Week 13 writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Tough week again last week, 6-8 on posted plays. Still at about 53% for the year, but it's a tall order to get people excited about that kind of winning percentage.

On to this week.

1. Minnesota +10 @ Nebraska: This is the first of a lot of very evenly matched games this week in which it makes sense to take the dog. These two teams are extremely similar: Both run as much as possible, avoiding the pass game completely is they can help it. Both have been pretty decent defensively as well...until Nebraska ran into Melvin Gordon last week. They went from 31st in the country in defensive yards per carry to 96th in one week, believe it or not. I think Minnesota is good enough in the run game to move the ball, and Mitch Leidner, although he takes a lot of shit for a perceived weakness in throwing it, can get the job done if needed. On the other hand, I have questions about whether Ameer Abdullah is truly 100%, and Tommy Armstrong has been brutal in recent weeks. Minnesota still has everything to play for in their division because they get Wisconsin next week, so motivation won't be an issue, and I'll take my chances with the Gophers in a Kill v Pelini tussle. 10 is a lot in this game.


2. Northwestern +1.5 @ Purdue: Although I really like how Purdue has looked in recent weeks, I really can't pass up a chance to fade them when they're favored in this spot. I've talked about how they've improved, but they still don't know how to win against anyone except a Tim Beckman coached squad. After beating Notre Dame last week, Northwestern finds themselves only two wins short of a bowl berth with only Purdue and Illinois standing in the way. Since the "Cats have already beaten Notre Dame and Wisconsin this year, these two games would seem to be child's play. Statistically, this is a dead heat, but Northwestern is clearly better with Justin Jackson running the ball, and Simien has looked much better throwing the ball. Defensively, the Cats have been stingy in allowing points all year, and Purdue is much weaker without their best WR Danny Anthrop. I'd be really surprised if Purdue rose up and spoiled things for them this week.
 
3. Western Michigan +1.5 @ Central Michigan: In my opinion, Western Michigan is clearly the best team in the MAC...certainly the most balanced. Central Michigan looks good on paper because they've clubbed some baby sealsbut I doubt they'll be able to stop the Bronco offense that's been throwing the ball at will on people and running effectively with future pro Jarmion Franklin in the backfield. They've covered 9 in a row, and the last few haven't been close. CMU has also struggled against lesser opponents at home. Western is just the better team here, although CMU has had a nice year in their own right.


4. Louisiana Tech -11 @Old Dominion: ODU is a good offensive squad with a really good quarterback in Taylor Heinecke, but for whatever reason it has not translated into results ATS. They've failed to cover 6 in a row since they upset Rice on the road early in the year, and the biggest reason for that is their awful defense. That defense is ranked 128th against the pass and 110th against the run. They'll be facing a LT offense that throws it effectively, and has a very competent running back in Kenneth Dixon. This will also be the best defense that ODU has faced this year, as they are ranked 20th in overall yards per play and 17th in passer rating against. They easily dispatched a more balanced UAB team on the road last week, and destroyed a WKU team that is very similar to and probably better than ODU the week before that.
 
​5. Arizona +4 @ Utah: Here's yet another case of two evenly matched teams where the points are going to be at a premium. Both of the defenses will have the advantage over the offenses, but I think Arizona's offense is the one more inclined to move the ball consistently than Utah's. Utah is much more banged up than Arizona, and the Wildcats are certainly more explosive, although AZ will have to limit Kaelin Clay's special teams touches. If this was a pick em, I would probably lay off, but with both of these teams' penchant for playing very close games, the 4 becomes very valuable. Utah is also much more comfortable playing in an underdog role...I don't think they'll respond well to being a conference favorite, much like they didn't when they were favored against Washington State earlier this year and lost outright as a 13 point favorite.


6. @Iowa State -1.5 v Texas Tech: The first time I looked at this one, I really felt it was a no play, but the more I look at it, the more I think it's a tall order for Texas Tech to jump off the mat after blowing a sizable lead on Oklahoma and be asked to win a road game. This is especially tough when your defense is atrocious. On the flip side, the one thing that Iowa state does pretty well is stop the pass, and they've shown the ability to move the ball on offense at times when Sam Richardson is healthy, and he'll be back this week. Short home favorite only has to win outright in a game where the opponent can't play a lick of defense. I'll take a chance on that.


7. Boston College +17 @ Florida State: This line is dropping... it was 19 just a few hours ago. Statistically these teams are very similar, and I peg BC to have the edge in the run game on both sides of the ball. They'll have their work cut out for themselves in stopping the pass, but they're getting 17 points to play with, and FSU has not shown the ability to cover a large spread yet this year. I like BC coach Steve Addazio's plans for the most part. I certainly think BC can hang tough in this one.
 
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8. Wisconsin -10 @Iowa: Let's not get too complicated with this: Wisconsin as it stands right now is ranked #2 in the country in yards per play both on offense and on defense in yard per play against. Obviously, Wisconsin hasn't played the schedule that some of these other schools, but that is impressive nontheless. They surrendered only 180 yards total to a good Nebraska offense last week, and we know what they did to them on the ground. Iowa is great at stopping the pass, and Wisconsin is ranked 100+ in the passing game, but Nebraska was 3rd in pass defense last week, and we know how that worked out. Iowa has struggled in stopping the run, and teams that have had that profile going in to a game with Wisconsin have been embarrassed badly. In order to cover this, Iowa will need some turnovers or a special teams score for sure, because I don't see them moving the ball much on offense.


9. @Arkansas +3.5 v Mississippi: Ole Miss is in a really bad spot right now due to a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. Most alarming is the injury to Crete-Monee High school's LaQuon Treadwell who has been a huge part of the Ole Miss offense all year. Their top running threat Mathers is also banged up so that leaves everything on poor Bo Wallace's shoulders. Arkansas's defense has not been stellar this year, but if you look at what they've done at home, you can't help but be impressed. Last week they allowed only 123 yards to LSU, and Alabama had their worst output of the year in Fayetteville, with only 227 yards. Ole Miss hasn't been all that great on offense even when they were healthy, and the motivational angle is solidly in Arkansas' favor, as they have finally gotten the SEC losing streak Mouse off their backs and are playing for a bowl berth while Ole Miss is kind of playing out the string since they've been eliminated from the playoff picture. I think this will be a low scoring game, so even if Arkansas finds a way to lose, the 3.5 is valuable.
 
10. Louisville +3 @ Notre Dame: Northwestern was the latest school to play the game of their lives in South Bend, yet another example that Notre Dame always gets everyone's best shot when they play at home. Now they have to face a Louisville squad that is playing at it's best with a very solid, opportunistic defense while the Irish are reeling. Louisville hasn't been to South Bend in a generation, so you know Petrino and company will be ready to go. Notre Dame's defense was a plus earlier in the year, but they've given up an average of 40 points to the likes of North Carolina, Navy and Northwestern in recent weeks, while Louisville has dropped 30+ in three straight games. They've got big time players in DeVante Parker and Michael Dyer, and Dyer certainly has proven that he shows up big in big games. I understand why ND is favored here, but I think I'm getting points with the better team.


11. Missouri +4 @ Tennessee: It's true that Tennessee is a much different team than they were early in the year due to the solid play of replacement QB Josh Dobbs, but Dobbs will be facing a very stout defense in this game, and a team that is still playing for a shot at the SEC East. Missouri recently regained the services of WR Darius White who serves as a sort of security blanket for the otherwise skittish Maty Mauk. This games caps out as a total tossup on paper, but in this case I get the team that figures out a way to win against a team that is still trying to figure that concept out, and I get 4 points to boot. There's also a sizable special teams edge for Missouri in this one.
 
12. @Virginia +6 v Miami: I really like Miami's team, but this is asking a ton of them to get up off the mat in this spot and beat a pretty pesky Virginia team who has already outgained Louisville, UCLA Pittsburgh and the resurgent version of North Carolina at home. They've lost several in a row, but are playing for their popular coach's job on Senior Day. Even without a bad situational spot, 6 would be a bit of a tall order for the Canes to cover on the road...in this case, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Virginia gets the outright upset.


13. USC +4 @UCLA: Another game with very evenly matched teams, but although it's on UCLA's home field, this is basically a neutral site game, and there's no way I'd make UCLA a 4 point favorite on a neutral with USC. I think the biggest edge in this game as far as individual units go is USC's passing game against UCLA's pass defense, as Cody Kessler has quietly had one of the best seasons of any QB in the country with 26 TDs and only 3 picks. USC is very seldom a dog in years where the wheels haven't fallen off so I'll jump at the chance to back them in a game with a UCLA team that has played only 1 impressive home game out of 4.
 
Others: There are several big favorites that I would be playing if I didn't make a rule to avoid favorites of more than 21. I like Memphis to cover the 20 against a South Florida squad that has had no business winning 4 games this year....Also like Ohio state to cover whatever their spread is against Indiana (-34.5). IU can't throw the ball and they won't be able to run the ball either. It behooves the Buckeyes to keep pouring it on, and their 3rd string could probably score at will on this Indiana defense. Consider: many IU fans feel that the Hoosiers played pretty well last week at Rutgers and they still lost by 22....Baylor(-29.5) has added motivation to destroy Oklahoma St since OSU embarrassed them and ruined their perfect season last year, and TCU already has an 82-27 win against a Cowboy squad that threw in the towel several weeks ago. I'll also probably be contemplating laying 22 with Michigan State and 20 with Marshall.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Western Michigan +1.5 @ Central Michigan: In my opinion, Western Michigan is clearly the best team in the MAC...certainly the most balanced. Central Michigan looks good on paper because they've clubbed some baby sealsbut I doubt they'll be able to stop the Bronco offense that's been throwing the ball at will on people and running effectively with future pro Jarmion Franklin in the backfield. They've covered 9 in a row, and the last few haven't been close. CMU has also struggled against lesser opponents at home. Western is just the better team here, although CMU has had a nice year in their own right.


4. Louisiana Tech -11 @Old Dominion: ODU is a good offensive squad with a really good quarterback in Taylor Heinecke, but for whatever reason it has not translated into results ATS. They've failed to cover 6 in a row since they upset Rice on the road early in the year, and the biggest reason for that is their awful defense. That defense is ranked 128th against the pass and 110th against the run. They'll be facing a LT offense that throws it effectively, and has a very competent running back in Kenneth Dixon. This will also be the best defense that ODU has faced this year, as they are ranked 20th in overall yards per play and 17th in passer rating against. They easily dispatched a more balanced UAB team on the road last week, and destroyed a WKU team that is very similar to and probably better than ODU the week before that.
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Not it that it changes your point really, but I rate Marshall's defense higher than LTs. What I would worry about in terms off the off week is LT looking ahead toward Rice next week and it being senior day for Heinicke, and they are making it a big deal being last home game.

Still ODU struggles with teams like LT that are built on defense and I know even though there offense is really bad, they will still be able to move the ball.
 
Not talkin sh.it or trying to start anything, but im guessing you never bother to look at public betting percentages?
 
All the best to you Timmy. Thanks Dollaz. Appreciate all your work on breaking down the OD games for us.
 
Dunno why you're being sarcastic or whatever with me. I was just asking, bc almost all of your sides are public sides. Minnesota 62%, NW 56%, WM 72%, La Tech 87%, Zona 57%, Ia St 49%, BC 60%, Wiscy 75%, Arky 48%, Ville 40%, Mizzou 55%, UVA 57%, USC 65%, and for good measure your leans are Mem 80%, Ohio St 75%, Baylor 80%, Sparty 83%, Marshall 72%.

FWIW I hope you have a huge weekend. I was just asking a simple question. Dunno why so many people online have a chip on their shoulder....GL sir
 
ram1502 said:
Dunno why you're being sarcastic or whatever with me. I was just asking, bc almost all of your sides are public sides. Minnesota 62%, NW 56%, WM 72%, La Tech 87%, Zona 57%, Ia St 49%, BC 60%, Wiscy 75%, Arky 48%, Ville 40%, Mizzou 55%, UVA 57%, USC 65%, and for good measure your leans are Mem 80%, Ohio St 75%, Baylor 80%, Sparty 83%, Marshall 72%.

FWIW I hope you have a huge weekend. I was just asking a simple question. Dunno why so many people online have a chip on their shoulder....GL sir
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Not to answer for him, but it could just be the week here.

Dude is one of the better guys here and write-ups are phenomenal

Im sure it just came out weird ram
 
Br@ssknux said:



9. @Arkansas +3.5 v Mississippi: Ole Miss is in a really bad spot right now due to a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. Most alarming is the injury to Crete-Monee High school's LaQuon Treadwell who has been a huge part of the Ole Miss offense all year. Their top running threat Mathers is also banged up so that leaves everything on poor Bo Wallace's shoulders. Arkansas's defense has not been stellar this year, but if you look at what they've done at home, you can't help but be impressed. Last week they allowed only 123 yards to LSU, and Alabama had their worst output of the year in Fayetteville, with only 227 yards. Ole Miss hasn't been all that great on offense even when they were healthy, and the motivational angle is solidly in Arkansas' favor, as they have finally gotten the SEC losing streak Mouse off their backs and are playing for a bowl berth while Ole Miss is kind of playing out the string since they've been eliminated from the playoff picture. I think this will be a low scoring game, so even if Arkansas finds a way to lose, the 3.5 is valuable.
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I see you mention Crete-Monee High. Would you happen to be from there ?
 
ram1502 said:
Dunno why you're being sarcastic or whatever with me. I was just asking, bc almost all of your sides are public sides. Minnesota 62%, NW 56%, WM 72%, La Tech 87%, Zona 57%, Ia St 49%, BC 60%, Wiscy 75%, Arky 48%, Ville 40%, Mizzou 55%, UVA 57%, USC 65%, and for good measure your leans are Mem 80%, Ohio St 75%, Baylor 80%, Sparty 83%, Marshall 72%.

FWIW I hope you have a huge weekend. I was just asking a simple question. Dunno why so many people online have a chip on their shoulder....GL sir
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I wasn't going to respond but you probably do deserve an explanation Ram.

First of all, how can you start a post with "Not talkin sh.it or trying to start anything..." and then be surprised when someone gives you a sarcastic answer? You knew it might tick someone off to say that, or you wouldn't have started your sentence that way.

"I'm guessing you never bother to look at public betting percentages."

What serious CFB bettor who has been at this awhile and puts in a lot of time and effort on it wouldn't be ticked off to read that? I've been on this site since shortly after it started and have been handicapping CFB vigorously for 15 years. I'm typically not thin skinned,(but Maybe I am in this case) but I would think most guys on here would have been insulted by what you said. Do you really think that one of the most basic and elementary concepts of sports betting is foreign to me just because there are some public plays on my card in a given week? I wasn't even sure if you were being serious with your question to be honest with you.

To answer your question, I do bother to look at public betting percentages. I usually use the covers consensus page and try to see if I can make a case for some of the most contrarian sides on there. If I can't I move on. Sometimes, and it was the case this week, the games I feel strongest about end of having more than 50% of the public on that side. It happens. For example, I didn't give a rat's behind what the public was saying about Arkansas/Ole Miss this week, for the reasons I listed above I was betting Arkansas, even though I've been against Arkansas and on Ole Miss more times than not this year. Actually, I don't really consider a side to be "public" unless it gets up above 60%, so I wouldn't really agree that so many of these were as "public" as you would. Not sure what the consensus is about that. (By the way, the reason my leans didn't end up on my card was because those sides were big favorites...and public plays as you mentioned.)

I hate to talk so much about this, but maybe it will help explain why I responded as I did. I'm sure you are a great guy, like just about everyone is here. Thanks for the good wishes as well. I guess ultimately I would ask you to put yourself in my shoes. I would think that if you spent the time to not only post your plays but to spend a pretty healthy amount of time doing write ups giving your angle on each one, it might tick you off a little as well.
 
Thanks for the kind words CC, Marlo, Twink(as always), Cruse.

Bear, I grew up in the south suburbs of Chicago and have family in Crete. Also, these writeups come from a weekly email I send to a bunch of buddies and most of those guys come from that area as well. That's why I referenced it. Are you from there too??
 
Arky was my 1st toe back in the water......I saw what I saw vs LSU and I saw how LSU lost to Arky and figured Piss could do it better:cheers3:
 
Very nice...Great reads and some 'great reads'.


And who other than Tru and Cruzer care about 'who the public on' lmao.
 
I must admit that your thread is my guilty pleasure. One of the first names I look for when I come to CTG. Continued success sir.
 
Great job Brass. Post #22 should actually be Post of the Year, there won't be a better one on here, maybe ever.
 
I dont wanna quote your whole post and clog up your thread so i'll just say.....
Great weekend man. :shake:

In response, i knew what i was asking could come across wrong, which is why i prefaced the question with the intro. Not trying to bust your balls at all, it was a sincere question (although, in hindsight, poorly worded and for that i apologize).
Consider it squashed on my end. Keep up the great work. :cheers3:
 
ram1502 said:
I dont wanna quote your whole post and clog up your thread so i'll just say.....
Great weekend man. :shake:

In response, i knew what i was asking could come across wrong, which is why i prefaced the question with the intro. Not trying to bust your balls at all, it was a sincere question (although, in hindsight, poorly worded and for that i apologize).
Consider it squashed on my end. Keep up the great work. :cheers3:
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You are a good man Ram, as I suspected. :cheers3:
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for the kind words CC, Marlo, Twink(as always), Cruse.

Bear, I grew up in the south suburbs of Chicago and have family in Crete. Also, these writeups come from a weekly email I send to a bunch of buddies and most of those guys come from that area as well. That's why I referenced it. Are you from there too??
Click to expand...

Small world. My mom grew up in Crete before moving to Joliet, and then to Lockport where I grew up. I remember Crete had a nice basketball facility. We played there twice in the Super Sectionals of the high school state tournament back in the 70's
 
Carolina Guy said:
F'ing hilarious. :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Great week, btw. Solid.
Click to expand...

Thanks CG. Thoughts on the UNC/NC State game? It seems Fedora has found his mojo, albeit belatedly. I also figured Koenning would have that defense playing better at some point. His Illinois defenses in '10 and '11 were salty.
 
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