Saints/Texans
Could things be much worse for NO? Could the market be much lower for NO? Not really to both questions and so much so that Drew Brees is a 3 pt dog to Brian Hoyer. To give credit to the Texans they're much better in their last couple of games and Hopkins will be a problem for one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Watt has the Texan D humming along as well right now but who is the real Texan D? The one who surrendered 370 yds per in their first 7 or the one who is only surrendering 245 in their last 3. Thing is they're still giving up about 29 pts a game during both the 7 and 3 game sample. NO can score and Cook could be the big play guy on the other side opposite Hopkins. The firing of Ryan plus the bye week I'm thinking gives NO a much needed shot in the arm in a lost season. I'm expecting a better effort here from the Saints and Houston will come back to Earth at some point. They're not the team who we've seen the last 3 weeks.
Giants/Redskins
The battle for first place in the NFC LEast. LOL. Yeah, just say that again without laughing. Division is there for the taking for whoever wants it. No way is Washington a division winner IMO. Process of elimination says NYG win the division after Dallas' season went up in broke (see what I did there?) on Turkey Day. And the debacle that is Philly actually might rival the train wreck in the Washington front office. So that leaves these two teams to fight it out for the Division this year. NYG are definitely the class of these two teams without a doubt. I think the Giants have better personnel across the board. Skins lost Culliver as well this week so a thin secondary that was gonna have trouble stopping Eli and OBJ now have to do it without maybe they're best DB (not saying much there anyways). Eli torches the Redskins: 1200 yds, 67% comp, 11 td, 3 int in his last 5 and I believe the Redskins have lost all five of those as well. The Giants just have their number. From the game earlier this season the Skins turned it over 3 times but other than that the stats say it was pretty even but I don't think the game was even as close as the 11 pt margin. It took a KO return TD for the final margin and the Giants were also in the midst of blowing several games in the 4Q. Washington does play better at home but as has been documented before if Cousins turns it over it's lights out. If he doesn't they have a chance I suppose. I just don't see him playing a clean game. Blueprint on how to get to Cousins is out there and I'm low on Cousins as he's way too inconsistent and isn't close to Eli's class. Injuries gonna catch up to the Skins too as they haven't done a very good job building depth IMO. Giants have the talent and leadership to take advantage of the opportunity in front of them. They've been there and done that before while the Skins have not. Giants are the better team and are the eventual division champs. They've also had two weeks to watch the events play out in the division and get ready for this week. They'll be ready while the Skins are licking their wounds. Sunday they put a little distance between them and won't look back. Giants get a comfy division win on the road against a team that shouldn't be in the talk of a division lead. True colors will show through tomorrow.
Chargers/Jags
Looks like I got a bad line here but the Jags are really layin 4.5 now? Say that again, the Jags are layin 4.5? Buying low on the Chargers and selling high on the Jags. I know the west to east is hard on teams from the left coast. And I know the Chargers are banged up and in the middle of a dismal season. But I like Rivers and he isn't a quitter. Both teams on streaks going in opposite directions and in this league today those streaks come to an end sooner or later. This is an ugly play for sure and could be dead wrong but the Jags aren't ready for all this love just yet. Pump the brakes and hold your nose and I'm putting my faith in Rivers.
49ers/Cardinals
Another ugly one here. Cards coming in off two huge wins requiring big efforts. Now playing the doormat of the division this year on the road after beating the Seahawks and Bengals seems like a flat spot to me. It's hard to continue to 'get up' for games week after week and after two high stress games it's natural to exhale a little. Especially against the 49ers. Max effort on the other side for the 9ers though. The Cards are clearly the better team getting ready for a playoff run. But some of the 9ers are playing for their job now. Ain't nothin that lights a fire under someone's ass than the threat of getting the ole pink slip. Cards win but it's one of those where they'll do just enough to get the W and get out of dodge. The home dog of 7/10 helps here too but situational plays been dog shit in this league this year so take that for what it's worth.
Steelers/Seahawks
I'm gonna go ahead and discount last weeks performance for the Hags against the 9ers. Rawls looked good but is he really that guy? Probably not. Is he serviceable as a backup while BeastMode is out? I guess only time will tell but I'm thinking he's more the undrafted guy than the 200yd game guy. While the Steeler D isn't what it used to be it's much more formidable than the 9er D was last week. And I've said the Seahawks success were primarily because of the run game and D the past couple of years. Wilson is an avg QB and it's showing without Lynch and the dominant D to rely on. And I love it cause I can't stand the Seahawks. Their house is a tough one to play in but if there's a QB I'd trust that could go to their house and be ok Big Ben would be one of them. The Seahawk D isn't as dominant as the past and he should be able to move the ball as the O is in a nice groove the past couple of weeks. The Steeler D should be able to contain Rawls and make Russell beat them which I don't think he can do. They've under utilized Jimmy Graham IMO and without a dominant run game to rely on they might have a tough time finding yards. My money says Ben can handle the 12th man just fine and gives his team a chance to win at the gun.
Broncos/Patriots
Pats injuries are starting to pile up and the injury to the Bronco QB could actually be a blessing in disguise. Osweiler played a pretty good game last week and that's the kind of game it will take here. Mistake free, give it to your RB's, and play great D. That Bronco D is built for games like this so all that money Elway spent he spent it to win games against the AFC's best. Well it's time for them to earn their money. It helps that the Pats will be without their top two receivers but it'll take a big effort from the defense to keep the Broncos in this one. And I think they have what it takes to get the job done. Pressure Brady and make him uncomfortable which they can do. This is more than likely going to go a long way to deciding HFA through the AFC playoffs. Short week for the Pats helps and I said last week that I thought they'd either lose last week or this week. Well I'll put my money where my mouth is. I don't think they do undefeated but if they get through this week they might just have a shot. Brady short handed but he's always found a way to make due with whatever he could pull off the shelf. But sooner or later that catches up to you. Broncos 2-0 ATS as a dog this year and I'm hoping Elway spent his money wisely and the best D in the league comes to play tomorrow.
