Hey, these threads are fun. You guys should do them every week or something.
Just a few thoughts from me.
I’m sure everybody has said this a thousand times by now, but there’s really very little in terms of HFA this year. Most people I know are discounting that down to about -1. Where I do think that will start coming into play will be down the stretch as the weather changes and you get situations like you had with Arizona going to NE this weekend/teams from a fast track going outside into the cold.
In a related story, the more things change the more things stay the same for a Joe. Last week I mentioned something else people know, that as the weather changes, look for unders to start coming in again, especially when you go outdoors. Sure enough, what did I do, played multiple overs this weekend including in Buffalo. Granted, I still think those plays weren’t terrible, and I’d bet that Raiders/Atlanta over again, and probably the one in TB as well, but that doesn’t make me any money now does it. Shut up, Hunt, nobody asked you.
But back to the lack of a HFA thing for a second. That this season has taken away one advantage has really accentuated a couple of other things. Since you're basically getting every game on a neutral field, specific matchups and related injuries become incredibly important imo.
Look at Tennessee. Two weeks ago, Tennessee gets Baltimore without two guys on their DL (Campbell and someone else whose name I forget). Sure enough, the Ravens' run D tires out and eventually Derek Henry runs all over them. Next up, Tenny goes to Indy who just happens to be missing DeForest Buckner. Oh, and their RB. Just a matchup nightmare. And we know what happens next. And these were road games.
Typically you’d see teams going on the road, especially late in the season, and having issues with the snap count, noise, etc. But now that’s not a thing so you can pretty much execute your entire playbook. Which is huge especially when and where the coaching disparity is significant.
But that was last week, what happens next for Indy? Well, during that loss, the Colts also lost their starting LT to an MCL sprain. Does Philip Rivers strike you as a guy who is going to overcome something like that by scrambling? Do they play a team with a strong pass rush coming up. Maybe a team with JJ Watt on it? Just wondering.
In a related story, I don’t know if Covid counts as an injury, but it definitely keeps you out of the lineup and it absolutely donkey-dicked Denver into next season. Anybody who knows me knows I’m not the Bronco fan in my family (that’s JPSrEsq, for those playing at home), but what the NFL did to the Broncos just reminds you how much the NFL doesn’t give two shits about anything but money. They’ve literally moved the Ravens game three times now—including this last time to Wednesday so the Ravens could “get a chance to practice.”
Meanwhile, the Broncos had to start a guy at QB against an 8-2 Saints team who had zero practice time at QB. Was this dangerous and irresponsible? Fuck yeah. Did the NFL care? HAHAHAHAHA. They knew nobody was gonna watch that game, they didn’t care if the Saints won by 50 or who got hurt (looking at you, Philip Lindsey), because it keeps the train running and if you don’t like it fuck you.
BTW, were I Philip Lindsey I’d be asking the NFLPA to file some sort of grievance if he misses any time. Because this is that guy’s contract year and the league thunderfucked him yesterday while simultaneously running cover for Baltimore. Fuck that noise. Of course, this probably won’t happen because nobody fears the NFLPA, but whatever. Word to the wise, strong unions make for better workplaces, I'm just sayin.
With regard to the Saints, honestly, I don’t know what you can even take from that game. That Hill isn’t the guy? Can you really say that after only two weeks under center? Would I be starting the guy, no, but he’s also 2-0 or 1-and-a-gimme, so what do I know. Really all I know is that the league gave them a freebie. So, good for them.
I do know I bet that Raiders/Falcons over and I did learn a tiny little thing from the game. No, not that you need two teams to get to an over, we knew that. I learned that Atlanta has been steadily getting better every week since they fired Dan Quinn. They’re playing for Morris and, much to my chagrin, their defense is steadily improving.
I personally find this to be bullshit, because I like my semi-bad teams to be like the Lions. Give up a ton of points, score a lot of points late, fly over the total, make me money. It’s not that difficult. Except apparently it is for some teams. And fuck those teams. They’re just being selfish, like BAR in bed. If ever there was a king of 'Hey, I owe ya one,’ it’s that guy.
Oooh, the Lions. Thank you for being awful, losing, and covering the total easy on Turkey Day, boys. I really appreciate it. Weird thing is, I don’t think this coaching change has much of an impact, to be honest. Is it going to make Stafford better? Is it going to make their secondary better? I don’t see it. I’m still looking to bet their overs at home.
Coming out of that game, one thing to note, the Texans now lose Will Fuller for the rest of the season because he’s been juicing the mango—as they call it down south. Which is frustrating because I like Houston’s ability to put up points at home and this limits that.
More injury notes that I think matter:
Congrats to everyone who felt like Cincy would step up with the loss of Burrow. They did. At least enough to cover (but not win, thank god). I’m not totally convinced that happens if Jones stays in there by the way. But what I’m more convinced of is that was their one Do It For The Gipper game. Now they can let the bottom fall out.
Now the Giants now end up in the exact place Cincy was last week—except they’re on the road. This is a terrible spot and they’re just lucky Seattle doesn’t have any fans. I do expect the Giants to put up a fight, because they were coming together, but much like Cincy, it was their QB who was really driving the improvement. But without Jones, you’re asking a ton from a team that doesn’t have many weapons, against a team that’s really getting it together at the right time.
Speaking of Seattle, getting Carson back at RB is big. You saw it tonight. They’re just so much more balanced. They’re kind of like Indy if Rivers was, you know, good.
Also on the injury front, if you watched (or, like me, bet on) Dallas on Thanksgiving, you watched as that shitty team lost two of its starting offensive linemen in the first quarter. Don’t tell me his is going to be something an Andy Dalton led team is going to overcome. I won’t believe you. In part because, honestly, that defense is not great. So, I’d check that injury report, but if they’re still thin on the OL, I’d be really willing to go against this team. Of course, now they go to Baltimore—at some point, to play a team that will be starting God knows who at what position. So there’s that.
But maybe when Baltimore finally plays Pittsburgh on like Friday night, they can lose by two TDs and we can get them at like -3 vs. Dallas.
Washington? They matchup great vs. Dallas. You saw it in their first game, you saw it again on Turkey Day. Now they'll get to play an actual team, although with how fucked up Pitt's schedule is, and with what I imagine will be like a -10 out there, it's probably a pass. Or a tease. Joe loves a good tease.
I could talk about Cleveland, but they are who you think they are and it showed on Sunday. Which is to say, they’re better than Jax and really should have covered that game. But Baker is not a very good NFL QB at this point. Their running game, however, is good, and that’s more than enough to beat a 1-47 team like Jax. Also, although I was against them in this game, I kind of think next week sets up nicely for them. Tennessee is a better class of football team, but they’re both probably just going to run the ball a lot. That should keep it close unless Baker decides to take the dog behind the woodshed and treat it like a prostitute. But Tenny is coming off two huge road games, they can say whatever they like, but to me coming home here against a team they fully expect to beat screams let-down spot.
Speaking of matchups, one that bit me this weekend was SF vs. the Rams. San Fran is starting to get their defense back together after injuries and that team knows how to play the Rams. I figured it wouldn’t matter in terms of getting the straight-up win, but I was wrong. Matchups, man, matchups.
Living in Vegas, the interesting thing to me about the Raiders is how much the local press have bought into this team being really good. They’re really average. They’re built to beat KC (ahem, matchups), but outside of KC, look at their games. Their last quality win was in Week 2 which happened to be their very first game in Vegas. They’ll get it together and beat the Jets, in part I imagine because the Jets at this point are pretty much openly tanking and I doubt Derek Carr turns the ball over another 12 times in one game—but hey, it’s Derek Carr so you never can tell. Exciting!
Oh, also, speaking of the Raiders, I heard on local radio today that they don’t expect Josh Jacobs’ injury to be significant and that he might play this week. Which is good news. Rooting for people to be hurt makes you a bad person. Unless it's Jared Kushner, fuck that guy.
Staying in the AFC West, KC is clearly the best team in the league. Also, Cap pretty much sums them up above. They could have put 40 on TB, they just didn't want to. They’re just that good. And even though their defense isn’t great, we’re now living in the age where a great offense beats a very good defense almost every time. Which is me bastardizing a Nick Saban quote if I’m not mistaken.
Tom Brady is who you think he is. Much like how Carson Wentz got shit on (and rightly so) all during MNF for not being able to throw downfield, Tom just ain’t getting that done any more. In fairness, Wentz ‘can’ throw the ball downfield, right now he just doesn’t have clue where he’s throwing it. Which is a different problem. But TB being limited in that way really limits the offense. I should also say, I heard a stat yesterday about how QBs in their first year under Bruce Arians always struggle and if you really step back, Brady's QB rating really isn't that bad. So the expectation is that 'next' year, may be the year you want to look at the Bucs. Of course, can Brady QB an NFL team and be on Social Security at the same time? STAY TUNED TO FIND OUT.
The one good thing about Philly this year is that defense has a ton of heart. OK, I’d like to say it’s the only good thing about them, except I love their running back corps and Travis Fulgham makes me a happy human. But the broadcast booth did make a good point during the game, the Eagles are broken and their coaching staff needs to sit down with their front office, accept that premise, and start the rebuild. Also, there was a point at which they tried to make it seem like everybody believes in Wentz and that he's just a great guy. Which is hilarious because I've heard from people dating back to his college days that he's a complete asshole, totally entitled, and a real dick. But we're supposed to worship our QBs as the pinnacle of human beingness, I guess. You know, unless they're Black and have opinions about things other than football. In which case, well, you know.
I like Tampa, maybe more than most because a lot of people seem to have dramatically overestimated how good this team would be this year. They’re fine. They’re just not top tier. In fact, I’d kind of like to see them play GB again because I do think GB and NO are the class of the NFC and GB really got embarrassed by TB. I could use a rematch.
What else. I had Minny, which I still maintain was the right side. You can’t cap a ton of turnovers and you certainly can’t cap two defensive turnovers in eight seconds. Even though they didn’t lose outright, part of me thinks Minny is a good play again this week. They escaped, I’m sure they know it. And I think that gives you life. You see it like a second chance at saving the season. And now you’re at home, against a bad Jax team, and a win gets them back to 6-6? I’d look at the injuries, see if Thelin and Cook are good to go, then give it a hard look.
That’s about it, really. I still like Arizona provided they can keep getting back to full health, this spot was bad. I don’t really like NE, I just think this spot was good. Carolina can eat a dick and enjoy their week off. And Pittsburgh, shit, does that team even play football any more? Has anybody even heard from them?