Odds
Week 13 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
So what is with Detroit's struggle on Thanksgiving Day. Why should one day give a particular team so much trouble?
Eh...
Last year they had OL injuries.
Goff with pressure is totally different.
The secondary struggled early.
They couldn't establish their running game. When they did, it was a bit too late.
Cornerback injuries definitely need to be monitored. Also, what’s Decker‘s deal?
I'll peak this afternoon.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
They sucked for 30 years, think it a tad different now! That said I believe home teams on holidays are at a big disadvantage as they have to deal with family shit and distractions, think the road teams actually have an edge on days like thanksgiving and Xmas.
That all said I think I’ll def be looking at Caleb Willams props if not the bears and points. Def think he will be able to pass on lions and he has looked much better since the oc change, he still holds ball way to long trying for the spectacular play instead of just getting rid of ball but that shouldn’t hurt his passing yardage as much his teams chances.
He can afford to hold on to the ball more with Aidan hurt
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I mean to an extent. Did you see that play in overtime last week? He had to have had 10 seconds back there and still took the sack. It was his MO in college and he really needs a coach to coach some this out of him. At times he hits his back foot on drop and lets it rip, others on the move he can put the ball in windows that not even there, but the kid is addicted to the big play like a drug and just won’t take what the d giving him when often times that all ya need. Save the Superman shit for the 2-3 times a game it needed! If bears would ever hire some competent coaches maybe they can teach him this? But bears hiring competent coaches is like @Brewers888 showing optimism, it really don’t happen! Lol
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
bro. good one. real talk
let me ask u if you remember two games:
Dolohins -9.5 at Jets last year (week 12)
Dolphins +17 at Patriots in 2017 (week 17)
those are the only two games they've won in the last seven years when it was 50° or colder
2-18 SU and 5-15 ATS L20 in that spot. the average temperature was 37° the average spread to beat was +5
average score 33-19
total went 12-7-1 to the over against an average total of 44
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
mcdaniel went 1-6 in those (3-4 ats against an avg line of +3) He covered the Jets SU win and +7 and +13.5 both at Bills. average score 31-22. he wears hoodies in 80 degrees its gonna be 28
I'm not touting any plays all I'm sayin is that they don't do well in cold historically
I'm not touting any plays all I'm sayin is that they don't do well in cold historically
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t remember half the games from last well my dude!
think this actually helps me capping nfl, far to many ppl make way to much out of what happened the week before in the nfl when shit like this or the Steelers stuff vs Browns last thru Is usually more important. What I’m sure of Tua had nothing to do with the ‘17 game, I have no clue If he played at jets last year, I’m assuming yes think he was healthy all last year so that must be only game he has won below 40!! I know it getting chilly here so I’m guessing it gonna be like way below 40 in Green Bay at night on Thu! You just can’t bet him in that imo, as much as I’d be all over fish if it was a nice balmy 50 degree night but since that not the case I think it has to be packers or nothing: maybe Tua proves ppl wrong but Im not bout to start wishing or hoping for shit when I bet! I gotta go with what we know and thus far he hasn’t proven to perform in these conditions. Doesn’t mean I’m automatically on pack cause they have some things that worry me but just don’t think you can bet Tua in freezing temps till he proves otherwise.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Id bet it prob be more like a “feels like” 10-15 degrees. Same here I’m not screaming packers but it has to be them or nothing imo.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
they're professionals
like when you said you only trust a handful of teams to score a touchdown in the red zone
some teams may be that way but not the true pros
like when you said you only trust a handful of teams to score a touchdown in the red zone
some teams may be that way but not the true pros
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That’s fair. Let me say I have no doubt lions will be focused. But Dallas? Not so much. Of course there no world where I can bet a giants team who quit. They should do everyone a huge favor and flex Jerry out of turkey day!! Could you imagine that?? Too bad Jerry kinda runs the league cause that would be hilarious. I’ll be watching “a Christmas story” or “elf” or some shit when Dallas plays giants, there no chance I would allow any tv im around to give that game ratings! lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Far as the point above, the very young packers kinda worry me a bit in that regard. I could see family distractions effecting them. I’ve never fully trusted Love since college, great talent but he has maturity issues imo. All the WRs young, family pressures could affect that team imo. But not as much the cold effects the fish and Tua!
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
did you hear they can't flex Cowboys Bengals out of Monday night because they already have all the simpsons animations drawn
2daBank
Voice of Reason
did you hear they can't flex Cowboys Bengals out of Monday night because they already have all the simpsons animations drawn
lol, na didn’t hear that, I just saw the commercial for that and didn’t know what the fuck I was even looking at till I finally got it, I think. I didn’t realize they could now change the Monday night game, far as I knew the flex only was for the Sunday nighter.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
just bet the Cowboys instead!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
just bet the Cowboys instead!
Im so bad with giants games. Usually the only times I’m right is when they play Dallas and Dak plays, Dak beating giants about easy as bets get. I did actually like parsons post game comments for a change after beating Washington, you think giants continue with that same lack of effort or was it a one off like to show management up? Are giants staying with devito instead of lock cause they don’t want him to hit any incentives? If so I guess it has to be Dallas or nothing but nothing is appealing, there outta be ncaa fb or hoops on instead I hope!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So now nfl has infiltrated college Black Friday? What a bunch of fucking turds, I swear if I didn’t love football I’d so stop watching nfl altogether!!
Anyways kc laying 13 to div rival shitbag raiders. Is that dumpster fire loser Ridder starting this game? God damn, if so I dunno if I can do it but how you lay 7 with kc let alone 13?
Anyways kc laying 13 to div rival shitbag raiders. Is that dumpster fire loser Ridder starting this game? God damn, if so I dunno if I can do it but how you lay 7 with kc let alone 13?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Can’t believe im saying this but looks like I’ll be backing Will Levis 2 weeks straight. For whatever reason it’s kinda been proven that kingsbury offenses get figured out as the year goes on and there film. He did a good job reinventing himself a bit but this still seems to be a issue and not only that both commanders running backs are out or dinged up, titans +5.5 the best bet I see on this card so far.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
@VirginiaCavs is Lawrence coming back this year? I don’t even know what wrong w him, this week? I’d love to be on jags cause I think their front can cause problems for a Houston oline that not protecting well at all. But I can’t back Mac n cheese
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Seattle falls in same category. I doubt the bye made jets grow a heart, Seattle coach is proving he has done legit defensive chops imo. I think the numbers all out of whack cause they had so many injuries while implementing a new system but what they did to zona last week was incredibly impressive, I can’t see jets scoring more than 17, that actually feels high!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Steelers as dogs, ok. Burrow ain’t gonna just take that d apart and bungals have no d. I can wash away that stink of playing Browns and winning and get behind Steelers here I believe. Think the fancy offense is blinding the facts here, bungals d sucks, bungals coach sucks, bungals not a playoff team and at some point I would bet those WRs start feeling disgruntled also. Don’t let burrow pretty highlights blind ya, Steelers a way better TEAM! And unlike the awful spot last thu now they come in on extra rest in a game they need. This a no brainer for me, don’t even need the points, in fact I might lay 3 for some plus money cause im a greedy asshole!
Trevor should take the majority of first-team reps today and is trending toward playing on Sunday
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
parlayed ml with memphis last night and feel good about it. sagarin's line is right there with the book. I saw ESPN ticker saying Jets have 53% chance to win according to that model. So there are some comparisons that exist. It doesn't feel trappy to me.
*just disclaimer i don't give a flying f*ck about Espn and I think their content is a strictly poisonous entertainment narrative.. and sagarin he's an OG so respect but I'm not sure how sharp his system is, just saying those comparisons exist out there to the -130 or -2 the book has
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno bout trappy, just feel like there can’t be many ppl buying jets right now and getting Seattle less than a fg feels kinda gravy to me. Maybe folks don’t realize how good that Seattle d potentially is but I watched them last week and while I don’t like to make much out of a week in the nfl this HC was known for his defensive chops, Carroll and gm been drafting talent, they just had so many injuries and implementing a new system think now healthy that it starting to sink in and it looks really freaking good to me. I just can’t imagine jets moving the ball real well here. If jets d shows up it could be a ugly battle but I don’t trust the effort we get from jets as much I do Seattle so for better or worse and on this card I really don’t like much they are for sure a play for me.
NFL finding every loophole in the broadcasting rules.
Hence the Friday game to start season.
Add in the second black Friday in a row.
3 on a Wednesday December 25th as well!
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Ravens have all division games to worry about and they throw them on December 25th vs Chiefs on 3 days rest. It's gonna be a shitty spot, but it is going to give them 10 full days of rest before season finale hosting the Bengals. Bengals will be on a normal week.
The Chiefs game Friday is giving them 2 extra days of rest to host the Chargers next week on SNF. Chargers will be on regular rest.
So Bengals and Chargers are also getting screwed in a way.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
I got one for you. Chargers. How do they play monday night (short week), have thanksgiving, fly three time zones, and still adequately prepare for a non-conference opponent they've only played twice in the L8 years.
Meanwhile Falcons have had two weeks to do all that shit. That sounds like a bitch to me.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
last 5 seasons cards on turf have gone 11-11 ats but 18-4 to the under. not saying to bet the under, they did score a shitload in buffalo, but that's how it's been for them and why I think we're seeing that 45
even with that 28 they scored in buffalo they're still 0-6 L6 14 ppg on turf (3-3 ats) and that's since calendar year 2023
*just saying this because on coach belichick podcast the statement "kyler murray is always tough on turf" and i had to fact check it out turns out not necessarily true
even with that 28 they scored in buffalo they're still 0-6 L6 14 ppg on turf (3-3 ats) and that's since calendar year 2023
*just saying this because on coach belichick podcast the statement "kyler murray is always tough on turf" and i had to fact check it out turns out not necessarily true
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I have zero confidence Rams win at New Orleans. Undisciplined on defense and zero oline protection is who they’ve become this season.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I feel ya but saints have their own issues, I feel like it pretty much a offense vs offense Game and I trust Stafford w his 2 WRs healthy more than I trust Carr, plus huge coaching mismatch. You won’t catch me playing them vs a good team but think they can handle saints. Like the fact barely embarrassed them last week, in the nfl that typically means the d will be playing w hair on fire to stop kumara.
This not a great card imo. I don’t like any the games today outside maybe packers and that only cause of Tua history in the cold, if that game wasn’t being played on a cold gb night I’d be all over fish cause I think they hitting their stride, just can’t go against facts and fact is Tua hasn’t shown us he can get it done in these conditions.
I doubt I bet rams but to actually get 5 plays in pick club they might have to be a play for me. Since it basically a given I’ll go 3-2 maybe they be one my losses, lol. I’m sure you follow rams closer than myself but just think this a spot they get a W and continue hanging around. Has as much to do with my distrust of saints off a good game as liking rams.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
rams 5-6 su and 4-7 ats 21 ppg
scoring 20 or fewer: 1-6 su and 0-7 ats
scoring 26 or more: 4-0 su and ats
teams vs saints 7-4 su and 6-5 ats
scoring 19 or fewer: 1-4 su and ats
scoring 23 or more: 6-0 su and 5-1 ats
how many u think rams score? team total is 26.5...
scoring 20 or fewer: 1-6 su and 0-7 ats
scoring 26 or more: 4-0 su and ats
teams vs saints 7-4 su and 6-5 ats
scoring 19 or fewer: 1-4 su and ats
scoring 23 or more: 6-0 su and 5-1 ats
how many u think rams score? team total is 26.5...
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Comes down to Rams oline play. It hasn’t been good.rams 5-6 su and 4-7 ats 21 ppg
scoring 20 or fewer: 1-6 su and 0-7 ats
scoring 26 or more: 4-0 su and ats
teams vs saints 7-4 su and 6-5 ats
scoring 19 or fewer: 1-4 su and ats
scoring 23 or more: 6-0 su and 5-1 ats
how many u think rams score? team total is 26.5...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
rams 5-6 su and 4-7 ats 21 ppg
scoring 20 or fewer: 1-6 su and 0-7 ats
scoring 26 or more: 4-0 su and ats
teams vs saints 7-4 su and 6-5 ats
scoring 19 or fewer: 1-4 su and ats
scoring 23 or more: 6-0 su and 5-1 ats
how many u think rams score? team total is 26.5...
Winston threw all over them they just for whatever reason couldn’t turn those yards into points. I trust Stafford, his weapons, and Mcvey, I think they score on a team who have their best corner away. I feel pretty confident in rans this week. I actually like all the nfc west besides niners who toast, falling apart and going to Buffalo in what looks like gonna be a blizzard !
It really is
Maybe worse tho is Seattle off 2 huge wins, flying further east before a rematch for another big division game
Everyone has FINALLY sworn off the jets. Finally a dog at home. And it makes me think this is the time to buy off a bye
Between the 2 games, I like the jets better. Chargers is a bad matchup for Atlanta. A soft team vs a physical tough team. Atlanta has been a huge fraud. And Seattle is a good matchup for jets. Can't really run at all and offense hasn't done much in the two wins.
I feel this.
