Week 12 plays, leans, and Cincy/Ville

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Week 5: 5-7, -4.57u
Week 6: 7-3, +3.4u
Week 7: 8-2, +5.93u
Week 8: 5-4, +4.03u
Week 9: 6-5-1, -1.1u
Week 10: 6-4, -0.6u
Week 11: 8-2, +8.93u
Straight plays: 61-43-2, +15.8u
Sides: 29-24-1, -1.09u
Game Totals: 32-16-1, +20.34u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-2, -0.6u
Total: 61-45-2, +15.2u

Best single day of my short gambling career. Included my luckiest win ever with the Cincy/WV over. UNLV was also quite lucky.

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 7-2 (win)
Last Week: W 26-23 at West Virginia
Next: at Louisville

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 3-7 (win)
Last Week: L 7-21 at Michigan St.
Next: at Iowa
<!-- sig -->
<!-- / message -->Week 12 plays

Colorado St. PK (1.65u to win 1.5)
Nebraska/Kansas St. UNDER 74 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Ball St./Miami OH UNDER 54.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Miami OH +19 (1.1u to win 1)
Purdue/Iowa Over 43.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Week 12 leans (bolded leans are stronger)

Central Michigan +3
Minnesota +13.5
Notre Dame -3
Oregon -3.5
South Carolina +22
Idaho +34 - I made this almost a TD lower
Stanford +23
San Diego St. +28


GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
RJ Esq said:
What's the thought on Cincy -4? I made you guys a TD fav.
Click to expand...

I made it a PK'em or Cincy -1. Don't like this spot for the Cats.

First, all the pressure is on Cincy here:

- They know they control their own destiny concerning the Big East and a BCS game with these next three games. A lot of seniors on this team (starting D is basically all seniors), and this is their last chace to do something big.

- Nationally televised road game.

- Hangover from West Va. and just a general letdown spot as they enter the top 25 for the first time.

I think on the surface, it looks like Cincy's D matches up well because run D is Cincy's strength. However, I'm a little worried here.

Cincinnati's team defense is built around speed, which is why I felt they match-up well against a team like West Virginia and their running scheme. The Cards bring in this straight-ahead, power running game that I think could cause some problems. You could argue that Cincy has yet to face a running team like this all season.

Terrill Byrd is their only true run stopper between the tackles. Their DEs (Barwin, Nelms, Daniels, etc.) are undersized speed guys and therefore good at rushing the QB and chasing down runs to the outside. Louisville won't be doing much of that. I also don't like that they are facing completely different rushing attacks in back to back weeks. Lousiville is the antithesis of WVU in the running game and it could take the Bearcats a little while to adjust.

I also think that Louisville's passing game is just enough to keep Cincy's defense honest. It won't overpower you, but Beaumont/Chichester/Guy are just good enough at WR that you can't just leave Mickens, Smith, and Underwood on an island on every play.

In my opinion, the only part of this Louisville offense that matches up well for Cincy is the fact that Cantwell has no mobility.

Not saying that Lousiville is going to put up 35, but I expect them to put a few drives together.

Lastly, outside of their opener against Kentucky, Louisville hasn't played a bad game at home all season:

vs. Kansas St: W 38-29, 577-343 yardage edge - would have been worse if not for big plays by KSU (all 4 TDs were of 40+ yards). Had 31 1st downs to KSU's 14.

vs. UConn: L 26-21, but outgained them 508-279. Lost TO battle 3-1.

vs. Middle Tenn. St.: W 42-23, 391-306 yardage edge.

vs. South Florida: W 24-20, though they were outgained 352-323.

So, they are running up some yardage at home and their defense plays with more confidence. The most yards they have given up in six home games was 352 (South Florida). They gave up more than that in two of their three road games.

One advantage for Cincy is their pass-based offense. Not only does Lousivlle have a questionable pass defense (225 ypg - I think this is 75th in the nation or so), but they have also faced mostly run based teams all year (Syrcause, Pittsburgh, UConn, etc.).

Either way, I expect it to be close.
 
cubsker said:
i lean csu too. need to look into a bit more, but that did catch my eye.
Click to expand...

CSU has been playing better as the season has progressed. Garfather made a great point in his blog. With the UNLV loss, UNM is now out of bowl contention, while CSU is still fighting for a spot. Motivation difference here as well.
 
I can't believe Minney is getting 14 points this week to Wisconsin.
 
The more I see Cincy play, the more I'm already loving my future bet on Cincy -4 @ Hawaii at the end of the season.

Even IF it's a rather meaningless game, I still think Cincy wins on the Island by 10+...just a better team in every phase of the game, with a far superior head coach in Kelly.

I know that was a rather meaningless little rant, but...just wanted to give your Bearcats props...they're playing some solid football right now.

Leaning to CSU myself. GL this week Dmoney!

:cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
CSU has been playing better as the season has progressed. Garfather made a great point in his blog. With the UNLV loss, UNM is now out of bowl contention, while CSU is still fighting for a spot. Motivation difference here as well.
Click to expand...

I agree, I'm on them at -1.
 
Added:

Nebraska/Kansas St. UNDER 74 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Ball St./Miami OH UNDER 54.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Miami OH +19 (1.1u to win 1)
 
Dmoney - I know SDSU covered last week against BYU, but no way do they score more than 10 against Utah. I'd be very wary of taking the Aztecs +28, even with BYU on deck for the Utes. Situationally, it's a bad spot for Utah...but SDSU is THAT bad.
 
yeah ... and how easy will it feel to move the ball on that defense after playing against the tcu monster ... everything is going to seem nice and slow to the utes in that game.

i have no opinion but i dont like to go against quality teams that struggled offensively vs a really good defense the next week when they play a pop warner team
 
vegaskyle said:
yeah ... and how easy will it feel to move the ball on that defense after playing against the tcu monster ... everything is going to seem nice and slow to the utes in that game.

i have no opinion but i dont like to go against quality teams that struggled offensively vs a really good defense the next week when they play a pop warner team
Click to expand...

:animated-Dead12:
 
Aztec - I'm laying off SDSU, though I lean that way.

Thanks RJ - deserved to lose both with the way Ball St. moved the ball, but I'll take it.

Added:

Purdue/Iowa Over 43.5 (1.1u to win 1)


Still mulling over a couple and could add them later.
 
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