Week 13 in the FCS

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Thursday, November 20

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Nicholls at Southeastern La.	7:00pm	ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State	7:30pm	ESPN+

Saturday, November 22

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Wagner at LIU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Mercyhurst at CCSU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
NC Central at Morgan State	12:00pm	ESPN+
Dartmouth at Brown	12:00pm	ESPN+
Western Carolina at VMI	12:00pm	Nexstar/ESPN+
UAlbany at Monmouth	12:00pm	FloSports
Bryant at Stony Brook	12:00pm	FloSports
Samford at 3 Texas A&M	12:00pm	SECN+
Harvard at Yale	12:00pm	ESPNU
Fordham at Merrimack	12:00pm	ESPN+
Lehigh at Lafayette	12:30pm	ESPN+
San Diego at Stetson	1:00pm	ESPN+
Columbia at Cornell	1:00pm	ESPN+
Saint Francis U. at Stonehill	1:00pm	NEC Front Row
Valparaiso at Butler	1:00pm	FloSports
Princeton at Penn	1:00pm	ESPN+
Morehead State at Drake	1:00pm	ESPN+
Marist at Presbyterian	1:00pm	ESPN+
Bucknell at Colgate	1:00pm	ESPN+
Murray State at Indiana State	1:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Illinois at Illinois State	1:00pm	MSN/ESPN+
Campbell at Towson	1:00pm	FloSports
Hampton at Rhode Island	1:00pm	FloSports
Maine at New Hampshire	1:00pm	FloSports
Richmond at William & Mary	1:00pm	MASN/FloSports
Sacred Heart at Villanova	1:00pm	FloSports
The Citadel at ETSU	1:00pm	ESPN+
SC State at Delaware State	1:00pm	ESPN+
UT Martin at Tennessee Tech	1:00pm	ESPN+
UAPB at Alabama State	1:00pm	theGrio
Dayton at Davidson	1:00pm	ESPN+
Western Illinois at Gardner-Webb	1:30pm	ESPN+
Chattanooga at Wofford	1:30pm	ESPN+
Portland State at Northern Colorado	2:00pm	ESPN+
Duquesne at Robert Morris	2:00pm	SNP/NEC Front Row
Tennessee State at Charleston So.	2:00pm	ESPN+
Lindenwood at Southeast Missouri	2:00pm	ESPN+
North Carolina A&T at Elon	2:00pm	FloSports/My48
Southern Utah at North Alabama	2:00pm	WAFF-48/ESPN+
Youngstown State at Northern Iowa	2:00pm	ESPN+
South Dakota State at North Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+
Mercer at Auburn	2:00pm	SECN+
Montana State at Montana	2:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Eastern Illinois at 4 Alabama	2:00pm	SECN+
MVSU at Prairie View A&M	3:00pm	SWAC TV
UIW at HCU	3:00pm	ESPN+
Alabama A&M at Texas Southern	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Northern Arizona at Weber State	3:00pm	ESPN+
St. Thomas at North Dakota State	3:30pm	ABC ND/ESPN+
Norfolk State at Howard	3:30pm	ESPN+
Bethune-Cookman vs Florida A&M (in Orlando, FL)	3:30pm	ESPN+
Alcorn State at Jackson State	3:30pm	ESPN+
Eastern Kentucky at Utah Tech	4:00pm	ESPN+
Georgetown vs Holy Cross (in Boston, MA)	4:00pm	NESN/ESPN+
McNeese at Lamar	4:00pm	ESPN+
Idaho State at Idaho	4:00pm	SWX/ESPN+
Sacramento State at UC Davis	4:00pm	CW Sac/ESPN+
Furman at Clemson	4:30pm	The CW
Abilene Christian at Central Arkansas	5:00pm	ESPN+
Austin Peay at Tarleton State	5:00pm	ESPN+
Eastern Washington at Cal Poly	5:00pm	ESPN+
East Texas A&M at UTRGV	6:00pm	ESPN+

A few FCS vs P4 FBS games: Samford at Texas A&M, Mercer at Auburn, Eastern Illinois at Alabama, Furman at Clemson

Lots of rivalry and big games:

The Game - Harvard at Yale will decide the Ivy Title. Ivy League has never broken ties before, without looking, I assume they will respect head-to-head in the event of a tie this year since the playoff is involved now and an autobid (unless they do something dumb like the highest ranked team wins the tie-breaker). This year, if Yale beats Harvard they will each be 6-1 in league play and in the past, even though Yale would've won head-to-head, Ivy just always shared it and ignored head-to-head outcomes. Harvard wins the point is mute anyway.

The Rivalry - the 161st meeting of the most played rivalry in college football Lehigh at Lafayette will be for the Patriot League title and the playoff autobid.

Even though CCSU lost to Duquesne last week, if the Blue Devils beat Mercyhurst they will repeat as NEC Champions. Duquesne can only win the championship with a win and a CCSU loss.

Drake wins the Pioneer championship and playoff auto-bid with a win.

Rhode Island can clinch their first ever outright CAA title with a win.

South Carolina State at Delaware State will decide the MEAC Champion and Celebration Bowl representative.

UT Martin at Tennessee Tech will be for the OVC/Big South title and the playoff auto-bid.

#2 vs #3 Montana vs Montana State - Cat-Griz, Brawl of the Wild...for the Big Sky Title and likely the #2 seed

Jackson wins the SWAC East with a win

Abilene Chrisitan wins the UCA with a win. Tarleton will win the UAC if they win and ACU loses.

Lots of other important games, The Causeway Classic between Sac State and UC Davis could be playoff elimination. South Dakota State likely misses the playoff with a loss at North Dakota. YSU may need to win at Northern Iowa, a place they have not won at since Bill Clinton was President to secure their playoff spot.

A couple Thursday games....Southeastern Louisiana hosts Nicholls in the River Bell Classic - SLU is slumping towards the end of their season with the loss to Lamar putting them squarely on the playoff bubble and they struggled with a 10-7 win at UIW last week. SLU's loss to Lamar would seem to give the Cardinals a leg up for an at-large pick over SLU, that is assuming Lamar wins the Battle of the Border vs McNeese. Hard to really justify a weak league like SLC getting 3 playoff teams, but I don't know the math on all the bubble teams.

The other Thursday game features SFA who won their first conference championship since 2010, they travel to Northwestern State.

Will be a fun weekend of games.

 

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Massey

Date	Team	Standing	Scr	Pred	Pwin	Margin	Total
Thu 11.20 7:00.PM.ET	Nicholls St @ SE Louisiana	# 61 (4-7) # 22 (8-3)	0 0	14 31	7 % 93 %	-16.5	45.5
Thu 11.20	SF Austin @ Northwestern LA	# 14 (9-2) # 122 (1-10)	0 0	42 7	100 % 0 %	-35.5	50.5
Sat 11.22 12:00.PM.ET	Samford @ Texas A&M	# 98 (1-10) (10-0)	0 0	3 55	0 % 100 %	-51.5	56.5
Sat 11.22 12:00.PM.ET	SUNY Albany @ Monmouth NJ	# 103 (1-10) # 23 (9-2)	0 0	21 42	10 % 90 %	-20.5	62.5
Sat 11.22 12:00.PM.ET	Bryant @ Stony Brook	# 89 (3-8) # 54 (5-6)	0 0	24 35	18 % 82 %	-11.5	56.5
Sat 11.22 12:00.PM.ET	Harvard @ Yale	# 7 (9-0) # 24 (7-2)	0 0	30 27	60 % 40 %	-3.5	56.5
Sat 11.22 12:30.PM.ET	Lehigh @ Lafayette	# 11 (11-0) # 37 (8-3)	0 0	30 24	66 % 34 %	-5.5	57.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Valparaiso @ Butler	# 127 (2-9) # 95 (5-6)	0 0	16 37	6 % 94 %	-20.5	53.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Campbell @ Towson	# 93 (2-9) # 58 (5-6)	0 0	21 31	22 % 78 %	-9.5	55.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Dayton @ Davidson	# 97 (6-4) # 126 (2-9)	0 0	34 20	85 % 15 %	-13.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Georgetown @ Holy Cross Boston MA	# 84 (6-5) # 73 (2-9)	0 0	14 31	6 % 94 %	-17.5	47.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Hampton @ Rhode Island	# 118 (2-9) # 20 (9-2)	0 0	10 41	1 % 99 %	-31.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Murray St @ Indiana St	# 101 (0-11) # 68 (3-8)	0 0	27 34	31 % 69 %	-6.5	61.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Maine @ New Hampshire	# 49 (6-5) # 30 (7-4)	0 0	20 30	19 % 81 %	-9.5	49.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Marist @ Presbyterian	# 112 (5-6) # 81 (9-2)	0 0	19 29	17 % 83 %	-9.5	48.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	San Diego @ Stetson	# 70 (7-4) # 129 (3-8)	0 0	44 14	98 % 2 %	-29.5	57.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	TN Martin @ Tennessee Tech	# 35 (6-5) # 13 (10-1)	0 0	23 31	24 % 76 %	-7.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Sacred Heart @ Villanova	# 76 (8-3) # 16 (8-2)	0 0	14 38	3 % 97 %	-24.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 1:00.PM.ET	Richmond @ William & Mary	# 51 (6-5) # 39 (7-4)	0 0	21 27	32 % 68 %	-5.5	52.5
Sat 11.22 1:30.PM.ET	W Illinois @ Gardner Webb	# 91 (3-8) # 34 (7-4)	0 0	24 37	20 % 80 %	-12.5	65.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	E Illinois @ Alabama	# 86 (3-8) (8-2)	0 0	0 55	0 % 100 %	-54.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	Mercer @ Auburn	# 10 (9-1) (4-6)	0 0	10 42	1 % 99 %	-31.5	52.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	NC A&T @ Elon	# 116 (2-9) # 45 (5-6)	0 0	14 38	3 % 97 %	-24.5	54.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	Tennessee St @ Charleston So	# 107 (2-9) # 64 (4-7)	0 0	14 24	12 % 88 %	-9.5	40.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	Youngstown St @ Northern Iowa	# 17 (7-4) # 43 (3-8)	0 0	30 24	66 % 34 %	-5.5	58.5
Sat 11.22 2:00.PM.ET	Morehead St @ Drake	# 120 (6-5) # 55 (7-3)	0 0	9 35	1 % 99 %	-26.5	46.5
Sat 11.22 3:00.PM.ET	Ark Pine Bluff @ Alabama St	# 123 (3-7) # 57 (8-2)	0 0	14 42	2 % 98 %	-28.5	56.5
Sat 11.22 3:00.PM.ET	Incarnate Word @ Houston Chr	# 42 (4-7) # 111 (2-9)	0 0	35 14	95 % 5 %	-21.5	52.5
Sat 11.22 3:00.PM.ET	Alabama A&M @ TX Southern	# 117 (4-7) # 110 (5-5)	0 0	28 31	41 % 59 %	-3.5	58.5
Sat 11.22 3:30.PM.ET	Bethune-Cookman Florida A&M Orlando FL	# 106 (5-6) # 100 (5-5)	0 0	30 31	49 % 51 %	-0.5	61.5
Sat 11.22 4:30.PM.ET	Furman @ Clemson	# 56 (6-5) (5-5)	0 0	3 48	0 % 100 %	-44.5	53.5
Sat 11.22 5:00.PM.ET	E Washington @ Cal Poly	# 33 (5-6) # 52 (3-8)	0 0	30 27	59 % 41 %	-3.5	57.5
Sat 11.22	CS Sacramento @ UC Davis	# 19 (7-4) # 9 (7-3)	0 0	28 33	36 % 64 %	-5.5	62.5
Sat 11.22	Citadel @ ETSU	# 69 (4-7) # 38 (6-5)	0 0	20 31	18 % 82 %	-10.5	51.5
Sat 11.22	Alcorn St @ Jackson St	# 115 (5-6) # 50 (8-2)	0 0	14 34	5 % 95 %	-19.5	49.5
Sat 11.22	Abilene Chr @ Cent Arkansas	# 15 (7-4) # 59 (3-8)	0 0	31 24	73 % 27 %	-7.5	58.5
Sat 11.22	Dartmouth @ Brown	# 28 (7-2) # 67 (4-5)	0 0	31 24	70 % 30 %	-6.5	54.5
Sat 11.22	S Carolina St @ Delaware St	# 44 (8-3) # 80 (8-3)	0 0	34 27	73 % 27 %	-7.5	60.5
Sat 11.22	E Kentucky @ Utah Tech	# 41 (4-7) # 72 (2-9)	0 0	27 21	72 % 28 %	-5.5	44.5
Sat 11.22	Duquesne @ Robert Morris	# 82 (6-5) # 114 (3-8)	0 0	28 21	75 % 25 %	-7.5	52.5
Sat 11.22	Idaho St @ Idaho	# 32 (5-6) # 29 (4-7)	0 0	24 31	27 % 73 %	-7.5	58.5
Sat 11.22	S Illinois @ Illinois St	# 21 (6-5) # 12 (8-3)	0 0	31 34	46 % 54 %	-2.5	64.5
Sat 11.22	McNeese St @ Lamar	# 74 (4-7) # 31 (8-3)	0 0	20 27	23 % 77 %	-7.5	46.5
Sat 11.22	Austin Peay @ Tarleton St	# 25 (7-4) # 4 (10-1)	0 0	24 38	19 % 81 %	-13.5	64.5
Sat 11.22	MS Valley St @ Prairie View	# 128 (1-9) # 79 (8-3)	0 0	14 41	2 % 98 %	-26.5	50.5
Sat 11.22	Southern Utah @ North Alabama	# 26 (6-5) # 83 (2-9)	0 0	38 27	78 % 22 %	-11.5	67.5
Sat 11.22	NC Central @ Morgan St	# 65 (7-4) # 109 (4-7)	0 0	34 24	78 % 22 %	-9.5	56.5
Sat 11.22	St Thomas MN @ N Dakota St	# 77 (7-4) # 1 (11-0)	0 0	6 45	0 % 100 %	-38.5	51.5
Sat 11.22	Portland St @ N Colorado	# 85 (1-10) # 71 (3-8)	0 0	27 30	43 % 57 %	-2.5	56.5
Sat 11.22	St Francis PA @ Stonehill	# 124 (0-10) # 108 (3-8)	0 0	19 23	34 % 66 %	-3.5	41.5
Sat 11.22	S Dakota St @ North Dakota	# 5 (7-4) # 6 (7-4)	0 0	26 24	54 % 46 %	-2.5	49.5
Sat 11.22	Chattanooga @ Wofford	# 46 (5-6) # 48 (5-6)	0 0	23 24	49 % 51 %	-0.5	46.5
Sat 11.22	W Carolina @ VMI	# 40 (6-5) # 119 (1-10)	0 0	42 21	89 % 11 %	-20.5	66.5
Sat 11.22	Wagner @ LIU Post	# 105 (5-6) # 87 (5-6)	0 0	14 25	9 % 91 %	-10.5	39.5
Sat 11.22	Lindenwood @ SE Missouri St	# 63 (5-6) # 60 (4-7)	0 0	24 31	32 % 68 %	-6.5	58.5
Sat 11.22	East Texas A&M @ UTRGV	# 92 (3-8) # 36 (8-3)	0 0	24 41	17 % 83 %	-16.5	68.5
Sat 11.22	Mercyhurst @ Central Conn	# 99 (5-6) # 78 (7-4)	0 0	20 31	16 % 84 %	-10.5	50.5
Sat 11.22	Bucknell @ Colgate	# 88 (5-6) # 75 (4-7)	0 0	28 35	32 % 68 %	-6.5	64.5
Sat 11.22	Northern Arizona @ Weber St	# 18 (7-4) # 53 (3-8)	0 0	35 28	70 % 30 %	-7.5	62.5
Sat 11.22	Fordham @ Merrimack	# 104 (1-10) # 94 (3-8)	0 0	20 26	30 % 70 %	-5.5	46.5
Sat 11.22	Montana St @ Montana	# 2 (9-2) # 3 (11-0)	0 0	35 28	68 % 32 %	-6.5	63.5
Sat 11.22	Columbia @ Cornell	# 90 (1-8) # 66 (4-5)	0 0	21 27	29 % 71 %	-6.5	44.5
Sat 11.22	Norfolk St @ Howard	# 121 (1-10) # 102 (4-7)	0 0	23 28	33 % 67 %	-5.5	51.5
Sat 11.22	Princeton @ Penn	# 62 (3-6) # 47 (5-4)	0 0	24 27	43 % 57 %	-2.5	54.5

Massey Ratings - CF Games

CF,College Football,FCS, game scores, schedules, and predictions

masseyratings.com

 

[s--k]

Sagarin

HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.67 3.54 3.73 3.74 3.74

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL



7 Stephen F. Austin 29.38 28.58 28.18 36.49 43.45 @ Northwestern State 1581 94% 5.87 44.88 50.76

8 @ SE Louisiana 17.99 18.28 16.54 21.32 25.11 Nicholls State 616 86% 34.99 11.97 46.96

12 @ Alabama 55.21 55.19 56.26 61.22 63.74 Eastern Illinois 5010 98% 56.35 -8.54 47.81

16 @ Auburn 19.12 20.35 18.80 20.33 14.75 Mercer 681 87% 37.70 14.43 52.13

20 @ Clemson 40.73 42.83 36.34 49.03 49.42 Furman 3100 97% 47.39 3.50 50.89

53 @ Texas A&M 58.51 55.80 63.13 64.89 69.61 Samford 5398 98% 62.02 -6.93 55.10

67 @ Alabama State 27.05 26.34 25.64 32.69 40.45 Ark.-Pine Bluff 1327 93% 44.18 12.94 57.12

68 N @ Bethune-Cookman 2.68 3.33 0.52 4.87 7.53 Florida A&M 135 57% 35.27 21.56 56.83

69 Dartmouth 5.39 5.22 6.73 5.27 4.94 @ Brown 181 64% 24.18 26.69 50.87

70 @ Butler 16.34 14.06 16.49 21.12 26.79 Valparaiso 530 84% 36.75 18.14 54.89

71 @ Cal Poly-SLO 0.20 1.77 0.51 -2.36 -2.05 Eastern Washington 102 51% 30.92 19.99 50.90

72 Abilene Christian 5.18 5.59 6.13 5.06 7.27 @ Central Arkansas 177 64% 21.58 32.79 54.37

73 @ Central Connecticut 9.72 9.38 9.76 10.88 12.61 Mercyhurst 282 74% 28.41 20.31 48.72

74 @ Charleston Southern 13.80 12.44 13.31 17.21 23.64 Tennessee State 418 81% 30.39 9.13 39.52

75 @ Colgate 8.80 8.64 7.50 11.33 11.87 Bucknell 257 72% 38.16 23.60 61.75

76 @ Cornell 9.79 8.72 10.09 11.46 15.96 Columbia 283 74% 28.16 15.90 44.06

77 Dayton 10.40 9.30 9.94 14.11 19.41 @ Davidson 301 75% 16.61 36.18 52.79

78 SC State 2.90 2.83 2.93 3.88 3.08 @ Delaware State 138 58% 28.26 30.40 58.66

79 @ Drake 19.73 18.99 18.15 24.57 29.28 Morehead State 720 88% 38.60 9.30 47.90

80 @ East Tennessee State 13.40 12.78 11.89 17.09 21.61 The Citadel 402 80% 33.36 17.83 51.19

81 @ Elon 20.87 21.00 21.18 22.71 25.87 NC A&T 795 89% 41.25 12.79 54.04

82 @ Gardner-Webb 15.02 12.91 16.99 16.67 19.69 Western Illinois 468 82% 37.63 21.73 59.36

83 @ Holy Cross 9.09 10.32 8.24 9.47 7.32 Georgetown 264 73% 29.31 16.60 45.91

84 Incarnate Word 14.85 14.50 14.30 18.45 21.87 @ Houston Christian 461 82% 17.37 31.50 48.87

85 @ Howard 5.44 3.52 9.20 4.34 2.59 Norfolk State 182 65% 26.87 21.61 48.48

86 @ Idaho 5.51 5.32 4.27 7.32 4.93 Idaho State 183 65% 26.90 24.83 51.73

87 @ Illinois State 8.02 6.10 8.61 10.12 13.83 Southern Illinois 237 70% 32.00 28.74 60.75

88 @ Indiana State 11.35 9.49 14.69 11.10 11.14 Murray State 330 77% 33.44 24.82 58.27

89 @ Jackson State 17.39 16.29 19.14 18.66 19.26 Alcorn State 583 85% 33.29 14.97 48.26

90 Lehigh 7.58 7.43 7.90 9.06 12.39 @ Lafayette 227 69% 22.71 32.24 54.96

91 @ Lamar 12.47 10.03 14.48 14.08 17.29 McNeese State 368 79% 28.87 15.62 44.49

92 @ LIU Post 10.04 9.51 10.04 11.48 13.18 Wagner 291 74% 26.30 13.46 39.76

93 @ Merrimack 8.64 8.11 7.92 10.70 13.97 Fordham 253 72% 28.48 15.07 43.54

94 @ Monmouth-NJ 24.83 21.89 25.03 31.08 39.33 Albany-NY 1112 92% 43.70 15.51 59.21

95 Montana State 4.53 6.13 0.39 8.56 10.68 @ Montana 165 62% 24.39 33.72 58.12

96 NC Central 4.43 3.75 7.54 3.23 1.83 @ Morgan State 163 62% 25.45 29.05 54.50

97 @ New Hampshire 11.55 12.02 11.43 12.32 14.16 Maine 337 77% 29.23 17.30 46.53

98 Southern Utah 14.07 14.02 13.06 17.71 22.19 @ North Alabama 429 81% 21.75 40.44 62.19

99 @ North Dakota 8.02 7.75 4.75 12.55 19.34 South Dakota State 237 70% 30.08 17.50 47.59

100 @ North Dakota State 29.24 28.65 34.25 28.18 26.14 St. Thomas-Mn. 1565 94% 41.80 9.90 51.70

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL

101 @ Northern Colorado 7.74 6.90 6.89 10.48 13.76 Portland State 231 70% 32.36 20.08 52.44

102 Youngstown State 8.73 8.48 8.55 10.97 14.19 @ Northern Iowa 255 72% 21.48 32.94 54.42

103 @ Pennsylvania 3.37 2.40 4.09 3.56 4.54 Princeton 145 59% 28.00 25.29 53.30

104 @ Prairie View A&M 26.57 24.47 26.31 32.58 43.45 Miss. Valley State 1278 93% 38.55 9.54 48.10

105 @ Presbyterian College 14.08 13.43 15.71 14.44 16.04 Marist 429 81% 32.18 13.93 46.11

106 @ Rhode Island 31.52 29.43 31.69 37.67 48.67 Hampton 1838 95% 48.80 6.38 55.18

107 Duquesne 6.59 5.84 6.79 8.69 10.63 @ Robert Morris 205 67% 21.48 31.66 53.14

108 @ SE Missouri State 4.76 4.36 3.85 6.33 4.30 Lindenwood 169 63% 28.24 25.36 53.60

109 San Diego 16.27 15.38 14.59 22.70 31.99 @ Stetson 526 84% 13.52 41.83 55.35

110 @ Stonehill College 7.19 5.58 10.25 6.20 9.90 Saint Francis-Pa. 218 69% 28.43 12.64 41.07

111 @ Stony Brook 16.31 14.53 15.18 21.25 26.79 Bryant 528 84% 34.41 17.78 52.19

112 @ Tarleton State 19.03 18.93 17.70 22.80 28.34 Austin Peay 676 87% 42.45 19.54 61.98

113 @ Tennessee Tech 13.58 13.31 13.40 15.52 19.02 Tennessee-Martin 409 80% 38.78 14.84 53.62

114 @ Texas Southern 7.61 8.29 6.55 8.69 11.96 Alabama A&M 228 69% 34.62 21.12 55.74

115 @ Towson 12.32 12.27 12.63 13.25 14.55 Campbell 363 78% 32.67 18.83 51.50

116 @ UC Davis 6.72 5.01 9.55 5.88 5.48 Sacramento State 208 68% 33.12 26.72 59.84

117 Eastern Kentucky 4.62 4.26 4.64 6.16 6.69 @ Utah Tech 167 62% 19.42 21.15 40.56

118 @ Villanova 17.67 17.46 18.10 19.52 17.88 Sacred Heart 598 86% 35.56 20.16 55.72

119 Western Carolina 18.10 17.16 17.95 22.39 27.41 @ VMI 622 86% 21.87 41.99 63.86

120 Northern Arizona 8.96 9.35 7.65 12.08 16.42 @ Weber State 261 72% 23.35 36.27 59.61

121 @ William & Mary 10.60 10.65 9.35 13.02 17.49 Richmond 307 75% 31.50 20.37 51.87

122 @ Wofford 4.85 5.28 3.17 6.36 10.48 Chattanooga 171 63% 25.84 20.31 46.15

123 Harvard 2.03 2.57 2.75 1.48 1.79 @ Yale 125 56% 23.92 28.85 52.76

124 @ UTRGV 14.80 13.67 14.55 17.91 23.45 East Texas A&M 459 82% 44.76 20.77 65.54

College Football Ratings Page

 

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Reddit

11/20: Nicholls @ Southeastern -18.5 (O/U 49)

11/20: Stephen F. Austin -36.5 @ Northwestern St (O/U 51)

11/22: Abilene Christian -12 @ Central Arkansas (O/U 54.5)

11/22: Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -6 (O/U 54.5)

11/22: UAlbany @ Monmouth -25.5 (O/U 56.5)

11/22: Alcorn State @ Jackson State -20 (O/U 51.5)

11/22: UAPB @ Alabama State -29 (O/U 56.5)

11/22: Austin Peay @ Tarleton -18 (O/U 57.5)

11/22: Bethune-Cookman -6.5 vs. Florida A&M (O/U 56.5)

11/22: Bryant @ Stony Brook -13.5 (O/U 53)

11/22: Bucknell @ Colgate -9.5 (O/U 57.5)

11/22: Campbell @ Towson -10.5 (O/U 54.5)

11/22: Chattanooga @ Wofford -4.5 (O/U 52)

11/22: Columbia @ Cornell -8.5 (O/U 49)

11/22: Dartmouth -6 @ Brown (O/U 51)

11/22: Dayton -18.5 @ Davidson (O/U 52)

11/22: Duquesne -11 @ Robert Morris (O/U 50.5)

11/22: East Texas A&M @ UTRGV -19.5 (O/U 59.5)

11/22: Eastern Illinois @ Alabama -65.5 (O/U 65.5)

11/22: EKU -4 @ Utah Tech (O/U 48.5)

11/22: Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly -5.5 (O/U 54)

11/22: Fordham @ Merrimack -11 (O/U 49.5)

11/22: Furman @ Clemson -44.5 (O/U 53)

11/22: Georgetown @ Holy Cross -10 (O/U 49.5)

11/22: Hampton @ Rhode Island -35.5 (O/U 53.5)

11/22: Harvard -5.5 @ Yale (O/U 51.5)

11/22: Idaho State @ Idaho -4 (O/U 55)

11/22: UIW -17 @ HCU (O/U 51.5)

11/22: Lehigh -10.5 @ Lafayette (O/U 53.5)

11/22: Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri -3 (O/U 53.5)

11/22: Maine @ New Hampshire -10.5 (O/U 50)

11/22: Marist @ Presbyterian -12.5 (O/U 50.5)

11/22: McNeese @ Lamar -11 (O/U 50)

11/22: Mercer @ Auburn -25 (O/U 53.5)

11/22: Mercyhurst @ CCSU -8.5 (O/U 48.5)

11/22: MVSU @ Prairie View A&M -26.5 (O/U 52)

11/22: Montana State -6 @ Montana (O/U 57.5)

11/22: Morehead State @ Drake -27.5 (O/U 50.5)

11/22: Murray State @ Indiana State -9.5 (O/U 57.5)

11/22: Norfolk State @ Howard -4.5 (O/U 51.5)

11/22: North Carolina A&T @ Elon -24.5 (O/U 56)

11/22: NCCU -11 @ Morgan State (O/U 54.5)

11/22: Northern Arizona -12.5 @ Weber State (O/U 58)

11/22: Portland State @ Northern Colorado -8 (O/U 54.5)

11/22: Princeton @ Penn -2.5 (O/U 53)

11/22: Richmond @ William & Mary -10 (O/U 51.5)

11/22: Sacramento State @ UC Davis -5 (O/U 57.5)

11/22: Sacred Heart @ Villanova -18 (O/U 54.5)

11/22: Samford @ Texas A&M -68 (O/U 68)

11/22: San Diego -30 @ Stetson (O/U 55)

11/22: South Carolina St -5.5 @ Delaware State (O/U 56.5)

11/22: South Dakota State @ North Dakota -7 (O/U 52)

11/22: Southern Illinois @ Illinois State -3 (O/U 58.5)

11/22: Southern Utah -16.5 @ North Alabama (O/U 59.5)

11/22: St. Francis @ Stonehill -10.5 (O/U 45.5)

11/22: St. Thomas @ North Dakota State -33.5 (O/U 52)

11/22: Tennessee St @ Charleston Southern -15 (O/U 47.5)

11/22: UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech -19.5 (O/U 53)

11/22: The Citadel @ ETSU -11.5 (O/U 54)

11/22: Valparaiso @ Butler -20.5 (O/U 53)

11/22: Wagner @ LIU -11 (O/U 44.5)

11/22: Western Carolina -22.5 @ VMI (O/U 59.5)

11/22: Western Illinois @ Gardner-Webb -16 (O/U 56)

11/22: Youngstown State -10.5 @ Northern Iowa (O/U 54)

/r/FCS Sportsbook - 2025

docs.google.com

 

[s--k]

S&P +

Abilene Christian 31.6, Central Arkansas 23.4

Alabama A&M 27.0, Texas Southern 26.0

Alabama State 38.6, UAPB 15.6

Bethune-Cookman 31.7, Florida A&M 27.4

Butler 34.5, Valparaiso 17.0

Cal Poly 28.5, Eastern Washington 27.4

Central Connecticut 28.1, Mercyhurst 12.3

Charleston Southern 26.0, Tennessee State 15.3

Colgate 32.0, Bucknell 26.6

Cornell 26.5, Columbia 15.3

Dartmouth 29.3, Brown 18.1

Dayton 35.0, Davidson 14.2

Delaware State 29.4, SC State 27.8

Drake 34.1, Morehead State 14.4

Duquesne 26.9, Robert Morris 14.1

Eastern Kentucky 26.0, Utah Tech 18.5

Elon 37.2, NC A&T 17.2

ETSU 35.9, The Citadel 20.6

Gardner-Webb 35.4, Western Illinois 20.8

Georgetown 23.8, Holy Cross 22.3

Harvard 27.5, Yale 20.2

Howard 28.5, Norfolk State 20.8

Idaho 32.0, Idaho State 26.9

Illinois State 34.4, Southern Illinois 28.6

Incarnate Word 30.3, Houston Christian 15.2

Indiana State 37.3, Murray State 21.1

Jackson State 33.2, Alcorn State 16.9

Lamar 28.6, McNeese State 16.6

Lehigh 35.2, Lafayette 19.2

Lindenwood 27.2, SE Missouri State 26.4

Long Island 20.6, Wagner 10.9

Merrimack 30.0, Fordham 15.7

Monmouth 47.4, Albany-NY 11.5

Montana 30.2, Montana State 29.6

NC Central 31.0, Morgan State 23.9

New Hampshire 27.5, Maine 20.6

North Dakota 31.6, South Dakota State 20.9

North Dakota State 38.2, St. Thomas 13.9

Northern Arizona 38.8, Weber State 23.7

Northern Colorado 35.0, Portland State 21.0

Penn 28.0, Princeton 21.2

Prairie View A&M 41.2, MVSU 9.0

Presbyterian 33.8, Marist 14.0

Rhode Island 45.5, Hampton 7.1

San Diego 38.5, Stetson 17.3

Southeastern Louisiana 34.3, Nicholls State 9.0

Southern Utah 39.5, North Alabama 21.3

Stephen F. Austin 43.4, Northwestern State 2.3

Stonehill 20.6, Saint Francis-PA 14.3

Stony Brook 35.4, Bryant 17.6

Tarleton State 40.0, Austin Peay 18.7

Tennessee Tech 37.4, UT Martin 12.8

Towson 33.9, Campbell 20.4

UC Davis 32.4, Sacramento State 29.7

UTRGV 38.9, East Texas A&M 16.3

Villanova 33.8, Sacred Heart 20.2

Western Carolina 43.7, VMI 21.5

William & Mary 29.3, Richmond 20.6

Wofford 29.9, Chattanooga 20.1

Youngstown State 35.6, Northern Iowa 20.5

https://x.com/ESPN_BillC

 

[s--k]

 

[carolinablue]

Nothing jumping out at me so far although I did consider Yale 8.5 but didn’t pull the trigger. All the favs I was interested in are inflated unfortunately.

 

[carolinablue]

Lafayette and UTM are two more I considered…

 

[s--k]

Lafayette and UTM are two more I considered…

I took them both. And SDSU-UND Under and UCD ML

 

[s--k]

Shame the SFA line is 35.5. This is the highest FCS dog line NW State has faced. SLU was 'only' -33.5 at home vs them (won 49-0) and SFA is on the road and favored by more and PR would imply SFA and SLU are pretty close. This line is exactly what Massey has 35.5/50.5. Sagarin is lower, Reddit and S&P are actually higher. Think Under could be the best route? Fear would be that SFA just has a 28 1Q or 42 point 1H on them...that probably doesn't happen because SFA hasn't scored more than 29 1H pts on anyone except for Sul Ross and oddly enough, NW State has only allowed 29 max 1H vs FCS all year.

Possiblity that NW State can get shutout in this game depending how the final minutes of the 4Q go. If Nicholls didn't have a 10y punt from their own EZ and didn't muff a punt last week it is very possible that NW State only finishes with 7 pts instead of 21 pts vs them. NW State has been held to 3 pts or fewer 3 of 7 vs SLC (one shutout) and SFA is the best D in the SLC and quietly one of the best Ds in the country. SFA quite possibly are a better team defensively than offensively. Accordingly SFA is 7-2 to the Under vs FCS, 8-2 to the Under overall (avg total 52.5) and NW St avg 9.7ppg in SLC play - which is boosted by the Nicholls game last week thanks to short fields. NW State is only 5-4 vs FCS to the Under because their D can give up 40-50 (SLU 49 - McNeese 50 - Lamar 41 - ET AM 40 - UIW 38). This also feels like a 2H that has very little scoring by either team and the clock just runs and runs. SFA will have the lead to empty the bench as they look towards their playoff game next week assuming they don't get a first round bye, which is doubtful they would. Vidlak has been out with injury and Rutherford is a good backup and has done what they need him to. Vidlak did return for a couple passes briefly last week.

Nobody wants to take NW St thus the 35.5 pt line. Think I would have to lay the 35.5 if I had to, but would rather take my chances on the Under.

 

[s--k]

Tough to figure out SLU's O. They were mowing through the bottom of the SLC from McNeeese, NW State, HCU and ET AM by a combined score of 184-28! (46-7 avg and 418.5 to 200 ypg edge) then they play a good D in Lamar and only manage 12 pts (1 TD, 2 FG and a missed 2pt) with just 292y and lose, then they follow that up with another sub-300y game and score just 10 pts with 296 yards and were outgained by UIW by 85y.

I would think what we thought we knew of SLU could show up again, but am reluctant to bet on them to do so. The O went away, the D still good, but did allow UIW to run for 223 (5.1) and SLU run D has been good vs everyone else, but everyone else and UIW for that matter are incredibly inconsistent on O in this league, most are downright bad.

So I don't know with SLU. Big number. SFA was -14.5 at home vs Nicholls (won 34-7) so hard to think of laying 6 points more with SLU when SLU and SFA are probably equalish from a PR standpoint (they didn't play this year unfortunately) but SLU has struggled the last 2...so we're expected to lay a premium on SLU now vs Nicholls? Can't.

Nicholls +pts? Man, this league is so rough, so bad. SFA, Lamar, SLU are varied degrees of good and UTRGV is in a middle tier by themselves and then the other 4 teams, bad. So Nicholls has some good O games vs the other bad teams, it means nothing really. You can't respect it much. 26 pts on NW State, that's not good. NW State had some short field opportunities to score becasue of Nicholls special team issues, but still, NW State was INT'd at the 1 yard line with :45 left...Nicholls was that close to losing to NW State. Man that is bad. Scored 31 on McNeese and ran for 303 on them, but McNeese isn't any good.

I don't know. I haven't liked this Nicholls O all year and I can't believe they are good enough now. Scored just 7pts and gained just 187y on O vs the other good D they played at SFA. Nicholls O did start well vs the next best D they played in Lamar, 182y and 14pts in their first two possessions but then had nothing after that.

I would think this SLU D that has done a good job vs everyone, except maybe a little bit not great job vs UIW, but still good in terms of limiting points and UTRGV only had 17 pts on them through 3Q and then got a couple garbage time 4Q TDs) - SLU D I can bet shows up here. Nicholls D is better than their O and SLU's recent struggles on O I think leads me to another Under. Nicholls is 6-2 to the Under vs FCS (avg total 45.25). SLU has gone Under 5 of last 6 (avg total 53.16) with point totals in those games being 17, 26, 73, 52, 49 and 38

 

[carolinablue]

Shame the SFA line is 35.5. This is the highest FCS dog line NW State has faced. SLU was 'only' -33.5 at home vs them (won 49-0) and SFA is on the road and favored by more and PR would imply SFA and SLU are pretty close. This line is exactly what Massey has 35.5/50.5. Sagarin is lower, Reddit and S&P are actually higher. Think Under could be the best route? Fear would be that SFA just has a 28 1Q or 42 point 1H on them...that probably doesn't happen because SFA hasn't scored more than 29 1H pts on anyone except for Sul Ross and oddly enough, NW State has only allowed 29 max 1H vs FCS all year.

Possiblity that NW State can get shutout in this game depending how the final minutes of the 4Q go. If Nicholls didn't have a 10y punt from their own EZ and didn't muff a punt last week it is very possible that NW State only finishes with 7 pts instead of 21 pts vs them. NW State has been held to 3 pts or fewer 3 of 7 vs SLC (one shutout) and SFA is the best D in the SLC and quietly one of the best Ds in the country. SFA quite possibly are a better team defensively than offensively. Accordingly SFA is 7-2 to the Under vs FCS, 8-2 to the Under overall (avg total 52.5) and NW St avg 9.7ppg in SLC play - which is boosted by the Nicholls game last week thanks to short fields. NW State is only 5-4 vs FCS to the Under because their D can give up 40-50 (SLU 49 - McNeese 50 - Lamar 41 - ET AM 40 - UIW 38). This also feels like a 2H that has very little scoring by either team and the clock just runs and runs. SFA will have the lead to empty the bench as they look towards their playoff game next week assuming they don't get a first round bye, which is doubtful they would. Vidlak has been out with injury and Rutherford is a good backup and has done what they need him to. Vidlak did return for a couple passes briefly last week.

Nobody wants to take NW St thus the 35.5 pt line. Think I would have to lay the 35.5 if I had to, but would rather take my chances on the Under.

I’m thinking anywhere between 38-0, 38-7, 42-0, 42-7 type game which is why I passed even though I like SFA to crush em in this one. Just no reason for them to risk anything if it’s 28-0 early.

 

[s--k]

 

[s--k]

I took Mercer+29.5. Don’t know anything about Auburn though. Mercer should have a bye in the first round meaning that they could pull out stops to try and get program defining win and Auburn, they are the kind of program that sometimes struggles in these games for whatever reason. I know they have. Line should probably be more like 3TDs rather than 4

 

[carolinablue]

I took Mercer+29.5. Don’t know anything about Auburn though. Mercer should have a bye in the first round meaning that they could pull out stops to try and get program defining win and Auburn, they are the kind of program that sometimes struggles in these games for whatever reason. I know they have. Line should probably be more like 3TDs rather than 4

Mercer is an interesting line and I like the value of anything over 28 so nice grab at 29.5.

 

[s--k]

Auburn likes to keep it in state a lot for their FCS games, which I know people don't really like P4 programs playing FCS still, but if you are going to do it, give the money to a smaller in-state school is good.

The "sometimes struggles" I referred to:

2023 vs Samford (6-5), just 17-0 HT but won 45-13 - Auburn finished 6-7
2017 vs Mercer (finished 5-6), just 10-3 HT won 24-10 - Auburn went 10-4
2015 vs Jacksonville State (played for FCS national title this year), and Jax St led 10-6 HT! but Auburn won 27-20 as 47.5 pt favorites in OT
2014 vs Samford (7-5), just 17-7 HT and Auburn won 31-7 finishing 8-5 that year
2011 vs Samford (6-5), just 14-10 HT before Auburn won 35-16 and went 8-5 that year
2008 vs UT Martin (early in the Jason Simpson tenure, went 3-9), just 20-13 HT, 37-20 Final with Auburn being just 5-7 this year.

Sure Auburn has their share of blowouts vs FCS, not just SWAC, but occasionally some SoCon teams, but there is something about them that seems like they get involved in some of these closer than expected games fairly often.

 

[s--k]

SDSU QB Chase Mason was seen doing 7-on-7 work at practice, reportedly the most active he has been since being injured 10/18. Their playoff lives are on the line. Tough spot and tough game even if he plays. From comments Jack fans have made, the current QB (not the one who started vs NDSU - he's also hurt Marble), but the #3 guy, Henry, they actually seem to like his arm so it's not like they are totally lost at QB without Mason currently. Again, from fan comments not my own opinion, it seems their issue is more with OL play right now and play calling (this is year 1 for the staff and maybe hasn't been as smooth as could've been hoped for as the season wore on).

But Mason could play just from the fact that he is back at practice. It was some kind of foot injury he had and his running is key to his game.

What I have seen with this SDSU team this year is the running game has not been good, forget about up to their standards, it just hasn't been good. And UND is a great D.

I am on the Under and I'm not sure if Mason plays it changes a whole lot. UND is still just better.

 

[carolinablue]

Auburn likes to keep it in state a lot for their FCS games, which I know people don't really like P4 programs playing FCS still, but if you are going to do it, give the money to a smaller in-state school is good.

The "sometimes struggles" I referred to:

2023 vs Samford (6-5), just 17-0 HT but won 45-13 - Auburn finished 6-7
2017 vs Mercer (finished 5-6), just 10-3 HT won 24-10 - Auburn went 10-4
2015 vs Jacksonville State (played for FCS national title this year), and Jax St led 10-6 HT! but Auburn won 27-20 as 47.5 pt favorites in OT
2014 vs Samford (7-5), just 17-7 HT and Auburn won 31-7 finishing 8-5 that year
2011 vs Samford (6-5), just 14-10 HT before Auburn won 35-16 and went 8-5 that year
2008 vs UT Martin (early in the Jason Simpson tenure, went 3-9), just 20-13 HT, 37-20 Final with Auburn being just 5-7 this year.

Sure Auburn has their share of blowouts vs FCS, not just SWAC, but occasionally some SoCon teams, but there is something about them that seems like they get involved in some of these closer than expected games fairly often.

AUBURN, Ala. — Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels will sit out against Mercer to preserve a year of eligibility.

Interim coach D.J. Durkin said Jackson Arnold and freshman Deuce Knight will play against the Bears, but he did not name a starter.

Daniels, a senior transfer from Stanford, has suited up three times for the Tigers (4-6, 1-6 Southeastern Conference) this season and can only play in one more game to redshirt and retain another year of eligibility. With Auburn finishing at home against No. 10 Alabama, Durkin opted to keep Daniels off the field until the rivalry known as the Iron Bowl.

 

[carolinablue]

Daniels actually played solid against Arkansas so will be interesting to see how the two qb rotation works vs Mercer

 

[s--k]

See the mistake? I got it ATS and ML. Will see if they honor as they took the game down after

 

[s--k]

All the lines are out, started around 6pm, paused and the rest of them started coming out after the MAC football games ended and just wrapped up.

Moves by memory, I didn't screen shot and didn't really look at totals.

open / now

Long Island -9.5 / 8.5
Merrimack -8.5 / 6.5
CCSU -11.5 / 10.5
Indiana State -14.5 / 11.5
Cornell -9.5 / 7.5
ETSU -14.5 / 13.5
Colgate -6.5 / 7.5
Penn -5.5 (could've been higher not sure) / 4.5
SC State -1.5 / 2.5
Towson (once they got it right) came back up at -10.5 went to 7.5 now 8.5
W&M -8.5 / 7.5
Stonehill -10.5 / 7.5
New Hampshire -7.5 / 6.5
Wofford -3.5 (I think) / 4.5
Tx Southern -2.5 (I think) / 3.5
Howard -7.5 / 4.5
Idaho -4.5 / 3.5
UTRGV -14.5 / 13.5

Edit now they are all out I think

 

[carolinablue]

Haven't had the chance to dig in this week as I have been dealing with dog stuff, so let me know if there are any I need to focus on out of the gate, thanks!

 

[s--k]

Sometimes I’m ok betting one side without much knowledge on the other, like with Mercer vs Auburn. But usually not and I don’t have anything to say on these.

 

[s--k]

Here is what I have:

Nich-SLU Und
SFA-NW St Und
Wagner
Mercyhurst
Stony Brook
Fordham
Lafayette
Columbia
SFU
Princeton
Colgate ML
Murray State
Towson (at the wrong odds)
Maine
Richmond
South Carolina State ML
UTM
YSU-UNI Und
SDSU-UND Und
Mercer
Texas Southern ML
Norfolk (again)
Bethune Cookman ML
Idaho State
UC Davis ML
East Texas A&M

I like South Carolina State a good deal. What I have seen the last 3 games from Delaware State I have not liked. South Carolina State passing O especially should do well. I'm probably looking to put more on SC State. And I like UC Davis a good bit, will look to put more on them also.

The SWAC MLs I took I feel pretty good about. Alabama A&M continues to be on the fade list even though they made me sweat it out last week vs FAMU. And that kind of the reason I am against FAMU this week, it isn't that I really liked them last week, but they were playing AAM so I bet them as they had been taking care of business as a favorite. For as good as AAM played against FAMU that is an indictment and the FAMU D is really bad so that leads me to Bethune Cookman even though admittedly they have lost some momentum the last 2 weeks.

Played some dogs in rivalry games that I wouldn't pick to win, but did pick for them to keep it close, such as Maine and Richmond.

I took Norfolk again. They keep making some critical mistakes and that is just what they do so it's possible it keeps happening, but Howard is no better than they are and Norfolk continues to tease me with their play enough to give them another shot. But that spread has taken a big hit.

Same with Saint Francis. For a winless team, they are competing down the stretch. They are losing, but they are close. LIU did not score an offensive TD vs them last week. LIU won 10-3. SFU led Mercyhurst 15-10 before MH scored the winning TD with :15 left 16-15. Wagner also got a pick-six on them, but SFU led this game 10-0 off the bat and Wagner got a walk-off FG to win 23-20. SFU only trailed Robert Morris by 3 mid 4th Q before RM won 24-14. That's the last 4 weeks (3-1 ATS only failed to cover the RM game, they have covered 4 of their last 6 with the other loss being Duquesne). I give that team credit, they showing up. Unless this is the week they decide to quit, Stonehill as that kind of favorite vs anyone is questionable.

So a few random thoughts

 

[carolinablue]

Considering a few dogs but haven’t submitted yet as my funds are tied up at FD so will have to wait for BM on Saturday. Let me know if any sound crazy!

Murray State
Lafayette
Tenn Martin
Robert Morris
Northern Iowa
Davidson

 

[s--k]

Considering a few dogs but haven’t submitted yet as my funds are tied up at FD so will have to wait for BM on Saturday. Let me know if any sound crazy!

Murray State
Lafayette
Tenn Martin
Robert Morris
Northern Iowa
Davidson

I did take Murray State last night at +14.5, it's now 11.5. The last time this happened was UNI when they were +17.5 and then the line closed at 12.5 and they lost by 17. I know somebody that took Murray on my recommendation and lost when I won which I felt bad about. Murray is 8-3 ATS on the closing number while 0-11 straight up. I don't know if such a pardox has ever existed! The avg spread of their covered games is 31.25 and some of the covers have been close to the spread, like they barely covered. So this being their smallest dog line of the entire season, if people were looking towards Murray just because of their great ATS record, given this current line it requires some further thought. Just looking now, I am kind of surprised their games do not go Over much. The Under 4-1 the last 5 and overall they are 6-5 to the Under. Indiana State has certainly showed well for themselves in a handful of games offensively putting up 400+ yards 3x this year including last week and vs SIU in MVFC play and they also did it vs Eastern Illinois who is probably in Murray's ballpark. Ind State scored 29, 27 and 38 in those specific 3 games and I'm assuming their D will give it up like usual. The D did have a relatively strong game vs South Dakota and also vs Eastern Illinois. I am expecting Murray to compete. They led UND 9-7 last week at HT. They were tied 14-14 with UNI 2 weeks ago. They only trailed SIU 7-17 at HT. That's their last 3 games. The SIU game was played in heavy rain hindering both teams. I have no specific knowledge on their players other than they have been on a different QB the last couple weeks. It's just hard for me to accept Indiana State winning by more than 2 TDs vs a team that has delivered so often ATS - but noted those were all at higher numbers, but then also vs better teams. So hard to know how you might feel about all of that. Statistically these two are just as bad ranked on O and D, very similar. Indiana State has Rochelle who is quite the playmaker. Murray doesn't have anybody of that caliber, but still view them fairly even so I took the pts.

Lafayette I know you said you were interested in. Me too. I did miss the 13.5 and got the 12.5 which felt good when the line was at 11.5 but it's now come up to 12.5 again. Lafayette, good O no D. Lehigh good O great D. LH has these games where they are very clearly superior to who they are playing and it shows in the box score, but not on the scoreboard. Take the Colgate game last week. 393-222 yard edge (6.6.-4.5) but 'only' won 27-7 and failed to cover by the hook (just 7pts all 2H in that one). They did blow out HC and GT but then again vs Fordham 'only' won 27-6 despite a 429-277 (6.1-4.3) yard edge. Looks like they sometimes have RZ issues, I count 9 TDs on their last 16 RZ trips. Lafayette does represent the best O Lehigh has played since Yale or Penn and Penn had some success on them, Yale really did not until later in the game. With DeNobile at QB and potentially the Patriot O POY at RB in Edwards, Leopards will present a challenge. DeNobile has played a lot of football. It's the home dog rivaly game for the conference title and the playoff auto-bid, pretty awesome! I'm betting on a competitive game and some of the Lehigh offensive inconsistency in scoring points to be evident.

Tennessee Martin I know you were also interested in, as was I and was able to get the 17.5. I am playing against where Tennessee Tech's season has gone. They played such bad teams to start the year (UTC was bad at the start of the year before they figured out who they were and played better mid season) and then when TTU started playing better teams the bloom was kind of off the rose and say what we might about weather or about penalties or this or that, but SEMO outgained them 401-299 (4.8-4.9) where the TTU D and ST was as responsible for them winning that one by 19 as their O (Visperas just 52% and only rushed for 3.6ypc). Then GW, which we were all frustrated with that game, but only beat GW by 6 with an ok 360-295 yard edge (7.5-3.6 is good ypp). Eastern Illinois..only beat them 21-9 and were outgained 326-308 (5.0-5.3), kind of an eyebrow raiser. That leads us into the Kentucky game where I thought, if Tennessee Tech was who we thought they were they could step up and make it interesting possibly, but I wished they were playing better ball going into that one. And I think that is where I am now with taking UTM. I wish TTU was playing better and maybe all the fireworks the first half of the year had as much to do with them hitting the nail on the head in fall camp, firing on all cylinders and just playing a bunch of bad teams and then things cooled off and they are still good quality team, but not like we thought. UTM was one of those bad teams to start the year, they lost a TON of players and added a TON of transfers and obviously it took some time to gel and it is not like they are great, but definitely playing their best ball the second half of the season coming into this one and they have Big South / OVC championship pedigree, this coaching staff, they have won I think a share of the conference title each of the last 5 years? So they expect to be in games to matter for the conference title. D has been good, with a really impressive performance at GW then maybe got lucky to beat Eastern Illinois. I guess I might be a little worried about the ceiling of the UTM O as they have not produced much since that GW game and TTU D probably matches up well with them. Basically, UTM has gotten better as the year went along and I don't think Tenn Tech has so the PR for Tenn Tech is still way high even though they are on an 0-4 ATS run. I would expect them to win, but not by more than 14-17 pts.

Robert Morris I don't know. Which Duquesne team shows up? Dukes can still win the NEC if Mercyhurst were to beat CCSU so beyond the rivalry aspect of the RM game, there is that. With but rare exception Robert Morris O is bad. They must be experiencing some QB injury thing too because I don't know who that Dudley guy is who played last week. Wolfe has played before, 2-of-10 passing for 24 yards from him last week, that is a woof! Tanner is the #1 QB and they have used Panteck in his place who seemed to be good. So this might matter. Did Duquesne find themselves again last week? Had previously been a fan of their team then the bottom so unexpectedly fell out at Wagner and Long Island. If they are the team from October then they should win comfortably. 526y with 344 rushing on CCSU last week - that is exactly what they were doing in October. The D is concerning from last week and the D had issues getting off the field vs LIU and Wagner part of the reason they lost those games. So can't be sure they got it all figured out. I'm not laying it or taking in this one.

Northern Iowa, I thought this line was high, but maybe not. North Dakota was about a 17 pt fav at UNI and UND was about a 7pt home fav over YSU, so that would mean YSU should be a little lower fav at UNI than UND was. Still does seem high though especially since we saw a flashback to the 2024 YSU D at home vs Indiana State over what was assumed to be the new and improved YSU D of 2025. I believe the new and improved YSU D is what we will get here as the UNI O has been easy for every other Valley team to limit with the exception of Murray's D. Take out Murray game and UNI is avg just 12.16ppg and 253ypg vs everyone else in MVFC. This has to be a game that YSU's D can be good in because everyone else has. And on the other side, UNI D has been tough. Nobody elses Offense excpet for NDSU has scored more than 31 on them (UND's D contributed 7 towards their 35 via a fumble return). So I think it is fair to take out the worst D UNI has played and the best O UNI has played to put their season in context, which is, struggling O, doesn't score much, gritty D challenges opponents and limits scoring. This led me to the Under. I get why you'd look at the UNI +14.5, especially considing history of YSU horrors in the UNIdome. I just think a total of 60.5 is absolutely insane - UNI had played 10 straight Unders before last week, and last week at NDSU the total was only 47! Either somebody thinks this YSU D is really bad or that YSU's O is going to score a bunch. I look at the O that UNI normally fields, I just can't see them scoring a lot.

Davidson. You going to the game? Dayton has ruined a few Davidson Pioneer title shots. For some reason Dayton has their number. Dayton is 15-2 vs them! And a lot of times they were good Davidson teams and no-so-good Dayton teams that beat them. Don't know why. New staff at Davidson maybe changes that? I have bet Davidson a few times recently, didn't work out so good at Marist last week for me or them. Kind of came crashing down to earth after 3 straight dog covers, some competitive fight vs San Diego, the Morehead win and the PC upset win the week before. It's one thing for Davidson to lose bad vs St Thomas or Drake or any of the power teams in the league, but you certainly can't do that vs Marist. Intangibly, this game probably means a ton to them just because it is Dayton and they must fucking hate Dayton. And who is Dayton to be laying 20.5 on the road? Dayton was only -15.5 at Valpo (won 41-10), they were -25.5 at home vs Stetson (won 48-14)...so I guess we do have evidence that Flyers can win by 30 vs the worst teams. But I think I am considering this Davidson bet myself now. Were the strong performances vs San Diego and Morehead and PC (wihtout Hurst granted) all for not? I believed they were improved and playing better then Marist happened. Still seems like a lot of pts for an average Pioneer team to lay on the road.

 

[s--k]

SFA keeps climbing. It's the only side one could take. Fav line keeps going up from 35.5 to 38.5 I see out there but total stays the same at 50.5

 

[sleepy]

Shame the SFA line is 35.5. This is the highest FCS dog line NW State has faced. SLU was 'only' -33.5 at home vs them (won 49-0) and SFA is on the road and favored by more and PR would imply SFA and SLU are pretty close. This line is exactly what Massey has 35.5/50.5. Sagarin is lower, Reddit and S&P are actually higher. Think Under could be the best route? Fear would be that SFA just has a 28 1Q or 42 point 1H on them...that probably doesn't happen because SFA hasn't scored more than 29 1H pts on anyone except for Sul Ross and oddly enough, NW State has only allowed 29 max 1H vs FCS all year.

Possiblity that NW State can get shutout in this game depending how the final minutes of the 4Q go. If Nicholls didn't have a 10y punt from their own EZ and didn't muff a punt last week it is very possible that NW State only finishes with 7 pts instead of 21 pts vs them. NW State has been held to 3 pts or fewer 3 of 7 vs SLC (one shutout) and SFA is the best D in the SLC and quietly one of the best Ds in the country. SFA quite possibly are a better team defensively than offensively. Accordingly SFA is 7-2 to the Under vs FCS, 8-2 to the Under overall (avg total 52.5) and NW St avg 9.7ppg in SLC play - which is boosted by the Nicholls game last week thanks to short fields. NW State is only 5-4 vs FCS to the Under because their D can give up 40-50 (SLU 49 - McNeese 50 - Lamar 41 - ET AM 40 - UIW 38). This also feels like a 2H that has very little scoring by either team and the clock just runs and runs. SFA will have the lead to empty the bench as they look towards their playoff game next week assuming they don't get a first round bye, which is doubtful they would. Vidlak has been out with injury and Rutherford is a good backup and has done what they need him to. Vidlak did return for a couple passes briefly last week.

Nobody wants to take NW St thus the 35.5 pt line. Think I would have to lay the 35.5 if I had to, but would rather take my chances on the Under.

Watching this game and line should have been at least 50

NW State probably wont score

 

[s--k]

NW State not scoring was part of the calculus and they just screwed up one of their only chances to score now.

Both these games not going as expected for Unders. SFA this was the fear and within the realm of possibilities. The Nicholls-SLU scoring is confusing to me. I hate the announcers on the River Bell game. Got so bored I just called my friend out of state to catch up. It's like "why are you calling isn't football on?"!

 

[sleepy]

No sense of urgency when they had the ball at midfield but some how get lucky with some trick plays. Why not kick the FG and build some momentum for a second half come back? Poorly coached team. Should have just forfeited since they're not even trying.

 

[s--k]

This game going to have 52 pts in the 1H and then like 10 in the 2H. Nicholls' 21 1H pts is as many or more than they had in 8 entire games this year. Disgusting

 

[carolinablue]

Finally had some time to look things over a bit more and here is my updated list I will be digging into, as I missed a few dog lines already but still see a couple potential plays from the batch noted below. Still like some of the ones I noted above, so won't duplicate those here as these are all in addition to those. Nothing locked yet as I am gonna wait and see how BM looks as sometimes their alt lines offer solid value at key numbers. Appreciate any input you might have, thanks!


UTRGV
Butler
VMI (crazy I know)
Weber (see above)
Robert Morris
Idaho (I think you are on the other side already)

A few more I have jotted down that will be fully dependent on more favorable lines than FD include:
Bryant
McNeese
Davidson
Nova
Marist
Lafayette
Murray State
SC State
SEMO
UTM
UNI
N Dakota St

 

[s--k]

that is something, did it happen about late September, the favorite lines all started being inflated and I found myself considering and taking more dog lines, maybe baited in some cases I can recall, but just on principle I felt compelled to take the points in some games because of the lines they released. I say that with respect to you saying VMI or Weber and the crazy part, sometimes it can be situation that is a appealing for some reason, but the number is the biggest thing and the value of a huge spread when maybe it shouldn't be, it's not always crazy.

Just real quick, yes I am on Idaho State. I think the tables have turned and Idaho State is in a position they have not be in for a very long time. ISU's last win came spring of 2021, but specifically the Eck years of 2022, 2023 and 2024 the Vandals won by a combined score of 141-45. And those were against some bad ISU teams and those were by some good Idaho teams. ISU is no longer bad, don't need to call them good to make my point, but they are no longer bad. Plenty of teams fall in between. But also, Idaho is not longer good. Idaho State's offensive strength (pass) goes squarely up against Idaho's defensive weakness (pass D), but not only that, I think that ISU has grown at the line of scrimmage to hold their own and much to the dismay of Vandal fans, Idaho continues to run a defensive scheme that does not get pressure on opposing QBs which leads to their weak secondary continually being exploited (15 sacks this year vs 32 last year). This is a very big moment for Cody Hawkins and Idaho State and it's never been more attainable in recent years then right now. Idaho State put up a lot of yards on Montana State, not garbage time. Idaho State very nearly beat Montana. Those are reasons I am on Idaho State.

 

[carolinablue]

Actually leaning more towards over in the rivalry game as I am thinking 31-28 or 34-31 as both teams should be able to score pretty consistently. Problem is I am so limited on totals it isn’t worth the trouble unfortunately.

 

[s--k]

Yeah, well that is the one thing I did not mention, that Idaho State's D is still a liability. I should consider that Over as well. Think that Idaho offensively though, they are pretty up and down. Maybe they find a way to be mostly up vs ISU? I don't know. For me, I am more comfortable putting my trust in ISU. I also forgot to mention, not only did ISU move it successfully on MSU and led in the 4Q vs Griz, but they beat UC Davis. So on that point, ISU is fairly inconsistent too as they really did not compete at home vs NAU. At this point in the year, I am reminded weekly very very few teams are actually consistent and what you expect to get out of them often is not what you get.

 

[s--k]

A lot of action in on South Carolina State. Which I think makes sense.

Harvard drops below 7. I am interested in them ML if it drops lower on gameday

W&M falls below 7

UNH has come back up, was 8.5 earlier, back to 7.5 now after being down at 6.5

Tenn Tech slowly coming back up

people have been betting Wofford, think that one opened 3.5, 5.5 now

UIW down a couple points

I think the Tarleton ML was -1800 earlier in the week? -1100 now. That line I believe went from 20.5 to 18.5. I have not been impressed with Austin Peay's play lately. I would want to lay it with Tarleton but would also want a more manageable line

 

[carolinablue]

May play UTM alt if I can get 18.5 but would definitely vote at 21

 

[carolinablue]

I stick to MLs <200 in multiples of 3 usually so I still clear profit at 2-1

 

[carolinablue]

I keep coming back to the following…

SEMO
UTRGV
Lafayette
UTM
RMU

Hope to be available when BM opens as I will have the FD lines on another screen hoping to take advantage of any variances, not just on these games but across the board

 

[s--k]

What are your thoughts on Lindenwood - SEMO?

 

[carolinablue]

What are your thoughts on Lindenwood - SEMO?

Interesting that SEMO has moved from slight fav to dog as I consider this one pretty even but have to give the edge to the home team in this rivalry game mainly because I believe in SEMO’s passing game vs the Lindenwood pass D, coupled with the fact that SEMo is solid in red zone and turnover margin, which is crucial in close games. I watched a few of their games this year and they have been solid not spectacular but if a few breaks would have gone their way, they could be 6-5 vs 4-7.

Basically comes down to home team, better offense, better red zone, better ball protection at home on senior day in a rivalry game.

With all that said, I haven’t played it yet, because I’m curious about what is causing the line move, as I’ve been burned a ton this year due to lack of injury info.

 

[carolinablue]

Took Nova -15.5 121 and Lafayette +12.5 120 both at BM

 

[carolinablue]

Lafayette dropped to 10.5 then Lehigh got slammed up to 140, now line at 12 112

 

[s--k]

Harvard back up to 8.5 at FD, sits -7 at BM

 

[carolinablue]

Took Yale +8.5 120 at FD

 

[carolinablue]

Have two screens watching BM vs FD movement

 

[carolinablue]

Thinking about UTM 18.5 129…thoughts?

 

[s--k]

Thinking about UTM 18.5 129…thoughts?

I am on them, I am a little hesitant with their offense - think it has to be a lower scoring game as their O might be capped in the low 20s. The way Tenn Tech's O has been playing that could happen to keep their scoring down.

 

[carolinablue]

Took SEMO +1.5 113 FD

 

[carolinablue]

SEMO now -1.5 at BM