Week 12 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

It was a pretty good week, 8-5, which brings the season long total to 74-64-2. Not great, but at least it's a little better than a coin flip (.536). As for the post mortem, I got some breaks on non-offensive TDs for once, but also fell victim to the North Texas/Army fiasco, so it all pretty much evened out. The last three weeks have been 27-12 (I think) so you might say I'm due for a clunker. Let's hope not.

I don't know about everyone else, but I've always been a guy that appreciates analytics. I have to use them in my job, and I used to love getting Baseball Prospectus every late January to read what the smart guys had to say about the coming baseball season. They(and Moneyball) kind of tarted a revolution in baseball and it was followed by various versions in all sports. In football, it shows up in a lot of ways, and one of the most visible in football are the analytics of going for it, both on 4th down and in going for 2. The percentages seem to indicate that the traditional coaching decisions were too conservative and that the numbers say that going for it on 4th down is the right move much more often than Coach Hardass would assume. I would welcome this thinking, but it's becoming very obvious that those numbers assume a "default" level of competence for both teams. This is almost never the case. The "numbers" never adjust for idiotic play design and brain dead offensive coordinators who call slow developing run plays from 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage that get blown up by safeties who started the play lined up in the secondary. If I'm Mississippi State and it's 4th and 3 on the 13 yard line, should I assume that my chances of making this are as good as what the percentages say when I know my entire offensive line is going to be blown into my backfield? Or if Florida's 3rd string pansy QB is behind center, should I assume that the sneak is a 78% probability against Ole Miss's defensive line, for example? There is no way that there is enough specific data on those types of situations, but they are now providing cover for lazy coaches who after failing will shrug their shoulders and say, "well, you can't blame me, I was only playing the percentages like the book tells me." In many cases it just reinforces the view that many of us have: If not for the culture bubble of football, many of these coaches, if football were eliminated and they were left to their intellect to fend for themselves, a good 65-70% of them would be homeless.


Houston +1.5 LOSS
Wyoming +9.5 LOSS
Tulane -7 WIN
Michigan State +3 LOSS
SMU -18 LOSS
Baylor -1 WIN
Rutgers +6.5 WIN
San Jose State +14 LOSS
Georgia -9 WIN
South Carolina -13 LOSS
Kansas +2.5 WIN

5-6

Friday:

1. Houston +1.5 @Arizona (BOL) : This is a game featuring two teams moving in different directions, and in my opinion, coached by two coaches that are at different ends of the pecking order as well. Houston had a terrible start to the season, but they were hampered by a terrible offense that Willie Fritz and his staff didn't have a handle on. They've since made the move away from Donovan Smith and to Zeon Chriss at QB, and although they aren't setting the world on fire, they've won 3 out of the last 4 and Chriss went a perfect 12/12 last week in a win against K State. They've beaten K State, Utah and TCU in the past 4 weeks, all as a dog, doing just enough on offense to supplement a defense that under Fritz and DC Shiel Wood has been good all year. Arizona has been on a death spiral, having lost 5 in a row including blowouts to Colorado(at home) and UCF who humiliated them 56-12 their last time out. They are now 3-6 and that's against an easier schedule than Houston has seen(Cougars have played the #10 schedule in the country per Sagarin). I've never been much of a believer in Brett Brennan and I think this Fritz staff is easily the better staff. I can see why a book wouldn't make Houston a road favorite but I think they're the better team at this point.

The actual scrimmaging of this game didn't disprove my saying Houston was the better team. The incessant going for it on 4th down(which Houston was 0-4 in doing) had such an impact on the game that Houston lost this game 27-3 despite beating Arizona in yards per play. They went up and down the field, but because they couldn't convert a 3rd or 4th down, and they gave the ball to Arizona with short fields all night, the score wasn't close.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love the analytics 'rant'.

I'm all for teams being more aggressive but we need a second handicap for stupidity.

Whoever makes a program to factor in coaching will be living pretty!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Also Friday:

2. Wyoming +9.5 @ Colorado State (BR) : When I run the numbers on this game using season long stats, it really doesn't give an indication of where these two teams are currently, and that's especially true for Wyoming. Throughout most of the year, the Cowboys were trying to figure things out and frankly, it took awhile. Evan Swoboda, the original starter, never exhibited anything resembling competence, leading to him hitting the bench in favor of Kaden Anderson two games ago after Anderson relived Swoboda during their loss to San Jose State. In his two starts, Anderson has been a big upgrade, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and 67% completions. Wyoming also got RB Harrison Waylee back, which I talked about last week and he jumped right back in with 170 yards last week against New Mexico, helping the Cowboys pile up 603 total yards in the game, something that Wyoming fans wouldn't have dreamed of earlier in the year, even against a bunch of strategically placed traffic cones. To be clear, a good game against the New Mexico defense does not mean we have a juggernaut, but at least Wyoming is on a bit of a roll. Colorado State is currently undefeated in conference, and they are on track to make the Mountain West title game, which is probably a surprise even to them. They are at 6-3 overall, and they've had a good year, but they are not a MWC title contender in my opinion, and I think they'll prove that by coughing up their chance. If you look at the past two weeks, they've won, but the results are shaky. They were outgained by more than 100 yards against both New Mexico and Nevada, and they scored only 17 points on the same New Mexico team that Wyoming just torched last week. They somehow only gave up 6 total points in that game despite the Lobos gaining 453 yards...quite a fluky result. The Rams can run the ball well, and I suspect the Cowboys will be at their mercy in that regard a little bit, but since Tory Horton has gone out for the year, they can't really throw the ball. Wyoming game up 400+ yards rushing and 14(yes that's correct, 14!!!) yards per attempt, but this rush offense looks nothing like the Dampier/Sellers combo that ran roughshod on the Cowboys last week. It's a combo of a Wyoming team on the rose and feeling good about itself against a Colorado State team that looks like they've been living on borrowed time. I think Wyoming will be in this game throughout, so I'll definitely take the 9.5 here.

Wyoming's stone-handed receivers deprived us of a back door cover here, but they really were never in this game and a back door cover would not have been deserving if it happened.

 

[CPA-hole]

Also huge rivalry game in FOCO. Wyo has showed a pulse. CSU luck box schedule avoiding both Boise and UNLV.

I still think CSU better in trenches. But I'm not laying DDs here. CSU also has the pressure of knowing if they win out, they'll be in the MW title game. I don't see it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Also huge rivalry game in FOCO. Wyo has showed a pulse. CSU luck box schedule avoiding both Boise and UNLV.

I still think CSU better in trenches. But I'm not laying DDs here. CSU also has the pressure of knowing if they win out, they'll be in the MW title game. I don't see it.

Totally agree with your last sentence. I think they spit the bit, and I definitely failed in mentioning how much of a rivalry this is in that part of the country. Thanks CPA.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Tulane -7 @Navy (BR) : Laying points against a service academy is obviously something I'd rather not make a habit of, but in this case, I think it's prudent. Navy has had a great year, but like Army, much of their success can be playing well against a very suspect schedule. When they've stepped up in class, their defense has looked extremely vulnerable, as both Notre Dame and Memphis were able to move the ball at will. They were able to knock off Memphis because they matched them score for score, but Memphis had little ability to stop Navy at a time when their offense was catching people completely by surprise. Now that they have a lot of things on tape, and especially now that Blake Horvath's ability to throw has been hampered by his bad thumb(which doesn't seem to be getting better), the Navy offense has been relying more on short fields brought about by turnover luck. When they haven't had that(ND and Rice) they've ben borderline non-competitive. Now Tulane comes in, who has proven that they are on par with Notre Dame and Memphis offensively. Darrien Mensah has been very good all year against teams at Navy's level, and he's also been pretty good against K State and Oklahoma, who are Tulane's only losses. The K State loss was a complete crock as the Green Wave was hit with a terrible offensive pass interference call that wiped out a tying TD in the final minute. Mehki Hughes is a dynamic runner who already has over 1200 yards on the ground and I seriously doubt Navy can cover Mario Williams, who's averaging 17 yards per catch. Defensively, Tulane hasn't played an offense like Navy but HC Jon Sumrall has. His time at troy included a couple dominant defensive efforts against Army, and he has proven his worth. I'm still not a huge believer in Brian Newberry, and Tulane needs this game to stay in the at large race for the CFB. Tulane has run just about everyone they've played out of the stadium lately, and I think they'll take care of business here. I wouldn't go much over 7 though.

Rocking chair cover here. You've got to have your head examined if you fade Tulane against a team power rated outside about #35.

 

[inZane]

Also Friday:

2. Wyoming +9.5 @ Colorado State (BR) : When I run the numbers on this game using season long stats, it really doesn't give an indication of where these two teams are currently, and that's especially true for Wyoming. Throughout most of the year, the Cowboys were trying to figure things out and frankly, it took awhile. Evan Swoboda, the original starter, never exhibited anything resembling competence, leading to him hitting the bench in favor of Kaden Anderson two games ago after Anderson relived Swoboda during their loss to San Jose State. In his two starts, Anderson has been a big upgrade, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and 67% completions. Wyoming also got RB Harrison Waylee back, which I talked about last week and he jumped right back in with 170 yards last week against New Mexico, helping the Cowboys pile up 603 total yards in the game, something that Wyoming fans wouldn't have dreamed of earlier in the year, even against a bunch of strategically placed traffic cones. To be clear, a good game against the New Mexico defense does not mean we have a juggernaut, but at least Wyoming is on a bit of a roll. Colorado State is currently undefeated in conference, and they are on track to make the Mountain West title game, which is probably a surprise even to them. They are at 6-3 overall, and they've had a good year, but they are not a MWC title contender in my opinion, and I think they'll prove that by coughing up their chance. If you look at the past two weeks, they've won, but the results are shaky. They were outgained by more than 100 yards against both New Mexico and Nevada, and they scored only 17 points on the same New Mexico team that Wyoming just torched last week. They somehow only gave up 6 total points in that game despite the Lobos gaining 453 yards...quite a fluky result. The Rams can run the ball well, and I suspect the Cowboys will be at their mercy in that regard a little bit, but since Tory Horton has gone out for the year, they can't really throw the ball. Wyoming game up 400+ yards rushing and 14(yes that's correct, 14!!!) yards per attempt, but this rush offense looks nothing like the Dampier/Sellers combo that ran roughshod on the Cowboys last week. It's a combo of a Wyoming team on the rose and feeling good about itself against a Colorado State team that looks like they've been living on borrowed time. I think Wyoming will be in this game throughout, so I'll definitely take the 9.5 here.

Agreed, and taking the over as well just for insurance...

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Michigan State +3 (-117) @Illinois (BR) : Both teams are coming off a bye, and I think this is probably a bad time to be playing Michigan State. Their last time out they were blitzkrieged by Indiana for 47 straight points after they took an early 10 point lead. Jonathan Smith is one of my favorite coaches and knows how to scheme up a script. If they get ahead and Michigan State can get a pass rush going, Illinois line, which struggles in all phases, will have a hard time keeping Luke Altmyer upright. Illinois's defense is also very vulnerable to athletic running QBs and Aiden Chiles fits that bill provided he can avoid turnovers. Illinois started great in that department early in the season, but they've only forced a handful other than the Michigan game since their second game of the year. In addition, they'll be without 2 of their best defensive players as LB Dylan Rosiek(green dot) broke his leg and is out for the year, and their other potential green dot guy, safety Miles Scott is suspended for the first half due to a targeting call against Minnesota two weeks ago. They struggle mightily in coverage against tight ends, so I suspect Jack Velling will have a big day. MSU is solid against the run defensively, so if they can find a way to slow down Bryant and Franklin on the perimeter, I think they'll be in good shape. Illinois locked up a bowl weeks ago, but MSU still is fighting for a bowl in year one of Smith, and I have been waiting for a chance to hop on the Jonathan Smith train. In this spot coming off a bye with what looks like a little bot of a motivational edge, I think this is the time.

This was a bad play based merely on wishcasting, or an attempt to confirm an opinion on Jonathan Smith. Chiles was terrible. MSU was not worth the positivity of the writeup. Kudos to Illini for playing well on defense with a short handed group. Bielema has some depth there.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @SMU -18 v Boston College (BOL) : I'm not really sure what happened to BC QB Thomas Castellanos, but he got benched for backup Grayson James in their win against Syracuse last week after producing only 4(!!) total yards. In the subsequent days, Bill O'Brien announced James as the starter moving forward, saying it's "in the team's best interests". A couple days later, Castellanos had the "thank you BC" Instagram post and he is hitting the transfer portal. To me, it sems like he got shooed into the portal, but who knows? Grayson James isn't good...we know that from his time at FIU and his impotent performance the week he played against WKU. BC didn't need a quarterback last week because they ran all over Syracuse and their soft plushie of a run defense, but they'll be facing the 6th ranked run defense in the country this week. It's really a bad matchup for the Eagles on both sides of the ball. BC's major issues on defense are in coverage, and SMU throws it effectively(10th in yards per pass attempt). BC can't throw it, so they have to run, which SMU has covered, but SMU is also good on 3rd down, which BC excels at due to their running prowess. SMU is also in a position where they need style points if they are to have a shot at an at large bid. We all know it's probably ACC title or bust for them to get into the playoff, but they might not know it. SMU has taken care of business in this typ e of game before, blowing the doors off of Pitt a couple weeks ago. If Grayson Moore engineers a bunch of effective drives against a very solid defense on the road, I'll tip my cap, but I'll lay this with a team that is used to covering in this spot (14-6 as a home favorite since '21)

Hats off to BC here. 417 yards on offense, which I did not think they were capable of under James. They ran it against a good run D too. SMU never really had a good handle on this game. Another sizable favorite that did not cash.

 

[Frank Costanza]

5. @SMU -18 v Boston College (BOL) : I'm not really sure what happened to BC QB Thomas Castellanos, but he got benched for backup Grayson James in their win against Syracuse last week after producing only 4(!!) total yards. In the subsequent days, Bill O'Brien announced James as the starter moving forward, saying it's "in the team's best interests". A couple days later, Castellanos had the "thank you BC" Instagram post and he is hitting the transfer portal. To me, it sems like he got shooed into the portal, but who knows? Grayson James isn't good...we know that from his time at FIU and his impotent performance the week he played against WKU. BC didn't need a quarterback last week because they ran all over Syracuse and their soft plushie of a run defense, but they'll be facing the 6th ranked run defense in the country this week. It's really a bad matchup for the Eagles on both sides of the ball. BC's major issues on defense are in coverage, and SMU throws it effectively(10th in yards per pass attempt). BC can't throw it, so they have to run, which SMU has covered, but SMU is also good on 3rd down, which BC excels at due to their running prowess. SMU is also in a position where they need style points if they are to have a shot at an at large bid. We all know it's probably ACC title or bust for them to get into the playoff, but they might not know it. SMU has taken care of business in this typ e of game before, blowing the doors off of Pitt a couple weeks ago. If Grayson Moore engineers a bunch of effective drives against a very solid defense on the road, I'll tip my cap, but I'll lay this with a team that is used to covering in this spot (14-6 as a home favorite since '21)

Love SMU in this spot. On top of everything noted, Lashlee and SMU were abysmal against this same BC team in the bowl game last season in Fenway.

Ponies like to destroy teams at home. Given where things are, style points matter and they'll be easy to get against a beaten down and overmatched BC.

51 - 20 type game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Love SMU in this spot. On top of everything noted, Lashlee and SMU were abysmal against this same BC team in the bowl game last season in Fenway.

Ponies like to destroy teams at home. Given where things are, style points matter and they'll be easy to get against a beaten down and overmatched BC.

51 - 20 type game.

Good point Frank. I forgot about the bowl game last year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Baylor -1 @West Virginia (BOL) : Over the years, West Virginia has ben a very good home team, but not this year. They had two big home tests in recent weeks (Iowa State, Kansas State) and lost them both pretty convincingly. On the road, they've been resourceful, including last week at Cincinnati, but now they go back home to take on a Baylor team that's really turned things around. They're on a 3 game winning streak which has gotten them to 5-4 on the year, and they've taken a couple of tough losses to BYU and Colorado, most notably the Colorado loss which featured the famous hail Mary that put the game into OT. The full time move to Sawyer Robinson at QB has been the biggest catalyst for the Bears, as he's led their offense to 500 yard performances in each of the last 3 weeks. He shouldn't have much trouble this week either, as West Virginia ranks 101st in yards per play and is among the worst team in FBS at stopping the pass(132nd in yards per attempt against). They are helpless in coverage. Although West Virginia competes well against the run, Baylor should be able to run it on them too, as they're ranked 17th in yards per rush. West Virginia wants to run, but Baylor's forte on defense is stopping the run, and I don't think Garrett Greene or Nico Marichol will have success throwing it on Baylor. Very good matchup for a Baylor team on a roll, and against a WV squad that hasn't had hardly any success at home. I think Baylor gets it done here.

2 of West Virginia's TDs were very questionable as to whether the ball carrier got in, but it didn't end up mattering. Baylor's offense has been excellent over the past 6 weeks or so.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Rutgers +6.5 @Maryland (BR) : I faded Rutgers in their worst role last week, and lost, so I'll play them in what has usually been a good role for them(road dog) and hopefully it pays off. Ultimately I have these two teams matched up as just about identical. Neither team does anything all that well, which means I don't think the game will feature any mismatches between units. Rutgers made great strides off the ball and totally shut down a very good runner in Minnesota's Darius Taylor, but even if they didn't, Maryland has had almost no success running the ball this year. They've been better against the pass, which is good news against Maryland because Billy Edwards likes to chuck it downfield. Maryland has stopped the run pretty well, but they've not been able to slow down passing attacks. They rank 100th in yards per pass attempt against, and they absolutely cannot rush the passer (129th in sack rate) so the Greek pop gun will actually have some time to find people, and he's been better lately. I don' think Maryland has he chops to run away from the Scarlet Knights here, so I'll snap up the 6.5.

Nice win for the Knights here. Maryland is hard to trust as a home favorite, and it worked out for me.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Good work as usual, Brass

Stanford Steve is hitting 66% on his Gameday picks. Here are the picks he made on ESPN Bets

Kansas/Byu o 56x
San Jose State +14
Georgia/Tenn u 47x
Texas/Arkansas o 57x
Colorado -11

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @San Jose State +14 v Boise State: The Spartans look like they'll be game at home this week, as Boise represents their super bowl. Their run defense is probably the best that Boise has faced within the Mountain west, so they'll have a fighting chance against Ashton Jeanty. Boise Qb Maddux Madsen has looked better than he is because weaker defensive teams have had to bum rush Jeanty to keep from being run over, making things really easy for Madsen to find wide open receivers. If they can contain Jeanty, they might be able to force Madsen into mistakes. Also, Boise's defense has been very vulnerable to good passing attacks, and with Nick Nash out there catching everything, the Spartans qualify as that. They are among the best pass rushing teams in the country, which they need to be because of their lack of covering prowess, but SJSU is 4th in sack rate on offense, so they do as good a job of protecting the QB as anyone. Boise has had clear sailing, but I think they're going to a tough test here in San Jose, so I'll take the 2 TDs.

Brutal beat here as a late pick 6 took this from a 14 point game to the final. DB should have slid, but whatever.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Good work as usual, Brass

Stanford Steve is hitting 66% on his Gameday picks. Here are the picks he made on ESPN Bets

Kansas/Byu o 56x
San Jose State +14
Georgia/Tenn u 47x
Texas/Arkansas o 57x
Colorado -11

Glad to see he's on SJSU!

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Georgia -9 v Tennessee (BOL) : I've been against Georgia several times this year, including last week, and that's for good reason. Offensively they haven't really been good since the opener against Clemson, and there's plenty of mediocrity that they've exhibited on defense as well, especially when they've had guys out with injury. I was tempted to just assume that Tennessee's solid DL would continue the misery for Georgia, and they might do that for long stretches, but I think Georgia gets back on track here. The status for Vols QB Nico Iamalaeva is up in the air, but I'm assuming that he plays. If he doesn't, the Vols have a 5th year senior that could never find the field at UCF behind him, which I'm sure would be a revolting development if the Vols would have to go to him. Even with Nico, this offense has been very pedestrian. They couldn't get anything going against Arkansas, they were shut out deep into the third quarter at home against Florida, and Nico hasn't thrown for 300 yards against any FBS team this year. Georgia's defense has shut down better offenses than this, and at home and at night, I do not anticipate an efficient effort from Nico. The Georgia offense will be challenged, but this Tennessee defense is not without it's chinks in the armor. We still don't know how well they can cover, and they benefitted from some easy scheduling. Georgia has everything riding on this game, much like they did at Texas. If they lose this one, they are likely out. I just don't think Tennessee will be able to withstand that pressure, similarly to how they performed the last 3 times they played Georgia, which were all blowouts for the Dawgs. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson, who the Vols have relied on heavily is also dealing with an injury, so there's no telling how hard he'll be able to go. Georgia's motivation will be too much for the Vols IMO.

It took awhile, but the Bulldogs pulled away late. Tennessee actually moved the ball a LOT better than I thought, but they fizzled, similar to how they have in previous years against Georgia. Dawgs remain alive, and we were a little fortunate.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Probably one, maybe 2 more tomorrow. A little lighter this week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Houston stopped on downs twice(once at the Arizona 1) and 2 turnovers before halftime. C'mon Fritz, let's clean that shit up. If you're going to go for it, at least have a competent play call!

 

[Inspekdah]

Love SMU in this spot. On top of everything noted, Lashlee and SMU were abysmal against this same BC team in the bowl game last season in Fenway.

Ponies like to destroy teams at home. Given where things are, style points matter and they'll be easy to get against a beaten down and overmatched BC.

51 - 20 type game.

Revenge game after whatever that was last year in Fenway (I think?) in the slop wind rain.

 

[twinkie13]

3. Tulane -7 @Navy (BR) : Laying points against a service academy is obviously something I'd rather not make a habit of, but in this case, I think it's prudent. Navy has had a great year, but like Army, much of their success can be playing well against a very suspect schedule. When they've stepped up in class, their defense has looked extremely vulnerable, as both Notre Dame and Memphis were able to move the ball at will. They were able to knock off Memphis because they matched them score for score, but Memphis had little ability to stop Navy at a time when their offense was catching people completely by surprise. Now that they have a lot of things on tape, and especially now that Blake Horvath's ability to throw has been hampered by his bad thumb(which doesn't seem to be getting better), the Navy offense has been relying more on short fields brought about by turnover luck. When they haven't had that(ND and Rice) they've ben borderline non-competitive. Now Tulane comes in, who has proven that they are on par with Notre Dame and Memphis offensively. Darrien Mensah has been very good all year against teams at Navy's level, and he's also been pretty good against K State and Oklahoma, who are Tulane's only losses. The K State loss was a complete crock as the Green Wave was hit with a terrible offensive pass interference call that wiped out a tying TD in the final minute. Mehki Hughes is a dynamic runner who already has over 1200 yards on the ground and I seriously doubt Navy can cover Mario Williams, who's averaging 17 yards per catch. Defensively, Tulane hasn't played an offense like Navy but HC Jon Sumrall has. His time at troy included a couple dominant defensive efforts against Army, and he has proven his worth. I'm still not a huge believer in Brian Newberry, and Tulane needs this game to stay in the at large race for the CFB. Tulane has run just about everyone they've played out of the stadium lately, and I think they'll take care of business here. I wouldn't go much over 7 though.

Shazz Preston is coming on at WR too now and Bauman at TE. I agree. I can’t see Navy keeping up

 

[2daBank]

Good work as usual, Brass

Stanford Steve is hitting 66% on his Gameday picks. Here are the picks he made on ESPN Bets

Kansas/Byu o 56x
San Jose State +14
Georgia/Tenn u 47x
Texas/Arkansas o 57x
Colorado -11

I like ku but just like last week think the over might be better, gotta worry how ku has managed to lose a bunch of games they should have won while byu finds ways to win. Going to byu at night scares me but I’m about as high on a 3-6 ku team ya can be, In all honesty they should really be 7-2 at worst but for some inexplicable reason they have had a awful habit of sitting on leads and blowing them, check out their box scores they have had a 4th qrtr lead in damn near every game! And that was with Daniel’s playing pretty awful early in the year, he been much better of late. This be 1st time I’ll be against byu but I do think that over a no brainer, imo both teams score 30+.

Utah injury list a mile long. They ripe to get blown out.

The Texas over just depends which Green shows up, if he plays one his good games they could force Texas to put up a lot of points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

That Houston/Arizona game was another example of the variance involved when teams go for it on 4th down and can't get out of their own way on the 4th down execution. Houston was 0/4 on 4th down plus they had some turnovers. Those 4 failures on 4th down are turnovers too. Houston moved the ball on Arizona fine and outgained them on a per play basis by a decent amount, but because of the 4th down variance Arizona got short fields and the score ended up being 27-3.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

The opening comments about analytics were excellent. Maybe your best that I've read, due to the astuteness of the points you were making, and also deftly connecting two different subjects- analytics and horrible coaching. The state/ level of coaching these days is noticeably poor to anyone who has been watching football longer than about 15 years. It's clear that most players- on defense, especially- have no real idea what they're supposed to be doing out there. And, the few defenders who might intuitively know what they're supposed to do, have never been told (coached) HOW to do it (i. e. pass defense, tackling). And, adding to the frustration when watching all of this, there is definitely an "emperor's new clothes" aspect to much of the football TV commentary these days (during the actual game broadcasts), as most college commentators treat these coaches as if they are the community's most brilliant and admirable individuals. In many cases, something close to the opposite is true. These coaches are not the valedictorians of any high school class. Great job bringing all of that up with the analytics debate.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @South Carolina -13 v Missouri (BOL) : Missouri was exceedingly lucky to beat a mostly dead Oklahoma team last week, pulling out a win and cover with 2 TDs in about 25 seconds due to Oklahoma incompetence. They feel good about themselves, but they are about to run into what might be the best front 4 in the country with Drew Pine calling the shots. This game reminds me a lot of what the Tigers walked into in College Station a few weeks ago when they were completely non-competitive. Their resume is not impressive, as they could have lost at home to Vandy and BC and should have lost this past week as I mentioned. South Carolina's offense has turned the corner, as they piled up 520 yards two weeks ago against a good A&M defense and then went on the road and got 452 last week in a tough spot against Vandy. South Carolina has lost 5 in a row to Missouri and there's no love lost(as I understand it) between Drinkwitz and Beamer, so I think the Gamecocks will b ready to put a beating on a short handed and somewhat fraudulent Missouri team.

Just for the record, I had heard Cook was out for this game, and never considered that he would play. There's a lesson in there because I'm sure if I look I'll find reports from the week saying he was a possibility to play. His playing wouldn't have ruled out a South Carolina bet, but it would have definitely ruled one out at anything close to this number. A competent QB changes everything. Even after saying that, South Carolina lost momentum early in the second half and didn't have the urgency to regain it until it was too late(for the cover at least...and almost the game)

 

[Br@ssknux]

The opening comments about analytics were excellent. Maybe your best that I've read, due to the astuteness of the points you were making, and also deftly connecting two different subjects- analytics and horrible coaching. The state/ level of coaching these days is noticeably poor to anyone who has been watching football longer than about 15 years. It's clear that most players- on defense, especially- have no real idea what they're supposed to be doing out there. And, the few defenders who might intuitively know what they're supposed to do, have never been told (coached) HOW to do it (i. e. pass defense, tackling). And, adding to the frustration when watching all of this, there is definitely an "emperor's new clothes" aspect to much of the football TV commentary these days (during the actual game broadcasts), as most college commentators treat these coaches as if they are the community's most brilliant and admirable individuals. In many cases, something close to the opposite is true. These coaches are not the valedictorians of any high school class. Great job bringing all of that up with the analytics debate.

Thanks SPRD. We could probably have a 3500 word dissertation back and forth about what you bring up. Containment, pass coverage, etc.

 

[Br@ssknux]

One more night game. Gonna be on Kansas. I'll get that write up done in a bit.

 

[2daBank]

One more night game. Gonna be on Kansas. I'll get that write up done in a bit.

Love it.

 

[Timh]

Brass BOL on the week!

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Kansas +2.5 @BYU (BR) : I've been a believer in BYU and it's given me a bunch of winners, but I didn't like them last week and I don't like them again this week. Defensively, BYU has been very solid, especially against the pass, but they have been run on consistently (81st) and now they face what might be the hottest offense in the country in Kansas, who at 3-6 have been laughably unlucky. In fact, you can make the case that this is a matchup of the most unlucky team in the country with one of the luckiest. Now it's possible that the breaks continue, but when you match these two teams up, I like the matchup for Kansas. They will be able to run on BYU, that is almost certain, and I think Daniels will be able to beat them through the air as well, even though BYU has been outstanding in their pass defense. A look at their schedule, however, shows that the competition has been much weaker than what Kansas will throw at them and Jalon Daniels has definitely gotten a handle on the scheme. BYU played Utah with a backup, UCF with a strictly running QB, Wyoming and SMU long before they settled on their current QBs, and Oklahoma State with Garret Rangel, who by the way torched them with his ability to be a dual threat. Daniels fits that bill, so I think this will be the stiffest challenge they have faced on that side of the ball. BYU also has wins in games they got avalanches of turnovers(K State). They'll probably need a bunch of bounces to come out of this one, and I think this might be the week that BYU inevitably drops one.

Strange game here. Kansas only ran 52 plays the whole game, mostly due to BYU taking up the whole 3rd quarter with a 19 play drive or whatever it was. Lucky break on the pooch punt. You could say BYU was due, huh? Lots of luck changed course for both teams, but KU might have won that game anyway. Lost in all the hype about BYU however if that they've had a really good defense all year and they proved it again in this game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass BOL on the week!

Thanks Timmy!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Others:

I was close to jumping on Utah at 14, but got scared off by the injury concerns, though it looks like some of these guys are gonna play. I don't think motivation is a factor for Whittingham here as Colorado in a national TV spot is always big. Their defense is great against the pass and they are elite on 3rd down. You might catch Colorado a bot full of themselves in this one. I passed ultimately, though.

I liked Arkansas too. What has Texas done. I couldn't pull the trigger because my numbers had it as a blowout, but the numbers are certainly skewed by Texas's schedule. What's their best win? Michigan? Vandy? The only team they played with a pulse is Georgia, and despite their flaws Georgia pounded them in Austin. Arkansas is a wild card but they look healthier. They beat Tennessee and should have beaten A&M, two teams significantly better than anyone Texas has beaten. Too many backbreaking turnovers for Taylen Green for me to back the Hogs though.

Thought about Cincy coming off that loss, but I wanted a little more than 7. Iowa State looks like a team in duress, and Cincy will run on them. Cincy will be giving up yards themselves though. & should have been enough, but I just didn't have my heart in it.

Also like Air Force because of the Oregon State staff's complete inability to scheme a run defense, but AF is likely to give up rushing yards by the bushelful too. Two teams going in different directions(AF looks like they found the right QB in Hayes), but was hoping for a little more than 3 and even under 3 in some spots.

La Mo is a another one I considered, because Auburn could definitely lose outright to them, but the Warhawks are leaking oil a bit and I heard they had some injury concerns. Auburn could totally be in a dogfight with them though.

Hop everyone has a great week.

 

[2daBank]

11. Kansas +2.5 @BYU (BR) : I've been a believer in BYU and it's given me a bunch of winners, but I didn't like them last week and I don't like them again this week. Defensively, BYU has been very solid, especially against the pass, but they have been run on consistently (81st) and now they face what might be the hottest offense in the country in Kansas, who at 3-6 have been laughably unlucky. In fact, you can make the case that this is a matchup of the most unlucky team in the country with one of the luckiest. Now it's possible that the breaks continue, but when you match these two teams up, I like the matchup for Kansas. They will be able to run on BYU, that is almost certain, and I think Daniels will be able to beat them through the air as well, even though BYU has been outstanding in their pass defense. A look at their schedule, however, shows that the competition has been much weaker than what Kansas will throw at them and Jalon Daniels has definitely gotten a handle on the scheme. BYU played Utah with a backup, UCF with a strictly running QB, Wyoming and SMU long before they settled on their current QBs, and Oklahoma State with Garret Rangel, who by the way torched them with his ability to be a dual threat. Daniels fits that bill, so I think this will be the stiffest challenge they have faced on that side of the ball. BYU also has wins in games they got avalanches of turnovers(K State). They'll probably need a bunch of bounces to come out of this one, and I think this might be the week that BYU inevitably drops one.

I been a byu buyer all year so this a little tough as I havd played them a bunch of times Witt similar lines and they got it done, that said I been telling ppl the last few weeks ku could easily be 7-2 or better, I can’t recall a game they didn’t have a 4th qrtr lead. I think Leipold a damn good offensive mind but for some reason once they have gotten leads in the 4th they have basically stopped playing offense and let teams come back on them. Even when Daniels was playing poorly they were still getting leads on teams. He has been looking much more like the guy we expected to see coming into the year of late. I just don’t think byu can stop this offense, they do so many things well, Neal a beast and Daniels always a threat w his legs. BYU pass d been way better than previous years but if they have to commit extra man to stop the run im not convinced they can cover ky WRs.

I have 2 concerns, 1 is obvious, while ku finds ways to pull defeat from the hands of victory byu finds ways to win games, that concerning. #2 is a bit more conspiracy driven, do we have to worry byu gets every call seeing how the big12 is starring at possibly only getting 1 team info the playoff? Money rules the ncaa world these days, I assume the more teams a conf gets into the playoffs the better it is for everyone. For them to even have a chance to gst 2 teams in I assume they need byu to stay undefeated then lose the big12 champ game. I don’t like when I let this line of thinking get in my way but sometimes I can’t help it. Lol.

I’ll say this which was the same thing I said when I liked ku last week but opted for the over. I think if you are concerned with anything above this game is going over, I see little chance this game isn’t played into the 60s.

Gl as always bro, love reading your takes on games,

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ended up with a 5-6 week. Friday's 0-2 start made it tough to squeak out a positive week. The SJSU late debacle and making some foolish plays (like always) sealed it. Got a couple fortunate ones though.

 

[ksimpsc]

10. @South Carolina -13 v Missouri (BOL) : Missouri was exceedingly lucky to beat a mostly dead Oklahoma team last week, pulling out a win and cover with 2 TDs in about 25 seconds due to Oklahoma incompetence. They feel good about themselves, but they are about to run into what might be the best front 4 in the country with Drew Pine calling the shots. This game reminds me a lot of what the Tigers walked into in College Station a few weeks ago when they were completely non-competitive. Their resume is not impressive, as they could have lost at home to Vandy and BC and should have lost this past week as I mentioned. South Carolina's offense has turned the corner, as they piled up 520 yards two weeks ago against a good A&M defense and then went on the road and got 452 last week in a tough spot against Vandy. South Carolina has lost 5 in a row to Missouri and there's no love lost(as I understand it) between Drinkwitz and Beamer, so I think the Gamecocks will b ready to put a beating on a short handed and somewhat fraudulent Missouri team.

Just for the record, I had heard Cook was out for this game, and never considered that he would play. There's a lesson in there because I'm sure if I look I'll find reports from the week saying he was a possibility to play. His playing wouldn't have ruled out a South Carolina bet, but it would have definitely ruled one out at anything close to this number. A competent QB changes everything. Even after saying that, South Carolina lost momentum early in the second half and didn't have the urgency to regain it until it was too late(for the cover at least...and almost the game)

yea tough stuff with Cook. They listed him doubtful all week and then upgraded him on gameday and the number dropped back down to 10ish when he was confirmed playing. Cook played amazing that game. The cover for the gamecocks was still a possibility until that dreadful third quarter of run run pass punt for three series and Mizzou tightened up the score. We barely got to Cook until near the end of the game and their run scheme was giving fits in the middle all game long. Their first down runs were gashing.

Good write ups as always! BOL to finish the season

 

[bones]

Ended up with a 5-6 week. Friday's 0-2 start made it tough to squeak out a positive week. The SJSU late debacle and making some foolish plays (like always) sealed it. Got a couple fortunate ones though.

That was one for the bad beats of all time. SJSU was my favorite wager of the week. I had +14.5. Positive result for over 58 minutes and SJSU on Boise 30 at the end seeking a meaningless score and then.... For some reason I had a thought the pick 6 might happen but told myself I was being too negative.

Thanks for your threa each week. It is always a highlight

 

[2daBank]

That was one for the bad beats of all time. SJSU was my favorite wager of the week. I had +14.5. Positive result for over 58 minutes and SJSU on Boise 30 at the end seeking a meaningless score and then.... For some reason I had a thought the pick 6 might happen but told myself I was being too negative.

Thanks for your threa each week. It is always a highlight

So glad I played Jeanty under rushing prop instead of sjst, crazy they didn’t cover that game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

That was one for the bad beats of all time. SJSU was my favorite wager of the week. I had +14.5. Positive result for over 58 minutes and SJSU on Boise 30 at the end seeking a meaningless score and then.... For some reason I had a thought the pick 6 might happen but told myself I was being too negative.

Thanks for your threa each week. It is always a highlight

And then SJSU gets stopped 3 times at the goal line as time expires! It was truly an all timer!

 

[Timh]

And then SJSU gets stopped 3 times at the goal line as time expires! It was truly an all timer!

Just fucking brutal, SVP had it on bad beats and I didn't realize they had gotten the ball again and couldn't score on the goal line.

 

[bones]

And then SJSU gets stopped 3 times at the goal line as time expires! It was truly an all timer!

Just fucking brutal, SVP had it on bad beats and I didn't realize they had gotten the ball again and couldn't score on the goal line.

I missed that too...after the pick 6 I turned TV off and went to bed