Week #13 of CFB

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
2007:
CFB ATS: 71-68-5, -0.625 units
CFB ML: 1-3, -1.75 units
CFB O/U: 26-23-0, +1.20 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 98-94-5, -1.175 units


In other words...just one win away from making a full recovery on the season, lol. Hopefully this week will have me back in black...to stay.

Anyways, off to an early start this week...on what will prolly be yet another large card.


Thursday, 11/22

USC (-3) over Arizona St (-110) for 1.5 units Winner

Friday, 11/23

Boise St (+4.5) over Hawaii (-110) for 1.5 units Loser

Saturday, 11/24

Missouri (+2) over Kansas (-110) for 1.5 units

Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (-110) for 1.5 units

Vanderbilt (+2) over Wake Forest (-110) for 1.5 units

Oklahoma (-11.5) over Oklahoma St (-110) for 1 unit


Made the first 3 plays (USC, Boise, and Mizzou) on Sunday afternoon. Made the next 2 (Kentucky and Vandy) Monday at lunch. And made the small Oklahoma play Monday nite. I know a couple of these lines have moved...but both RJ and BAR can verify when i made the plays, cuz we were discussing them on sunday...or i was peppering them with texts on monday.

In any case, there'll be additions (for sure) over the remainder of the week. And i'll be back in a few with some thoughts on these plays as well.


11/22 - 11/24 Additions (as promised)

USC (-.5) for the 1st Q (+110) for a 1/2 unit Winner

Bowling Green (-6.5) over Toledo (-110) for 1 unit Winner

Texas/Texas A&M under 60.5 (-110) for 1 unit Loser

Maryland (+2.5) over NC State (-110) for 1 unit

Cincinnati/Syracuse under 53.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Utah (+4.5) over BYU (-110) for 1 unit

Oregon/UCLA under 50.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Virginia (+3) over Virginia Tech (-110) for 1 unit

11/24 final addition (a parlay)

USF ML to UGA ML = 1 unit to win 1.042


Still looking at possibly one or two more for Saturday.

Happy capping. :cheers:
 
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first, some thoughts on games i haven't played yet...or that i'm not going to play.

WVU
Had my eye on this one. Wanted WVU pretty bad...well, until it came out at -17 pts that is. I made them a 20 pt fav, via my own crap rankings...but wanted a spread much less than that, obviously. So this one will be a no play. I know UConn is enticing, catching all those points...but imho, the line was put out there to basically beg for UConn action.
Believe me, i like the UConn story/squad. I've been on them quite a few times this year...and against them in Cincy. Just a believer that the line is set for a reason...to draw equal action on both sides. And to get that, they had to go all the way to 17 pts. Notice it hasn't really moved either.

TX
Was leaning this way...and still might do something...but it's getting more and more unlikely by the hour. Made the Horns a 9 pt fav...and that's what it opened at in Vegas. However, in less than 36 hours, that line's been cut in half...and is now at 4.5 pts. I thought A&M was pretty much done for the remainder...but this movement, in and of itself, is enough for me to look more than twice at the game. But for now...don't trust it, so not touching it.

UGA
Don't trust this line at all. Don't get me wrong...i cannot begin to make a case for GT to win this game, despite my power rankings...which make UGA a 1.5 fav on the road. However, this one just looks way to easy...and i'm leary, as a result. So i'm gonna wait and watch this one. Want to play UGA...but i guess i'm willing to risk the line going up, to be/feel more sure. (If i end up playing it at all.) Cuz as of now...this'll obviously be a tremendously public play...and quite honestly has trap written all over it...because again, there's no reason (to me) UGA doesn't dominate this game.

Auburn
Love Auburn...and would love to play them here. But the spread's a bit high, they've won so many in a row now against Bama, and Saban needs this game to salvage his season. Anyways, nothign big...jsut gonna take a wait and see approach here.

LSU
I think this spread is low, actually. Arkansas has the best player in college football...but Arkansas also doesn't have much else. It's not that good of a team, overall. (See Tennessee 2 weeks ago, lol.) Not all that sold on LSU either...in that they've shown some vulnerabilities...but home/road can make all the difference in the world.

BYU
Need to do more research here...but was a bit surprised to find the line set so low. At least until i saw all the success Utah's had...both against BYU, and playing at BYU. Not ruling this out...jsut need to dig much deeper into this matchup.

anyhow...that was jsut some quick thoughts on some games that either haven't made the cut yet, or that never will.
 
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now some thoughts on the plays i did make...albeit breif ones, as it's way fucking late and i'm tired.
one thing though...there won't be any more undefeated teams after this weekend, imho.


USC (-3)
ASU should be favored at home...at least by my power rankings...but the line tells the story, imho. ASU's a bit better offensively, but SC's a bit better defensively. SC's much healthier at the moment. They're 5-2 ATS in their L7 games w/ ASU. And with the loss of Dixon in Oregon, SC's got their sights set on a matchup w/ tOSU in the Rose Bowl. They take care of biz, and Oregon loses one of their remaining two, and what seemed impossible a week plus ago will happen. But the key is SC's improvements of late. The defense has really come together...they've been outstanding, the more they've focused on pressuring the opposng QB. And the offense is finally beginning to gel...from JDB, to the receivers, to the RB position...which isn't so much of a carousel anymore.

Boise (+4.5)
Made Boise a slight fav in this one. 3 of Hawaii's L4 games have not been impressive at all. Besides just Nevada, SJST, and Fresno...this Hawaii team has been very lucky to remain undefeated this long. Boise St has won 6 straight in this series, including the L3 in Hawaii...so they've been there, done that...and it's not quite the issue in this case. Boise's the way better team defensively, against the run or the pass. (Nevada's RB showed how over-rated Hawaii's run defense #'s in fact were.) And regardless of what (if any) injury issues Hawaii has at QB (&/or RB), these are 2 very productive offenses...that'll both move the ball down the field. Nevertheless, imo i'm getting the better/stronger team...the one w/ a running game to control the clock, and a defense to get some necessary stops...at more than a FG...so it was easy to hop onboard.

Mizzou (+2)
Actually, i made Kansas a 2 pt fav here. So why take Mizzou? Well, let's get into this matchup. First, and least relevant, is the dreaded #2 spot i've joked about almost all season. From USC at the beginning...thru teams like BC...and up to Oregon...the #2 team in the country has proven to be vastly over-rated. (It's a curse, lol.) Seriously though...there are 3 main factors that made Mizzou a play for me this week. The neutral field, strength of schedule, and common opponents this year. Kansas obviously has the better defense, at least by the #'s...but imo the offenses are very comparable. But moving this game to a neutral field is huge...and needs to taken into account. As does the very significant difference in strength of schedule. It simply can't be ignored...and it obviously plays into many of the #'s we use to cap this matchup. Go down the list of games...Mizzou has a significantly better SOS than Kansas does to this point, bottom line. Lastly, and maybe most tellingly, are the 5 common opponents Mizzou and Kansas have had this season. Mizzou's wins over Kansas St, Texas A&M, and Colorado were all significantly more impressive wins than Kansas had agaisnt these same 3 teams...offensively, defensively, and by the final score. In the case of Iowa St however, Kansas won much more impressively than Mizzou did. Then there's Nebraska. Sure, Kansas put up 30+ more points on Nebraska than Mizzou did...but Kansas also gave up 30+ more points to Nebraska than Mizzou did. And when looking at all the yardage Nebraska put up on Kansas...w/out Keller at QB, btw, as he was when Mizzou held them to 6 pts...i gotta favor Mizzou's game against the cornhuskers over Kansas' game against them, despite the 70-something pts. Anyways in terms of the 5 common foes TY, at worst Mizzou has a 3-1-1 edge...and at best a 4-1 edge...in terms of how both teams performed in very similar circumstances. Add in the SOS variance...and how that can skew both offensive and defensive #'s for a team...and that's basically why i'm on Mizzou this week. Kansas is a great story, no doubt. And on one hand, i'd love to see them play in the NC game. I just don't see it happening...despite having the HC advantage in this game to be played in Kansas City, not Lawrence.


those are my semi-quick thoughts on the 1st three. time for a smoke...then i'll be back with some stuff on my remaining 3 plays.
 
thoughts on the remaining three. gonna be much more brief, as i'm now basically on fumes.


Kentucky (-3)
Was hoping for a better line here, but it is what it is. Actually made Kentucky a 7 pt fav in this spot. They've played well at home, for the most part, going 5-2 TY...where the Vols are merely 1-3 on the road TY. Kentucky's got a decent advantage offensively in this matchup. But when considering home & road #'s, they also have somewhat of a defensive advantage too. The Vols have had some moments TY...but they've also been pretty poor defensively at times, especially on the road. Tennessee is coming off 4 straight home games, which doesn't bode well for them...but they've also won the L10 meetings SU with Kentucky. But with Woodson and Little both healthy, what better year (chance) for the Wildcats to get their first win over the Vols since '84...and maybe start to make this a real rivalry again. They definitely have the offense to do it.

Vandy (+2)
Wrong team favored here, imho. I actually made this game Vandy -2 pts. These two teams have only met twice this decade, with Vandy winning both times. So there's not much in terms of recent matchups. In terms of this year though...Vandy's the better team defensively, especially when looking at home/road numbers. And when looking at those same home/road #'s for TY, Vandy's very close offensively to Wake. WF has sputtered at times this season, as has Vandy...but i definitely like the tougher SEC schedule Vandy's gone thru, relating back to those same #'s...when comparing the 2 teams.

Oklahoma (-11.5)
Don't care if it's Bradford at QB, or the kid from HB. And yes, i do know their RB is definitely out for this game. All that's what's dropped this line, and a part of why i made this small play. That said...i still may hedge off this play later in the week. Just wanted to put a unit on it now, with the line down to where it is.
Oklahoma is 6-0 TY at home. And they've historically been great (ats) rebounding from a loss. Okie Lite is 2-3 on the road this year...and imo, a quite a bit of a disappointment this year as well. They've had their fair share of poor games...going all the way back to Troy, lol.
There is no comparison between these 2 defenses. Even though i've railed on the Sooner's pass defense...overall, their squad is head & shoulders above Okie Lite's...and then some. Both offenses have been very good...Okie Lite having the advantage in yards, but Oklahoma in terms of point production. But Okie Lite gets so much of their offensive success on the ground...and that plays right into the Sooner strength, defensively. And switching sides, i'm not sure Okie Lite will be able to stop the Sooner offense...regardless of who's throwing/running the ball...as they're pretty bad, quite often.
Lastly, the last 2 meetings in Norman have both been complete blowouts...and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Oklahoma turn into the L3 at home against Okie Lite.


OK...those are my quick thoughts on my 6 plays so far...as well as thoughts on those other 6 games that i'm either waiting on, or that i threw out.
Off to bed, finally...
 
Thx Aztec, BAR, LJC :cheers:

I actually decided to write out some thoughts this week, lol.


Interesting stat of the day (that i sent via text to others)...

Pete has never lost a game in November as HC of USC.


Anyways...debating doubling up on USC, especially if i see a -2.5 pts. It's back at 3 pts now.
Posted my thoughts in BAR's thread...but the quick version is that USC is going to own the trenches int his game, on both sides of the ball. Own, is the key word.
 
Thx VK...Thx Hunt :cheers:


Added a bunch of (small play) additions to my first post. Too many for write-ups though.

Still looking at UGA, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Despite really liking them this week...the whole situation pretty much goes against much of what i do/how i cap...so i haven't been able to make a decision. Though that's prolly a good sign i should jsut lay off the game altogether.

Also, i'm sticking with my small play on the Sooners...so no hedge is forthcoming on that one.

Now the additions...

Played USC for the 1st Q. I very rarely (if ever) play quarters or halves, but this time i did. Just too many #'s (from SC and AZST) making this 1st Q play look way too easy tonight. I did however maintain the willpower to keep this play a very small one, lol.

Added Blowing Green on Friday...partly due to Toledo's injured QB, partly due to other factors/numbers.

Added the under in the TX/TxA&M game. Didn't trust a side at all here...but i do like this total, as i think it reaches about 48 to 49 points.

Took Maryland plus the points, as i believe the wrong team's favored.

Played the under in Cincy/Cuse, as i got this about 12 points off.

Took Utah plus the points. Initial lean was to BYU. But after really looking into the matchup, as well as reading jpick's thoughts, i couldn't resist jumping on the dog.

Played Duck/Bruin under...good defenses against replacement QBs.

And took Virginia plus the points. Could be a nice home doggie this week, in what should be a tight/defensive game (to say the least).

Happy Thanksgiving, all. :cheers:
 
lastly...

LSU/Arky is a definite no play for me, as Bob pushed this up to 2 TDs.

Bama/Auburn prolly won't become a play either...unless the 6 became a 3, for some unforeseen reason.

Mentioned both UGA and TX already, in the post above.

But WVU is also definitely not a play. Think they win convincingly...but by the spread, at 17 to 18 points.

Anyways, i think i've touched on all the games i've brought up this week. At most, there might be one or two saturday additions...but it's prolly unlikely at this point, as i think my card's pretty much set.
 
paytheline said:
happy thanksgiving yanks...and best of luck to you!:tiphat:
Click to expand...


same to you, Pay.
how's the nfl going for you this year? i miss seeing you around...seeing your weekly numbers, and comparing to where i'm at.
hope all is well though. and that you had a great day w/ the family.

:cheers:
 
Well...it's been a long, hard climb...for at least 4 or 5 weeks now, in this wacky cfb season...but i can finally say that i'm Back in Black tonight.

:smiley_acbe:

Hopefully to stay!

BOL on Friday, everyone.:tiphat:
 
as good as thursday was...friday kinda sucked. blowing green was nice. but the 48 pts in the 2nd half of the TX/TXA&M game was a pisser...possibly even a moose sighting. then to top the nite off, boise goes and shits the bed.
oh well, still 3-2 on the week and up a bit...heading into saturday.

anyways, saturday...
couldn't pull the trigger on UGA, for all the same reasons. looks way to easy, the entire world is on them, and they're a road fav in a state rivalry game.
also couldn't pull the trigger on USF...despite Bob making this line way more enticing today.

so, i went and did something lame instead. to keep myself from playign both of these road favs, i parlayed the MLs instead.
i'll add it to the 1st post above...but it's the USF ML to the UGA ML, jsut for a unit.
 
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