Week #12 of CFB (11/11-11/15)

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
'08 YTD: 85-75-4, +1.87 units

Last week went fairly well...especially considering how it began, getting hosed on the tcu/utah game. But 9-5 overall, 3+ units to the good...finally bringing me back into the black for the season.
But my first 9 plays, which were made between sunday and wednesday, went a very nice 8-1...with that tcu moose being the only loss. The late addtions, made either thursday or friday night, went a lovely 1-4...with wisky being the only win outta that dreadful bunch. So we'll see if i can finally learn from that (repeated) lesson, and not make a bunch of boneheaded last minute additions this week. Not likely, i know...but i am gonna try to abstain.
Anyhow, it's 2 good weeks in a row...8-5 in week ten, and the 9-5 last week...but as the song says..."one drink ain't enough, jack. you better make it three." And since I tend to agree with that philosophy, it's on to the week twelve slate.


Saturday, 11/15

Oregon (-3) over Arizona (-120) for 2 units

Oregon St (-3) over California (-110) for 1.5 units

Oklahoma St (-17) over Colorado (-120) for 1.5 units

Texas (-13) over Kansas (-110) for 1.5 units

Notre Dame (-3) over Navy (-110) for 1.5 units

Kentucky (-4) over Vanderbilt (-110) for 1 unit

Georgia (-7) over Auburn (-120) for 1 unit

Wisconsin (-13.5) over Minnesota (-110) for 1 unit

Florida St (-7) over Boston College (-110) for 1 unit

Texas A&M/Baylor over 64 (-110) for 1 unit

NC State (+3.5) over Wake Forest (-110) for 1 unit

Air Force (+4) over BYU (-110) for 1 unit


More to come over the remainder of the week. Additions...up to weds nite, lol...as well as my reasonings behind these games/plays.
Not sure if i'll be adding any mid-week games though. As of tonight, i'm not a fan of most of them (2 possible exceptions to that statement though, fwiw, so we shall see). And honestly, i'm not over the tcu crap yet either...and the mid-week games are the ones i tend to get hosed on, for some reason. (See BC's comeback against VaTech last season.)

Anyhow, GL to all this week. :tiphat:
 
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Wrote this last night in RJ's sunday am coffee thread...


<!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> "ND is a revenge spot.
TAMU/Baylor over anything under 70 pts.
Oregon. zona (again) is not a good team on the road. The Ducks will pound it all day long.
Florida should be motivated. They win out, including the SEC champ game over Bama, and they're in the big game.
Okie Lite will roll the Buffs"


Well, i'm not playing Florida. Line's too high for that. Seems to be begging you to take Scary. Gotta look at the game further...but with their defense, it makes you wonder.

And i'll be on that TAMU/Baylor over as well, unless it's set ridiculously high.

Now for what i have played already...


Oregon. Was very happy to see the line move to where i could buy it to a flat 3 pts. Bottom line...as said many times...Zona is not that good of a team, especially on the road. New Mex = embarassing loss. UCLA = win, but only cuz my bruins have absolutely zero on offense. Stanford = loss, and one of my better capped games of the season. Wazzou = win, but lol...28 pts to a high school team...4 rushing TDs allowed, lol again. Anyways, the common demoninator on the road is that you can run all over Zona. New Mex did it, Stanford did it, and even my Bruins put up some decent yards running the ball on Zona. Again, i'm talking Zona on the road...not at home. Big difference this year. Anyways, running the ball is exactly what the Ducks do best. And they'll basically do it at will on Zona this coming saturday...controlling the clock, pounding that inexperienced/young front, and keeping Zona's offense/passing attack off the field. Zona is on the back end of b2b road games...and traveling up to Washington or Oregon from SoCal or AZ is not as short a trip as you think. Oregon is on the back end of b2b home games...with a bye week on deck. Oregon's dominated this series, except for the last 2 years...so there could be some revenge here as well. Anyhow, that's the quick version...more later, on what's a big play for me.


Oregon St. The Beavs have won 7 of the L9 SU over Cal. And it's a major sandwich spot for the Bears. Letdown following the USC game...which tends to happen with Cal...then the Stanford game/rivalry the week following this roadie to Oregon St. But i'm getting (though not by much) the better offense and the better defense...at home...in a favorable situation...so i couldn't resist. That said...i will be watching the injury report here, as both sides may have issues.


Okie Lite. The Cowboys are a great team...the Buffaloes are not. Considering the venue, the defenses may be/play fairly close...though i doubt it...but the offenses sure aren't/won't. Remember sending some texts early this year in the WVU game reagrding the Buffs...and they weren't positive ones, lol. Anyways, big mismatch...and imo, Okie Lite takes out some frustration on a team that cannot stop or match up with them. As long as they have oxygen, the Cowboys should be able to run at will on Colorado...and on defense...well, imo there's not much of a qb to worry about this week.


Texas. More road chalk, lol. But real simple. Better offense, better defense...and a team that's got something to play for/real motivation. But shit...i'd argue that Kansas has only played one decent game all season long...the 11/1 thrashing of Kansas St. Other than that, it hasn't been a good season at all...following up their great run last year. Nothing but unimpressive wins, and the 4 losses of course. Anyways, the texas pass defense worries me only enough to keep this a normal play, lol...but seriously, one guy alone (reesing) will not be able to keep this very average jayhowk team in the game.


Notre Dame. Could this be the mother of all revenge spots, lol? You completely dominate a team since the beginning of time...then, jsut when you're at your lowest point ever as a program, that team (a service academy) completes the embarassment that's your (current) season and actually beats you in front of touchdown jesus and your faithful fans. Well, i don't know about fat charlie or the domers...but i know how i'd be handling things this week.
Then there are other motivating factors too. Navy at 6-3 is already bowl eligible...and they have 2 games after this, including army. Notre Dame at 5-4 however is not yet bowl eligible...and after last year, you know they want to go bowling. So they better win here against Navy, and next week as well against Syracuse, to assure they don't get left out...cuz the only game after these 2 is an ass whooping to USC to close out the year.
Anyhow, huge angles...but back to football. I'll get into it more later...but ND's played a much tougher schedule this year. There's one common opponent in Pitt, who both teams lost to...but look at the boxscores/yards as well there. Running out of gas, so be back later with more here.


:cheers:
 
not all that enamored with the entire slate this week, and will prolly only have a few additions to these original 5 plays...when it's all said and done.

as a result, i added a half unit to each of the four 1 unit plays...bringing them up to my usual high of 1.5 units each...and, for now, leaving the Ducks alone at 2 units...which (amount) i've only done once or twice this season. anyways, the line and juice remains exactly the same for all four games...as nothing's moved from last night.

brief reasonings on all 5 plays are in the post above...but i'll get back later in the week with more on these games. they're definitely the ones i like best out of this week's card.
 
2 (monday nite) additions...

Kentucky (-4)
and
Georgia (-7) @ -120

a unit on each game.


Be back with my reasonings on both of these...as well as more on the first 5 plays.

:tiphat:
 
for those 2 additions...


Kentucky. Fairly equitable defenses in this one, but gotta give the offensive edge to the Wildcats...with a clear edge at QB. Kentucky's owned this series of late, they've got the hf adv, they've got a big advantage in overall health right now, and they have a bye week on deck. The Commodores, on the other hand, have really fallen on hard times. Following their cinderella start, they've now dropped 4 straight...and aren't even a lock to go bowling any more. And in that latest 4 game stretch, the only team they've outgained is Duke. Vandy also has their rivalry game on deck with Tennessee, fwiw. But the bottom line is that Kentucky is simply the better team right now, and they've got a lot more going for them in this game than Vandy does at the moment.

Georgia. The Bulldogs have won the L2 meetings convincingly...and considering Auburn's anemic offense, there's no reason it won't be 3 straight. Gotta give the Tigers the edge on defense...at least in terms of points allowed, and passing yards. But UGA is very equitable against the run. On the offensive side, it's not even close. Auburn can run the ball, jsut not as good as Georgia can...and there's no point in getting into the passing game. One team is successful at it, the other isn't. Anyways, both teams have a bye the following week...then in-state rivalry games after that. But this one (imho) is simple...the very good SEC team will beat the very average SEC team, even on the road, because Auburn will struggle to put up any pts offensively. Their defense can only hold for so long, especially if Georgia's getting short fields to work with. In other words...they're not playing another offensively challenged team like LSU or Tenny or Vandy...where they can hang in the game. Just the opposite, imo.
 
B.A.R. said:
Love the card.

Gonna look at UGA and ND tonight.
Click to expand...


kooky. fwiw, i might add to the UGA play...kinda like the others...if it stays where i can still buy to 7 pts.

also, i have more stuff on the ND game...besides just revenge and those types of angles. should be back online tuesday nite to get into it more...but look at both teams against Pitt, specifically the yardage/boxscores. not a domer fan by any stretch...just feel that navy's overrated/getting too much respect. i only value 1 of their 6 wins this year, and that's the one over wake. rutgers sucked at that point in time, they were severely outgained by air force, and they barely beat temple. just too one-dimensional...and ND will be able to load up the box, and not have to worry about much else. lastly, navy can be thrown on...as many lessor teams have this year...so i expect claussen and those big/talented receivers to have a big day.
 
yanks,

Navy might not cover the game, but I can promise you they aren't overrated...Kettani and White will play in the NFL and this Dobbs kid is really, really talented...remember that many of these kids are Paul Johnson's recruits and with the lack of Notre Dame's running game I see it being a very tough cover for them this week...
 
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pags11 said:
yanks,

Navy might not cover the game, but I can promise you they aren't overrated...Kettani and White will play in the NFL and this Dobbs kid is really, really talented...remember that many of these kids are Paul Johnson's recruites and with the lack of Notre Dame's running game I see it being a very tough cover for them this week...
Click to expand...

i hear you, pags...and i agree on those players...but i guess it's semantics, at least in the (overall) respect i made that statement.
no doubt navy will get some running the ball in this game. just don't think it'll be nearly enough. also, the biggest disparity in this game are the defenses...overall, and especially how poor Navy's (105th rated) pass defense is. no, ND still can't run with much success at all...but they shouldn't have much of a problem thru the air on saturday.



Aztec4Life said:
With you on Tejas, my friend. GL this week!

:cheers:
Click to expand...


ty, sir
 
2 more (tuesday afternoon) additions...

Wisconsin (-13.5)
and
Florida St (-7)

a unit on each game.


Be back later tonight with my reasonings on both of these (latest) additions. Told BAR on the phone last night that i was close on these 2, when i made the Tucky & UGA adds...but finally pulled the trigger today.

Also, still haven't decided whether i'll bump up that UGA play or not. Too many OL issues for the bulldogs...so even though i love the play, i might end up leaving at just the 1 unit. We shall see.

Anyways, lots of favs for me this week...5 at home, and 4 on the road. Gonna have to look for a nice dog now, just to switch things up.
:tiphat:
 
and yet another add...
(see the quote above, from the sunday am coffee thread.)


TAMU/Baylor o64 for a unit


couldn't resist.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
Also, still haven't decided whether i'll bump up that UGA play or not. Too many OL issues for the bulldogs...so even though i love the play, i might end up leaving at just the 1 unit. We shall see.
Click to expand...


Yanks26Sox7 said:
and yet another add...
(see the quote above, from the sunday am coffee thread.)

TAMU/Baylor o64 for a unit

couldn't resist.
Click to expand...



and here it is later tonight, and i'm kicking myself about these 2 quotes above.

while i was worrying about the uga o-line...here comes news of a couple big names out for aubbie this weekend...and the line shoots up to 8.5 pts. had the opportunity to add to this play, but lost it...dammit.

and being semi-quick on this total actually worked against me this time. fucker dropped all the way to 62.5 pts. might be ok though...as the same thing happened with my early # on the tamu/oklahoma total last week. just hate to get the worst of the line like that.

oh well. told myself i'd max out at 10 plays this week, and i'm already there. wonder if i'll have the willpower to make it to saturday...
hell, at least no post-bob adds...and i'll be happy.
 
We're both all chalk this week..lol

Got your text about that UGA line, will just have to ait and hope it comes back..perhaps a bit of Bob magic.
 
yanks,

I respect your thoughts on the game and appear to be in the minority...we can talk about it until we are blue in the face, but ultimately we just have to see how the game plays out on Saturday...GL bud...
 
pags11 said:
yanks,

I respect your thoughts on the game and appear to be in the minority...we can talk about it until we are blue in the face, but ultimately we just have to see how the game plays out on Saturday...GL bud...
Click to expand...


:shake:

yep...and considering how i value your opinion, i admit that u do have me 2nd guessing myself a bit.
good luck this weekend, pags.
 
Well, i finally found a dog...hopefully a nice home doggie at that. In any case, it's yet another (tues late nite) addition...


NCST (+3.5) for a unit


gonna go to bed finally...but i still owe short write-ups on the latest (now 4) additions. wisky, fsu, that tamu/baylor hova, and (now) ncst.

but very quickly...
wisky boils down to the excellent production they've been getting (lately) from the two RBs. they've been a totally different team lately, for many reasons. and see minny last week, for how i can lay these pts.
fsu mostly cuz i like how they've improved...while i really dont' like the bc offense, nor am i a fan of their qb/crane. as long as the noles aren't turning the ball over, they should cover this # easily imo.
dont' see either baylor or tamu putting up less than 30 in this game, and the winner should get into the 40s. soemthing like a 42-35 type game.
ncst is definitely improved of late, covering 6 of their L7, and off a solid game vs duke. wake, despite struggling on offense much of the year, has been pretty solid...but just see this as one of those spots for them. hopefully they're still missing their kicker/swank this week.

anyways, more later...
 
B.A.R. said:
Ha!

There goes the ten and done ;)
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:
10, 11...who's counting? seriously though...unless i get a gift movement from bob tomorrow, i should be done for the weekend.


vegaskyle said:
love ncstate too. nice add.
Click to expand...

ty, sir. see that they were one of your 1st plays. :shake:


pags11 said:
have read no reports that Swank, or Adams for that matter, will be back this week...
Click to expand...

that would be beautiful, pags, to see neither of them this weekend. :shake:
 
BOL, Yanks...my thoughts on Wisconsin have been expressed, and I like like NC St., too, brotha'...
 
yanks,

so reports today have Adams playing, but still no word on Swank (which I believe is good for us NCSU backers)...
 
well...i made it all the way from tuesday nite to very late friday nite w/out making any additions. but that's as far as i made it, cuz i got one more...

AF (+4) for 1 unit

tried real hard to hold firm to the original card...but simply lacked the willpower to succeed. in fact, 5 days ago i actually was leaning byu's way in this one. obviously that's changed over the last few days, for various reasons.

anyways, 12 plays for week 12...2 more than i wanted to limit myself to this week...even though only this AF play was made after tuesday nite.
that said, it's almost 3am pacific...6am east coast...so it's technically a saturday addition after all...and i never said i'd ban those. ;)


GL today, boys & girls :tiphat:
 
fwiw, i'm happy with all the early lines i got...except for 2 games.

of course one of them is FSU. but who would've guessed at all these WR suspensions from a mid-week altercation? but i'm gonna ride that one out, just the same.

the other one is that tamu/baylor over. fucking 5 full pts worse than the current line. don't think that's ever happened to me, in gawd knows how many years i've been doing this. jeebus. :(
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
well...i made it all the way from tuesday nite to very late friday nite w/out making any additions. but that's as far as i made it, cuz i got one more...

AF (+4) for 1 unit

tried real hard to hold firm to the original card...but simply lacked the willpower to succeed. in fact, 5 days ago i actually was leaning byu's way in this one. obviously that's changed over the last few days, for various reasons.

anyways, 12 plays for week 12...2 more than i wanted to limit myself to this week...even though only this AF play was made after tuesday nite.
that said, it's almost 3am pacific...6am east coast...so it's technically a saturday addition after all...and i never said i'd ban those. ;)


GL today, boys & girls :tiphat:
Click to expand...


Same thing with me yanks. leaned byu sunday .. but now i kind of lean afa.


gl this week bud. need you to have a big day because we share a lot of plays.
 
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