Week 13 ML Dog Discussion

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
NC State, Vandy, Wash St, GT, Mich are some I am looking at.
There is a lot of plays out there this week, I feel
 
Normally a great week to do so. Maybe I will look back to the final regular season week last year or two and see what we get in number of upsets.

NC State
Memphis - QB?
Texas Tech
Toledo
GT
Virginia
ULL
Michigan
Iowa State
Michigan State
Minnesota
Duke
SMU
Miss State
Notre Dame
Nevada
Oregon State
FAU
Cal
ECU - perhaps the most unlikely
Utah
Vandy
Colorado State
Utah State

No way would I ever play that many. I just shot gunned a bunch out there. Upsets in any of those games would not come as a shock to me.
 
You may have missed one s--k. Seriously, you could probably come out ahead if played that list. No game on this board is a sure thing. Too many to list.

UF +238
Miss St +275

I can't even list them. They all look enticing.
 
ProV1Colt said:
NC State, Vandy, Wash St, GT, Mich are some I am looking at.
There is a lot of plays out there this week, I feel
Click to expand...

Vandy, GT, NC State are possibilities. Also UVA and UK. VPI has beaten UVA 12 straight years and will be looking ahead to the ACCCG. UL could be devastated by last week's loss.

Also Minn, Miss St, Iowa St, and Cal.
 
Updated through 12 weeks:

Underdogs of .....number of upset winners
+6 to 10.5.....49x
+11 to 13.5....15x
+14 to 19.5 ....21x
+20 and up....10x



Best performers:
Wyoming with wins as +9, +6, +11', +14', 9'
North Texas with wins as +7, +11', +17' (just missed another below 6, +5' beat SMiss)
Charlotte with wins as +13, +8, +17
Vanderbilt with wins as +8, +14, +9'


Teams with two upset wins dogged 6 pts and higher:
Arkansas, Arkansas St, Army, Buffalo, Duke, Houston, Navy, North Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, South Alabama, ULM, UNLV, UTSA, Wake Forest
 
Not a great weekend last year for upsets...2014 and 2013 more to our liking, especially ATS.

Friday 11/27/15 Upsets (5)
Miami, Fl +7 over Pitt, Buffalo +6' over UMass, W Michigan +7' over Toledo, Houston+1 over Navy, TCU+2 over Baylor
ATS 7 favs, 7 dogs

Saturday 11/28/15 Upsets (6)
Maryland +1 over Rutgers, S Miss+5 over LTech, Syracuse+3 over BC, Wyoming+2 over UNLV, UTEP+3 over N Texas, NMex+11 over AF,
ATS 27 favs, 15 dogs - 1 push



Friday 11/28/14 Upsets (8)
NIU+8 over W Michigan, Nebraska+1' over Iowa, Ball St+10 over BGSU, Kent+3 over Akron, Missouri+2' over Arkansas, Stanford+6' over UCLA, AF+7' over Colorado St, Virginia Tech+1' over Virginia
ATS 5 favs, 11 dogs

Saturday 11/29/14 Upsets (8)
Old Dominion+3 over FAU, Illinois+7 over Northwestern, Georgia Tech+10' over Georgia, North Carolina St+6' over UNC, Rutgers+7' over Maryland, Ole Miss+2' over Mississippi St, BYU+3 over Cal, Pitt+11 over Miami Fl,
ATS 23 favs, 17 dogs - 2 push



Thursday 11/28/13 (1)
First Turkey Day upset Mississippi St+3 over Ole Miss.

Friday 11/29/13 Upsets (3)
Iowa+2' over Nebraska, Akron+11 over Toledo, San Jose St+10' over Fresno St
ATS 7 favs, 9 dogs

Saturday 11/30/13 Upsets (11)
Duke+5 over UNC, UConn+2 over Rutgers, Temple+8 over Memphis, SMiss+15 over UAB, Syracuse+2' over BC, Auburn+10 over Alabama, Penn St+25 over Wisconsin, Iowa St+7' over WVU, ULM+18 over ULL, UCLA+4 over USC, UNLV+3 over San Diego St
ATS 16 favs, 24 dogs



Thursday 11/22/12 Upset (1)
TCU +7' over Texas

Friday 11/23/12 Upsets (2)
Washington St+14 over Washington, Arizona St+3 over Arizona
ATS 7 favs, 7 dogs

Saturday 11/24/12 Upsets (7)
UConn+10' over Louisville, SMU+6 over Tulsa, UTSA+1 over Texas St, Florida+6' over Florida St, Ole Miss+1 over Mississippi St, South Carolina+6' over Clemson, Hawaii+3 over UNLV
ATS 26 favs, 12 dogs, - 2 push (+ one game was pick not counted)
 
I have eyes on Texas Tech. I like the bounce back after a blow out and if public is pounding TTU could be worth a deeper look on the ML.
 
NC St came thru for us. Memfis hit. Off to a good start.
s--k. that long list you threw out will come out +$ if you played everyone. IMO.
3for3 to start
 
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Virginia and Minnesota.

We saw what happened to VPI two days after the last time UNC lost unexpectedly. And the Hoos have twelve straight losses to the Gobblers.

Thanks to Iowa taking care of the ridiculously overrated Huskers (overrated by the Committee, at least), Wisconsin doesn't need a win tomorrow. The line should be about 8 to begin with, and, after Iowa clinched the division for the Badgers, I could easily see Minnesota winning.
 
Some really big dog winners on Friday
So Miss +600+, had the points but missed ML, Mullins played great
Other dogs winning outright were USAF, Tx Tech, TCU, Missouri, NC State, Memphis

Liking the following today
Vandy 1st half
Miss State 1st half
Utah 1st half

Also liking the chances with really longer shots Kentucky and South Carolina
Have seen Clemson play some one possession wins and with rivalry angle, Clemson look ahead to conference champ game next week, will nibble.
Hopefully KY has studied the Houston/Lville film well and brings their A game.
Need both dogs to play to their best, not get blown out early, and need some turnovers but that's what I'm playing.
 
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Thanks Colt, I am considering Auburn but laying $ against Bama has greater nausea than the gut feel I have had for the Iron Bowl upset lol
Not playing Mich but the line move past 24 hours interesting
 
I don't see Bama losing. But if they do.... I wanna win $ on it.
Dont see Vandy winning either but I will have $ on Vandy 1H then Vols 2H
 
Man I have been sick all week, know lots of people also sick. Hope you guys are doing well. I finally had to go in for a doctor visit, back home now before games start, got to get some things figured out.

NC State
Memphis - QB?
Texas Tech
Toledo
Click to expand...

3 out of 4, funny but I didn't ML any of those...the only ML I did was courtesy of Dollarz and is great CUSA knowledge, he nailed SMiss against LT. So many thanks to him for that.

10 out of 14 dogs covered yesterday...8 out right winners!

Hopefully dogs keep barking today. I'll post back if I can narrow down the ML potential list. Hate to be doing it so close to kickoff.
 
Oh, I had a dream the other night that Rutgers beat Maryland. Do you guys ever dream about upcoming games/bets?
 
M.W. said:
Virginia and Minnesota.

We saw what happened to VPI two days after the last time UNC lost unexpectedly. And the Hoos have twelve straight losses to the Gobblers.

Thanks to Iowa taking care of the ridiculously overrated Huskers (overrated by the Committee, at least), Wisconsin doesn't need a win tomorrow. The line should be about 8 to begin with, and, after Iowa clinched the division for the Badgers, I could easily see Minnesota winning.
Click to expand...

I was thinking that Bronco's history in a heated rivalry in the Holy War series could play a positive role how he approaches this game, although as a head coach he's never had to motivate a team with a losing record and probably never been at such a personnel disadvantage.

I will be on Minny. I think their D can do their part, but the O is going to have to produce at a level higher than we normally see from them. Without enough O support the D will eventually yield too much I fear.
 
Mich .5 to win .90
Rut .1 to win .53
Vir .1 to win .9
Minn.5 to win 2.3
Duke .1 to win .55
Miss St .2 to win .65
Nev .5 to win 1.57

Good luck everyone!
 
s--k said:
Man I have been sick all week, know lots of people also sick. Hope you guys are doing well. I finally had to go in for a doctor visit, back home now before games start, got to get some things figured out
Click to expand...
Yeap. I think I feel it starting while my 3yr old just started daycare last week. The sickness begins
 
OK what do we have left. I want more.

[video=youtube;dK_7NAE-rKE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK_7NAE-rKE[/video]

Will be really disappointed if I lose that Min ML, hopefully a couple of those will come in, 2 look on solid ground. Really want the Minny one!

Seems everyone likes Vandy. Vandy 1st half, Utah 1st half, Florida, Cal, S Carolina.

I liked FSU...but I bet so many dogs that when I like a fav it usually loses. I only bet one fav today out of 21 games..Georgia...and of course it lost. So maybe play Florida? I didn't like FSU minus this many pts anyway. We know how bad their pass protection OL is, biggest weakness there, any good reason to play UF? UF has that game next week...FSU can go all out no matter what. Plus Jimbo appears to be staying now, so no distraction there...I don't know.

Vandy huh? Yeah, I'd play Vandy on more of a Tenn fade than a play on Vandy. Before the O "explosion" vs Ole Miss, Dores scored just 17 and 16 vs Miz and Aub...so was last week the exception?

I do like Cal, have 'em with the pts, but don't typically play ML dogs that low on odds.

What else, 30 minutes until late games begin to kick. Let's find some more winners.
 
Without any persuasion from my friends here, all I have left is a long shot. $10 to win 140 on ECU. Temple has alot to play for, but this play is similar in the line of thinking that saw Cincy take Tulsa to the limit last night for absolutely no explainable reason possible. ECU wins this game there is no way to forecast or explain it, but strange things happen (and have happened), plus that is a nice return on a "why the hell not" $10 bet.

Will have Vandy with pts, others, Utah, Utah St, S Car...but just don't feel the ML play on those.
 
Good call on Vandy!

11 teams on that big list won. I am still really upset with the Minnesota ML. At halftime with Gophers up 10, I'm putting in 2nd half wagers and staring at the Badgers -7.5 in a 7-17 game and I'm like do I put $1 on Badgers 2nd half to guarantee myself a unit regardless of who wins, or do I gamble and ride the Minny ML? I gambled of course. Opening drive of 3rd qrt Min drives the field and then throws INT in EZ and it was lights out from there. 24 unanswered points by Badgers, final 6 drives by Min resulted in zero first downs. Only saving grace was the ATS win, but that is mixed too since half of it +14 pushed and half was +14.5 and won, so left money on the table there as well.

Worst thing with playing ML plays to me is when the dog not only loses, which in most cases is ok, so long as they cover. Had some disappointing noncovers on the plays yesterday. Blindly taking all those dogs ML from the big list would've done better (11 out of 24 (hypothetical 100 on each would be +1843 - 1300 = +543).

So it was a modestly positive day on my end, the ones where you spend more time thinking of the ones that got away.
 
I was in the process of adding up all the MLs if we would have played the big list.
You beat me too it
 
Agree on Minnesota, same thing happened with Mich State
Still had good day thanks to Vandy and Kentucky and Miss State
 
Just to put a bow on this week comparing it to the last several years as posted earlier in the thread:

Friday 11/25/16 Upsets (7)
Missouri+8, TCU+3, Air Force+7, Southern Miss+16, North Carolina St+9', Memphis+4, Texas Tech+4 (note Arizona closed-1)
ATS 5 favs - 9 dogs

Saturday 11/26/16 Upsets (12)
Georgia Tech+4', Kentucky+28', ULL+6, Boston College+3, Mississippi St+10, Nevada+10, Oregon St+1, UTEP+4, Cal+3, Vanderbilt+7', Colorado St+11', New Mexico+3
ATS 19 favs - 22 dogs - 1 push

Most upsets this weekend than we've seen in last 5 years.
 
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booksbestfriend said:
Bowls are a different animal. Hard to tell who is going to give max effort.
Click to expand...

Very true, but if memory serves, if there is going to be a team who may be short on the effort/motivation side in bowls more often than not it is the favorite. I believe that underdogs do very well in bowls and there are always lots of upsets. A bowl ML thread is a must!
 
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