TNF: Saints
People will likely want to bet on Dallas for two reasons: they play well at home and they’ve been playing well lately. However, the Cowboys haven’t really been tested in Dallas. They beat the Giants and Redskins by a score or less. They beat up on disappointing Jacksonville. Most lately, they lost to Tennessee. They are on a three-game winning streak, but those wins came against losing teams in Philadelphia and Atlanta and Washington with its backup quarterback. Now they’ll have to face not only a winning team, but arguably the best and hottest team. The Saints have covered nine games in a row, including five by double digits. They walloped fellow NFC contenders Minnesota and L.A. Rams.
Dallas relies above on all Ezekiel Elliot. He’s had 68 carries and 18 receptions in his last three games. During Dallas’ win streak, the best run defense that he had to face was Washington’s middling one. The Saints, though, rank second in opposing YPC, having limited the likes of Todd Gurley to fewer than 100 yards. Dallas ranks 19th in opposing passer rating, so expect Drew Brees to improve his 29-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
SNF: Chargers
Bettors may want to emphasize the injury of running back Melvin Gordon. But he’s relatively replaceable. L.A.’s o-line ranks seventh in run blocking and Austin Ekeler is one of the better backups. Instead, the return of Joey Bosa from injury is more important. He had two sacks last Sunday against Arizona and will give the Steelers a lot to account for. Earlier in the season, the Chargers had struggled against prolific passing attacks like that of the Rams because they struggled to pressure the quarterback. Even the best secondary is helpless if the opposing quarterback has all day to throw. With Bosa back, the Chargers’ deep secondary will flex its talent
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is mediocre in terms of opposing passer rating. Philip Rivers, though, is having an elite season, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and producing a 26-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio. Above all, he’s establishing chemistry with Keenan Allen, who has three touchdowns in his past three games. The Steelers’ pass attack will receive a test that it hasn’t in a while.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS on the road. Let’s make it 5-1 after Sunday.
SAINTS: Saints will overwhelm Dallas’ mediocre pass D. Their own pass D has improved in terms of opp. QBR. NO also ranks second in opp. YPC and will limit Zeke. NO is 5-0 ATS on the road and 9-0 ATS L9.
RAVENS: Falcons’ offense is still underachieving under Sark. It’s failed to exceed 20 points in three straight. Ravens secondary is stacked with depth and ranks second in opp. QBR. Atlanta won’t score enough.
BRONCOS: Bengals are conceding 30+ points in four of their past five games. They were allowing 212 YPG before they focused on Chubb last week, only to get torched through the air. Denver will run over them.
LIONS: Rams’ 27th-ranked pass defense matches up poorly with pass-first Lions. Lions will be able to keep up by slinging it. Plus, they have consistently surprised against strong opponents at home.
PACKERS: Cardinals are overmatched against desperate Packers. As a Jags fan, I find it funny that an incompetent ex-quarterback (Leftwich) is Arizona’s OC. They’ve scored less than 20 in five of last six.
BILLS: I expect Buffalo to be underrated often after its start to the season. Its defense will shine especially as Josh Allen continues to develop and avoids turning it over. Bills rank fourth in opp. QBR.
GIANTS: Let-down spot for Bears after big division wins. Trubisky may miss this one. Giants were dominating Philly before Saquon went missing. NYG can score enough if it just keeps giving the ball to Saquon.
BUCCANEERS: Can’t trust Panthers on the road, where they’re 1-4 ATS. They yield an opposing QBR of 117 on the road! Famous Jameis boasts a number of high-quality wide receivers with which to take advantage.
JAGUARS: Tricky spot for a very young Colts team that may be looking ahead to showdown with Texans. I like Kessler more than Bortles since he’s naturally more of a game manager, accurate, and ball-secure.
TEXANS: Browns will get love after demolishing Cincy away. But Houston is an altogether different beast. It ranks fifth in opp. YPC and boasts a dominant pass rush, which the Browns have struggled against.
TITANS: Titans should bounce back at home where they’re 6-1 L7 ATS. They still boast one of the top scoring defenses. Jets will lack the weapons to score enough and are even prone to giving the ball away.
CHIEFS: Andy Reid is notoriously successful after a bye week. Raiders’ D is abysmal, ranking 30th in opp. QBR. Chiefs’ batch of weapons will be fresh and will take advantage. KC is 6-0-1 L7 ATS away.
VIKINGS: I think the Patriots are favored so heavily purely because they’re the Patriots. The problem is, they haven’t looked like the Pats of old lately. Minny’s D rediscovered itself and will limit Brady.
49ERS: This is a classic let-down spot for Seattle which is coming off a big, dramatic, comeback win on the road against fellow playoff contender Carolina. The 49ers are still playing competitively.
CHARGERS: No Gordon? No problem. Austin Ekeler is one of the league’s better backups. Besides, Rivers is playing on another level. The key is the return of Joey Bosa, who finally gives L.A. a pass rush.
REDSKINS: Philly should not be laying this many points to anyone. They could've easily lost to the Giants if they hadn’t inexplicably stopped giving Saquon the ball. Eagles’ tackling has looked awful lately.
People will likely want to bet on Dallas for two reasons: they play well at home and they’ve been playing well lately. However, the Cowboys haven’t really been tested in Dallas. They beat the Giants and Redskins by a score or less. They beat up on disappointing Jacksonville. Most lately, they lost to Tennessee. They are on a three-game winning streak, but those wins came against losing teams in Philadelphia and Atlanta and Washington with its backup quarterback. Now they’ll have to face not only a winning team, but arguably the best and hottest team. The Saints have covered nine games in a row, including five by double digits. They walloped fellow NFC contenders Minnesota and L.A. Rams.
Dallas relies above on all Ezekiel Elliot. He’s had 68 carries and 18 receptions in his last three games. During Dallas’ win streak, the best run defense that he had to face was Washington’s middling one. The Saints, though, rank second in opposing YPC, having limited the likes of Todd Gurley to fewer than 100 yards. Dallas ranks 19th in opposing passer rating, so expect Drew Brees to improve his 29-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
SNF: Chargers
Bettors may want to emphasize the injury of running back Melvin Gordon. But he’s relatively replaceable. L.A.’s o-line ranks seventh in run blocking and Austin Ekeler is one of the better backups. Instead, the return of Joey Bosa from injury is more important. He had two sacks last Sunday against Arizona and will give the Steelers a lot to account for. Earlier in the season, the Chargers had struggled against prolific passing attacks like that of the Rams because they struggled to pressure the quarterback. Even the best secondary is helpless if the opposing quarterback has all day to throw. With Bosa back, the Chargers’ deep secondary will flex its talent
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is mediocre in terms of opposing passer rating. Philip Rivers, though, is having an elite season, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and producing a 26-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio. Above all, he’s establishing chemistry with Keenan Allen, who has three touchdowns in his past three games. The Steelers’ pass attack will receive a test that it hasn’t in a while.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS on the road. Let’s make it 5-1 after Sunday.
SAINTS: Saints will overwhelm Dallas’ mediocre pass D. Their own pass D has improved in terms of opp. QBR. NO also ranks second in opp. YPC and will limit Zeke. NO is 5-0 ATS on the road and 9-0 ATS L9.
RAVENS: Falcons’ offense is still underachieving under Sark. It’s failed to exceed 20 points in three straight. Ravens secondary is stacked with depth and ranks second in opp. QBR. Atlanta won’t score enough.
BRONCOS: Bengals are conceding 30+ points in four of their past five games. They were allowing 212 YPG before they focused on Chubb last week, only to get torched through the air. Denver will run over them.
LIONS: Rams’ 27th-ranked pass defense matches up poorly with pass-first Lions. Lions will be able to keep up by slinging it. Plus, they have consistently surprised against strong opponents at home.
PACKERS: Cardinals are overmatched against desperate Packers. As a Jags fan, I find it funny that an incompetent ex-quarterback (Leftwich) is Arizona’s OC. They’ve scored less than 20 in five of last six.
BILLS: I expect Buffalo to be underrated often after its start to the season. Its defense will shine especially as Josh Allen continues to develop and avoids turning it over. Bills rank fourth in opp. QBR.
GIANTS: Let-down spot for Bears after big division wins. Trubisky may miss this one. Giants were dominating Philly before Saquon went missing. NYG can score enough if it just keeps giving the ball to Saquon.
BUCCANEERS: Can’t trust Panthers on the road, where they’re 1-4 ATS. They yield an opposing QBR of 117 on the road! Famous Jameis boasts a number of high-quality wide receivers with which to take advantage.
JAGUARS: Tricky spot for a very young Colts team that may be looking ahead to showdown with Texans. I like Kessler more than Bortles since he’s naturally more of a game manager, accurate, and ball-secure.
TEXANS: Browns will get love after demolishing Cincy away. But Houston is an altogether different beast. It ranks fifth in opp. YPC and boasts a dominant pass rush, which the Browns have struggled against.
TITANS: Titans should bounce back at home where they’re 6-1 L7 ATS. They still boast one of the top scoring defenses. Jets will lack the weapons to score enough and are even prone to giving the ball away.
CHIEFS: Andy Reid is notoriously successful after a bye week. Raiders’ D is abysmal, ranking 30th in opp. QBR. Chiefs’ batch of weapons will be fresh and will take advantage. KC is 6-0-1 L7 ATS away.
VIKINGS: I think the Patriots are favored so heavily purely because they’re the Patriots. The problem is, they haven’t looked like the Pats of old lately. Minny’s D rediscovered itself and will limit Brady.
49ERS: This is a classic let-down spot for Seattle which is coming off a big, dramatic, comeback win on the road against fellow playoff contender Carolina. The 49ers are still playing competitively.
CHARGERS: No Gordon? No problem. Austin Ekeler is one of the league’s better backups. Besides, Rivers is playing on another level. The key is the return of Joey Bosa, who finally gives L.A. a pass rush.
REDSKINS: Philly should not be laying this many points to anyone. They could've easily lost to the Giants if they hadn’t inexplicably stopped giving Saquon the ball. Eagles’ tackling has looked awful lately.
