Week 12 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a .500 week last week, 7-7. (80-78 for the year) Too bad, because we started out 6-1 and had some chances in the afternoon session, but Malik Cunningham got hurt, North Texas fell apart and Iowa State became addicted to turnovers and dropped wide open bombs, so the momentum has halted, and then only Florida State came through in the night session and we were in mediocreville. Yearly total goes to 80-78. Only a couple more weeks left, so we'll see what happens.

Navy +15 WIN
TCU ML WIN
Vandy +14 WIN
Northwestern +18 WIN
Washington State -4 WIN
BC +20.5 LOSS --That escalated quickly
Penn State -19 WIN
Georgia -22.5 LOSS---I can't cap Georgia to save my life. Need to take a hiatus from them until the playoff.
Temple +17 LOSS--Geez Owls, all we needed was 6 points. Come on!
Michigan State -10.5 LOSS---Dear Mel, Eh, forget it. I'm sure you feel bad enough.
Arkansas +2 WIN
Syracuse +10 PUSH
UCLA +1.5 LOSS. DTR the latest to be mesmerized by the snake charming turnover hypnotists known as the USC D.


7-5-1

1. Navy +15 @UCF: This will be a 3rd week in a row that I've faded UCF. I've liked the spot against them in all three of those, but they find themselves in another tough spot this week after a very impressive effort against a Tulane team that almost always covers at home. Now they welcome in a Navy team that has done nothing but cover spreads lately, and as service academies almost always do, they've covered 6 of their last 7 as a dog, and who knows how many in a row as a double digit dog. Much like their game with Notre Dame last week, they face a team that wants to run, and stopping the run in what Navy does extremely well, and has done all year. Last week they held Notre Dame to 66 yards rushing on 34 carries, a week after holding Cincinnati to 55 yards rushing on 20 carries. If UCF wants, they will be able to move it on the Midshipmen through the air, but Navy has been good in the red zone, ranking 18th in red zone TD percentage. That along with a methodical approach on offense lends well to covering double digits spreads. It's also a tough spot for UCF coming off that Tulane win that all but clinched a spot in the American title game for them. The game is also at noon, so the bounce house probably won't be bouncing quite as much as usual. I'll stay on the Middies here.
 
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2. TCU ML (-128) @ Baylor: TCU cashed quite a few tickets for me early in the season, but I haven't backed them in awhile because my major issue with them was that they didn't seem to me to be a team that will go undefeated. I mean, it's Sonny Dykes's first year...you don't just walk into a new building with what was a middling team last year and go undefeated. I liked them a lot last week at Texas but laid off them because a lot of handicappers I like were in the tank for Texas. When I handicap this one, it looks similar to how Kansas State looked last week against Baylor...I can't really find any edges for Baylor this week either. The same people who were on Texas last week are on Baylor this week, and the reasoning is all subjective, i.e. it's a bad spot for TCU, Dave Aranda is great against highly ranked teams, Aranda leads bounce backs after a loss, etc. I agree with all that because I have a huge amount of respect for Aranda, but I can't get past what looks to me to be a case of one team being pretty clearly better than the other. Max Duggan is leaps and bounds better than Blake Shapen, TCU should be able to run effectively on Baylor and I don't know how the Bears are going to cover Quinten Johnston. Duggan has a 25/2 ratio and Baylor does not generate any semblance of a pass rush, so Duggan will be comfortable back there. We should also mention that although TCU has been lucky on defense with all the backup QBs they've faced, lookie here! Joe Gillespie has the frogs ranked 40th in yards per play against and 35 on 3rd down. Their improvement culminated in an absolute domination(199 yards) of a Texas team that had previously had little trouble moving the ball against anyone. It might be true that the Frogs are due for a loss, but if that's the only justification for Baylor and everything else that I pay attention to screams TCU, I've got to ride with the Frogs.
 
3. @Vanderbilt +14 v Florida: I typically prefer to play Vandy when they're on the road, but in this case, I'll jump aboard because it's a chance to fade Florida as a road favorite, something they have failed spectacularly at over the past few years. This is only their third road game of the year and they haven't been a road favorite yet, but over the past two years they've failed to cover 8 straight, and in the last 4, they lost outright as 8, 20, 12 and 7 point favorites. Vandy is bad on defense, but Florida gives them a run for their money in that department as they are ranked 100th or worse in every conceivable defensive category. Other than Florida's rush offense, these two teams are very similar in their performances just about everywhere else, so two touchdowns is definitely a solid value here. When you add in the fact that nobody should trust Florida in the road dog role, I'm grabbing the points with the "Dores.
 
4. Northwestern +18 @Purdue: I got this one at 18 earlier today but I would still play it as long as I got 17.5. You could actually get this at closer to 20 early in the week, but sharp money knocked it down to where it eventually got to currently. This is a play against Purdue in a flat spot, as the Boilers have been terrible in the favorite role, especially at home. They thrive in the role they found themselves last week, getting points on the road against another team who tends to spit the bit when favored. Purdue is only 5-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2018 and this is actually the kind of matchup that Northwestern could succeed in. If you want to beat Purdue you have to be competitive on defense against the pass, and Northwestern has been pretty good there, ranking 53rd in yards per pass attempt and playing extremely well in wintry Midwest weather a couple weeks ago against Ohio State, holding CJ Stroud to less than 100 passing yards(100) in that game. They also get a bit of a breather on offense as Purdue represents a drop in class on defense compared to the likes of Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota, the Cats last 3 opponents. This is especially true in the pass game, as the Boilers rank only 112th against the pass. This looks like another example of a sleepy spot in dreary cold weather. The idea of Northwestern hanging around here is very recognizable. If the Boilers show up and take the Cats behind the woodshed, more power to them, but they haven't shown any kind of consistent ability to do that.
 
5. Washington State -4 @Arizona: Arizona drives me crazy because I've backed them several times this year because I knew how capable they were on offense. When I've been on them they've failed against much worse teams than UCLA, but when I finally keep my mouth shut about them, they rise up and play their best game of the year, knocking off the Bruins. Now they come home to follow that up against a much less exciting but very capable and resourceful Washington State team. Nobody knows Wildcats QB Jaden DeLaura better than his former coach Jake Dickert, and I see a pretty good edge in spot for the Cougars here as they Wildcats are coming off that wonderful upset victory last week in Pasadena. Also, the Washington State defense is disciplined enough to hang in and have success against this AZ offense, and Cam Ward and the Cougar offense should have no issue moving the ball on 123rd ranked defense in yards per play. Arizona provides no pressure on the QB, so Ward will not be bothered back there, and as I mentioned, I think the Cougar defense will prove to be more than capable of frustrating the Wildcat offense here. I think Arizona will be good under Fisch, but they are still early enough in their progression that I would be surprised if they strung two effective performances together.
 
6. Boston College +20.5 @Notre Dame: We've lost our ability to buy this up to 21, but ND has shown zero ability to cover spreads like this. I don't feel like I need to belabor the point. We know who they've lost to this year, and BC is at least on par with those teams and probably better. We also know that ND is 1-5 as a favorite (0-4 as a home favorite)and undefeated as an underdog away from home. I'd also say that BC has experienced some sort of renaissance under the electrifying QB play of Emmett Moorhead( not really). In all fairness to Moorehead, however, the Eagles have looked very good in recent weeks, culminating in an outright upset victory at NC State in which Moorehead threw for 300+ for the second week in a row, this time aganst a very competent defense. If BC can bear down against the ND rush offense, they will hang in this game because I think they'll be able to score a couple TDs at least. ND has USC on deck for a huge one, so they'll probably be content with a win, regardless of how impressive it looks.
 
7. Penn State -19 @Rutgers: Rutgers handed us a victory late last week and did what they always do: cover Big Ten spreads as a road dog. This week, they will follow that up with another version of what they always do: fail to cover in games as a HOME DOG. Penn State still is sniffing around for a trip to a New Years 6 bowl, so they'll be motivated, and I don't see how Rutgers is going to score on this defense, and Penn State is looking as good as they've looked in awhile, especially if they hang with Drew Allar at QB. This one shapes up as one that might be close early, but the Nittanies run away with it late, much how Michigan did a couple weeks ago.
 
8. Georgia -22.5 @Kentucky: I really hate laying this many points, especially on the road, but I just can't see how Kentucky stays in this game. Their offensive line is absolutely atrocious and it's been that way all year. Will Levis was running for his life last week against vandy's defense, so he'll definitely be in big trouble this week. They can't run, even with an elite running back like Chris Rodriguez, and even their defense is showing holes now. We saw what happened when they lined up against an elite offense in Tennessee, now they'll see another one against Georgia. It's hard to call their defense a strength, which we've always been able to do in recent years. Kentucky is 77th against the run and and cannot pressure the quarterback, which will make things easy on Stetson Bennett. Georgia is a cash register on the road under Smart(12-4 ATS on the road since 2019) so I'm going to hitch my wagon to the Dawgs this week.
 
9. @Temple +17 v Cincinnati: In their last 4 wins against middling competition, Cincinnati has won their games by 2, 10, 2, 4 and 10 points with a loss in there at UCF. Now they go on the road for a ho hum game at an empty NFL stadium against Temple team that appears to be playing with a renewed amount of excitement and competence. The Owls gave Houston all kinds of trouble last week as a 20 point road dog after a couple of nice wins prior to that. Temple has quietly showed a lot of improvement defensively, especially against the pass and on 3rd down. They also have been consistently tough on opposing QBs as their DL has been been able to get pressure all year, coming in at 13th in sack rate. Also, Kurt Warner's kid EJ has been going crazy the past couple of weeks and he piled up almost 500 passing yards last week in the shootout against Houston. We have a QB in Ben Bryant who has struggled to execute this year, and the Bearcats are coming off a game in which they were outgained 454-310 by East Carolina in a game they should have probably lost. Cincy hasn't covered in similar roles to this all year, I'm going to roll with the Owls and the points here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
It was a .500 week last week, 7-7. Too bad, because we started out 6-1 and had some chances in the afternoon session, but Malik Cunningham got hurt, North Texas fell apart and Iowa State became addicted to turnovers and dropped wide open bombs, so the momentum has halted, and then only Florida State came through in the night session and we were in mediocreville. Yearly total goes to 80-78. Only a couple more weeks left, so we'll see what happens.

1. Navy +15 @UCF: This will be a 3rd week in a row that I've faded UCF. I've liked the spot against them in all three of those, but they find themselves in another tough spot this week after a very impressive effort against a Tulane team that almost always covers at home. Now they welcome in a Navy team that has done nothing but cover spreads lately, and as service academies almost always do, they've covered 6 of their last 7 as a dog, and who knows how many in a row as a double digit dog. Much like their game with Notre Dame last week, they face a team that wants to run, and stopping the run in what Navy does extremely well, and has done all year. Last week they held Notre Dame to 66 yards rushing on 34 carries, a week after holding Cincinnati to 55 yards rushing on 20 carries. If UCF wants, they will be able to move it on the Midshipmen through the air, but Navy has been good in the red zone, ranking 18th in red zone TD percentage. That along with a methodical approach on offense lends well to covering double digits spreads. It's also a tough spot for UCF coming off that Tulane win that all but clinched a spot in the American title game for them. The game is also at noon, so the bounce house probably won't be bouncing quite as much as usual. I'll stay on the Middies here.
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I’m actually gonna grab some ML. Great stuff this year. I hope you roll through the bowls brother!
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m actually gonna grab some ML. Great stuff this year. I hope you roll through the bowls brother!
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Thanks Twink. Maybe we'll get lucky this year and we won't have to figure out who's backup QBs and depth is the best because guys are sitting out because they might have a shot as an undrafted FA.
 
10. @Michigan State -10.5 v Indiana: Sorry for the out of order play here, this one is at noon eastern. This is more of a play against Indiana at this point in the season than anything else. The Hoosiers have seen everything just fall apart as most of their good players are either out for the year or perpetually injured and it appears that they are growing tired of the borderline maniacal "I love you all more than life itself" approach of wacko coach Tom Allen. They'll be starting their third different QB this week, Dexter Williams, who so far this year has completed 10 out of 30 passes for 4.9 yards per attempt. Passing the ball is the main conduit to success against the MSU defense, as the Spartans can't stop a nosebleed in the passing game, but they are ok against the run and offensively Payton Thorne and Jayden Reed are one of the most competent combos in the Big Ten. MSU has gained some momentum with a couple of wins, in a row, so they are back in a good head space after suspending the culprits of the Michigan fiasco, and they won't need those guys against this Hoosier offense anyway. Indiana is 5-17 ATS overall since the beginning of last year, and I don't see any reason why they would get up off the mat here. It's a bit of a square play, but the Hoosiers are definitely worth fading, and the Michigan State incompetence as a home favorite has subsided a bit since Tucker showed up. (3-3-2).
 
11. @Arkansas +2 v Ole Miss: This is another game in which the spot seems like the most impactful part of the game. Ole Miss is coming off a tough loss to Alabama at home before which they still had the belief that this could be a special season. Lane Kiffin looked completely dejected after that game, and I think that might be the case for his players too. Since that went awry, they are eliminated in the SEC West and now have to travel to Fayetteville where the game time temperature is going to be in the 20's at kickoff. KJ Jefferson will be back for this one, and the Hogs really showed something last week in his absence, especially defensively. Their season long numbers are still dogshit, but they competed extremely well especially against the LSU run game last week and that has continued a trend in that direction. Ole Miss will need to run, and if they can't it leaves California kid Jaxson Dart as their hope to move the ball, and Kiffin hasn't really trusted him all year. Ole Miss's defense started out very well, but with the increase in competition, they are now in the middle of the pack defensively in most categories and I think the Hogs will keep it simple and run it down their throats. I'll take the motivated home team here.
 
12. Syracuse +10 @Wake: This strikes me as a game that Syracuse can sneak up and take the Deacons to the wire here. Garrett Schrader has been banged up, but he reports he's as healthy as he's been this year coming into this game, and I think we are getting a bit of a premium with the Orange after they fell in line like the rest of the ACC lately and took their beating from Florida State last week. Neither of these teams can run it well, although Sean Tucker from Syracuse is certainly capable. The orange pass defense has been very good this year, ranking 15th in yards per attempt against and they have the ability to make life tough for Sam Hartman as they've done a good job creating pressure while Wake is 96th in sack rate. I think Schrader and Oronde Gadsden should have a good night against the Wake pass defense, who ranks 94th against the pass and 103rd on 3rd down. Robert Anae has proven himself to be a solid offensive mind, so I think he'll be able to work some things with a bit of class relief defensively. Overall these teams match up very closely on paper, so double digits seems like a lot. Wake is coming off a tough loss to UNC last week, and the Orange seem like a pretty underwhelming opponent.
 
13. @UCLA +1.5 v USC: This game really isn't much different than the previous two times Chip Kelly and the Bruins have been short dogs at home against good offense/bad defense teams. The past two times, Washington and Utah couldn't stop the UCLA attack and I think the same thing will happen to USC here, with the Pac 12 predictably seeing their last chance for the playoff drift softly into the night mist. USC will have no shot to stop the rampaging Zach Charbonnet, who hasn't really been stopped by anyone when healthy. The spot is perfect for UCLA because they are always motivated to play USC, and they are coming off the inexcusable loss as a 20+ point favorite against Arizona last week. Dorian Thompson Robinson shot his mouth off earlier this week saying that the Bruins will drop 60 on the Trojans just like they did last year, and although you hate to give the opponent bulletin board material, I like the matter of fact confidence, and if you saw the game last year, you can understand why he thinks that because USC was absolutely helpless in that game. Advanced metrics have USC as among the very bottom rush defenses in the country, and UCLA is #1 in yards per carry. UCLA will give up their share of points, but they did against Washington and Utah as well. I think the Bruins have the ability to run away and hide, and we'll see evidence of the Chip Kelly "why aren't there any defenders on that side of the field?" offense.
 
Probably it for now.

Some near misses:

WKU
UAB
New Mexico State(just can't pull the trigger and hold my nose there),
Wyoming,
Stanford(ditto the hold the nose thing)
Kansas (the possibility of the Jayhawks being stuck with the third stringer kept me off that one despite the Jayhawks success against Texas)
Arizona State: Too much respect to fade Jonathan Smith, though the Beavs have been terrible as a road favorite.
Rice: Would rather not fade Frank Harris, but Rice matches up pretty well against them
Illinois: Would never write them up, but they're back in their comfort zone. Extremely banged up though, so I could see a Michigan cover but this is too many points here all things being equal.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Kansas (the possibility of the Jayhawks being stuck with the third stringer kept me off that one despite the Jayhawks success against Texas)
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Can you enlighten? Was thinking that Daniels would be back this week, but if not, did Bean get hurt last game?
 
s--k said:
Can you enlighten? Was thinking that Daniels would be back this week, but if not, did Bean get hurt last game?
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He did, late in the Texas Tech game. Did not really practice this week. Seemed like the 3rd stringer was determined to be the alternative if Daniels has issues.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Michigan State -10.5 v Indiana: Sorry for the out of order play here, this one is at noon eastern. This is more of a play against Indiana at this point in the season than anything else. The Hoosiers have seen everything just fall apart as most of their good players are either out for the year or perpetually injured and it appears that they are growing tired of the borderline maniacal "I love you all more than life itself" approach of wacko coach Tom Allen. They'll be starting their third different QB this week, Dexter Williams, who so far this year has completed 10 out of 30 passes for 4.9 yards per attempt. Passing the ball is the main conduit to success against the MSU defense, as the Spartans can't stop a nosebleed in the passing game, but they are ok against the run and offensively Payton Thorne and Jayden Reed are one of the most competent combos in the Big Ten. MSU has gained some momentum with a couple of wins, in a row, so they are back in a good head space after suspending the culprits of the Michigan fiasco, and they won't need those guys against this Hoosier offense anyway. Indiana is 5-17 ATS overall since the beginning of last year, and I don't see any reason why they would get up off the mat here. It's a bit of a square play, but the Hoosiers are definitely worth fading, and the Michigan State incompetence as a home favorite has subsided a bit since Tucker showed up. (3-3-2).
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Love the Tom Allen profile, ha!
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. TCU ML (-128) @ Baylor: TCU cashed quite a few tickets for me early in the season, but I haven't backed them in awhile because my major issue with them was that they didn't seem to me to be a team that will go undefeated. I mean, it's Sonny Dykes's first year...you don't just walk into a new building with what was a middling team last year and go undefeated. I liked them a lot last week at Texas but laid off them because a lot of handicappers I like were in the tank for Texas. When I handicap this one, it looks similar to how Kansas State looked last week against Baylor...I can't really find any edges for Baylor this week either. The same people who were on Texas last week are on Baylor this week, and the reasoning is all subjective, i.e. it's a bad spot for TCU, Dave Aranda is great against highly ranked teams, Aranda leads bounce backs after a loss, etc. I agree with all that because I have a huge amount of respect for Aranda, but I can't get past what looks to me to be a case of one team being pretty clearly better than the other. Max Duggan is leaps and bounds better than Blake Shapen, TCU should be able to run effectively on Baylor and I don't know how the Bears are going to cover Quinten Johnston. Duggan has a 25/2 ratio and Baylor does not generate any semblance of a pass rush, so Duggan will be comfortable back there. We should also mention that although TCU has been lucky on defense with all the backup QBs they've faced, lookie here! Joe Gillespie has the frogs ranked 40th in yards per play against and 35 on 3rd down. Their improvement culminated in an absolute domination(199 yards) of a Texas team that had previously had little trouble moving the ball against anyone. It might be true that the Frogs are due for a loss, but if that's the only justification for Baylor and everything else that I pay attention to screams TCU, I've got to ride with the Frogs.
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Moneyline! Congrats!!!!
 
That's a good week Brass. Funny thing though, even if you did go ofor, (god forbid), it wouldn't be on account a the write ups. Great stuff.
 
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