Week 12 NFL Upset Alert: It's The Chargers' Time To Shine
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Panthers On The Road
Carolina's 0-5 SU road record might tempt bettors into investing in the Titans at home.
But the Panthers haven't had many fair fights.
On the road, they had to face Seattle, Detroit, and Miami, all of which are playoff-caliber teams.
It would be ridiculous to dismiss their chances of winning in Tennessee because they had to face difficult teams and therefore accumulated a poor road record.
Besides those teams, they lost 24-10 in Atlanta and, on November 9, 16-13 in Chicago.
They actually outgained Atlanta 281-221, possessing the ball for almost ten more minutes than the Falcons did.
Thus, in both road games against losing teams, they have been highly competitive.
The Titans Are Struggling
Blatantly a losing team on the season, Tennessee comes into this game having been outscored 54-20 in its last two games, which it lost to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, respectively.
While both games took place on the road, they still represent a decline in Tennessee's quality of play relative to its earlier games when they were competitive in New Orleans and in Indianapolis.
Among other things, Tennessee's shape-shifting offensive line is creating problems for itself in pass protection and run-blocking.
Will Levis
Titans' quarterback Will Levis made a splash in his rookie debut on October 29.
While his performance on that day against Atlanta may suggest that he is stronger at home, the reality is that he benefited from the timing of that game.
It was the first game after the bye week, and head coach Mike Vrabel is notorious for having his Titans play well after a bye week.
After playing the Falcons, his passer rating was an awful 66.4 in Pittsburgh and 53.3 in Tampa Bay.
The Steelers rank 23rd in pass defense while Tampa Bay ranks 31st.
Especially in view of the poor pass defense rankings of his more opponents, it seems much more likely to me that, since his performance against Atlanta, defensive coordinators have figured out how to deal with Levis than that Levis morphs into a strong quarterback at home.
While Levis' passer rating in Jacksonville improved, he barely threw for any yards despite benefiting from garbage time -- he threw both of his touchdowns at times when his team was down 27 points.
Throughout the game, Levis missed open receivers. He also committed critical mistakes, including losing a fumble and taking a bad sack on third down.
According to metrics, he now ranks 35th in accuracy rating and 34th in true completion percentage.
Despite returning to Nashville, he won't morph into a great quarterback, especially against Carolina's sixth-ranked pass defense.
Bryce Young
In order for Carolina to win, its quarterback will need to be better than Tennessee's.
Since leading his team to a win over Houston -- his passer rating was an excellent 103.6 in this game -- he had to face good and improving pass defenses.
Tennessee's pass defense, however, is anything but "good" or "improving."
Before allowing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to have one of his best games of his season, the Titans allowed Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence to flourish with his best game of the season.
Quarterbacks are easily efficient and productive when they face the Titans, whose underperforming front seven and porous secondary pose a weak challenge for opposing offenses.
On the season, Tennessee is the second-worst team at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +160 with Bet365
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Jacksonville's Suspect Pass Defense
Consider the seven games in which Jacksonville allowed 21 or fewer points.
The quarterbacks in those games were: Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew for the Colts, Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs, Desmond Ridder for Atlanta, Josh Allen for Buffalo, Kenny Pickett for Pittsburgh, and Will Levis for Tennessee.
Now, Mahomes and Allen are good quarterbacks, but Mahomes' pass offense suffers from awful wide receiver play and Allen had to travel to London where the Jaguars had already played a game.
Allen, like Pickett, was under an offensive coordinator who was so bad that he is now fired.
Richardson was making his NFL debut, Minshew and Levis are backup quarterbacks, Ridder and Pickett are among the NFL's worst starting quarterbacks.
I am worried about Jacksonville because of the outputs that the other quarterbacks they faced were able to achieve: Mahomes, Allen, Houston's CJ Stroud, New Orleans' Derek Carr, and San Francisco's Brock Purdy were all efficient and threw for close to or even much more than 300 yards.
All of those quarterbacks besides Carr achieved a passer rating above their season average.
The takeaway from this is that Stroud is just one good quarterback out of many who can reliably thrive against Jacksonville's defense.
Houston After Week 2
While Houston has had lapses, those took place on the road.
Stroud is evidently still learning to win more reliably on the road, although his team just upset Cincinnati in the Bengals' venue.
The Texans enter Sunday's game on a three-game win streak, a four-game home winning streak, and a run of six wins in their last eight games.
Considering Houston's Defense
Their defense is admittedly inconsistent -- they stymied Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, for example, but struggled with Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield.
The thing is: if Houston's defense plays well on Sunday, then it will win all the easier.
But if its defense has one of its off days, then Stroud has proven to be comfortable winning a shootout-type games -- see the Texans' wins over Tampa Bay and Cincinnati as recent examples.
Whereas Stroud has thrown for over 330 yards in three straight games, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 300 yards all of one time this season.
Even if his team miraculously avoids committing the frustrating red zone turnovers that have plagued them since last season, Lawrence isn't going to drive his team down the field as easily as Stroud.
Houston will win because its offense will have an easier time scoring.
Best Bet: Texans +1.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Texans ML at +105 with Bet365
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:20 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles
The Chargers' Defensive Weakness
The Chargers are weakest against the pass.
Their loss to Green Bay last week offers one piece of evidence: they limited running back AJ Dillon to 29 rushing yards on 14 carries but allowed quarterback Jordan Love to achieve his season-high in passing yards.
To beat the Chargers, it is imperative to pass the ball well.
Baltimore, the favored team, will need to pass well in order to score enough points.
Lamar Jackson
However, Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson will miss his favorite target, tight end Mark Andrews, to injury.
In Week 1, without Andrews, Jackson mustered 169 passing yards and an interception against Houston.
Even with Andrews, Jackson rarely puts together strong passing performances.
While he passed well last week, his passer rating always plummets in games following one in which his passer rating was over 100.
For example, he thrived in Cleveland on October 1 before suffering a 65.2 passer rating on October 8 in Pittsburgh.
The Spot
Jackson's poor performance on October 8 represents a larger trend.
Baltimore has lost five of its last six games following a win against a division opponent.
Going with a lot of emotion into its division games, the Ravens struggle to compose themselves after a win.
Late-Game Situations
Defensively, the Ravens also struggle to compose themselves in late-game situations.
They allowed, for example, Indianapolis' Gardner Minshew to lead his team to a game-tying field goal toward the end of the fourth quarter. The Colts then won in overtime.
Baltimore similarly lost late to Pittsburgh when Kenny Pickett came through, and the Ravens also choked away a late 14-point lead to Cleveland.
If they lead late, the Ravens will have to worry about a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is far superior to the likes of Pickett and Minshew.
Hungry To Win
Led by Herbert, the Chargers are extra focused after two-game losing streaks.
Since the start of Herbert's second season, the Chargers are 6-0 SU in games that followed a two-game losing streak.
In each game, Herbert achieved a passer rating of 109 or higher.
Especially in this spot, the Chargers are primed to win without needing to be clutch late in the game.
Best Bet: Chargers +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Chargers ML at +155 with Bet365
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Panthers On The Road
Carolina's 0-5 SU road record might tempt bettors into investing in the Titans at home.
But the Panthers haven't had many fair fights.
On the road, they had to face Seattle, Detroit, and Miami, all of which are playoff-caliber teams.
It would be ridiculous to dismiss their chances of winning in Tennessee because they had to face difficult teams and therefore accumulated a poor road record.
Besides those teams, they lost 24-10 in Atlanta and, on November 9, 16-13 in Chicago.
They actually outgained Atlanta 281-221, possessing the ball for almost ten more minutes than the Falcons did.
Thus, in both road games against losing teams, they have been highly competitive.
The Titans Are Struggling
Blatantly a losing team on the season, Tennessee comes into this game having been outscored 54-20 in its last two games, which it lost to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, respectively.
While both games took place on the road, they still represent a decline in Tennessee's quality of play relative to its earlier games when they were competitive in New Orleans and in Indianapolis.
Among other things, Tennessee's shape-shifting offensive line is creating problems for itself in pass protection and run-blocking.
Will Levis
Titans' quarterback Will Levis made a splash in his rookie debut on October 29.
While his performance on that day against Atlanta may suggest that he is stronger at home, the reality is that he benefited from the timing of that game.
It was the first game after the bye week, and head coach Mike Vrabel is notorious for having his Titans play well after a bye week.
After playing the Falcons, his passer rating was an awful 66.4 in Pittsburgh and 53.3 in Tampa Bay.
The Steelers rank 23rd in pass defense while Tampa Bay ranks 31st.
Especially in view of the poor pass defense rankings of his more opponents, it seems much more likely to me that, since his performance against Atlanta, defensive coordinators have figured out how to deal with Levis than that Levis morphs into a strong quarterback at home.
While Levis' passer rating in Jacksonville improved, he barely threw for any yards despite benefiting from garbage time -- he threw both of his touchdowns at times when his team was down 27 points.
Throughout the game, Levis missed open receivers. He also committed critical mistakes, including losing a fumble and taking a bad sack on third down.
According to metrics, he now ranks 35th in accuracy rating and 34th in true completion percentage.
Despite returning to Nashville, he won't morph into a great quarterback, especially against Carolina's sixth-ranked pass defense.
Bryce Young
In order for Carolina to win, its quarterback will need to be better than Tennessee's.
Since leading his team to a win over Houston -- his passer rating was an excellent 103.6 in this game -- he had to face good and improving pass defenses.
Tennessee's pass defense, however, is anything but "good" or "improving."
Before allowing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to have one of his best games of his season, the Titans allowed Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence to flourish with his best game of the season.
Quarterbacks are easily efficient and productive when they face the Titans, whose underperforming front seven and porous secondary pose a weak challenge for opposing offenses.
On the season, Tennessee is the second-worst team at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Panthers ML at +160 with Bet365
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Jacksonville's Suspect Pass Defense
Consider the seven games in which Jacksonville allowed 21 or fewer points.
The quarterbacks in those games were: Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew for the Colts, Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs, Desmond Ridder for Atlanta, Josh Allen for Buffalo, Kenny Pickett for Pittsburgh, and Will Levis for Tennessee.
Now, Mahomes and Allen are good quarterbacks, but Mahomes' pass offense suffers from awful wide receiver play and Allen had to travel to London where the Jaguars had already played a game.
Allen, like Pickett, was under an offensive coordinator who was so bad that he is now fired.
Richardson was making his NFL debut, Minshew and Levis are backup quarterbacks, Ridder and Pickett are among the NFL's worst starting quarterbacks.
I am worried about Jacksonville because of the outputs that the other quarterbacks they faced were able to achieve: Mahomes, Allen, Houston's CJ Stroud, New Orleans' Derek Carr, and San Francisco's Brock Purdy were all efficient and threw for close to or even much more than 300 yards.
All of those quarterbacks besides Carr achieved a passer rating above their season average.
The takeaway from this is that Stroud is just one good quarterback out of many who can reliably thrive against Jacksonville's defense.
Houston After Week 2
While Houston has had lapses, those took place on the road.
Stroud is evidently still learning to win more reliably on the road, although his team just upset Cincinnati in the Bengals' venue.
The Texans enter Sunday's game on a three-game win streak, a four-game home winning streak, and a run of six wins in their last eight games.
Considering Houston's Defense
Their defense is admittedly inconsistent -- they stymied Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, for example, but struggled with Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield.
The thing is: if Houston's defense plays well on Sunday, then it will win all the easier.
But if its defense has one of its off days, then Stroud has proven to be comfortable winning a shootout-type games -- see the Texans' wins over Tampa Bay and Cincinnati as recent examples.
Whereas Stroud has thrown for over 330 yards in three straight games, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 300 yards all of one time this season.
Even if his team miraculously avoids committing the frustrating red zone turnovers that have plagued them since last season, Lawrence isn't going to drive his team down the field as easily as Stroud.
Houston will win because its offense will have an easier time scoring.
Best Bet: Texans +1.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Texans ML at +105 with Bet365
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:20 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles
The Chargers' Defensive Weakness
The Chargers are weakest against the pass.
Their loss to Green Bay last week offers one piece of evidence: they limited running back AJ Dillon to 29 rushing yards on 14 carries but allowed quarterback Jordan Love to achieve his season-high in passing yards.
To beat the Chargers, it is imperative to pass the ball well.
Baltimore, the favored team, will need to pass well in order to score enough points.
Lamar Jackson
However, Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson will miss his favorite target, tight end Mark Andrews, to injury.
In Week 1, without Andrews, Jackson mustered 169 passing yards and an interception against Houston.
Even with Andrews, Jackson rarely puts together strong passing performances.
While he passed well last week, his passer rating always plummets in games following one in which his passer rating was over 100.
For example, he thrived in Cleveland on October 1 before suffering a 65.2 passer rating on October 8 in Pittsburgh.
The Spot
Jackson's poor performance on October 8 represents a larger trend.
Baltimore has lost five of its last six games following a win against a division opponent.
Going with a lot of emotion into its division games, the Ravens struggle to compose themselves after a win.
Late-Game Situations
Defensively, the Ravens also struggle to compose themselves in late-game situations.
They allowed, for example, Indianapolis' Gardner Minshew to lead his team to a game-tying field goal toward the end of the fourth quarter. The Colts then won in overtime.
Baltimore similarly lost late to Pittsburgh when Kenny Pickett came through, and the Ravens also choked away a late 14-point lead to Cleveland.
If they lead late, the Ravens will have to worry about a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is far superior to the likes of Pickett and Minshew.
Hungry To Win
Led by Herbert, the Chargers are extra focused after two-game losing streaks.
Since the start of Herbert's second season, the Chargers are 6-0 SU in games that followed a two-game losing streak.
In each game, Herbert achieved a passer rating of 109 or higher.
Especially in this spot, the Chargers are primed to win without needing to be clutch late in the game.
Best Bet: Chargers +3.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Chargers ML at +155 with Bet365
