Week 12

[mrpickem]

​	Week 11 - [20-18 +6.95u] Season - [74-84 -44.72u]​
	301 Akron +25½ -105 vs Kent State 3/2.86 301 Akron/Kent State Under 59 -107 2/1.87 303 Buffalo -30½ -107 vs Bowling Green 4/3.74

Gotta love the MAC for spreading these games and giving us action every fucking night

Crazy state: In non-Saturday games in the MAC with favorite over 14 points, the chalk wins 62% and when favorite is on the road, they cover 81.5%(22-5) see:BUFF

 

[mrpickem]

Here's another angle for tonight

After either team scored at least 50 in last game and the total 60 or less in conference game, the under has come through 58% and 60% 2018-2019...so far this year it's only 4-6 or 40% but I'm expecting this one to come around as it's only been a loser 1 year of the 15 years tracked by SDQL
This angle courtesy of @BenchCoach

 

[2daBank]

Ummm. Not to be judgey but your “Angie for tonight” is missing a umm “angle” to help me focus if you get my drift???

 

[2daBank]

Much better. Now I’m seeing the Angle quite well!!

 

[2daBank]

Is that for the Akron under?

 

[mrpickem]

Is that for the Akron under?

yes sir :shake:

 

[Timh]

BOL MRP.

 

[mrpickem]

​	0-3 last night....this MAC can be brutal ​
	311 Toledo/Eastern Michigan Over 61½ -105 3/2.86 312 Eastern Michigan +6½ -102 vs Toledo 3/2.94 313 Western Michigan/Central Michigan Over 59 -105 4/81

 

[inZane]

​	0-3 last night....this MAC can be brutal ​
	311 Toledo/Eastern Michigan Over 61½ -105 3/2.86 312 Eastern Michigan +6½ -102 vs Toledo 3/2.94 313 Western Michigan/Central Michigan Over 59 -105 4/81

I have a question Mr. P.

If MAC road favorites are covering at a 81.5% clip, why the fade of Toledo (-6.5) at E. Mich tonight?

 

[Eric Antrobus]

I have a question Mr. P.

If MAC road favorites are covering at a 81.5% clip, why the fade of Toledo (-6.5) at E. Mich tonight?

Probably because EMU has an insane record against the spread as a dog with Creighton at the helm. Even better than the 81.5. So it’s a really tough call. I lean Toledo but will most likely stay off.

 

[rochclone]

I have a question Mr. P.

If MAC road favorites are covering at a 81.5% clip, why the fade of Toledo (-6.5) at E. Mich tonight?

EMU is 16-2-1 in the last 4.5 years as a dog in conference play. 26-4-1 when you consider games outside of the conference. Fairly insane but Toledo is a team that could cause them some trouble.

 

[mrpickem]

​	2-1 +1.8u last night was decent.​
	425 Tulane/Tulsa Under 53 -103 2/1.94

The EMU side was obviously wrong, but the 2 tots bailed me out :teethgrill:​

 

[mrpickem]

​	0-1 last night​
	325 Syracuse/Louisville Under 56½ -101 2/1.98 327 Purdue -2 -108 vs Minnesota U 3/2.78 327 Purdue/Minnesota Under 61 -105 2/1.9 329 New Mexico/Air Force Under 55½ -103 2/1.94 429 Massachusetts/Florida Atlantic Under 51 -101 3/2.97

Talk about a bad beat, 3 TD's scored in last 3:20 to force OT and another 12 points in OT to go over by 1 fukn point last night!

Oh well...moving on: I really think this FAU defense is legit, in 5 games the highest points they've allowed is 19 last week against FIU in atrocious conditions. UMass offense appears to be straight trash, scoring 0 and 10 points in their only 2 games of the year. They should struggle to get into double digits and FAU isn't the type to run up the score so I think this under seems pretty easy.

Also totals of 42 to 65 non-Saturday games have went under 56% last 8+ years



If you eliminate just 4 conferences, the under goes up to 60% when the total 42-67 in non-Saturday games

https://imgur.com/a/9qhKsEW

 

[mrpickem]

​

FRIDAY - [3-2 +1.89u] WEEK 11 - [5-7 -7.31u] SEASON - [79-91 -45.45u]​

335 Virginia Tech -3 -110 vs Pittsburgh U 2.98/2.71 341 East Carolina/Temple Under 56½ -105 2.1/2 344 Central Florida +4 -105 vs Cincinnati U 3/2.86 345 Mississippi State +25 -103 vs Georgia 3/2.91 345 Mississippi State/Georgia Under 44 -108 1.99/1.84 353 Missouri/South Carolina Under 57 -102 3/2.94 357 Indiana +20½ -105 vs Ohio State 3/2.86 361 Michigan -12 -105 vs Rutgers 3/2.86 361 Michigan/Rutgers Under 52 -105 3/2.86 365 Georgia Southern +3½ -113 vs Army 3.03/2.68 373 Florida International +7 +105 vs Western Kentucky 3/3.15 373 Florida International/Western Kentucky Under 42½ -105 3/2.86 379 California/Oregon State Under 46½ -105 3/2.86 385 UTSA/Southern Mississipp* Under 52 -107 3/2.80 389 Illinois +16½ -105 vs Nebraska 3/2.86 389 Illinois/Nebraska Over 60 -105 3/2.86 395 Wisconsin/Northwestern Under 44 -105 3/2.86 407 Georgia State -3½ -108 vs South Alabama 4/3.7 423 Boise State/Hawaii Under 55½ -106 3/2.83

​

 

[mrpickem]

​
	399 Florida Over 28 -115 vs Vanderbilt for 1st Half 3.68/3.2

This is my only play for the Gators today. Kyle Trask has been nothing short of amazing this year, and this game he gets to play a winless Vanderbilt team that plays hard but pretty much blows. The 1H team total is 28 so I need 4 TDs. UF comes out the gate fast and this is more then do-able against the poor D of Vanderbilt.

 

[mrpickem]

​	2 moar...​
	341 East Carolina -235 vs Temple 4.7/2 385 UTSA -9 -102 vs Southern Mississippi 4.02/3.94

ECU -3½ ... Temple is starting their 4th string QB, a true freshman. Their starting RB opted out a couple weeks ago. Rod Carey is a terrible coach and I really doubt he'll be able to come up with a gameplan to compensate for the losses. ECU's defense is trash, but you'd think they'd be able to keep a 4th string QB in check somewhat. Their offense looked pretty good against a tough Tulsa D in a game they should have won, and I think they're going to come out inspired after seeing how pissed their coach was after the end of the Cincy game. :shocked: LOL, line moved to 6½ within 30 minutes, so Ima ML the bitch...no way Pirates lose here.

UTSA -9 ...Southern Miss is on their 3rd head coach of the season and are going to be starting their 3rd string QB, who went 6-14 for 67 yards last week against Western Kentucky. UTSA is coming off a 52-21 win against UTEP and is getting their stud RB back for this game after he missed last week attending the birth of his kid I think the new daddy will have a big game and UTSA easily wins by double digits.

 

[mrpickem]

Here's a 62.5% ats doggy spot

Home conference fav after a home game vs team on at least their 2nd straight away game...at least the 6th game of the year for the past 10+ years



Tenny now catching 10½ while Okie State only 6½...I'm still considering action here

 

[mrpickem]

If you take the previous angle and simply consider the home favs of 7 or less, the road dog cover 75% over 10 years and 10-3-2 since last year :confused3:

 

[Eric Antrobus]

Wow, great find on Jutta.