Week 13 Leans & Plays

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Thanks to a solid start, last week was profitable. On to this week...


'an_horse'


Week 13 Plays

NC State +11 (-110) [1 Unit] :D

Wake Forest -2 (-105) [1 Unit] :mad:

Utah -2.5 (-110) [1 Unit]** :D

BYU +7 (-105) [1 Unit] :mad:

Michigan State +14.5 (-110) [1 Unit] :mad:

Buffalo +3.5 (-110) [0.8 Units] :D

Central Michigan +7 (-110) [0.8 Units] :rolleyes:

Miami +3.5 (-115) [0.5 Units] :mad:

& a few ML plays...

San Diego State +310 [0.5 Units] :D

Buffalo +155 [0.5 Units] :D

Central Michigan +200 [0.3 Units] :mad:


'an_horse'


NOTE - ** = Game bet earlier this year on the GOY Lines at Sportsbook.com.


Week 13 Leans

Air Force +18.5

Wake Forest -1


'an_horse'


All feedback on my leans will be greatly appreciated. Best of luck this week fellas!


:cheers:
 
Last edited:
pags11 said:
so much for my Navy play...my bad aztec...GL this week bud...
Click to expand...

No need to apologize bro. Not like you put a gun to my head and forced me...I liked both AF and Navy last week. It happens...that's why it's called gambling.

Thanks, and GL this week! Lookin forward to reading your thoughts.

:cheers:
 
nice utah grab...any thoughts on middling that thing?

leanin the other way on those mac games.

i think the cmu offense hasn't been nearly as explosive for whatever reason -- a lot probably has to do with lefevour not 100% much of the year. you have a terrible cmu defense that ball state should be able to go nuts on. ball state's offense improved, ball state's defense improved and remembers the 58 cmu put up last year, and cmu's offense not as effective. and it's tough to have a good solid hfa when your defense gives up a td every drive. think it's time for a changing of the guards and for ball state to put their stamp on the mac emphatically

i have really liked buff for the most part all year, but every explosive offense they've faced they've struggled. cmu, western mich, temple have a lot of speed at their skills positions and rely on explosive plays rather than grind it out running the football. they struggled in all 3 of those games, losing 2 of 3 and needing a hail mary to win the other. miami, akron, ohio don't have that same explosiveness imo. bg obviously does, and their defense has improved from last year despite some of these numbers imo. they went into the blue turf and held the smurfs to 20, so i would think they can hold buffalo in that range, and tehy will surely be in the 30s. last year in buffalo they scored 31 and had an extremely efficient game on the road. bg is playing at home for bowl eligibility and a share of 1st in the mac east. i like the falcons here. maybe the over as well.


bol with what you decide, aztec
 
Thanks alot for the input joe! I definitely understand your reasoning behind liking Ball State...however, I feel that the Chips are a team that keep it close in any game they play. Not to mention, Central Michigan has had a tougher schedule this season than Ball State. Don't forget...NIU wouldn't have come back if not for that fog/2 onside kick recoveries last week...that's the only reason CMU was ice cold on offense, and NIU had so many offensive posessions. I think LeFevour and Co. had the ball 3 times in the 2nd Half, scoring a TD, and stalling on the other two drives...I wasn't surprised considering the TOP...they just got out of a rhythm. I'll take my chances with the home team getting a full TD.

Haven't played Buffalo yet, as their this will be their 2nd consecutive road game after that 4OT thriller last week. Not too concerned about last year's game, as the game was alot closer than the score indicated.

I'm contemplating going for a middle in the BYU/Utah game. What do you think? Line sit's at 6.5 right now. Really wish it was 7.

:shake:
 
ehhh looks like we're going to be against each other during the midweek with this CMU game
 
Ugh. Well, hopefully CMU works out for me, and Ball State works out for you...someway, somehow.

Yeah, Buffalo has been real, real good to me this season. I'll keep riding that gravy train until it derails.

Thanks ETG, and GL bud!

:cheers:
 
Tailing you on MSU and Utah, my friend. :-)

I'm also leaning Texas Tech +6. I think they can exploit weaknesses in the Oklahoma D pretty much at will. Might be one of those games that whoever has the ball last, wins.

Looking forward to it. Good luck Aztec!
 
Thanks Kristin! I lean TT as well, as I think the game will be similar to Texas/TT.

Best of luck this week!

:cheers:
 
Reasoning...

Michigan St +14.5 --> Are you kidding me? I know Penn State has been great this year, but MSU is a damn good football team...not to mention HUNTDOG is on them this week.

Central Michigan +7 --> Simply put, Dan LeFevour is awesome, as is much more of a dual threat than Davis. No way does Ball State blow out the Chips, as I firmly believe Central Michigan will keep the game close (at home), win or lose. It's all or nothing here, as Ball State & CMU essentially duke it out for the MAC West Title.

Buffalo +3.5 --> Even after their emotionally draining, 4OT win at Akron last week, I still think the Bulls will win this won SU. The Bulls are on a mission this season. IMO, of all Bowling Green's opponents this year, Buffalo has the best passing attack. Sheehan is good, but Willy and Roosevelt continue to impress me week in and week out. On top of that, James Starks is a BEAST, and should put up big numbers against an unimpressive Falcon defense. The Bulls win this, and they secure a spot in the MAC Championship game.


'an_horse'
 
Also in the same boat with the utah line. I put a little under 4 units on it and plan to hedge a minimum of 2 and likely 3 of it. Trying to figure out if it moves to 7, but I doubt it. Think it probably comes back down honestly. BOL in whatever you decide Aztec. And lastly sorry about the beatdown last weekend. Those two pic 6's sure made the score alot more lopsided than the game was.
 
JPicks said:
Also in the same boat with the utah line. I put a little under 4 units on it and plan to hedge a minimum of 2 and likely 3 of it. Trying to figure out if it moves to 7, but I doubt it. Think it probably comes back down honestly. BOL in whatever you decide Aztec. And lastly sorry about the beatdown last weekend. Those two pic 6's sure made the score alot more lopsided than the game was.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro. It's alright. . we're used to the beat-downs at this point.

GL buddy!

:cheers:
 
Well, I sure like NC State and Michigan St.
Your lean toward WF, I'm not sure how to chime in.
BC has done better than I would have thought this year; Wake has done worse.
Is Swank back yet?
If so, Wake has HUGE edge in kicking game. They may have BIG edge even without him
BC defense very tough with a lot of no names after last year when they had some AAs and close to AAs with guys like Silva and Dunbar.
The BC linebackers are very very good.
Crane is no Matt Ryan but he seems to be getting the job done at QB.
Their running game is much better this year.
Final comment: I doubt if BC would need to go OT to beat Duke this year.
Having said all that, pags is on Wake so GL whatever you decide.
 
bull - Per pags and a few injury reports, Swank has only started kicking nerf balls this week...so, he'll probably be doubtful or questionable at best for the game. Even then, I still think Wake has a big edge in kicking, as we're all well aware of BC's issues in that department this year.

Honestly, I LOVE betting Grobe & WF at home. If not for that nightmareish game against Navy WAY back in September (when WF lost the turnover battle 6-2, yet only lost the game 24-17), Wake would be 5-0 at home. Simply put, I like the Deamon Deacons defense...and Skinner usually finds a way to win. Combine that, with home field and the kicking game, and I'll take my chances.

Also, Crane has been turnover prone this year...10 TDs and 13 INTs. Compare that to Skinner, who's got 11 TDs and only 5 INTs. Skinner has much more experience, and this is do or die for Wake, though the same could be said for BC.

Also, Adams appears to be getting healthy, and if Swank does return this week, it's a HUGE boost for the WF special teams and kicking game.

If it were over a field goal, I'd be much more hesitant...but less than 3? I like it.

Thanks for the thoughts bud, and GL!

:cheers:
 
aztec,

completely agree with your analysis on the B.C. vs. Wake Forest game...I like the Williams kid who has emerged as a second receiving thread to go with Boldin...it appears to me that Skinner's shoulder is finally 100% and he's looking like his normal self now...
 
pags - Glad we're on the same page there bro. I'm just waiting til Friday to pounce on the line. Hoping it will shift back in my favor...

:shake:

Almost forgot...added a small ML play...

Central Michigan +200 [0.3 Units] :mad:


'an_horse'
 
Last edited:
Well I see 7's today for BYU. I'd hedge that thing for sure now. I put 2 units on the +7 and 1 unit on +7.5 (-20c) while keeping 1 unit on the 2.5. Think this will be a close one as 10/11 in the series have been decided by a TD or less with the 2004 Utes being the only one that wasn't. BOL this weekend Aztec.
 
JPicks said:
Well I see 7's today for BYU. I'd hedge that thing for sure now. I put 2 units on the +7 and 1 unit on +7.5 (-20c) while keeping 1 unit on the 2.5. Think this will be a close one as 10/11 in the series have been decided by a TD or less with the 2004 Utes being the only one that wasn't. BOL this weekend Aztec.
Click to expand...

Just did it bro. Thanks for the heads up.

:shake:

Added...

BYU +7 (-105) [1 Unit]


'an_horse'
 
good lookin card aztec...agree on all except buff. why the lean to AF may i ask? i think it's a little inflated for my liking on tcu, but i was leaning on that way earlier in the week and would like a view from the other side. can't see how AF has success moving the ball at all. can they get to 10 points? if they can, will that be enough? not sure...
 
Thanks joe! I'll address my thoughts on AF in your thread when I get the chance.

GL this week!

Added...

Miami +3.5 (-115) [0.5 Units]


'an_horse'
 
Thanks Yanks! Yeah, glad I've got a solid chance to middle. Hopping for a Utah victory by 3.

GL bro!

:cheers:
 
Azzie, proabably a smart move playing the entire Holy War back the other way; usually a close game, right?

G/L this week.
 
horses - Most definitely bro. I will be surprised if either team win by more than a TD.

GL buddy!

:cheers:
 
That Buffalo win was unquestionably the most satisfying comback win I've ever experienced!

:smiley_acbe:
 
good job on Buffalo. saw your guy's in game thread, that game was nuts. :cheers:

good luck on the plays tomorrow too. :shake:
 
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