D-Woww
Old Man Dan
0-3 last week has put a damper on my hot start. I post my column here, but if you can just click the link first so my buddy gets hits on his site it would be much appreciated:
http://phillyfastbreak.com/avoiding-the-red-zone-week-12-nfl-wagers/
Every guy has a friend who is dating or has dated a girl that something just doesn’t quite seem right about. She’s pretty, she’s nice, she has no issue with your late-night benders and trips to the strip clubs. She knows guys have to be guys. She’s polite, she gets along with his group of friends instantly, yet there’s just something off about her. On the surface, you have to be happy for your friend, because there is no legitimate reason not to be. But just being around this girl, you have the craziest feeling that she has a collection of hair locks from all of her exes, or a husband in Ohio, or maybe she looks freakishly like a lady you saw on pornhub the week before. You know, when you accidentally entered that site.
The Detroit Lions are that girl. They have a top-tier quarterback, a two-headed monster at running back, the best receiver of this generation, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense. Yet something is just not right. The offense doesn’t move the ball the way it should for long periods of time, and then will score 24 points in six minutes. The defense, that boasts a nasty front 7, fails to get the job done in big spots. But rather than a past career in snuff films, the Lions’ dark, dirty secret is that they have a steaming pile of dog crap for a head coach.
When he’s not making headlines for starting fights with other coaches during the post-game handshake, Jim Schwartz is holding his team down the way J-Lo did Ben Affleck during the Bennifer years. This guy makes moronic decision after moronic decision, and on Sunday, it cumulated with his worst offense yet. The Lions were up by four points in the fourth quarter after dominating the game up until that point. However, aside from 27 points in the second quarter, the offense was unable to extend the lead. But that was about to change, because the Lions were a chip shot field goal away from making the Steelers need a touchdown to remain in the game. It was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and 5 deep in Steeler territory.
I often praise coaches for having balls, and rip coaches for being conservative. But there is a huge difference between having balls and being stupid, and Schwartz’s decision to fake the field goal, which ultimately led to a fumble (go figure a punter is prone to fumbling when crushed by a linebacker) and the Steelers getting the ball back, is one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make. You kick the field goal there, and make it so a Steelers touchdown only ties the game. And if they do score a touchdown, there would still be plenty of time to mount a game winning drive, needing only a field goal for the win. Worst case is overtime. There is no scenario there that leads to a loss in regulation.
You know the rest: the Steelers scored a touchdown, then the Lions offense had to panic since they were down by three instead of tied, and ended up throwing an interception that led to another touchdown. My bet went into the toilet, along with my other two for the week, and the regression I said was coming reared its ugly head. Unless an amazing spot comes up, I will be staying away from Detroit from here on out, and you can thank their coach for that.
I’m now sitting at 28-16-2 on the year, and need a big week. Thankfully, I love this card. Before I start bitching about the Cleveland loss (one of the worst losses ever, Cleveland should have been in the game, let alone within 16 points, but I’ll save that rant for the podcast), let’s get to the Week 12 plays:
Teaser: New Orleans -2/Dallas +8.5
I can’t see the Saints not destroying the Falcons, who have quit on the season. Yes, New Orleans has experienced issues on the road, but they get to stay indoors in Atlanta. I’m not going to lay a large number, as Thursday games tend to be ugly, but teased down to -2 looks solid. The Cowboys have first place on the line, and even though the Giants are fired up for the game, and look to go on one of their crazy late-season playoff runs, they are still less talented than the Cowboys. These teams always play close games, so even if the Giants pull it out, I don’t see it being by more than a touchdown.
Cleveland -2 vs. Pittsburgh
Maybe I’m stubborn, but I am not buying the Steelers as a changed team. Coming off back-to-back home wins, they are going to have trouble traveling to Cleveland, who did not play as bad as the numbers say last week. Their defense is still solid, and held A.J. Green to two catches (Editor’s Note: Thanks Joe Haden, I was facing Green in a huge fantasy matchup last week). I don’t see where Pittsburgh will get its offense once Antonio Brown is taken out of the equation. Cleveland crapped the bed in their chance last week to really make themselves known as a playoff contender, but I still say that two blocked punts, a lost fumble, and three interceptions are more of a fluke than the norm. Browns take care of business, and with Cincinnati having a tough three games coming up, they know they still do have a chance to make a run at the division. (Editor’s Note: I have to say, I like that you’re picking these two teams to ‘zag’ from their Week 11 performances. That’s often how these things work.)
St. Louis -1 vs. Chicago
I think a lot of public bettors are going to look at this line and pound the Bears, due to their record and the perception that the Rams are a bad team. But I’m going to take the home team with a very good running game against an atrocious run defense, and Josh McCown on the road. I’ll give the dude credit, it’s great that he has played so well and kept the Bears alive. But this is Josh McCown here, he is what he is, and he’s not a Pro Bowl quarterback overnight. The Rams are finally using their big weapons. Tavon Austin and Zac Stacy should both have monster games against a Bears defense that has made guys like Brandon Jacobs and Ray Rice look like Pro Bowlers (Editor’s Note: This is a much more scathing remark about Ray Rice than the Bears defense). If you really dissect the Rams so far, you’ll find that they might not be as bad as you think.
Miami +4.5 vs. Carolina
Yeah, we all saw the Panthers beat the Patriots on MNF. That was enough to get some value in fading them this week in what is really a tough matchup. First off, the Dolphins have lost by more than three twice all year, at New Orleans and at New England, both far from easy matchups. The Panthers aren’t a team that blows teams out either (unless you’re the Giants). The Dolphins are right in the playoff race still, and in the wake of the Incognito-Martin bullying scandal, I think the team bands together to make a late-season push. At the very least, it stays close. Add to the fact that it’s a let-down spot for the Panthers, and I really like the points.
Arizona -0.5 vs. Indianapolis
Don’t look now, but Arizona is 6-4 and playing very good football. They match up very well with the Colts and in the Colts’ last three games, they have been trailing at the half by scores of 21-3, 28-0 and 17-6. I’m going to avoid any chance of late-game Andrew Luck magic ruining my bet, so this will be a first half bet only and not a full game one.
That’s all for this week. I do like this card a lot, especially now that I need a good showing to get back on track. One last reminder, I post props on Twitter before games, and they did go 6-0 last week, so it wasn’t all bad. Follow me @DanUrda for prop bets right around noon on Sunday.
NFL Record Year-to-Date: 28-16-2 (63.6%)
http://phillyfastbreak.com/avoiding-the-red-zone-week-12-nfl-wagers/
Every guy has a friend who is dating or has dated a girl that something just doesn’t quite seem right about. She’s pretty, she’s nice, she has no issue with your late-night benders and trips to the strip clubs. She knows guys have to be guys. She’s polite, she gets along with his group of friends instantly, yet there’s just something off about her. On the surface, you have to be happy for your friend, because there is no legitimate reason not to be. But just being around this girl, you have the craziest feeling that she has a collection of hair locks from all of her exes, or a husband in Ohio, or maybe she looks freakishly like a lady you saw on pornhub the week before. You know, when you accidentally entered that site.
The Detroit Lions are that girl. They have a top-tier quarterback, a two-headed monster at running back, the best receiver of this generation, and a solid, if not spectacular, defense. Yet something is just not right. The offense doesn’t move the ball the way it should for long periods of time, and then will score 24 points in six minutes. The defense, that boasts a nasty front 7, fails to get the job done in big spots. But rather than a past career in snuff films, the Lions’ dark, dirty secret is that they have a steaming pile of dog crap for a head coach.
When he’s not making headlines for starting fights with other coaches during the post-game handshake, Jim Schwartz is holding his team down the way J-Lo did Ben Affleck during the Bennifer years. This guy makes moronic decision after moronic decision, and on Sunday, it cumulated with his worst offense yet. The Lions were up by four points in the fourth quarter after dominating the game up until that point. However, aside from 27 points in the second quarter, the offense was unable to extend the lead. But that was about to change, because the Lions were a chip shot field goal away from making the Steelers need a touchdown to remain in the game. It was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and 5 deep in Steeler territory.
I often praise coaches for having balls, and rip coaches for being conservative. But there is a huge difference between having balls and being stupid, and Schwartz’s decision to fake the field goal, which ultimately led to a fumble (go figure a punter is prone to fumbling when crushed by a linebacker) and the Steelers getting the ball back, is one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make. You kick the field goal there, and make it so a Steelers touchdown only ties the game. And if they do score a touchdown, there would still be plenty of time to mount a game winning drive, needing only a field goal for the win. Worst case is overtime. There is no scenario there that leads to a loss in regulation.
You know the rest: the Steelers scored a touchdown, then the Lions offense had to panic since they were down by three instead of tied, and ended up throwing an interception that led to another touchdown. My bet went into the toilet, along with my other two for the week, and the regression I said was coming reared its ugly head. Unless an amazing spot comes up, I will be staying away from Detroit from here on out, and you can thank their coach for that.
I’m now sitting at 28-16-2 on the year, and need a big week. Thankfully, I love this card. Before I start bitching about the Cleveland loss (one of the worst losses ever, Cleveland should have been in the game, let alone within 16 points, but I’ll save that rant for the podcast), let’s get to the Week 12 plays:
Teaser: New Orleans -2/Dallas +8.5
I can’t see the Saints not destroying the Falcons, who have quit on the season. Yes, New Orleans has experienced issues on the road, but they get to stay indoors in Atlanta. I’m not going to lay a large number, as Thursday games tend to be ugly, but teased down to -2 looks solid. The Cowboys have first place on the line, and even though the Giants are fired up for the game, and look to go on one of their crazy late-season playoff runs, they are still less talented than the Cowboys. These teams always play close games, so even if the Giants pull it out, I don’t see it being by more than a touchdown.
Cleveland -2 vs. Pittsburgh
Maybe I’m stubborn, but I am not buying the Steelers as a changed team. Coming off back-to-back home wins, they are going to have trouble traveling to Cleveland, who did not play as bad as the numbers say last week. Their defense is still solid, and held A.J. Green to two catches (Editor’s Note: Thanks Joe Haden, I was facing Green in a huge fantasy matchup last week). I don’t see where Pittsburgh will get its offense once Antonio Brown is taken out of the equation. Cleveland crapped the bed in their chance last week to really make themselves known as a playoff contender, but I still say that two blocked punts, a lost fumble, and three interceptions are more of a fluke than the norm. Browns take care of business, and with Cincinnati having a tough three games coming up, they know they still do have a chance to make a run at the division. (Editor’s Note: I have to say, I like that you’re picking these two teams to ‘zag’ from their Week 11 performances. That’s often how these things work.)
St. Louis -1 vs. Chicago
I think a lot of public bettors are going to look at this line and pound the Bears, due to their record and the perception that the Rams are a bad team. But I’m going to take the home team with a very good running game against an atrocious run defense, and Josh McCown on the road. I’ll give the dude credit, it’s great that he has played so well and kept the Bears alive. But this is Josh McCown here, he is what he is, and he’s not a Pro Bowl quarterback overnight. The Rams are finally using their big weapons. Tavon Austin and Zac Stacy should both have monster games against a Bears defense that has made guys like Brandon Jacobs and Ray Rice look like Pro Bowlers (Editor’s Note: This is a much more scathing remark about Ray Rice than the Bears defense). If you really dissect the Rams so far, you’ll find that they might not be as bad as you think.
Miami +4.5 vs. Carolina
Yeah, we all saw the Panthers beat the Patriots on MNF. That was enough to get some value in fading them this week in what is really a tough matchup. First off, the Dolphins have lost by more than three twice all year, at New Orleans and at New England, both far from easy matchups. The Panthers aren’t a team that blows teams out either (unless you’re the Giants). The Dolphins are right in the playoff race still, and in the wake of the Incognito-Martin bullying scandal, I think the team bands together to make a late-season push. At the very least, it stays close. Add to the fact that it’s a let-down spot for the Panthers, and I really like the points.
Arizona -0.5 vs. Indianapolis
Don’t look now, but Arizona is 6-4 and playing very good football. They match up very well with the Colts and in the Colts’ last three games, they have been trailing at the half by scores of 21-3, 28-0 and 17-6. I’m going to avoid any chance of late-game Andrew Luck magic ruining my bet, so this will be a first half bet only and not a full game one.
That’s all for this week. I do like this card a lot, especially now that I need a good showing to get back on track. One last reminder, I post props on Twitter before games, and they did go 6-0 last week, so it wasn’t all bad. Follow me @DanUrda for prop bets right around noon on Sunday.
NFL Record Year-to-Date: 28-16-2 (63.6%)
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