over Weber State, so the talk was about how pathetic SDSU's offense was.Well, when you're playing a pass defense as bad as UCLA's, you might see some improvement the following week, especially considering Weber's D was probably better than UCLA's anyway. That's what I'm looking at this week. SDSU, although not explosive, should have little problem moving it on Hawaii's 119th ranked yards per play defense. Also, last year's surprise outright upset for the Rainbows notwithstanding, SDSU is 19-3-1 in the last 22 ATS against Hawaii and Nick Rolovich is 8-18-1 ATS in all home games since he got there. (3-8 as a home favorite the last 3 years). SDSU has the much better D, so I'll take the points and bank on Hawaii failing in their worst role.
 
15. Boise St -9.5 @ Utah State: Boise is still alive for the group of 5 slot in New Years Bowl games so they are definitely motivated, and they are easily the better team here. Boise should have no problem running on them or throwing as Utah State ranks 104th against the run and 119th against the pass(in yards per attempt). Boise can run it and throw it efficiently. Jordan Love has not performed well and he's not healthy anyway. Boise needs style points, so they'll be looking for more than just a win. I can see a 44-17 type game for Boise here.
 
Some good wins in here. Glad to see you had some good numbers that mattered (two pushes instead of losses based on where lines went). That 2pt SDSt conversion was huge obviously. I had them too.

I was a little afraid about that San Jose, but couldn't avoid them either. Believed they would have a strong 1st H because I've seen them do it before when down to try and rally. Fluke INT inside the 5 in the final seconds or else that game might've gone to OT and SJ could've won or pushed there. Just a touch situation with UNLV's final HG in that stadium, hard to anticipate what that means for the matchup.
 
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