WEEK 12

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Tulane -2'
Iowa St -2'
Virginia -3
NW. +18 smaller
CLT +3 smaller
EM +7



Leans/ waiting

Duke?
Liberty
Illinois
Kentucky?
UConn
Navy
KANSAS!!?
LSU
Wazzu
SJSU
Utah?
Baylor / 1H
Ole Miss
ULM TT under
Ga SO
Jake Haener
Hawaii
 
Tulane and Iowa St just gonna rely on their defenses to shut down SMU & TT? Kinda like both overs as well.....gotta think the home teams offenses have success vs these crappy defenses the Mustangs and Red Raiders trot out there...
 
Jake Haener :) love that kid.
I caught that Tulane -2.5 line and was happy to pay xtra Vig for Iowa St.-2.5.

Historically these late weeks, the lines are always tight and difficult for value imo. I plan to kick back and relax a bit on plays. I want to hold my pile of chips for now.

RIP UVA…sad news. Prayers.

BOL this week Mr. BA! Da best Brotha.
 
Wolfeman said:
Jake Haener :) love that kid.
I caught that Tulane -2.5 line and was happy to pay xtra Vig for Iowa St.-2.5.

Historically these late weeks, the lines are always tight and difficult for value imo. I plan to kick back and relax a bit on plays. I want to hold my pile of chips for now.

RIP UVA…sad news. Prayers.

BOL this week Mr. BA! Da best Brotha.
Click to expand...
SHARP! tremendo, too!
 
added a few

LSU -14'
Hogs +3
Liberty -9'

Iowa +3 smaller
Duke +7' smaller


Seldom if ever .... do I predict a team is gonna get annihilated - in fact I love to make fun of guys that (mostly) love to cap these blowouts. BUT LSU is 'building a team' - really fast too - they are in no position and mindset to take a week off here. BK can in no way allow a letdown here, in their last home game (LHG). A&M would normally be a huge lookahead - but they're only a TD or so better than UAB anyway. Best part? - UAB stunk in this spot when they were a much BETTER team - WITH their outstanding HC. They should get killed here.

Liberty on the surface seems shaky ..... BUT as you might have noticed - they need a challenge to get up. Hokies aren't really, but they are a NAME team that Freeze will want to beat up. Not much to suggest he can't. Huge game for Liberty - who gets zero respect.

BTW - ha
>> LSU didn't suffer a 'letdown' at Arkansas (really) - HOGS are tough. A HORRIBLE spot for a beaten and broken Ole Miss / Kiffin. Off a bye, they expected to beat Bama - NOW they travel to a desperate 5 win Arkansas - off a home loss - final home game, only Mizzou on deck. Hogs should win here.

Like both Iowa and Duke - but just solid value plays - no 'mental edge' IMO so smaller.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Tulane and Iowa St just gonna rely on their defenses to shut down SMU & TT? Kinda like both overs as well.....gotta think the home teams offenses have success vs these crappy defenses the Mustangs and Red Raiders trot out there...
Click to expand...

You bet - but as always, the SPOT is my primary focus....

Tulane/SMU - one of the most profitable home teams in CFB vs a bad road team - especially late in the season. Off a home loss -LHG - a weekday game - MUST WIN with Cinn on deck. Ponies have won 7 straight in the series (5-2 ATS). IMO Tulane is the better team this year - playing with a purpose. SMU should stay close tho. Last 14 games on the (November road) SMU has only won 3 (2-12 ATS).

ISU in their LHG - at 4-6 also plays better at home (B12- 10-3 SU/ 9-4 ATS) , as does TTech (-8 TO margin on the road). ISU off a loss (misleading - had 5 TO's) - TT off huge W. One team has to have the W - other not really - TT 5-5 with winnable on deck - only OU at home ha.
>> ISU / innovative D - has played well vs TT - 6-1 SU/ATS
 
bookieassassin said:
You bet - but as always, the SPOT is my primary focus....

Tulane/SMU - one of the most profitable home teams in CFB vs a bad road team - especially late in the season. Off a home loss -LHG - a weekday game - MUST WIN with Cinn on deck. Ponies have won 7 straight in the series (5-2 ATS). IMO Tulane is the better team this year - playing with a purpose. SMU should stay close tho. Last 14 games on the (November road) SMU has only won 3 (2-12 ATS).

ISU in their LHG - at 4-6 also plays better at home (B12- 10-3 SU/ 9-4 ATS) , as does TTech (-8 TO margin on the road). ISU off a loss (misleading - had 5 TO's) - TT off huge W. One team has to have the W - other not really - TT 5-5 with winnable on deck - only OU at home ha.
>> ISU / innovative D - has played well vs TT - 6-1 SU/ATS
Click to expand...

These are the insightful random thoughts that are the mind of a Genius at work…. Take advantage folks, mahalo BA.
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Any thoughts on Ok St/Oklahoma or BC/UNC? Any 1st h plays in any of the Saturday slate?
Click to expand...

OSU/OU - "its a trap !!!" ha

Well ..... the line 'tells us', that OSU QB Sanders is either out or severely limited - but HE'S STARTING (supposedly). OSU with a healthy Sanders earlier in the year, this line would be P or so. Now we're getting 7/7' ?
>> without Sanders Okie St O has been terrible - their D of course even worse as well (he's the heart of the team and maybe the MVP (to his team) in the country? But here's the thing - OU is not very good - they can RUN, that's about it - their D is just slightly better than OSU (#65 to #74 SP+). Their RUN D is turrible - last in the B12 at 5.4/rush - 21 TD's - 235y/g - so Okie St may find a running game here. Note don't forget OSU with a massive HC edge here - Gundy has entered Tom Herman Territory - as one of, if not THE best dog coach ever. Sooners have dominated this series, esp at home (8-1 SU/6-3 ats at home) - 6-1 su/ats overall - 16-3 su run - 13-1 su/10-4 ats when favored.
$ IMO you would have to be out of your freaking mind to play OU here - hell they just got their ass beat by lame duck HC/ Couch Burners , with a +2 TO margin - lost to the Bears at home the week before. So, a slam dunk OSU play, Vegas is handing us an early Christmas gift ?? Probably not - OU is the more desperate at 5-5 (@TT next) - in their LHG. Sanders will no doubt be less < 100% - how long will he be effective? - if it's 4Q Sooners get their sorry ass beat here - Gundy wins AGAIN. I'll likely make a small / value bet on OSU. NOTE: OU is a much better 1H team - OSU better in the 2H. OSU run D allows 5.7 1H / 3.2 2H.


BC / Irish - reckon that's the one you mean

Gotta be BC or nothing - bu QB MOREHEAD has energized them it seems (2-0 ats). Irish are horrible home favorites - esp laying 10+ - AND have USC on deck.
$ strong lean / smaller play BC - lean OVER.


Working on week 13/ BOWLS buddy - no time really to dive into 1h / 2h stuff
* but looking at (desperate) dogs, vs a disinterested favorite - "if they don't start strong they have no shot" kinda thing. Especially if you can play the favorite to come back 2H.

possible combos
ULL 1H / FSU 2H
WV 1H / KSU 2H - watch out Cats struggle there
SC/Vols
VT/Liberty
ILLINOIS +10 /Mich - might play this
Kent. / Ga
Temple/Cinn
TEXAS / KANSAS - played Horns
UMASS / sorry ass Aggies - might play this
LSU huge 2H if they start slow
Utah 2H if Nix out or slowed
BAYLOR/TCU
OU/OSU
MTS 2H
UTEP 2H - a 'bowl elimination' game believe it or not
JAKE HAENER 2H ***** - Nevada in their LHG - might play hard 1H
GA SO 2H - at 5-5 - I think they compete strong here, and win one half at least ha - Herd playing well as of late, but cannot be trusted
Ole Miss / Hogs ?
UTSA 2H
Terps / Buckeyes ?

MAYBE - Texas St 2H if down .... Troy 2H and/or ULM TT UNDER 2H if they score 1H (Troy D gives up NOTHING at home) ... either UNLV OR Hawaii 2H - Bow's D cannot hold up for 4Q, Bow's will fight like hell if down at half ....

BOL man ......... :shake:
 
Don't call me square af ....... just yet ha

adding smaller

UConn +10'

BIG PICTURE: UConn loses here - THEIR SEASON IS OVER

*Probably* anyway IMO - HC Mora knows it, and has addressed it publicly - 6 wins maybe ain't enough. Recall bowls ain't about 'rewarding' teams - it's providing a match-up that will sell tickets / hotels / TV money. Will UConn travel, maybe a long distance, and spend $$$ ?
>> SURE - they might still go, but they're playing really hard (7-0 ats run) - and I don't think they just quit here. Line tells me most think they'll still be celebrating - plus Army is in a must win situation. True, most of their wins were at home (Fresno, Liberty, and B College) - but they have covered 7/10 road games (back to 2021 even). Plus 10 points is a LOT in a very low scoring game....Huskies should be able to run the ball here - rush O #50 eff. wise - Army D #122 rushing eff. / #131 success rate
 
bookieassassin said:
Don't call me square af ....... just yet ha

adding smaller

UConn +10'

BIG PICTURE: UConn loses here - THEIR SEASON IS OVER

*Probably* anyway IMO - HC Mora knows it, and has addressed it publicly - 6 wins maybe ain't enough. Recall bowls ain't about 'rewarding' teams - it's providing a match-up that will sell tickets / hotels / TV money. Will UConn travel, maybe a long distance, and spend $$$ ?
>> SURE - they might still go, but they're playing really hard (7-0 ats run) - and I don't think they just quit here. Line tells me most think they'll still be celebrating - plus Army is in a must win situation. True, most of their wins were at home (Fresno, Liberty, and B College) - but they have covered 7/10 road games (back to 2021 even). Plus 10 points is a LOT in a very low scoring game....Huskies should be able to run the ball here - rush O #50 eff. wise - Army D #122 rushing eff. / #131 success rate
Click to expand...
Like this a lot
 
I forgot it was UConn's last game ha - I initially bought that angle too , but it makes no sense they just get comfortable with 6 wins. They seem to be playing with a purpose - and should fight like hell for 4Q here. Should bump this one up really - forgot the numbers, but a DD dog with a total this low, is a very high % play ...... :shake:
 
LSU -14'
Hogs +3
Liberty -9'
Tulane -2' .......W
Iowa St -2'
UConn +10'
EM +7 ............ W

smaller

Hawaii +10
Iowa +3
Duke +7'
Baylor +3
NW. +18
CLT +3
Texas -5 1H


leans/waiting

Illinois (RB ?)
Temple?
Navy?
Ga St?
Kansas at 10
Cal ???
ULM ?
MTS ??
Fresno

bumped up UConn
 
bookieassassin said:
Don't call me square af ....... just yet ha

adding smaller

UConn +10'

BIG PICTURE: UConn loses here - THEIR SEASON IS OVER

*Probably* anyway IMO - HC Mora knows it, and has addressed it publicly - 6 wins maybe ain't enough. Recall bowls ain't about 'rewarding' teams - it's providing a match-up that will sell tickets / hotels / TV money. Will UConn travel, maybe a long distance, and spend $$$ ?
>> SURE - they might still go, but they're playing really hard (7-0 ats run) - and I don't think they just quit here. Line tells me most think they'll still be celebrating - plus Army is in a must win situation. True, most of their wins were at home (Fresno, Liberty, and B College) - but they have covered 7/10 road games (back to 2021 even). Plus 10 points is a LOT in a very low scoring game....Huskies should be able to run the ball here - rush O #50 eff. wise - Army D #122 rushing eff. / #131 success rate
Click to expand...
Like UConn here as well. Thoughts on the O43.5? On paper this looks like a 17-14 game, but I really expect both offenses to do pretty well and don't think 3 tds each is too much to ask....
 
E. Mich & Tulane… 2 more Winners!! I could be a game off, but I show you surfing 11-1 on your last 12 posted plays!!

I think you found something special with Uconn +pts & ML. Simply 2 Teams with different agendas at this point, ditto Liberty vs Hokies 31-10 ((my score over a faded Va Tech (stick a fork) .

I’ve reached a fortunate 69-61 (53%) on the season after a 31-36 start and that doesn’t include this 2-0 week. Thanks entirely to you…Bookie Assassin. Stay the course I’ll always suggest to anyone who makes this a hobby, and do your own Due Dilligence. It will create your luck :) No Truer example, then our guy BA, who’s already “Capping the Bowl Games”before the Teams are even announced!! C’mon man, it’s next level as the kids say!! I just say “ BA is like.Johnnie Walker Blue LabeL. The top shelf” <clink go the glasses>

I’m printing up a select couple of T shirt’s in the Italian flag colors that simply states : “TREMENDO!!” Happy to send one out to the boys, once I confirm qty & size. Ha.

Helluva run BA!! Legendary, Thank you, keep charging!
 
BA, Thanks for all you do.

Out of LSU -14', Liberty -9', UConn +10' which one are you most confident? I'm trying to decide on which one team to include in my parlay
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Like UConn here as well. Thoughts on the O43.5? On paper this looks like a 17-14 game, but I really expect both offenses to do pretty well and don't think 3 tds each is too much to ask....
Click to expand...

slight lean to the over maybe.....

I might look for a live/2H play instead - slow start, you might get it really cheap. The problem is that BOTH play really slow (about 30 sec/play). I would say the bottom line here would be : how is Army moving the ball? - if they're moving the chains - staying on schedule ....... UConn should keep up (Army D stinks) - it could turn into some weird shootout type of game ......
 
M.W. said:
Mizzou 1H
Click to expand...

nothing wrong with laying the 17/17' for sure....

I'm doing Mizzou 2Q for sure - NMSU 4Q maybe

NMSU rush O (1Q > 4Q) - 6.4 - 3.7 - 3.5 - 3.7
rush D - 5.0 - 4.9 - 3.9 - 3.1

Mizzou rush O - 3.7 - 4.6 -4.3 - 2.9
D - 3.7 - 2.8 - 4.4 - 4.4

NMSU scoring O rank - # 126 ----------- bad all 4
D - #110 - #130 - #59 - #4 ffs

Mizzou scoring O - 113 - 65 - 30 - 116
D - 58 - 37 - 73 - 106

* factoring in SOS / athletic advantages - disadvantages of course - but probably an underrated handicapping tool : considering how well a HC game plans, and is able to make in-game adjustments. Above from cfbstats.com and teamrankings
 
Wolfeman said:
E. Mich & Tulane… 2 more Winners!! I could be a game off, but I show you surfing 11-1 on your last 12 posted plays!!

I think you found something special with Uconn +pts & ML. Simply 2 Teams with different agendas at this point, ditto Liberty vs Hokies 31-10 ((my score over a faded Va Tech (stick a fork) .

I’ve reached a fortunate 69-61 (53%) on the season after a 31-36 start and that doesn’t include this 2-0 week. Thanks entirely to you…Bookie Assassin. Stay the course I’ll always suggest to anyone who makes this a hobby, and do your own Due Dilligence. It will create your luck :) No Truer example, then our guy BA, who’s already “Capping the Bowl Games”before the Teams are even announced!! C’mon man, it’s next level as the kids say!! I just say “ BA is like.Johnnie Walker Blue LabeL. The top shelf” <clink go the glasses>

I’m printing up a select couple of T shirt’s in the Italian flag colors that simply states : “TREMENDO!!” Happy to send one out to the boys, once I confirm qty & size. Ha.

Helluva run BA!! Legendary, Thank you, keep charging!
Click to expand...
TREMENDO B.A.
 
bookieassassin said:
added a few

LSU -14'
Hogs +3
Liberty -9'

Iowa +3 smaller
Duke +7' smaller


Seldom if ever .... do I predict a team is gonna get annihilated - in fact I love to make fun of guys that (mostly) love to cap these blowouts. BUT LSU is 'building a team' - really fast too - they are in no position and mindset to take a week off here. BK can in no way allow a letdown here, in their last home game (LHG). A&M would normally be a huge lookahead - but they're only a TD or so better than UAB anyway. Best part? - UAB stunk in this spot when they were a much BETTER team - WITH their outstanding HC. They should get killed here.

Liberty on the surface seems shaky ..... BUT as you might have noticed - they need a challenge to get up. Hokies aren't really, but they are a NAME team that Freeze will want to beat up. Not much to suggest he can't. Huge game for Liberty - who gets zero respect.

BTW - ha
>> LSU didn't suffer a 'letdown' at Arkansas (really) - HOGS are tough. A HORRIBLE spot for a beaten and broken Ole Miss / Kiffin. Off a bye, they expected to beat Bama - NOW they travel to a desperate 5 win Arkansas - off a home loss - final home game, only Mizzou on deck. Hogs should win here.

Like both Iowa and Duke - but just solid value plays - no 'mental edge' IMO so smaller.
Click to expand...
TREMENDO!!!! sir I am marrying your pics this week 'cause you are GREAT!!! thank you B.A.
 
added SMALL - juiced a bit - played extra small on ML

MTS +6

>> FAU stinks on the road (3 su wins last 15 ffs), and off huge win over 'rival' FIU (gives us 2-3 value points here)- MTS (should) finish strong in their LHG

D-UP ! - thanks BOL today buddy - that damn MAC is tough this year ha

Good man PL -
 
small

Okie St 2H +0.5

Sanders might not be healthy enough - so cautious .... OU is a 1H team / OSU a great 2H team. Cowboys allow 5.7/rush 1H > 3.2 2H
>> OU D falls off 2H big - trenches weaken as game progresses (can't run 4Q / only 3.6)
 
I know you’re not on here just for us to sing praises, but you have an amazing skill spotting value in these teams—and it’s that way every single year!! Tip of the hat, BA…another great week and much appreciated my man.
 
2dawgnation2 said:
I know you’re not on here just for us to sing praises, but you have an amazing skill spotting value in these teams—and it’s that way every single year!! Tip of the hat, BA…another great week and much appreciated my man.
Click to expand...
ABSOLUTELY AGREE!! TREMENDO AND GREATER! ALWAYS B >A has found his HOME! Been with him for years "UNTOUCHABLE"!! winners 41
 
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