Week 13 Discussion Thread

Love this thread, I talk out my leans and it becomes clear what the strong plays are.

I do lean towards Dallas getting the home W Thursday, but it is very hard to play that team. Most likely a pass.

I've been waiting for Keenum to slip up and it hasn't happened. This looks like a good spot for it to happen, but can I let fading Minny burn me again?

Detroit/Balty no feel whatsoever.

New England has had some defensive deficiencies masked by playing some crap teams. Can Buffalo exploit them at home? I think 8.5 may be too many here, but at the same time it does seem like the Pats weakness is pass d, and the Bills aren't a pass heavy offense.

SF at Chicago is garbage, although after what I saw last week it would be hard to lay points with the Bears under any circumstance. But then again, this could be one of those instances where the public dog loses. Will SF be a public dog or will the public just say screw this game? I lean towards that. no play.

Brisset has looked decent at times, but I feel like he is going to have a devil of a time in Jacksonville...he is exactly the kind of raw qb who their defense will feast on. I actually think the Jags cover the 9.5 but may look to tease

Denver at Miami...no thanks

Does KC continue their free fall? They have single handedly kept me below .500 so far this year. I don't think I can trust them at all. Jets have been feisty at home but I'd rather get more than 3 if I am gonna take them. Likely no play.

Houston at Tennessee: man, really not much looking good on this slate. How can you lay a td with Tennessee with how ugly they have been playing?

Cleveland at Chargers should be fun because Rivers to Allen should be good for a ton of yards and Josh Gordon is back. Over 42.5 looks real good.

New Orleans coming off a loss comes back home. If you just look at the scores you would think Carolina played well last week but they really did not at all and Cam looked real bad. It hink this is a rebound game for NO. Possible play there

Rams in a big letdown spot after a huge home win. Blaine Gabbert is actually looking competent and Zona is out to avenge an embarrassing early season loss....not sure im gonna take Zona but I sure lean that way.

NYG at Oakland...pass, although I don't see NYG scoring much here.

Philly at Seattle...what a great game here. I am very biased here...its hard not to say take Seattle and the points at home, but the birds are just blowing everyone out. Seattle has the 12th man, but they don't have a defense. I will say this one thing, the eagles secondary is not great and a lot of their solid play is because the defense gets to the QB. They have not faced a guy who is mobile like Russ, and that could lead to receivers getting open. I am leaning heavy towards the over here

Pittsburgh at Cincy: lean the home dog in a rivalry game. Steelers are getting a rep for playing down to competition. Cincy could give them a game.

Leans:

Buffalo +8.5
Jags -9.5
Cleveland/LAC over 42.5
NO -4
Zona +7
Eagles/Seahawks over 47
Bungles +5.5 (will wait for 6)
 
guaranteeed said:
The ELIte era is over in New York

I wonder who he goes to next year, jags? Denver?
Click to expand...

Bengals ?

eli-tigger.jpg
 
The backlash by every retired vet qb to the giants is intense

Basically everyone calling McAdoo garbage

Median too, Florio saying they should release him out of respect
 
Maybe this qualifies as a hot take, but I don't really think eli is good anymore no matter where he goes. If I'm Jacksonville, I think im better with Bortles than Manning, and draft a guy to groom. If I'm Cincy, I legit think Dalton is better. I guess Denver would be the spot where I could see that makes sense for all parties
 
I also don't get the narrative in NY that this is disrespectful to Eli. They are going to have a very high pick, why not see what they have. Now, I don't get starting Geno one bit, but I would fully understand seeing what Davis Webb can do...even if he looks good enough to be a one year starter, you could trade your top 3 picks for a kings ransom, stock up on talent, survive one year with Webb and then address the QB. If he doesn't look that good, tehn you know you have to go get a guy.

But the Giants would still need help to get into the top 2, so if Rosen and Darnold are gone, what do they do? And then you have to consider the fact that they might go back to school. So enough with the "NY did Eli dirty" takes....they have every right to see what they have in Webb (I am giving them the benefit of the doubt that this Geno thing is a one game transition, if not one half)
 
Taking a stand with Dallas this week. Dakota is 3-0 vs Wash and I think he gets back to a more normal performance. Kirk/Crowder/Perrine a big step down from Phil/Allen/Gordon, Ryan/Julio/Freeman and Wentz/Jeffrey/Ajayi.
 
I don't even know what to think about Eli, but Geno Smith should never even have another NFL start.

That being said, Oakland will be huge favorites with nobody to throw the ball to. Carr will have to play out of his mind, which he is capable of.
 
It’s the Geno thing that’s disrespectful to Eli. There is no city in the US more familiar with the disappointment that is Geno Smith. It’s as much an insult to the fan base as to Eli.
 
I'll be on the Seahawks + pts & ML. Probably tt over and game over. Wilson is mobile enough to evade some blitzes and should be able to move the ball. Credit to how great the Eagles have been playing but I think the Hawks know they have to score to win. Philly otr this season allowed 17, 27, 24, 23, and 9 to the Boys. Darby back has definitely helped though they have played a who's who in bad offenses recently. I tend to think they lose this one and then pound on the Rams next week.
 
True, but you could make the same argument for betting on Miami, and Siemian did look decent when he took over for Lynch last week. Game is a pass for me
 
This is one of the tougher weeks for sure. I’m having hard time finding 5 sides for my picks contest.
 
Gandolf said:
It’s the Geno thing that’s disrespectful to Eli. There is no city in the US more familiar with the disappointment that is Geno Smith. It’s as much an insult to the fan base as to Eli.
Click to expand...

Its actually the smart thing to do. Starting Geno Smith will help the Giants lose the rest of their games and draft as high as second. I wish the Jets were smart enough to start Hackenberg which would have led to an 0-16 record.
 
D-Woww said:
I also don't get the narrative in NY that this is disrespectful to Eli. They are going to have a very high pick, why not see what they have. Now, I don't get starting Geno one bit, but I would fully understand seeing what Davis Webb can do...even if he looks good enough to be a one year starter, you could trade your top 3 picks for a kings ransom, stock up on talent, survive one year with Webb and then address the QB. If he doesn't look that good, tehn you know you have to go get a guy.

But the Giants would still need help to get into the top 2, so if Rosen and Darnold are gone, what do they do? And then you have to consider the fact that they might go back to school. So enough with the "NY did Eli dirty" takes....they have every right to see what they have in Webb (I am giving them the benefit of the doubt that this Geno thing is a one game transition, if not one half)
Click to expand...

In my opinion Darnold will be a mediocre at best nfl qb like many of the others from USC
 
guaranteeed said:
The backlash by every retired vet qb to the giants is intense

Basically everyone calling McAdoo garbage

Median too, Florio saying they should release him out of respect
Click to expand...
Nobody is talking about the cap hit the Giants would take if they release him. It's huge through next season so it's either trade him or hold on to him. Unless they are going to eat that, I think he's on the roster next season.
 
man oh man that Hawks line is climbing. +7-135 after a 3.5 opener. I'll be on them +pts hoping to get to 7-110 but prob not.

Eagles playing out of their minds but have faced zero adversity. Wilson doing everything he can to keep the team going, Baldwin should have a day I don't think Darby can cover him. Actually I lean under here something tells me this is a grinder. Not sure I can play that one though....
 
I do take a little bit of exception to the "eagles haven't played anyone" narrative.

They beat Carolina in Carolina
They beat Washington twice, and while they don't seem like a great team, they have played an insanely tough schedule
They beat SD in SD and it wasn't even a patented SD collapse (I know it is LA...I don't care, they will always be the SD chargers to me)
They beat the Giants, which don't get me wrong, they should, but lets remember the Giants were fully healthy at that point

The teams we can agree are "bad" who they beat: Dallas (without Lee or Smith), Chicago, Denver, Arizona, they did not just beat, they demolished. Denver is supposed to at least have good defense. Eagles scored 51. Bears have beaten Pittsburgh, won in Baltimore and beat the Panthers, all 3 of which are playoff teams, and kept most of their games close. Eagles didn't let them get a first down.

Don't get me wrong, I do see where you are coming from, this is by far the toughest game they will have had since week 2 when they played KC in KC when KC was red hot, I just don't agree with the "eagles haven't beaten anyone or faced any adversity" narrative.

the ONLY thing that I think could stop them from rolling is the hostile environment.
 
i didn't say they haven't beaten anyone, I said they haven't faced adversity.....and i should have specified for the last 4 games. They have been impressive every week no doubt.

I totally disagree that the hostile environment is the only thing that can stop them. A great qb capable of escaping a pass rush and moving the ball through the air would be my first factor. Second being the Hawks have way more to play for.
 
Seattle is going to score, which is not a given with the way this defense is playing. I think for the reasons you said, Wilson will make some shit happen. But I can't see Wentz failing to pick apart this defense that is a Seattle defense in name only. I have it 34-24 birds.

Frankly I don't give a f if they cover I just want the W so maybe they win 31-27 and were all happy! I do love the over.
 
D-Woww said:
I also don't get the narrative in NY that this is disrespectful to Eli. They are going to have a very high pick, why not see what they have. Now, I don't get starting Geno one bit, but I would fully understand seeing what Davis Webb can do...even if he looks good enough to be a one year starter, you could trade your top 3 picks for a kings ransom, stock up on talent, survive one year with Webb and then address the QB. If he doesn't look that good, tehn you know you have to go get a guy.

But the Giants would still need help to get into the top 2, so if Rosen and Darnold are gone, what do they do? And then you have to consider the fact that they might go back to school. So enough with the "NY did Eli dirty" takes....they have every right to see what they have in Webb (I am giving them the benefit of the doubt that this Geno thing is a one game transition, if not one half)
Click to expand...

Its only disrepectful because they went with Geno Smith and not Davis Webb. With Webb they can say they want to see what he has to offer for the future. In the case of Geno Smith everyone knows he sucks and starting him just gives the team a bigger chance to lose.
 
brewers888 said:
Its only disrepectful because they went with Geno Smith and not Davis Webb. With Webb they can say they want to see what he has to offer for the future. In the case of Geno Smith everyone knows he sucks and starting him just gives the team a bigger chance to lose.
Click to expand...
exactly
 
Everything I am seeing has me firing on the over in this game and hell maybe even just TT too. The question mark I'm waiting to see on is if Martin is in or out.
 
FB DiMarco tweaked his ankle at Bill's practice, Shady is now on the injury report with a knee injury.

For the Patriots RT Cannon is likely out and backup Waddle hasn't practiced. Cameron Fleming is the third option at right tackle and will likely get the start. Lawson might be able to take advantage. Hogan looks like a longshot to play, which is huge in this matchup.
 
some Bills thoughts

Said it all season the Bills will look like trash vs a team with a strong front 7 and a strong run game. I don't think the Patriots match the description.

The Pats defense has definitely settled down- the claims of NE having the worst pass d in the game were def an overreaction. I think they are suspect and it could burn them down the road, but let's be honest Tyrod won't be throwing for 300 against them. At the same time they allow tds, and haven't been forcing turnovers. For as bad as the Bills secondary has looked at times, they have also played some terrific games. Don't forget they have collectively been banged up all season but when Poyer, Gaines, and Hyde are all healthy they are physical and force fumbles/incompletions. Last week I said Tre White felt snubbed not being mentioned for defensive roy, and responded by sealing the victory with a pick. Saw Deion Sanders interview him and even he said he should have housed it (damn tt over), but the kid is special. Now I won't get crazy and say the Bills will pick Brady off 3x, but I do think they can force some drops and maybe get one off a deflection. Nobody can cover Gronk, but Milano is speedy enough to stay close to him on short passes. To me this game sets up as a public burial, Pats on a tease will be on everybody's card. It hinges on whether or not the Bills front can generate some pressure without a blitz.
 
To be clear I will be on the Bills+ pts. Take away the team names and you are laying over a td with a 3rd string rt vs 4-1 home team in a second consecutive divisional game. Better faves to look at if you ask me (Titans/Rams). Looking into Patriots tt under as a possible wager, looks like it could be the worst wager you can make this week, but aren't those the ones that win? Have an unposted teaser going with Boys/over already won and Bills+17, really think that in a tease is a nice wager.
 
I'm not buying the Jags as huge faves this week. Bortles still capable of throwing the game away, Marrone is a trash coach when it comes down to the wire in games, Fournette hasn't looked like the explosive runner everyone thought he would be lately.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'm not buying the Jags as huge faves this week. Bortles still capable of throwing the game away, Marrone is a trash coach when it comes down to the wire in games, Fournette hasn't looked like the explosive runner everyone thought he would be lately.
Click to expand...
Lenny put in his first full week of practice since the ankle injury. He should excel this week. Remember Yeldon and Ivory ran all over the Colts in the first matchup. Jags also in bounce back situation, this smells like 24-9 type game.
 
Lex, excellent points on the Pats. Add in the physical beating they took last week against the dolphins and 9 looks like a few too many points to lay. More of a concern to me with the pats is the 'illness' Andrews has had since the Denver/Mexico trip. Karras is not the answer at center. I will defend Fleming at RT if he has to go. He's not your typical 3rd string tackle. He's had tons of snaps for the pats over the years and has held up remarkably well. I'm more worried about the center position. Another huge concern is the pats lack of depth at the LB and DE positions. Van Noy and Reilly are likely out and if Trey Flowers can't go you'll likely see a shitload of nickle which makes them vulnerable to the run. Add in the mobile QB aspect and the pats could have their hands full this week.
But my real reason for popping in here. Why do I like the 49ers so much this week? I think Jimmy G is a VERY good QB. There is a real chance he lights it up this week. Please, someone talk me off the niners before I do something stupid like take them on the ML.
 
Lexington 125 said:
some Bills thoughts

Said it all season the Bills will look like trash vs a team with a strong front 7 and a strong run game. I don't think the Patriots match the description.

The Pats defense has definitely settled down- the claims of NE having the worst pass d in the game were def an overreaction. I think they are suspect and it could burn them down the road, but let's be honest Tyrod won't be throwing for 300 against them. At the same time they allow tds, and haven't been forcing turnovers. For as bad as the Bills secondary has looked at times, they have also played some terrific games. Don't forget they have collectively been banged up all season but when Poyer, Gaines, and Hyde are all healthy they are physical and force fumbles/incompletions. Last week I said Tre White felt snubbed not being mentioned for defensive roy, and responded by sealing the victory with a pick. Saw Deion Sanders interview him and even he said he should have housed it (damn tt over), but the kid is special. Now I won't get crazy and say the Bills will pick Brady off 3x, but I do think they can force some drops and maybe get one off a deflection. Nobody can cover Gronk, but Milano is speedy enough to stay close to him on short passes. To me this game sets up as a public burial, Pats on a tease will be on everybody's card. It hinges on whether or not the Bills front can generate some pressure without a blitz.
Click to expand...

The Bills have a very good secondary. The teams complete lack of a pass rush makes them look below average at times.
 
babyneedshoes said:
Lex, excellent points on the Pats. Add in the physical beating they took last week against the dolphins and 9 looks like a few too many points to lay. More of a concern to me with the pats is the 'illness' Andrews has had since the Denver/Mexico trip. Karras is not the answer at center. I will defend Fleming at RT if he has to go. He's not your typical 3rd string tackle. He's had tons of snaps for the pats over the years and has held up remarkably well. I'm more worried about the center position. Another huge concern is the pats lack of depth at the LB and DE positions. Van Noy and Reilly are likely out and if Trey Flowers can't go you'll likely see a shitload of nickle which makes them vulnerable to the run. Add in the mobile QB aspect and the pats could have their hands full this week.
But my real reason for popping in here. Why do I like the 49ers so much this week? I think Jimmy G is a VERY good QB. There is a real chance he lights it up this week. Please, someone talk me off the niners before I do something stupid like take them on the ML.
Click to expand...

I think he'll be good eventually, but Shanahan's offense is actually pretty complex. I think he could struggle a bit his first couple of games.
 
babyneedshoes said:
Lex, excellent points on the Pats. Add in the physical beating they took last week against the dolphins and 9 looks like a few too many points to lay. More of a concern to me with the pats is the 'illness' Andrews has had since the Denver/Mexico trip. Karras is not the answer at center. I will defend Fleming at RT if he has to go. He's not your typical 3rd string tackle. He's had tons of snaps for the pats over the years and has held up remarkably well. I'm more worried about the center position. Another huge concern is the pats lack of depth at the LB and DE positions. Van Noy and Reilly are likely out and if Trey Flowers can't go you'll likely see a shitload of nickle which makes them vulnerable to the run. Add in the mobile QB aspect and the pats could have their hands full this week.
But my real reason for popping in here. Why do I like the 49ers so much this week? I think Jimmy G is a VERY good QB. There is a real chance he lights it up this week. Please, someone talk me off the niners before I do something stupid like take them on the ML.
Click to expand...

I'll give it my best shot, Is jimmy g also playing linebacker? Take a look at what teams with capable rushing attacks have done to the niners (and the colts who's rushing attack far from capable most weeks). Niners have let every team that has a ground attack absolutely control their games. Bears ran into a philly front 7 buzz saw last week but I don't believe for a minute a fox team has quit and think they will once again get back to the business of controlling games on the ground as they have done at home against far better opponents than niners.

I like jimmy g and agree with everyone that niners arrow is pointing way up in the near future, I just don't think their a ton around him yet and today he will have to be perfect cause I believe bears will do what they do best and limit his opportunities by taking the air out of the ball..
 
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