Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Another bad week last week, 5-7-1. I thought I had found some value in some of the group of 5 games, but that turned out to be a laughable premise as the likes of UTEP, Georgia Southern and FIU all shit the bed hardcore for me. All you can do is move forward, right? Total record since posting this year is now 16-19-1. It's been a long time, I think 10 years plus since I've had a sub .500 season, but since I got a late start, I'm going to need to have some big weeks to avoid it this year.
Friday: 1. Purdue -2 @ Minnesota: Although Jeff Brohm has been money on the road, it's mostly as an underdog, as Purdue seldom is in the role of a road favorite. Also a little concerning is that Purdue has never won at TCF Bank Stadium (0-5). A play on the Boilers makes some sense here though, as Minnesota is an absolute shell of what they were last year, and previous years for that matter. This is most notably on the defensive side, as they have just been steamrolled by opposing run games, but their passing game with Tanner Morgan has been a significant departure from last year as well, when it was one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. This year, although Tanner Morgan has had some success, they are only 63rd in yards per attempt, and Morgan has a weak 4/4 TD/INT ratio. After stumbling around against Illinois a couple weeks ago, the Purdue defense got back on track somewhat against Northwestern last week, limiting the Cats to less than 300 total yards. They've been pretty stout against the run, and have held their own against the pass so far. As for Purdue's offense, the relevant question for them is this: Can you line up and hand it to your running back and gain yards? If so, you'll be fine against this Gopher defense, who can't stop opposing running back if their lives depended on it. Opposing RBs have averaged better than 7 yards per carry in every game this year, capped off by Iowa's Sargeant/Goodson due who went for 231 yards on 29 carries. Purdue has unimpressive stats in the run game, but a close look at the box scores will tell you than Zander Horvath has actually been pretty solid running the ball this year with 2 100 yard efforts including a 21-124 performance against an excellent run D in Iowa. If Jeff Brohm hands it to him 25 times, he'll likely break his career high this week. Also keep in mind that even though I don't bring up Minny's pass defense because their run D is so terrible, you should know that Aiden O'Connell is likely to have a great game against what amounts to the 105th ranked pass defense in the country. *****This line just moved to +1 for Purdue, so I added some additional units on it. The likely reason is that QB Aiden O'Connell is a game time decision, but backup Jack Plummer doesn't amount to much of a drop off here as he started their game against Minny last year and played well enough to score 31 points. Plummer is competent. If this goes off with Purdue as a dog, this becomes an even better play IMO, as Brohm is 7-1 in that role.
2. Indiana +20.5 @Ohio State: Obviously, the fact that every Tom Dick and Harry in the college football media is beating Tom Allen's door down in order to fellate him and his Hoosiers concerns me, but if I'm going to be at all loyal to my handicapping principles, I have to play Indiana in this spot. I know Ohio State is likely to be one of the best teams in the country this year, but especially on defense, they haven't played like it. Ohio State (in a small sample size, but not against what we would call scintillating competition) ranks 50th against the run and 42nd against the pass, a far cry from the dominant squad they sported last year. They also aren't really running the ball effectively, and Indiana has been strong against the run, which could make OSU a bit one dimensional. Offensively, Indiana has not been good on a per play basis, but they have 4 playmakers who have been around and are capable of making winning plays. I don't think Indiana has much of a chance at the outright, but I can certainly see them playing well and grabbing the cash at 20.5. The Hoosiers have covered 5 straight in Columbus, and although they probably have the Buckeyes attention more than they usually do, those covers weren't much of a sweat.
Friday: 1. Purdue -2 @ Minnesota: Although Jeff Brohm has been money on the road, it's mostly as an underdog, as Purdue seldom is in the role of a road favorite. Also a little concerning is that Purdue has never won at TCF Bank Stadium (0-5). A play on the Boilers makes some sense here though, as Minnesota is an absolute shell of what they were last year, and previous years for that matter. This is most notably on the defensive side, as they have just been steamrolled by opposing run games, but their passing game with Tanner Morgan has been a significant departure from last year as well, when it was one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. This year, although Tanner Morgan has had some success, they are only 63rd in yards per attempt, and Morgan has a weak 4/4 TD/INT ratio. After stumbling around against Illinois a couple weeks ago, the Purdue defense got back on track somewhat against Northwestern last week, limiting the Cats to less than 300 total yards. They've been pretty stout against the run, and have held their own against the pass so far. As for Purdue's offense, the relevant question for them is this: Can you line up and hand it to your running back and gain yards? If so, you'll be fine against this Gopher defense, who can't stop opposing running back if their lives depended on it. Opposing RBs have averaged better than 7 yards per carry in every game this year, capped off by Iowa's Sargeant/Goodson due who went for 231 yards on 29 carries. Purdue has unimpressive stats in the run game, but a close look at the box scores will tell you than Zander Horvath has actually been pretty solid running the ball this year with 2 100 yard efforts including a 21-124 performance against an excellent run D in Iowa. If Jeff Brohm hands it to him 25 times, he'll likely break his career high this week. Also keep in mind that even though I don't bring up Minny's pass defense because their run D is so terrible, you should know that Aiden O'Connell is likely to have a great game against what amounts to the 105th ranked pass defense in the country. *****This line just moved to +1 for Purdue, so I added some additional units on it. The likely reason is that QB Aiden O'Connell is a game time decision, but backup Jack Plummer doesn't amount to much of a drop off here as he started their game against Minny last year and played well enough to score 31 points. Plummer is competent. If this goes off with Purdue as a dog, this becomes an even better play IMO, as Brohm is 7-1 in that role.
2. Indiana +20.5 @Ohio State: Obviously, the fact that every Tom Dick and Harry in the college football media is beating Tom Allen's door down in order to fellate him and his Hoosiers concerns me, but if I'm going to be at all loyal to my handicapping principles, I have to play Indiana in this spot. I know Ohio State is likely to be one of the best teams in the country this year, but especially on defense, they haven't played like it. Ohio State (in a small sample size, but not against what we would call scintillating competition) ranks 50th against the run and 42nd against the pass, a far cry from the dominant squad they sported last year. They also aren't really running the ball effectively, and Indiana has been strong against the run, which could make OSU a bit one dimensional. Offensively, Indiana has not been good on a per play basis, but they have 4 playmakers who have been around and are capable of making winning plays. I don't think Indiana has much of a chance at the outright, but I can certainly see them playing well and grabbing the cash at 20.5. The Hoosiers have covered 5 straight in Columbus, and although they probably have the Buckeyes attention more than they usually do, those covers weren't much of a sweat.
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