WEEK 12

[bookieassassin]

one unit

Colorado +6
Utah P
NW -1
TTech -2'
Oregon St ML
Iowa St +7'
Hokies -2


smaller

Navy -2'
Virginia +4
Louisville -1
GTech -5'
SMiss / MSU over 46'
Miami -3 2H
BC +3' live
Rutgers +11 1H
Iowa -2'
Nebraska +7
JMU -7 2H



ML

0.50
Colorado
NW

0.25
Army
Iowa St

0.10
Virginia
UCLA


leans

Kentucky
Auburn
Iowa
Jax St
UCLA
SMU
Houston
Nebraska

 

[bookieassassin]

'added' one I've had circled for awhile ...left off initial list somehow

Beavs ML

>> played at +1/ P - will add more when it drops back down - should close Beavs -1/1' - I'm gonna just play the ML / eat the juice if necessary, for 5-10 units - pour a drink (Scotch in a Big Gulp cup ha) - and walk TF away.

Nightmarish spot for Washington - off a physical game with Utah (USC before) / pressure of remaining unbeaten, off several close games ... vs a team with the formula to beat them - RUN the damn ball, keep Penix off the field - create havoc on D / force and take advantage of mistakes. Note Beav D is down a bit from LY. Havoc rating (O/D ) - Wash #23/#118 ..... OSU 29/9.

$ Beavs are practically unbeatable at home - #1 by a large margin > winning 16/17 SU, and would be 17-0 ATS if not for a lazy late TD allowed vs sorry SDSU - at home their MOV is 19.7 pts - ats margin 10.3 pts/game! (since 2021). A N D - HC Smith is probably THE best at preparing his team off a SU win (avoiding a letdown) - about a 75% spot.

 

[B.A.R.]

'added' one I've had circled for awhile ...left off initial list somehow

Beavs ML

>> played at +1/ P - will add more when it drops back down - should close Beavs -1/1' - I'm gonna just play the ML / eat the juice if necessary, for 5-10 units - pour a drink (Scotch in a Big Gulp cup ha) - and walk TF away.

Nightmarish spot for Washington - off a physical game with Utah (USC before) / pressure of remaining unbeaten, off several close games ... vs a team with the formula to beat them - RUN the damn ball, keep Penix off the field - create havoc on D / force and take advantage of mistakes. Note D is down a bit from LY. Havoc rating (O/D ) - Wash #23/#118 ..... OSU 29/9.
$ Beavs are unbeatable at home - #1 by a large margin > winning 16/17 SU, and would be 17-0 ATS if not for a lazy late TD allowed vs sorry SDSU - at home their MOV is 19.7 pts - ats margin 10.3 pts/game! (since 2021). A N D - HC Smith is probably THE best at preparing his team off a SU win (avoiding a letdown) - about a 75% spot.

Man I love me some situational handicapping!

Good stuff BA!

 

[bookieassassin]

smaller

SMiss / Miss St OVER 46'

Will Rogers back probably? - either way D will not be a focus for either team here - usual way in these late season non-conference games.

 

[bookieassassin]

smaller

Iowa St +7' / ML

looks like a fantastic spot for Horns to get their ass beat don't it? - fell asleep on early number, thinking it might go up for a minute - so I'll play 0.50 +7' ./ 0.25 ML
>> ISU has won and covered 3/4 vs TX - MC 11-4 home dog

 

[Wolfeman]

NW currently +3…any idea why the swing?

 

[Timh]

Like your thoughts on Beavs. Beavs front 7 on defense have performed very well with limiting opposition to 3.3 ypc and providing 36 sacks. They are an opportunistic defense and Beavs are +10 T/O ratio compared to Wash -2. Coupled with good running game and their great success at home this looks like an excellent play.

 

[bookieassassin]

NW currently +3…any idea why the swing?

YES

A buncha idiots overreacting to the Boilers big W last week -ignoring NW's better W .......

>> Line tells us that NW QB is OUT - he ain't as far as I can tell - maybe folks are looking at past history > NW terrible home team / Boilers great road team / road team always wins and covers here....... (note: Brohm is gone). Any regression here should work for NW, not stinkin' Purdue.

NW is playing with a PURPOSE - huge this time of year. Plus interim HC Braun just got named as HC going forward. At 5-5, they're BE with a win here. Purdue is 3-7 with a winnable game on deck (Indy). So far, Boilers play hard about every other week. I'll probably add to it at 3, and or live/2H.

 

[bookieassassin]

Miami -3 2H - extra small

Buffalo averaging about 3 yds/play > MU about 6.7 / running well (key)

 

[bookieassassin]

Like your thoughts on Beavs. Beavs front 7 on defense have performed very well with limiting opposition to 3.3 ypc and providing 36 sacks. They are an opportunistic defense and Beavs are +10 T/O ratio compared to Wash -2. Coupled with good running game and their great success at home this looks like an excellent play.

looks like about 80-90% rain too - winds 8-10

 

[bookieassassin]

Col / Wazzu

Wazzu seemed to be a different team after their bye week (week 5) - losing 6 straight - missing cover by 78 points - only sign of life was at Oregon - only losing by 14. Looking back, maybe we all overrated them to begin with, as those home wins over Wisky and Oregon St (much weaker on rd) don't look that great now.

Buffs have continued to fight, and get better as the season wears on. Yes, they stink but play hard all 4Q - and will be laser focused here. Wazzu? - also needs a win here to be BE - BUT has Washington on deck - can they just flip the switch here, and revert back to early 2023 /2022 form? Why would they POOF!, suddenly care about EXTENDING the season? The season can be saved by a win over Washington .....

BUT - While sure Wazzu has a higher ceiling - these 2 are similar, and Wazzu shouldn't be able to exploit Colorado's weaknesses. They can't RUN, or rush the passer.

sacks allowed (%)
* Col #121 - W #90

sacks
* Col #74 - W #110

HAVOC (O/D)
* Col - #76 / #109 - W #89 / #110

field position (O/D)
* C #68/#67 - W - #57/#61

TURNOVERS
* C - #3 - W #113
>> Buffs have SEVEN TO all season - and have forced 18

yds/point margin - great / underrated stat
* C #43 - W #84


Kinda been sleeping on Col myself - faded them small on a few occasions - and LOST ha
>> lost to Zona by 3 - one of nation's hottest teams ... lost to Beavs by 7 ... lost at UCLA by 12 (a terrible matchup).. .won at ASU by 3 ....lost to USC by 7
* a nasty home loss to Tree by 3 - sandwiched in there - a weird, flat spot for the Buffs

Wazzu? - lost at Cal by 3 ... lost to Tree by 3 ...lost at ASU by 11 ...lost at Oreg by 14 ...lost to Zona by 35 ...lost at UCLA by 8



Common opponents

ZONA - TO / TD
* Col 339/421
* Wazzu 234-516

UCLA
* Col 242/487
*Wazzu 216/471

Ariz St
* Col 295/392
* Wazzu 403/509

Oreg St
* Col 238/418
* Wazzu 528/440 (before bye W4 / can't ignore it but different team them)


Spread is dropping to where it should be IMO - about 3/3'
> I would play it to 3, with some on the ML for sure....... :shake:

 

[Wolfeman]

Col / Wazzu

Wazzu seemed to be a different team after their bye week (week 5) - losing 6 straight - missing cover by 78 points - only sign of life was at Oregon - only losing by 14. Looking back, maybe we all overrated them to begin with, as those home wins over Wisky and Oregon St (much weaker on rd) don't look that great now.

Buffs have continued to fight, and get better as the season wears on. Yes, they stink but play hard all 4Q - and will be laser focused here. Wazzu? - also needs a win here to be BE - BUT has Washington on deck - can they just flip the switch here, and revert back to early 2023 /2022 form? Why would they POOF!, suddenly care about EXTENDING the season? The season can be saved by a win over Washington .....

BUT - While sure Wazzu has a higher ceiling - these 2 are similar, and Wazzu shouldn't be able to exploit Colorado's weaknesses. They can't RUN, or rush the passer.

sacks allowed (%)
* Col #121 - W #90

sacks
* Col #74 - W #110

HAVOC (O/D)
* Col - #76 / #109 - W #89 / #110

field position (O/D)
* C #68/#67 - W - #57/#61

TURNOVERS
* C - #3 - W #113
>> Buffs have SEVEN TO all season - and have forced 18

yds/point margin - great / underrated stat
* C #43 - W #84


Kinda been sleeping on Col myself - faded them small on a few occasions - and LOST ha
>> lost to Zona by 3 - one of nation's hottest teams ... lost to Beavs by 7 ... lost at UCLA by 12 (a terrible matchup).. .won at ASU by 3 ....lost to USC by 7
* a nasty home loss to Tree by 3 - sandwiched in there - a weird, flat spot for the Buffs

Wazzu? - lost at Cal by 3 ... lost to Tree by 3 ...lost at ASU by 11 ...lost at Oreg by 14 ...lost to Zona by 35 ...lost at UCLA by 8



Common opponents

ZONA - TO / TD
* Col 339/421
* Wazzu 234-516

UCLA
* Col 242/487
*Wazzu 216/471

Ariz St
* Col 295/392
* Wazzu 403/509

Oreg St
* Col 238/418
* Wazzu 528/440 (before bye W4 / can't ignore it but different team them)


Spread is dropping to where it should be IMO - about 3/3'
> I would play it to 3, with some on the ML for sure....... :shake:

Killer write up BA. SKO Buffs…

 

[bookieassassin]

BC the MUCH better 4Q team

small play @+ money

BC +3' live

 

[M.W.]

I have to say you/we got some bad breaks on that BC live play.

 

[bookieassassin]

bumping up

Iowa St +7' - 100% hunch, can't support or recommend really ha

added smaller

Rutgers +11 1H - Franklin has covered 10 of 34 games off a loss (better lately tho) - but he's the worst by far (great off a SU win) - they always start slow in this spot.
>> note they are a great 3Q team - I'll be on that one. 1H should be very low scoring too.

VT -2 - gonna post it now - will wait for a sensible juiced 2 or better. Thinking we see some regression here from crap road team NCST - QB Morris just poof! said I think I'll redshirt now - so team rallied around disgraced, but well liked former starter Armstrong, and won their 3rd straight game on the road at WF. Hokies are 5-5 and very tough at home - off a 600 yd TO game at BCollege.- won 48-22.

NOTE: that Oregon State line is dropping as expected - I would wait for a better deal on the ML. It's P at Circa and -115 / 120 offshore. I'm looking for even or + money.....

Probably will play Iowa if it drops further - UCLA at 7 in a 'talk me out of' type bet - drawn to NMSU 1H ? - but they're a much better 2H team - just figure they fight awhile - then say screw it (QB is hurt - big games ahead)

 

[Wolfeman]

Awesome write ups GL Partner….mahalo.

 

[bookieassassin]

added smaller

Iowa -2'

LIVE/2H?

either like 'em but don't like the # - or might start slow

JAX St- LT's last game > should play hard for awhile
$ SMU
NTX
AUBURN
AF?
Nebraska
Michigan
JMU
TCU?

 

[bookieassassin]

extra small

Nebraska +7

I have no idea why this has risen to 7 - should be an extremely ugly low scoring game
>> Matt Rhule has prepared his teams well as a dog - covering 36/55 games

Bumping up the Hokies

 

[bookieassassin]

small play

JMU -7 2H

 

[Wolfeman]

Beavers are alive came prepared….

 

[Wolfeman]

Pound Martinez….. cmon coach.

HA! Few minutes later TD Beavers… grind beaver!